Amendment of the Law

Debate between Adrian Bailey and Barry Gardiner

Wednesday 21st March 2012 Commons Chamber

[Mr Bailey]

I am afraid I do not read comics such as The Dandy, and I have not come across any such predictions at all. I do not think that they are in the OBR’s projection, either.

From the moment the Chancellor came into office, he has ruled out any intelligent debate on the right balance of supply-side and demand-side measures that would achieve a level of economic growth that would eliminate the deficit and provide employment. When the Labour Government left office, the economy was growing, unemployment and inflation were falling and our public sector deficit was declining, but the Chancellor seemed to think that that was all wrong, and that the only recipe was austerity. His justification for that was the perceived threat that a credit rating agency would downgrade Britain’s triple A status, with all the horrors that that would entail. I congratulate the Chancellor on one thing: he has transformed credit rating agencies from being the most anonymous part of our financial services infrastructure into bedroom monsters that he conjures out of the wardrobe to frighten anyone who has the temerity to question the underlying philosophy behind the measures that he is taking. We have to suffer job losses, cuts to our public services and pay freezes, because if we do not, Moody’s and Fitch will get us. That is the Chancellor’s underlying approach.

[Barry Gardiner]

Could they possibly be the same Moody’s and Fitch that gave Lehman Brothers its triple A rating?

[Mr Bailey]

I think they probably were.

After we have endured two years of pain since the Government came into office, Moody’s and Fitch have rewarded the Chancellor for all his efforts by putting Britain’s triple A rating on negative outlook. The monsters have turned on their master. The pain has been in vain, and the Chancellor should acknowledge that and start genuinely to consider a more balanced approach that would enable us to implement the changes that we need to grow our way out of the deficit.

I remind Members that it was only last August when the Chancellor sneered at the American model and told us that the American economy was growing more slowly than Britain’s. Now, however, America has taken a balanced approach. Its economy grew 3% in the last quarter of 2011, and is predicted to grow further. Its deficit is predicted to drop next year, as is its unemployment. The fact is that the model that the Chancellor sneered at is actually delivering, while his is not. Last week, when I saw the Prime Minister having his cosy discussions with President Obama, I wondered whether he might have taken him aside and said, “Mr President, how is it that you have got your economic strategy so right and my Chancellor has got his so wrong?” But perhaps that was just a fantasy.

Parts of the Budget are good, and they might help, even though they deal with the supply side, when the demand side needs to be addressed. The national loan guarantee scheme is obviously a welcome measure, and some companies will benefit from it. However—this might be a good thing for those companies—some companies that use it would have invested anyway, while companies on the margins will not be able to access it: they will run up against the same problems as before. One cannot help but think that if more were done to inflate the economy and improve the demand side, more companies would become more viable in the future and more companies would be able to access the scheme.

The fact remains that while access to finance is still a barrier for many sound companies, this is not the only issue. Many companies are not going to the banks because their future market projections are such that they do not have enough confidence to invest any more. Although there has been a very modest improvement in business confidence, it is still very fragile overall, and this measure alone is not likely to counteract it.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies projections show that we are only a quarter of the way through the public sector cuts. If future public sector cuts designed to deliver on the Government’s objectives result in further unemployment, I foresee only a further squeeze on the financial situation of individuals and a further decline in the domestic market needed to give those companies the sort of confidence they need.

An earlier speaker mentioned the national insurance holiday that was introduced in a previous Budget. No mention of that whatever was made in this Budget; it has been a colossal flop. However, small businesses are campaigning up and down the country, arguing that if this were reshaped and if the money that has not been used were ploughed into it, all small businesses could qualify, provided that they employ more people. That would be a relatively minor tweaking to the Government’s Budget strategy, yet it could result in a significant increase in employment and a significant increase in demand. I am disappointed that the Government did not look at that.

On construction, much has been said about the national infrastructure plan. Fine, it is a great plan, but it is being projected as if having a plan results in delivery. So far, what has been conspicuously absent is any sort of funding mechanism to achieve this. We have heard about using pension funds, which may be a great idea, and we have heard about private investment, which may also be a great idea—we will see. The key point is that until there is a model for the financing of the delivery of these infrastructure plans, these are really pie-in-the-sky ideas. I have an uncomfortable feeling that these so-called plans are being used as a substitute for doing something.

The construction industry needs action on this level. Having enjoyed a revival in 2010 and early 2011—largely as a result of contracts initiated under the previous Labour Government—it is now shrinking. As of this moment, employment is predicted to drop by 45,000, with a further 3% in output in 2012. If the Government really want an infrastructure-led revival in our economy, they need to move quickly. We have the companies capable of delivering it, and we have the skills within those companies; what we need is Government action. Let me make one qualifying point. About 60% of the projects in the national infrastructure plan are based in London, but the greatest unemployment in the construction industry is outside in the regions, so the plan needs to be revamped to take that into consideration.

The Government are certainly making all the right noises about exports. What the Chancellor did not mention is that if we are to expand our exports to the BRIC countries—Brazil, Russia, India and China—reducing UK Trade & Investment’s budget by 17% is perhaps not the best way of doing it. Also, he did not mention that two of the most significant growing markets that we need to access, India and China—other Members have talked about this—are, as a result of the visa regime, hugely concerned about whether Britain is open to business. There is considerable evidence that that is damaging our economic relations with them.

My last point is very much a personal one. As a long-standing co-operator and as a believer in mutuality and employee share ownership, I believe that measures should be taken to foster and develop employee share ownership in this country. There is a huge body of evidence demonstrating that it leads to greater employee and consumer satisfaction, and greater productivity. The tax allowable savings rate for members who wish to invest in their companies has not been increased for donkey’s years. The Government have said that they will review it. Given the commitment made by both the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister, I would have wished for something a little more solid than that, and I hope that the review will deliver it.

UK Trade and Investment

Debate between Adrian Bailey and Barry Gardiner

Thursday 15th March 2012 Westminster Hall

[Barry Gardiner]

I think that I should just take interventions and not make my speech, because every one of them is excellent. The hon. Member for The Cotswolds is right. I disagreed with him on his earlier points about RDAs, but on this point I agree: benchmarking and international comparators are essential if we are to see what we are doing. Also, there must be much closer scrutiny, performance management and benchmarking within UKTI to ensure that we are delivering what we promised. I will mention accountability in that sense later.

[Mr Bailey]

I am just giving my hon. Friend another opportunity.

A relevant point made in my Select Committee’s report last year was that a problem with UKTI is that it has been focused on measuring processes, rather than outcomes. Doing the latter is far more difficult. Does my hon. Friend agree that to assess its effectiveness, we have to find some mechanism by which we can measure UKTI’s impact?

[Barry Gardiner]

I would that every debate I participated in shed as much light on the subject as this one appears to be doing, without my saying a word. My hon. Friend, who chairs the Business, Innovation and Skills Committee, speaks with great knowledge on the subject and has pinpointed one of the key problems. It is a problem not simply for UKTI but for government as a whole. Government is keen to measure outputs, but reticent about measuring outcomes. That process transformation is required, as my hon. Friend’s Select Committee has pointed out.

While Germany and France bolster their economies with effective trading bodies, UKTI presents itself to those who use it as slack, unfocused, inefficient and even, in some cases, a deterrent to investors. Consider what Dr Wu Kegang, chief China adviser to the British Chambers of Commerce, told the BBC last year. He said that Chinese investors

“have no idea how to enter the British market. They don’t know how to build business channels inside the UK to promote their innovative brands and products”.

Global economic power is shifting from west to east and UKTI is failing to adjust adequately to the new reality. The UK is falling behind in investment in BRIC countries; inward foreign direct investment is dropping; and our global share of trade has slumped. Recently, the news has been dominated by the difficulties that British companies are facing in securing contracts over their foreign competitors. Just last month, BAE lost out to the French company, Dassault Aviation, for a contract with the Indian air force worth £7 billion to the UK economy. We cannot afford to lose, and we should not be losing, such a contract.