European Union Referendum Bill

Baroness Anelay of St Johns Excerpts

Monday 2nd November 2015 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Morgan of Ely]

The noble Lord is absolutely right that we can take decisions; I am concerned about what those decisions will be. I have no clarity whatever that the money will go back into the UK coffers and then straight back to the farmers in the UK or the structural funds in the poorest areas of Britain. We have no clarity on that and it is absolutely right that we raise the question, particularly for those who are directly affected.

Turning to the amendment in my name, I ask what will happen to the citizens of Gibraltar. Spain would love to take the opportunity to leverage the whole situation of British exit to push its case for sovereignty over the island. What is the Government’s contingency plan if we were to leave? What would happen if Spain were to close the border? Would we send a fleet? Would we mount a Berlin-style airlift to support the island? The people of Gibraltar are very concerned with these questions.

Few would deny that membership of the EU and the single market brings huge advantages to the UK economy and to British businesses. Many other aspects of our national life have also benefited. Will the Government provide a precise and comprehensive report on the possible consequences of withdrawal? We are pleased that the Minister has said that she is in listening mode and that there may be a possibility of producing some kind of White Paper on the impact of withdrawal—and of remaining in the EU as well; I do not object to that. We would like to hear today a commitment that the Government will produce a White Paper and we would like to hear the timescale in which the Minister believes it will be possible to produce it. Much of the work has been done. The balance of competences review has done a lot of the spadework. It needs to be updated into a comprehensive look at the consequences. We believe that the failure to provide such information before a decision of this magnitude would be letting down the British people and shirking an essential responsibility of government.

[The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Baroness Anelay of St Johns) (Con)]

My Lords, I am grateful to all noble Lords for their contributions to what has been an extensive and certainly an important debate today. This Bill sets the stage for one of the biggest decisions that the British public have been asked to make in a generation. It is absolutely right to say, therefore, that the British public should expect to be able to make an informed decision and to be provided with information about the possible consequences of the decision they take when they cast their vote.

The debates today give the Committee the opportunity to consider what information it is appropriate and/or necessary for the Government to provide at the conclusion of the negotiations for a reformed EU. As the Electoral Commission has recognised, it is the designated campaign organisations that will play a crucial role in providing such information. This is the established practice in the United Kingdom and is in line with the Council of Europe’s best practice guidance on referendums. However, as the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, has argued, along with many other noble Lords, there may also be a role for the Government. That issue has been fully discussed today, and there are further matters relating to that in other groups that we will discuss later today.

Each of the amendments in this group creates a statutory requirement for the Secretary of State to publish a report no later than 12 weeks before the date of the referendum and to lay such reports before each House of Parliament. Before I refer to the timeframe itself, in line with the normal practice in these circumstances, I should comment on the different content required in each report as set out in the amendments themselves.

Amendment 21, in the names of the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, the noble Baronesses, Lady Morgan of Ely and Lady Smith of Newnham, and my noble friend Lord Bowness, requires the Government to publish a report that sets out information on the consequences of withdrawal from the European Union. The report must cover: the effect that withdrawal would have on the rights of individuals in the UK, and on the rights of UK and EU citizens living in the EU and UK respectively; the legislative consequences for each government department and the devolved Administrations; and the impact on social and environmental legislation, law enforcement, security and justice. Many noble Lords have intervened in other Members’ speeches with regard to these matters.

This has been a very useful opening salvo to the debates today on information, but I rather feel that the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, will not be too surprised if I remark that his amendment is highly prescriptive. I know that he meant to set out a very good construct around which other noble Lords could contribute; he has achieved just that and I am grateful to him. As for the content of the amendment, the duties that it imposes are onerous. That is not necessarily a reason to not do this, but I am very mindful of what my noble friend Lord Higgins said when he posed the question of whom these reports are meant to be for. That is what we need at the core of our deliberation. The public are educated and sophisticated, and those of us who are unelected take those who cast their votes for another place very seriously indeed. When we go on the doorstep, we listen to what they say. We are confident, as we should be, that they want to see clear, objective information, but the question to consider is how that will be best delivered. How will it be objective? As my noble friend Lord Higgins said: how will it be accessible? We want not to overwhelm people with detail but to enable them to make an informed decision.

Amendment 21 would also need to be carefully reworked before it could appear in the Bill. For example, the references to “European” or “United Kingdom citizens” and to “devolved jurisdictions” would need to be corrected. We would need to work out whether there was an intended distinction between the use of the terms “legislative” and “statutory”. We would also need to clarify what was intended by the term “social legislation”, which is at present so broad as to be unclear. The very broad nature of the examples that noble Lords gave showed the difficulty with the definition. We would also need to think carefully about which of the areas in question, such as environmental legislation, were devolved matters.

I know the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, has used this as a valuable spur to debate, but I should put on the record why it would not be appropriate to accept the amendment, which appears to require detailed analysis of future discretionary changes to devolved legislation, without first consulting the devolved Administrations. I hope that noble Lords will accept that it would be inappropriate to commit at this stage, on behalf of four different Governments, to producing such broad analysis. To condense this into one report could be confusing to those who need to make a decision at the ballot box.

Amendment 27, tabled by my noble friends Lord Blencathra, Lord Hamilton and Lord Flight, would create a statutory requirement for the Secretary of State to publish a report and lay it before both Houses of Parliament 12 weeks before the date of the poll. Unlike Amendment 21, this report must set out the consequences for the United Kingdom of remaining in the European Union. The amendment has given the Committee a valuable opportunity to broaden the debate on what constitutes information appropriate for the Government to publish. In that respect, it assists the debate today. However, like Amendment 21, this is a highly prescriptive amendment that sets out six areas that the report must cover. These include the effect on the UK’s social security systems, its insolvency law and its place on the IMF if it were to remain in the European Union. Noble Lords will be aware that providing the level of detail required by this amendment on a wide range of policy areas could involve a high degree of speculation. We would all be cautious about that, I hope. Without a crystal ball—I do not have one to hand—I fear that we could struggle to anticipate future policy developments at EU level. I know, as I have heard it from all quarters around the Committee all afternoon, that noble Lords want to ensure that any information provided to the public is well founded and assists an informed decision.

Amendments 28 and 29, from the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, and Amendment 30, from the noble Baroness, Lady Morgan, focus on the consequences of a withdrawal from the EU on structural funds, support for agriculture and Gibraltar. Amendments 31 and 32, from the noble Lord, Lord Green of Deddington, focus on the consequences on net migration of remaining in the EU and access to citizenship for non-EU citizens within member states. I will make two points with regard to all these amendments. These are highly specific obligations. The question we need to consider is whether every one of the requirements set out in these amendments represents the extent of the information that the general public would need from the Government or not. We come back to the question of what it is right for the Government to propose for the public—which includes us as voters—to be able to make a well-informed decision. Noble Lords clearly already have varied views on that, and we need to see how we take that forward to be able to come to some common conclusions at some stage.

[Lord Wigley]

I thank the noble Baroness for the attention she is giving this. If the Government were unable, after considering this matter, to give a commitment to bringing reports on structural funds and agriculture—which my two amendments address—would she rule out the right of the National Assembly for Wales to bring forward its own reports and its own interpretation of the situation?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, it would be wrong of me to give a commitment on that until I have come to the conclusion of what I may or may not be able to offer. I do not want to provide too much hope about what I am going to be able to offer, but I hope it will be seen to be constructive, which is how it is intended. I know the noble Lord makes a very serious point in his intervention. At the base of this, and what needs serious consideration, is what the Government should be providing and what should be provided by campaigning bodies.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Collins of Highbury (Lab)]

My Lords, I will try to be very brief. I will start by saying that in the previous debate and at Second Reading my noble friend Lady Morgan made our position of support for the principle of reports and information quite clear. This comes back to the Electoral Commission’s submission that people want more information and informed debate. Clearly, we know that the debate will be focused on those who are committed to remaining in and those committed to leaving. However, the debate today highlights a problem we have with people who take a fixed position. I am one of those who believe that the Prime Minister is intent on negotiating progress within the European Union. I also believe that the European Union is open to constant reform. I do not see the date of the referendum as the date when everything stops, with it simply being a question of deciding, “It’s good now” or “It’s bad now”. The debate on reform is really important, which is why the Office for Budget Responsibility can have an important role to play.

The noble Lord, Lord Higgins, asked, “Who are these reports for?”. I could not agree with him more in asking that, but I think that they will make an important contribution and stop the debate deteriorating into one between those who simply want out at any cost and those who simply want in at any cost. The reform agenda must be very much at the forefront of the debate that we will have.

I think that the Office for Budget Responsibility is capable of doing the job. It produces reports on the Budget and is capable of producing a longer-term fiscal sustainability report on future trends and pressures. It is ideally suited to the job and I think that people will want to hear from it. There were debates in the other place about whether the Bank of England should or should not express an opinion. We support the independence of the Bank and it has been doing a good job. The noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, thinks that the Bank has got it wrong many times and asks, “Why should we listen to it now?”. However, I am also aware that when even a body like the Bank of England reports, the Guardian says that its report shows that the EU provides a dynamic environment for economic growth, whereas the Daily Telegraph said that the report has nothing to do with EU membership. So whatever the OBR produces, I have every confidence that the campaign to remain in the EU will say one thing and that the campaign to take Britain out will say something else. However, the British people deserve to understand the source of the information, which is why we will support both amendments.

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, in moving Amendment 22, the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, has enabled the Committee to have a debate which goes to the heart of the question of who should be the author of a report regarding the effect upon the economy of the UK were there to be a decision by the British people at the referendum to leave the EU or remain in the EU. Of course, I notice that the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, talks about withdrawal and that my noble friend’s amendment talks about remaining in, but Amendments 22 and 23 together have enabled an overall debate.

The request in both amendments goes beyond the remit of the OBR, which is set out in the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011. The OBR’s main duty is to monitor the sustainability of the public finances. Its role is to make economic and fiscal forecasts based on the policies that the Government plan to implement. Conducting analysis of hypothetical scenarios for the purpose of a referendum is simply beyond its scope. Indeed, the statutory basis of the OBR forbids it to consider the effects of alternative policies.

It may assist the Committee if at this point I refer briefly to the 2011 Act. The precise language under Section 5(3) is as follows:

“Where any Government policies are relevant to the performance of that duty, the Office … must have regard to those policies, but … may not consider what the effect of any alternative policies would be”.

The point on alternative policies is very clear. In the Government’s view, these amendments would indeed require the OBR to consider alternative policies, as I think has become clear during the debate.

As my noble friends Lord Blencathra and Lord Forsyth alluded to, we should consider a wider point. If the OBR were to report on the economic consequences of UK withdrawal, it would risk pulling the organisation into the political debate—something that the OBR was set up precisely to guard against—which could therefore undermine its reputation as an independent and objective institution.

I understand that the amendment was tabled as a spur to debate and it has helped us in that regard. As I advised noble Lords at the end of the debate on the previous group of amendments, we will now think carefully about the issue of public information and consider what we may be able to bring forward by way of an amendment on Report. At this stage, I therefore invite the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, to withdraw his amendment but, in the first instance, I urge my noble friend Lord Blencathra not to move Amendment 23, which is an amendment to Amendment 22.