Ukraine (International Relations and Defence Committee Report)

Baroness Helic Excerpts

Thursday 6th March 2025 Grand Committee

[Baroness Helic (Con)]

My Lords, I welcome this debate and commend the committee’s excellent, timely and necessary report. If the war in Ukraine has taught us anything, it is that we can no longer afford to rely on others for our security. The United States, once a steadfast ally, is proving unpredictable, to say the least. As the Prime Minister said:

“Europe must do the heavy lifting”.


The burden of deterrence, security and stability falls on us.

I welcome the Prime Minister’s leadership in positioning the United Kingdom as a bridge between America and Europe, as well as the increase in defence spending. However, as the report rightly points out, this is not enough. The lesson from Ukraine is clear: prevention is far cheaper than war. Time and again, from Georgia to Crimea to the Donbass, weak responses from democracies have emboldened rather than deterred aggression. The report rightly emphasises that deterrence is not just a moral imperative but the most cost-effective strategy.

We must act with urgency. Russia, even under sanctions, spends nearly as much on its military as the whole of Europe combined. With a weakening US commitment to security in Europe, we risk being outspent, outgunned and outmanned by a malign power on our doorstep. Strengthening our collective security through the UK-EU defence pact is an imperative. If deeper co-operation can secure the immense benefits of interoperability, intelligence sharing and joint procurement, we must be pragmatic enough to pursue it. In the past, we had the luxury of choice; that choice disappeared in a matter of weeks in February 2025.

However, security is not only about military strength. As the report highlights, winning over the global South, where Russia and China have spread disinformation—very successfully—is crucial. Development aid is not an act of good will, and diplomacy is not a hobby. I strongly hope that the rebalancing under way will not further shrink the FCDO’s budget.

While our focus is rightly on Ukraine, we must not lose sight of another emerging crisis that holds profound strategic importance to us: the western Balkans. If we were to do so, we would shamefully neglect the most important lessons of Ukraine. Before I say more, I take this opportunity to thank the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Peach, for his personal dedication and service in advancing UK interests in the western Balkans over the past three years. The instability of the western Balkans is directly tied to Russian interference and our national security. As the Foreign Secretary put it,

“our partnerships in the region are central to our efforts to tackle irregular migration”.

I have raised concerns about this region on multiple occasions. I regret to say that my warnings have not been heeded and neither the previous nor the current Government have acted decisively so far.

I visited Bosnia this past weekend, and I must say clearly: Bosnia today mirrors Ukraine prior to 2022. Secessionist actions in the country closely follow the path taken by the separatists in Donbass. Their external enablers in Serbia are playing the same role that Russia did in Ukraine and the Kremlin is active throughout the Balkans too. In the last two days alone, the secessionist pro-Russian leaders have aggressively destabilised Bosnia. The region’s assembly has pushed through laws that undermine state police and judicial powers, set up a parallel legal system and adopted a Russian-style crackdown on civil society. In a blatant challenge to the Dayton Agreement, authorities have also hinted at a full withdrawal unless post-1995 state institutions are dismantled.

Secessionists in Bosnia openly speculate about the possibility that the United States will no longer stand foursquare behind European efforts to uphold the sovereignty and territorial integrity of that country. They further speculate—in a move that would have been unthinkable only a month ago—that the United States will side with Russia in the closed UN Security Council meeting on Bosnia taking place around now. The risk of escalation is real, whether by reckless miscalculation or deliberate provocation.

Does the Minister agree that the lessons from Ukraine must be applied now to avert the possibility of further conflict in the region, which Europe can so ill afford? As he will know, international security structures to deter conflict exist in the country, but they are dangerously undermanned. Can he give his assessment of NATO and EUFOR’s ability to respond to further escalation? Can he give an update on the UK’s renewal of the status of forces agreement with EUFOR? Will the Government now actively consider rejoining Operation Althea and strengthening NATO HQ in Sarajevo? The committee’s report rightly commends the Joint Expeditionary Force as an international success story. Replicating such models across Europe, including in the western Balkans, could provide the unity and deterrence that the region so urgently needs.

Ukraine faces its darkest hour—besieged by Russia in the East and betrayed by some of her allies in the West. We cannot afford to stand idle. This report presents a stark, if inconvenient, truth: our military is underfunded, our technology is outdated and we are woefully unprepared for war. As we stand firm with Ukraine, we cannot ignore Europe’s forgotten flank, the western Balkans. Pre-emptive, decisive action based on deterrence not only is cheaper but gives us the chance to regain the initiative, push back against Russia and its allies and move beyond the cycle of a perpetual reactive response. We have not prevailed over Russia since the Cold War. The western Balkans is one region where we can, and must, do just that.