National Policy Statement (National Networks)

Andrew Gwynne Excerpts

Tuesday 13th January 2015 Commons Chamber

[Mr Goodwill]

The first point to make on that is that the HS2 network is not within the scope of the NPS; it has its own separate hybrid Bill process. The vast majority of the schemes we are investing in are upgrading existing networks. Indeed, in the smart motorways scheme, we are using existing carriageway for hard-shoulder running. Some specific schemes will need land, such as—off the top of my head—the A14 Huntingdon bypass, which will be on new land, and one of the options for the lower Thames crossing would also require the procurement of land.

On the specifics of the NPS, the Select Committee raised some issues with the forecasts in its scrutiny of the draft NPS. The Government use a number of forecasts to allow us to understand the potential for a range of outcomes for road demand. The range of forecasts predict growth on the strategic road network of between 27% and 57% from 2013 to 2040. Rail passenger demand is predicted to continue to grow significantly. Total average growth in passenger kilometres is predicted to be just over 50% from 2011 to 2033, including phase 1 of HS2.

Long-term forecasting is challenging and we acknowledge that in the past we have over and under-forecast traffic. That mainly reflects inaccurate projections for the key drivers of traffic growth: population, GDP and oil prices, which are themselves uncertain, as anyone who is waiting to buy their first litre of petrol for £1 will no doubt agree. To reflect the uncertainty in these key drivers, we have presented a range of forecasting scenarios. It is notable that on this basis we expect greater divergence between traffic in different locations, but even on the lowest national traffic forecasts we will still see strong growth on the strategic road network that will increase congestion and crowding.

There is a similar picture for rail, where even low forecasts show more crowding, more congestion on rail lines and problems with reliability. It is important to understand that the forecasts in the NPS will not be used as the sole means to justify new developments. Individual schemes will also be required to use local models to justify schemes and to understand local impacts. Local modelling will remain an important part of the transport business case, which all road schemes funded by the Government will continue to be required to complete.

The NPS supports a significant and balanced package of improvements across the road and rail networks. Those improvements are accompanied by policies to support sustainable transport.

[Andrew Gwynne (Denton and Reddish) (Lab)]

Before the Minister moves off the subject of forecasting, may I press him a little on resilience? I know that this is an issue that my hon. Friend the Member for Nottingham South (Lilian Greenwood) pushed in Committee, but of course it is not just about passenger or traffic growth but about the resilience of the transport network into the future, particularly given some of the problems we saw last year with flooding. What is the Government’s assessment of the future resilience of the national network?

[Mr Goodwill]

The first point to be made is that even during the bad weather and flooding we had last winter the strategic road network proved particularly resilient, as was High Speed 1, which, being built to a high specification, was able to cope with the weather. The hon. Gentleman is right that we must consider the resilience of our network, particularly the rail network, and that is why we commissioned one of the Department’s non-executive directors, Richard Brown, to look specifically at resilience, and particularly at what happened at Dawlish and the need for alternative routes. That is very important and the hon. Gentleman is absolutely right that we should focus on it.

The appraisal of sustainability in the NPS shows that overall its environmental impact will be neutral. Yes, there might be some localised environmental impacts but they have been shown not to be significant, and the targeted measures to reduce pollution in areas of poor air quality, the commitment to tackle areas of the network that are vulnerable to flooding and noise and the huge support for ultra-low emission vehicles show how the NPS supports a sustainable package of measures.

The NPS is clear that road improvements must be delivered in an environmentally sensitive way and must look to improve environmental performance wherever possible. Much environmental good can be done as part of the investment programme, including introducing noise-reducing surfaces and sustainable drainage and eliminating bottlenecks in the system that push up emissions and worsen air quality.

As a result of the consultation and the debates in the other place, we have further strengthened environmental protections. For example, we now have a presumption against road widening or new roads in national parks and areas of outstanding natural beauty. We have also made a number of other changes, including strengthening the text on biodiversity, landscape, land use and noise.

Reducing carbon is very important and that is why the Government have already set stretching and legally binding carbon budgets that will see a 50% reduction in emissions in 2025 compared with 1990 levels, on the path towards an 80% reduction by 2050.

[Mr Goodwill]

Buses are increasingly environmentally friendly. Indeed, the Government have put £106.5 million into cleaning up buses both by supporting the purchase of new low-emission buses and by funding the cleaning-up of older buses. Many people rely on the bus to get to work, particularly at the start of their careers. Bus priority lanes are also part of the process, which is why I and many others were surprised when Labour-run Liverpool decided to abandon the majority of its bus lanes.

Carbon impacts will continue to form a key part of the transport appraisal and decision-making process for road schemes. We also make it clear that any new schemes that would have a material impact on the ability of Government to meet their carbon reduction targets should not go ahead.

At the same time, the Government are committed to decarbonising roads. Investment of more than £900 million in ultra-low emission vehicles—December’s registration figures for such vehicles are very encouraging—and fuel efficiency regulations mean that we expect greenhouse gas emissions from motoring to drop in 2030 by about 20% from present day levels.

The Government take air quality seriously, and substantial weight will be given to air quality considerations where a project would lead to a significant air quality impact or to a deterioration in air quality. Not all new road schemes will present an air quality challenge. Air quality implications are complex, depending on a number of criteria relating to both the new road scheme itself and the wider area. It is important to take an holistic approach to improving air quality. That is why this Government are committed to large investment in a package of measures to support cleaner and more sustainable transport, which will also help to improve air quality.

Consent for a scheme will be refused if the air quality impacts result in a currently compliant zone becoming non-compliant, or affect the time scale of a zone becoming compliant. The Government have recently announced various initiatives to reduce local air pollution, including more than £900 million to support the uptake of ultra-low and zero-emission vehicle technologies between 2010 and 2020; £100 million for the road investment strategy specifically for air quality improvement; £2 billion for the electrification of the rail network, replacing dirty diesel trains with cleaner electric trains; and £600 million for the local sustainable transport fund, as well as the money for cleaning up older buses, which I have mentioned.

[Andrew Gwynne]

I am grateful to the Minister for giving way again. Is there anything in the new national networks policy that commits the Government to improving air quality on the existing strategic road network when it is in an air quality management area that exceeds EU safe standards?

[Mr Goodwill]

It is important to note that we have all agreed those EU standards at a European level. They are not being dictated to us by Europe; we agreed to them. It is important that we look at the reasons why air quality is deteriorating in some areas. The work that has been done on cleaning up buses has certainly helped in urban areas.

It is disappointing that, because of the economic problems under the previous Government, the car fleet was not renewed as quickly as we had predicted. Therefore, the older cars that produced more nitrogen oxides and other pollutants were not replaced as rapidly as they should have been. As we return to economic growth, with near record levels of vehicle registrations, more old dirty cars are going to the scrap heap and more new cars are getting on our roads, which will help. We can also use a number of mitigating factors on the strategic road network. For example, we are considering trialling barriers to try to channel pollution away from communities that are close to roads.