European Council

Andrea Leadsom Excerpts

Thursday 8th December 2011 Westminster Hall

[Andrea Leadsom (South Northamptonshire) (Con)]

I am delighted to follow the hon. Member for Luton North (Kelvin Hopkins) and to find myself agreeing with him yet again—we also agree on high-speed rail. I am also grateful to my hon. Friend the Member for Gainsborough (Mr Leigh) for his history lesson. I confess that I am one of those economists who tends to look at things from an economic perspective, rather than an historical one.

What concerns me about the latest proposals for eurozone crisis prevention measures is that they simply will not work. It boils down to the fact that what makes the difference between sovereign risk and credit risk is the undoubtedness of sovereign debt, backed by a lender of last resort. In the end, if a country is a sovereign risk, its lender of last resort can print money, its currency can devalue and it can get out of its difficulties that way. The eurozone has as yet failed to address that fundamental issue, and the measures that it now proposes mean nothing more than ever-greater fiscal integration, but without the ability to issue proper sovereign debt. Market chaos will therefore not cease for longer than the short term.

[Mr Jenkin]

Does my hon. Friend share my concern that, even if the European Central Bank was turned into a fully fledged sovereign central bank and printed unlimited sums, it might provide liquidity and buy some space for a while, but the fundamental structural problems between the different economies stuck in the eurozone would not be addressed? Austerity packages would still need to be applied, but the EU’s institutions do not have the democratic legitimacy to impose austerity on countries in that way.

[Andrea Leadsom]

Yes, I agree. The key issue is that if these countries are to have sovereign risk, they must completely guarantee and underwrite each other’s debt and obligations. That is very unlikely ever to be achieved in the EU, which just makes the problem of not having a lender of last resort even more existential for the eurozone. I therefore have genuine concerns about whether the proposals actually offer a solution.

Here we are on the eve of a very important summit, which is designed, on the face of it at least, to put the market’s fears to bed once and for all. The Prime Minister has a strong hand, because the German Chancellor and the French President need a treaty at the 27 member state level, for two practical reasons. First, if they started again, with just the 17 eurozone members trying to create a treaty between themselves, they simply could not do that in the time frame that the markets would permit them. That is a very practical issue, which they need to consider. Under the Lisbon treaty, however, treaty changes can be fast-tracked. Secondly, as was pointed out earlier, the 17, as a group, could not simply annex the EU institutions and use them for themselves; they would require the permission of the 27 EU members. For both those reasons, a treaty is needed at the 27 member state level, and that makes the Prime Minister’s hand very strong.

Like other Members, I am pleased that the Prime Minister is absolutely determined to protect Britain’s interests. What does that mean? First and foremost for every EU member, regardless of whether it is in or out of the euro, that must be about stopping the crisis—there is no doubt about that. If the euro descends into a disorderly collapse, that will easily cost 6% or 7% of British GDP, and it would probably push us into a worse recession than the one after the financial crisis of 2008. There is therefore no doubt that our top priority should be to solve the eurozone crisis.

[Mr David Nuttall (Bury North) (Con)]

As my hon. Friend will be aware, this is not the first time European leaders have met to try to resolve the crisis in the eurozone. Why does she think that eurozone leaders and, indeed, the leaders of the whole EU will be any more successful this time than they were on any of the previous occasions when they met to try to come up with a grand solution to save the euro?

[Andrea Leadsom]

I thank my hon. Friend for those remarks. There is a desire to come up with a solution; but as I said, I do not think that it will work, for reasons of economics and the markets’ actions. I hear what my hon. Friend says.

Britain is clearly struggling to recover. The eurozone crisis is testing us and is close to pushing us back into a no-growth, or even a recessionary, period. We therefore need to look after Britain’s interests by not only protecting the eurozone, but ensuring that we create safeguards for our most important industry, and I want to put in a plea for financial services.

There has been a lot of talk about holding a referendum, changing the common agricultural policy or simply repatriating powers, but what do all those things mean? If we hold a referendum, what would the question be? How quickly and easily could people understand enough about the implications of a question such as whether we should allow the 17 fiscally to unite? That is an extraordinarily complicated question, and referendum questions really need to be along simple lines, such as whether Britain should be in or out of the EU. At a time when these things are in flux, that is almost impossible to answer.

[Mr William Cash (Stone) (Con)]

I should like to ask my hon. Friend a simple question. How much more important can things get than when we face a fundamental change in the relationship between ourselves and the EU? It is as simple as that. This is an historic question, and it demands a referendum. Why does she think otherwise?

[Andrea Leadsom]

We will just have to agree to disagree. If people are in government, they govern. At the current moment, a referendum would be extraordinarily important in the history of Britain, but it would be extraordinarily difficult to get the sort of answer that would give the Government a coherent direction. It is for the Government to make the best decision at this moment. For what it is worth, I have always thought that a referendum needs to come at the tail end of a renegotiation of Britain’s relationship with the euro and that it should be used to ratify such a renegotiation, based on the simple question of whether Britain should be in or out of the EU on the basis of a pre-negotiated set of terms with the EU.

[Mr Jenkin]

I could accept that approach, and my hon. Friend has answered her own question about what the referendum question could be. We will not agree the treaty texts at the summit; the meeting will discuss issues of principle and the treaties will then be drafted, but their ratification will take months if not years. We are talking about a referendum some time during that period to ratify a new deal for Britain. Does my hon. Friend not think that that would be a sensible way to go? Would it not strengthen our Prime Minister’s hand if he was to put that view to those at the meeting this weekend?

[Andrea Leadsom]

I am perhaps not understanding. The calls that I have seen in the media are all about our needing a referendum, but now is not the moment for one.

[Mr Jenkin]

If I may say so, my hon. Friend has seen a bit too much of the Government’s propaganda, rather than heard what some of us have been saying. We cannot, of course, ask for a referendum on the spur of the moment; we are asking for a referendum on renegotiated terms of membership, which we desperately need and which this summit demonstrates that we will need. We should be able to tell our European partners, “Go ahead with your proposals for fiscal union. We don’t think they’ll work. It’s a big change for us, so we need these measures in return. As part of the ratification process, we will put this to the British people and recommend a yes vote, as long as you agree our terms.”

[Andrea Leadsom]

I thank my hon. Friend. In truth, right now, I genuinely believe that the Prime Minister has to focus his effort on creating the best solution for Britain, and that is what he is doing. As for all the demands for referendums, the fact that I am confused about what my hon. Friend has been saying, although I am quite close to these issues, demonstrates that other people will doubtless also be confused. The demands are seen as our party, at least, trying to cause trouble for the Prime Minister. For that reason alone, now is the time to get behind the Prime Minister, who has promised the British people that he will defend our interests.

Let me come to why defending the City is the key priority at the moment. People talk about renegotiating EU directives that have already been implemented, but as we have found as part of the Fresh Start project work, that is real spaghetti; it is extraordinarily difficult to unwind existing, implemented policies. I am a very practical person, and the best approach in terms of doability is to look at what has not yet been implemented and what the biggest threat to Britain is. On those two counts, there is no doubt that we should focus on financial services.

Financial services account for 11% of Britain’s tax take each year—about £50 billion. It employs nearly 2 million people; it is our biggest export; and it creates a huge positive trade surplus. Given that we have a big overall trade deficit, we would be looking at a far worse trade balance without financial services. Added to that is the fact that the potential for the future growth of financial services is all outside the eurozone; it is in the BRIC countries—Brazil, Russia, India and China—and America and Asia. That is where the potential lies. Yet, before the financial crisis, Britain was in a strong position in creating an EU financial services single market. We were influential. That was all about deregulation, open access to markets, growth and jobs. Britain did very well out of that and so, by the way, did the rest of Europe. Other eurozone countries did extraordinarily well, because the City was the entry-point to European financial services markets. That benefited us all.

Since the financial crisis, however, the agenda has changed. Britain has rightly changed its regulatory environment by greatly increasing controls, the closeness of supervision and the requirements for capital, liquidity and so on. The EU’s goal has been more to ban what it does not like: “Let’s reduce financial activity; we will constrain, prevent and reduce what is going on.” Nowhere in the EU treaties is there any talk of prudential decisions that the EU might make that would go against the fundamental commitment to single markets and growth opportunities, so the 49 EU directives and other proposals on financial services coming down the track are already in breach of the spirit of the EU treaties, which are all about creating better markets and more access.

I want to mention a couple of those matters in particular. First, on the financial transactions tax, people may think, “They will never do it; it would be cutting off their nose to spite their face and the business will simply go elsewhere.” Actually, however, I think many people in the EU are determined to do it, because they do not want the business. They think that Anglo-Saxon light-touch regulation and the success of financial services are partly to blame for the eurozone crisis. They are quite wrong, but that is where they lay the blame, so they would consider a financial transactions tax that would drive business abroad to be a good thing. To anyone who thinks, “They would not do it,” I would say that they would if they had the opportunity. Of course, that would be disastrous for Britain. It would not be a tax on bankers; it would be a tax on pensioners, investors and savers, because it would go straight to the bottom line of every investment portfolio. If anyone said that it would serve bankers right, I would reply that it would affect not bankers but savers. I could not support that.

Secondly, a slightly unbelievable idea has been proposed in the eurozone that a clearing house with more than 5% of its turnover denominated in euros should relocate to the eurozone. That would be daylight robbery and steal our business, and I am glad that the British Government are already challenging it in the European Court of Justice. Where in the single market treaties, which are all about growth and jobs, does that appear? How would it support British growth and jobs? It would not. I am extremely concerned about the tone and extent of EU directives coming down the track. They are not yet implemented; but unfortunately, under QMV, they could be implemented without Britain’s say-so.

[George Eustice]

I agree with my hon. Friend that the Prime Minister is right to prioritise the financial services directives in the negotiations. Is she aware that Open Europe has today published a poll of City institutions showing that more than 60% of them believe that the burden of regulation coming down the tracks from the European Union outweighs the benefits of the single market?

[Andrea Leadsom]

I have not seen the poll—I have been looking forward to seeing it—and I am not surprised by what my hon. Friend says. Although, as I have said, the treaties are all about expanding markets, growth and opportunities, some of the unintended consequences of EU policies have been the complete opposite of that, and never more so than in financial services. I think that a deliberate attempt has been made to reduce financial services activity in the eurozone.

Financial services should be the top priority for the Prime Minister. He has been clear about drawing a marker in the sand to the effect that Britain wants a secure legal agreement that, in the event that financial services legislation is against Britain’s best interest, we can prevent it from being imposed on us.

[Emma Reynolds]

The hon. Lady is making an eloquent speech. Does she support our idea that, to protect financial services and decisions on the internal market, the Prime Minister should call for all non-euro member states—the 10—to be observers at the euro group meetings that will be held so regularly?

[Andrea Leadsom]

Any attempt that the non-eurozone members make to protect their interests is important, but perhaps an even better way to do it would be to ensure that, if any vote is passed under QMV by the eurozone bloc, there should also be a supporting vote under QMV on the part of the out-group of 10, at a very minimum, to ensure that the in-group could not ride roughshod over the out-group.

[Mr Leigh]

We now know that the policy of Her Majesty’s loyal Opposition is to be an observer.

[Andrea Leadsom]

I thank my hon. Friend for his intervention.

[Mr James Gray (North Wiltshire) (Con)]

I entirely agree with my hon. Friend about the threat to financial services and the importance of focusing on the City and welcome the fact that the Prime Minister has said that he intends to do precisely that at the summit. None the less, does my hon. Friend agree that there is a subtle risk that he could come back from the summit, waving, Chamberlain-like, a piece of paper in the air and saying, “Haven’t I done well? I have protected a number of things that were under threat in the City of London”—despite having ignored the historic opportunity of the summit and allowed several other things to slip by without repatriating anything at all in the process?

[Andrea Leadsom]

That is an important point, because the Prime Minister will not be just having a chat and getting general agreement; he will want to get a firm assurance and put a marker in the sand saying, “We feel your pain and share your goal and will want to protect Britain’s specific national interest by including our own requirement in the treaty.” There cannot be simply a gentleman’s handshake, so that what is agreed can be watered down later. There must be a firm commitment on all sides that Britain’s national interest will be protected.

[Mr Nuttall]

Does my hon. Friend agree that the problem with marks in the sand is that, when the tide comes in, they get washed away?

[Andrea Leadsom]

That is a good observation and I have noticed that, but it was not what I meant, and my hon. Friend knows it. What I have outlined is down to the Prime Minister to achieve. He has committed to do it. We must have confidence in his determination to follow it through.

[Mr Stewart Jackson (Peterborough) (Con)]

I respect my hon. Friend’s intellect and erudition on this issue, but she will be familiar with the story of Pyrrhus and his remark, “One more such victory and we are doomed.” We can very well defeat the straw man of the financial transactions tax, while we ignore the creation of a de facto country, perhaps called Greater Germany, that will militate against the long-term financial, economic and political interests of the United Kingdom.

[Andrea Leadsom]

I do not see things as starkly as that. We are now in a position where the Prime Minister can protect Britain’s interest and is committed to doing so. We need to give him the chance to do that.

I want briefly to discuss things that we can do ourselves. First, there is an awful lot of talk about repatriation and things that we could do differently, but in the long years of the previous Government, the EU was largely ignored and many opportunities to improve how we do things at home were missed. Some quick examples include how we implement EU directives. We have an opt-out from the working time directive, as do 16 other member countries, which makes a majority in the 27, if my maths serves me correctly. We could band together with the other 16 and demand that the EU reconsider the directive in its entirety. I have talked to a British delegation of MEPs who think that there could well be interest in doing that. Why have we not done so, if we all like to think that the directive is disastrous?

Secondly, why do we have so few British workers in the EU institutions? Why are none of our people employed there? Why did the previous Prime Minister choose to put someone in the post of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, instead of having someone in the financial services commissioner post? It has been left to a Frenchman who does not understand financial services particularly well to do that job for us.

Something that should be entirely within our gift to sort out is scrutiny in Parliament, and we do not do enough of that here. We leave it up to the incredibly overworked European Scrutiny Committee, which is ably chaired by my hon. Friend the Member for Stone (Mr Cash). In areas such as financial services and agriculture, we should pass directives on to the specialist Select Committees, which have the interest and expertise to look at detailed areas, and ask them for their help and support to ensure that, before we receive directives that we then have to implement, we have done the best job that we possibly can for Britain.

--- Later in debate ---

[Martin Horwood]

I will give one example. The hon. Member for South Northamptonshire (Andrea Leadsom) mentioned clearing house regulations. Since that dealt with transactions governing euros, how would we have influenced that legislation had we been outside the European Union? We might have found that by leaving the European Union we had excluded ourselves from such decision making and enabled the EU to take precisely that kind of decision, to the immediate detriment of the British economy and the status of the City of London, which is a European asset as well as a British asset.

[Andrea Leadsom]

Specifically, that would not have happened. It is only because the UK is in the EU that the EU can require London clearing houses to go under this type of legislation. If we were not part of the EU, it would not affect us.

[Martin Horwood]

I hesitate to challenge an expert in her own field, but we might find that the kind of interests that we are able to defend in economic policy, and financial policy specifically, within the European Union would not be so easily defended if we were outside the EU. It is one thing for Norway or Lichtenstein to be allowed access to European markets and to gain the benefits of the European economic area, because they do not pose much of a threat to Germany, France or the other EU economies. It would be different if an economy the size of Britain’s was taking advantage of such a situation or trying to mould the rules to our own advantage. It is critically important to the City of London that we retain our membership of the EU.