Autumn Forecast

Andrew Love Excerpts

Monday 29th November 2010 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

Of course, I am a believer in trying to reduce the tax burden and trying to reduce taxes. However, I have always believed that the best way to achieve that is from stable public finances, otherwise one cuts taxes one year and has to put them up the next. So I am a fiscal conservative with a small c as well as a tax-cutting Conservative with a big C.

[Mr Andrew Love (Edmonton) (Lab/Co-op)]

In reference to the answer to my hon. Friend the Member for Streatham (Mr Umunna), the Chancellor, through the OBR, is suggesting that there will be 8% growth in business investment yet there is scant sign of it at present Net trade, it has been suggested, will increase by 6% in each of the next four years yet, according to the Governor of the Bank of England, there are doubts about whether the euro area or the United States will deliver the sort of export growth that is being suggested. Is not the Chancellor just a little worried about the optimism in the estimates and is he concerned about whether they will be delivered over the next four years?

[Mr Osborne]

The hon. Gentleman says that I made the forecasts, but they are independent forecasts by Mr Robert Chote, whom I do not think anyone would claim is in anyone’s pocket. He is totally independent. The hon. Gentleman is on the Treasury Committee, which interviewed Mr Chote for the job and passed him. These are Mr Chote’s, Mr Nickell’s and Mr Parker’s estimates and they have made a central forecast. He says that there is scant evidence, but that is not what the Office for Budget Responsibility believes. It is independent and it has forecast that business investment is set to grow by more than 8% for each of the next four years and that exports are set to grow by an average of more than 6% a year.