Alan Brown Portrait Alan Brown (Kilmarnock and Loudoun) (SNP)
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I know that the shadow Minister said he did not want to speak to amendment 91, but for pure indulgence I would like to say a few things. The shadow Minister admitted that the amendment is not quite factually correct. It is clear that it was actually more on message for the Government than the Government are themselves in terms of heat pump installations. If it had been moved, I would have supported the amendment because it would set a much more ambitious target for the installation of heat pumps: at least 600,000 per year by 2025, instead of the Government’s target of 2028, which is completely out of kilter with the recommendations of the Climate Change Committee. I urge the Government to reconsider that and adopt a more ambitious programme.

Will the Minister say how many heat pumps were installed in 2022? What is the plan to get up to the Government’s target of 600,000 heat pump installations a year? This is an important Bill but it also shows the need for the Government to think in the round in terms of legislation. The clause and the amendment are all about heat pump installations. We are still awaiting the future homes standard. Will the Minister outline what will happen with that? Last year more than 200,000 houses were built in the UK—the largest number completed since the 2008 housing crash—and the majority of them are going to be connected to the gas grid and will not have heat pumps installed. Year in, year out, the number of houses that will need to be retrofitted with heat pumps will increase until the Government bring forward the future homes standard. I would like more clarity from the Minister on that, and about targets the Government are looking to set to drive it forward.

Alan Whitehead Portrait Dr Whitehead
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The clause relates to the question of the installation of heat pumps, as the hon. Member for Kilmarnock and Loudoun correctly drew attention to. The intention of the amendment, had it been moved, was to place the Government’s own targets in the legislation. There is a question about the difference between those targets and what has actually happened so far with the boiler upgrade scheme, for example, with 30,000 heat pumps per year being underwritten for a three-year period, leaving a difference between the target and the number of heat pumps likely to be installed under that scheme of more than 500,000.

There is a considerable difference between Government targets, how many heat pumps have already been installed and how many heat pumps are likely to be installed over the next few years. One of the purposes of the amendment, which was not moved, was to stiffen the Government’s resolve in that respect by placing those targets on the face of the Bill, so that the question of how the gap is made up is rather more focused in the minds of the Government now and, indeed, any future Government.

It is important that we start the process of filling in the gap between target and actuality. I would be grateful if the Minister could give us a few brief views on how that might be done, and what he intends to do, possibly on the basis of this legislation, to make that gap clearly reachable and incorporate it into the progress that has already been made with heat pump installations.

Andrew Bowie Portrait Andrew Bowie
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To answer the hon. Gentleman’s substantive point on why we are not incorporating the Government’s own target of 600,000 heat pumps per year by 2028, there are compelling reasons why we believe it would be unwise to set any particular target in the enabling powers in the Bill. The setting of scheme targets is best suited to the making of regulations. That is in part because that is when the best assessment of the relevant market conditions can be made, so that targets do not exceed what is viable and result in unintended consequences, which we would be worried about had we put the target on the face of the Bill.

Alan Brown Portrait Alan Brown
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Will the Minister give way?

Andrew Bowie Portrait Andrew Bowie
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I will come to the hon. Gentleman’s questions in a moment, if he will be so patient. It is also because it is very possible that the scheme, under those powers, might be best focused not on any entire ambition for the deployment of one or more low-carbon heating technologies, but on a particular subset of that overall aim, such as retrofit properties but not new builds. That would ensure flexibility.

Alan Brown Portrait Alan Brown
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I understand that the Minister does not want the targets to be on the face of the Bill; does that mean the Government plan to bring forward secondary legislation to facilitate the targets?

Andrew Bowie Portrait Andrew Bowie
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That will be a matter for secondary legislation. I am sure that the hon. Gentleman and other Committee members cannot wait for the Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee to debate the detail of that.

I will answer the hon. Gentleman’s original questions. He asked why the Bill does not introduce the 900,000 heat pump installations recommended by the Climate Change Committee’s balanced pathway to net zero. Indeed, he asked why our aim is to introduce two thirds of that number, 600,000. The Government’s ambition for developing the heat pump market this decade is strategically compatible with all future heating scenarios, including those where hydrogen plays a major role. I know that the hon. Gentleman is fully aware of that, given his interest in hydrogen.

The CCC pathway, which suggests a market of 900,000 installations by 2028, assumes a minimal role for hydrogen in 2050. By contrast, it is interesting that the CCC’s hydrogen-led pathway suggests a much more modest deployment rate of heat pumps in earlier years. The Government believe that the step-change ambition for building a heat pump market as set out, which does not pre-empt wider strategic decisions in the middle of this decade, is the most prudent approach to this investment.

In answer to the hon. Gentleman’s second question, the building regulations will continue to set a performance-based standard, rather than mandating or banning the use of any technology if we do not want to head down that route. However, homes built under the future homes standard will be zero-carbon ready, with low-carbon heating and high levels of energy efficiency. I can confirm that 70,000 heat pumps a year are now being installed in the United Kingdom.

Question put and agreed to.

Clause 106 accordingly ordered to stand part of the Bill.

Clause 107

Further provision about scheme regulations

Question proposed, That the clause stand part of the Bill.

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Olivia Blake Portrait Olivia Blake (Sheffield, Hallam) (Lab)
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It is a pleasure to serve under your chairship, Ms Nokes. I rise to support the amendment, because this is a fundamental issue. The Minister talked about households only, but will the offer that he outlined be available to businesses? That is important, because businesses have different energy needs, even in residential areas.

It is important that we take people with us. They must have the option to say no to such trials and get low-carbon heating by another means. That is all I wanted to say on the amendment.

Alan Brown Portrait Alan Brown
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There is another hydrogen trial ongoing—the H100 project in Fife, which is the world’s first trial of green hydrogen for heating and hot water. Like the hon. Member for Southampton, Test, I hope that that experiment is successful.

That trial in Fife highlights the issues that we are debating today. Will the Minister update the Committee on the number of properties signed up to H100? Investigative journalists have reported that the £1,000 sign-up offer was not enough of an inducement to make households sign up. That is the conundrum: it is fine to say that there will be a financial incentive or a consumer offer—the Minister says that we will never need to resort to using the powers in these clauses—but it is clear that some people are reluctant to sign up. If the financial inducement is not enough, how will the Government and the gas operators take those people with them and get this over the finishing line?

It is absolute critical that we take people with us. It is critical that consumers understand the offer they are getting, the risk and the way that the hydrogen trials are being undertaken. It is important that there is transparency in the reporting of the trials. In particular, we need to understand how risks and leakages will be reported. The worst thing that can happen is for rumours or wrong perceptions to circulate.

Amendment 118 is intended to give people an alternative to being part of a hydrogen trial. I support that principle, but that still leaves us with the dilemma of what happens if a household says, “I don’t want to be part of a hydrogen trial and, by the way, you can forget these heat pump things. I am quite happy with my methane gas, thank you very much.” What would happen in that circumstance?

That brings me to the Minister’s argument on Second Reading that the powers will not be used to either force people into the hydrogen trial or leave them disconnected from the gas network. What happens if not enough people are signing up? Frankly, the Government will then have a dilemma. If they want to facilitate these hydrogen trials, they need enough people on the hydrogen network, otherwise the trials will not be sufficient to get an understanding of, or see, the proper operation and benefits of hydrogen.

What will the Government do if not enough people are signing up? How will they facilitate people signing up without forcing them, and how will they get these powers to be successful in terms of mass criticality? There is the old phrase, “You can’t make an omelette without breaking some eggs.” It might well be that the Government are going to upset some people, but they will have to be honest about it. Just saying, “There is no way we will use the powers in the Bill” might be unintentionally disingenuous. I am curious what the Minister’s thoughts are. It is fine to say that the Government will not use them, but that remains to be seen.

Andrew Bowie Portrait Andrew Bowie
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I thank hon. Members for their comments. The hon. Member for Kilmarnock and Loudoun is absolutely right that there is a third village trial, which has not been referenced this morning. That is, of course, the H100 trial in the kingdom of Fife. I will endeavour to get an answer to him on how many households have chosen to take part in that. I do not have the figure to hand, but I will write to him with an updated number.

On the other two trials, final decisions have yet to be made on the locations, and details of the exact processes are a matter for the companies and operators engaging in the trial. I thank the hon. Member for Southampton, Test for his amendment. It is very important that we discuss the issues he raised. We have always been very clear that nobody will be forced to use hydrogen, and alternative heating solutions and appliances such as electric heating systems and cookers will be offered for those who do not take part in the trial. As my noble Friend Lord Callanan confirmed in the other place, all consumers in the trial location will have the right to decide whether they use hydrogen or an alternative heating solution for the duration of the trial.

The requirement was clearly established in a joint letter from the then Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and Ofgem to the gas transporters, which set out the requirements that will have to be met before any funding is provided to the next stages of the trial. It is on the shoulders of the operator to prove that they have community consent to proceed with the trial in a given location. This is a fundamental requirement for the trial. The gas transporters need to demonstrate that they have a viable plan for providing alternatives, otherwise His Majesty’s Government will not proceed with the trial proposal. This obligation will also form part of any future funding agreement.

Alan Brown Portrait Alan Brown
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I think that goes to the heart of what I was getting at. The Minister is saying that the Government will not proceed if not enough people sign up and give consent to the gas network companies. Are the Government basically saying that people effectively get their own referendum or mandate to decide whether the Government’s trials on hydrogen go ahead? It seems to me that it is fundamental to Government policy to test this out, but they are actually saying that by default citizens will decide whether the trials are going ahead or not. That could completely derail Government policy.

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Alan Brown Portrait Alan Brown
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I will be quick. I am quite happy to support the clause. Bill Gates said just the other day that the technology has moved much quicker than even he believed. The Minister will be well aware that one of the possible technologies that will be deployed in the Scottish cluster is direct air capture. With this clause and the Bill coming through, it makes it even more imperative that the Scottish cluster is given the support it needs and the track 2 timeframe is confirmed, so that we can get the legislation in place and deliver the carbon savings that the Government want to see.

Andrew Bowie Portrait Andrew Bowie
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I do not disagree. As the hon. Member knows, I am a passionate advocate of carbon capture, utilisation and storage and the clusters emerging across the United Kingdom. As I know he supports and champions, we have already spent over £40 million supporting the Scottish cluster as a UK Government.

Question put and agreed to.

Clause 118 accordingly ordered to stand part of the Bill.

Clause 119

The Independent System Operator and Planner (“the ISOP”)

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Alan Whitehead Portrait Dr Whitehead
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We come to a section of the Bill that I heartily approve of. I have long championed the idea that we set up an independent system operator in this country. It is really important in our next phase and where we go in renewing our infrastructure, and ensuring there are delivery mechanisms to cope with the renewable energy that we hope will be the mainstay of our carbon production. It is important not only that those systems are in place, but that they are in place as soon as possible. There will be discussions in this section about the best way of ensuring that the ISOP is set up in such a way that it can perform that function.

As the Minister will know, the independent system operator has been in gestation for a while, in terms of the separating of National Grid ESO from the National Grid itself. National Grid ESO now performs something of the function I have started to describe, but without the remit to do so. What we need over the next period is not just National Grid ESO, nor something with a different name from National Grid ESO, but something that is much closer to a system architect in upgrading our systems for renewable purposes. That is how I see the development of the ISOP. It is important that in our first go at what the ISOP does, as it were, we get the best combination of things it is responsible for and that we get right its ISOP set-up.

In the development of the grid so far, certainly as far as renewable energy connections are concerned, there is no real distinction between the high-level grid, which was the historic purview of National Grid and ISOP, and the lower-level grid, which is still pretty powerful but is in the hands of the distributed network organisations. Sometimes a false distinction is made between what is happening at National Grid level and what is happening at a more regional or local level. There is no real distinction now, because renewable sources, in particular, are seeking to substantially connect to 123 kV cables to a far greater extent than they are seeking to connect to high-level grid 440 kV cables. Consequently, some of the biggest backlogs in connection dates are not just in the high-level grid.

The Minister will be aware—we have discussed this previously in the House—that a number of large wind farms are getting connection dates to bring ashore and distribute the electricity they are producing not just a few years away, but in 2036. As I have mentioned previously in the House, that is one year away from when the Government have indicated they wish to see a predominantly renewable energy system in place. We may well have the tools to have the low-carbon energy system in place, but if we cannot deliver the electricity from those tools to anybody, we do not have a low-carbon energy system in place in the end. It is important that we get the system properly in place, so that it can deliver the connections and the offshore re-cabling. That way we will have a decent grid highway with anticipatory investment.

Alan Brown Portrait Alan Brown
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On the hon. Member’s comments about offshore green infrastructure, does he share my concern that offshore developers in Scotland are now being told that they need to connect to the grid in Blyth because the connections are not available in Scotland? It just seems counterproductive and clearly adds additional costs to these projects.

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Andrew Bowie Portrait Andrew Bowie
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Before I expand on the Government’s position and explain why we will not accept new clause 1 or the hon. Gentleman’s amendments, I will acknowledge absolutely that connections and connection timelines are the biggest challenge we face—for electrification to grid, for driving our economy forward in the way we seek to and for reaching our net zero goals. Every single day for the past few months, but in particular this week, I have been engaging with DNOs, transmission operators, Nick Winser who conducted the independent review, Ofgem and the National Grid ESO about what we can do to drive down those timelines. At a critical point, part of that will be the creation of the ISOP. For the benefit of those who might be slightly confused, that is what we refer to outside the Bill as the future system operator—ISOP and the future system operator are one and the same thing.

I will now turn to the question asked by the hon. Member for Southampton, Test about why an advisory board would make ISOP risk-averse and not fully independent. We are concerned that, rather than enhancing independence, the members of such a board would likely hold various energy sector conflicts. That could crystallise in many ways, including resistance to systematic reform, advice to pay compensation to energy sector participants or an incumbent bias that would seek to frustrate new market entrants. Establishing an industry-led advisory board for the ISOP would be similar to establishing one for the Climate Change Committee—it is not required for an organisation that needs to remain independent, such as the Climate Change Committee, which we are using as the basis for how we proceed.

A prime consideration of the ISOP consultation was that the body should be independent from day-to-day Government control and from other energy sector interests. That is why we need to ensure that the ISOP is a trusted and independent voice within the energy sector.

Alan Brown Portrait Alan Brown
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Again, I am in favour of the ISOP and happy to support that, but will the Minister give us some timescales? How soon after the Bill receives Royal Assent will the ISOP be up and running to authorise the independent operator?

Andrew Bowie Portrait Andrew Bowie
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I am happy to answer the hon. Gentleman. The aim and the ambition is for the FSO/ISOP to be up and functioning by the middle of next year.

I turn to amendments 95, 96 and 97, tabled by the hon. Member for Southampton, Test. The Government agree that those are all things that the ISOP needs to bear in mind, but we think that the balance in part 4 would be distorted by calling them out in the high-level illustrative list of the ISOP’s initial functions in the clause.

On amendment 95, matters already of concern to the existing system operator will continue to be a concern to the ISOP, in particular as it seeks to promote system efficiency under clause 121. On amendments 96 and 97, we understand that a closer relationship between the system operator and the distribution system operators—indeed, closer relationship across all energy networks—will allow for better co-ordination and ensure optimal system-wide planning. However, we do not think that such things should be included in the high-level illustrative list of the ISOP’s initial functions. A new collaboration duty is not necessary as that lies at the very heart of our vision for the ISOP. The importance of co-ordination across networks is made clear by clause 121(4)(a) and the whole systems duty in 122(1)(c).

Clause 120 empowers the Secretary of State to designate the ISOP, doing so by granting a power to the Secretary of State to make the first designation of a person as the ISOP and, if needed, to revoke that designation and issue a new one. I commend clauses 119 and 120 to the Committee.