The Ukraine Effect (European Affairs Committee Report)

Baroness Hayter of Kentish Town Excerpts

Thursday 21st November 2024 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Hayter of Kentish Town (Lab)]

My Lords, it is always a pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, and I very much look forward to the wise words of the noble Lord, Lord Levene, who is something of an expert of defence. Unbeknown to him, he was just a couple of years behind my husband at the City of London School—it produced at least two fine alumni.

While we meet on the 1,002nd day of war, as my noble friend Lord Spellar said in his maiden speech and as the noble Baroness, Lady Suttie, said today, there have been 10 years of war and of Russian incursion into Ukraine. Sadly, despite regular protests against Israeli attacks on Gaza, the world seems to have forgotten the daily Russian military attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and its people.

Two things followed that invasion: it fast-tracked Sweden and Finland into NATO, and it made the EU and UK collaborate on an immediate problem. Neither are things that Putin can have wanted. The EU is now more focused on defence: it has a defence commissioner and a special fund. It knows it will have to do more, despite backtracking from some, such as Slovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria, which will make unanimity difficult.

Since February 2020 the international stage has, of course, changed further: not just in the Middle East, where we have seen Iran flex its muscles—its support for Russia’s war adding another threat to Europe’s security—but, as others have said, with the election of Donald Trump, his tilt at China and his threatened tariffs, and the hostility to the EU that he shares with Putin. All those things challenge our assumptions about trade, Europe and Ukraine.

While the whole world—particularly Ukrainians—desires peace, Zelensky has said on the radio that he wants to do everything so that this war ends next year and ends through diplomatic means. But that does not mean on any terms. It is vital that the EU and UK hold to the view, as the noble Baroness, Lady Suttie, said, that no other country has the authority to negotiate away the territory of Ukraine. That is even more key now because Trump might seek a deal with Russia, even if it means leaving Putin with most of what he gained through aggression—a price that Trump, but not the rest of the allies, might be willing to pay.

If we take Trump at face value, Europe will have to carry more of the burden of supplying Ukraine. This is challenging at a time when Germany, the single biggest donor after the US, is in full election mode, and with Scholz unwilling to allow the use of Taurus missiles. Trump’s obsession with the US trade imbalance with the EU impacts his attitude to Europe’s approach to Ukraine and has implications for our relationships with the EU well beyond anything imagined at the time of Brexit.

Our Government rightly want to reset our relationship with the EU, and to include defence in that. But this comes at a time when the President-elect’s aides hint at excusing the UK from the tariff war that Trump seems to want to wage. That puts us in a difficult position, given our closeness to the US, its significance as a trading partner and our reliance on it in the nuclear area and through Five Eyes. There is certainly trouble ahead in steering this ship of state.

For the moment, rightly acknowledging that the defence of the UK starts in Ukraine, the Government have continued their welcome support for Ukraine and said that this remains “ironclad”—as indeed has the G7. Its leaders’ communiqué this week reaffirmed their unwavering support for Ukraine as long as it takes, and their contribution to its fight for sovereignty, freedom, independence, territorial integrity and reconstruction.

One immediate task for us is to ensure that our population remains staunchly supportive of our continued role. At the level of parliaments, last month in Budapest, COSAC—the conclave of parliamentary European affairs committees—strongly and unequivocally reiterated its condemnation of Russia’s unprovoked illegal invasion, its war of aggression and its occupation and annexation of parts of Ukraine, which constitute a flagrant violation of the UN Charter. COSAC renewed its full, unwavering support for the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within internationally recognised borders, along with military and diplomatic support for as long as it takes and as intensely as needed.

That is great from the parliamentarians, but people, as well as parliamentarians, need to be kept onside and engaged. Even after the war, both our people and the UK, working with the EU, will face another challenge—helping to rebuild that shattered land. That means social provision, education, civil society and its future, which depends on its children. As Coram International points out, Ukraine has particular challenges here, with more children in care than any other European nation, and with many orphans and displaced children spread around Europe. Reintegrating those children will be an enormous challenge. If the war is not to produce another scarred post-conflict generation, we and the EU should work together on programmes aimed at people as well as buildings. The EU did it before, after the fall of the Berlin Wall. This is a time for us to rise to that challenge.

Ukraine never wanted to be the fulcrum in our relations with the EU, but it has shown that this continent cannot be constrained by political structures, assumptions and bureaucracy. It must be fleet of foot, united in purpose and committed to peace, freedom and the rule of law. As we go forward, Europe needs a strengthened common purpose. I trust the UK will play a full role in fulfilling that.