Finance (No. 2) Bill (Third sitting)

Abena Oppong-Asare Excerpts

Committee stage
Wednesday 5th January 2022 Public Bill Committees

[Lucy Frazer]

Clause 67 introduces a power enabling changes to be made by secondary legislation to stamp duty and stamp duty reserve tax in relation to securitisation and insurance-linked security arrangements. The Government are keen to ensure that the UK’s stamp duty and SDRT rules contribute to maintaining the UK’s position as a leading financial services sector.

On 30 November, the Government published a response document and a draft statutory instrument following consultation on reform of the tax rules for securitisation companies. The consultation explored issues including the application of the stamp duty loan capital exemption to securitisation and ILS arrangements. The consultation sought views on whether uncertainty as to how the existing stamp duty loan capital exemption applies increases the costs and complexity of UK securitisation and ILS arrangements, and whether that is a factor in arrangements being set up outside the UK.

Clause 67 will allow Her Majesty’s Treasury to make regulations to provide that no stamp duty or stamp duty reserve tax charge will arise in relation to the transfer of securities issued by a securitisation company or a qualifying transformer vehicle. A qualifying transformer vehicle is the note-issuing entity in an ILS arrangement. The power will also allow HMT to make regulations to provide that stamp duty or SDRT is not chargeable on transfers of securities to or by a securitisation company. The power allows the Government to make changes to allow UK securitisation and ILS arrangements to operate more effectively, and reduce cost and complexity. There is currently no power to make changes through secondary legislation to the stamp duty and SDRT rules in relation to securitisation and ILS arrangements.

In summary, clause 67 will support the Government to respond flexibly to the evolving commercial practices of the securitisation and ILS markets, and ensure that the UK’s securitisation and ILS regimes remain competitive. I therefore commend the clause to the Committee.

[Abena Oppong-Asare (Erith and Thamesmead) (Lab)]

I am delighted to serve under your chairship, Dame Angela. Happy new year, everyone.

As we heard from the Minister, clause 67 relates to stamp duty on securities and related instruments. We do not oppose efforts to increase the efficiency and flexibility of this sector, but we wish to see appropriate safeguards to ensure that these changes do not increase the risk of stamp duty evasion and, as the Minister mentioned, to make sure that they meet the UK’s position as a leading financial sector.

Securitisation can be a useful source of finance for UK businesses and can aid capital liquidity and risk management. I note that the Treasury has consulted on the impact of stamp duty on securitisation and insurance-linked securities. Clause 67 gives the Treasury powers to make changes through secondary legislation to stamp duty as it relates to securitisation. Can the Minister explain why the Government feel that it is necessary to make those changes through secondary legislation, rather than using the Finance Bill or other primary legislation?

Can the Minister also give us some detail on the exact changes that the Government intend to make through this secondary legislation? For example, in what circumstances will the trading of securities be exempt from stamp duty? How will she ensure that this does not increase the scope for tax avoidance? Can she also provide reassurance that Parliament will still be able to scrutinise these changes? The clause really needs to be scrutinised.

[Lucy Frazer]

I thank the hon. Lady very much for those points. I welcome the fact that she, too, thinks it important that this country remains competitive and flexible, and supports growth in this very important sector.

The hon. Lady asked why we need these changes to be made by secondary legislation. The answer is that technical changes of the type consulted on are more often and more appropriately made through secondary legislation than by primary legislation. Making the changes through secondary legislation gives Government flexibility to ensure that technical changes respond to the evolving nature of the securitisation and ILS markets.

However, it is of course important that we have scrutiny and review. We had a consultation on this issue, from which these provisions follow; of course, anything that comes through secondary legislation will be scrutinised. We will keep this under review, as we do all taxes.

[Abena Oppong-Asare]

I thank the Minister for taking the time to explain that. It would be helpful if she could also explain what measures were put in place to allow Parliament to scrutinise these changes. I am sure that she would agree that it is important that Parliament should be able to scrutinise these changes properly; if she could list what steps have been put in place, that would be extremely helpful.

On my other question, it is really important that there is no increase in tax avoidance. Can the Minister set out what the Government have put in place to ensure that it does not increase?

[Lucy Frazer]

Like me, the hon. Lady will be aware that when things go through the secondary legislation procedure they are subject to scrutiny by this House, through those Committees. She will also know that this Government are absolutely committed to ensuring that we tackle tax avoidance; there are a large number of measures in this Bill that tackle tax avoidance and evasion, through cracking down on promoters and other mechanisms. It is something that we are alive to and acting upon, and for those reasons I ask that clause 67 stand part of the Bill.

Question put and agreed to.

Clause 67 accordingly ordered to stand part of the Bill.

Clause 72

Identifying where the risk is situated

Question proposed, That the clause stand part of the Bill.

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[Lucy Frazer]

Clause 72 relocates into IPT legislation the criteria to determine the location of an insured risk for the purpose of insurance premium tax. IPT is charged on most general insurance, where it provides cover for risks located within the UK.

Insurance for risks located outside the UK is exempt from UK IPT. That exemption prevents double taxation across different tax jurisdictions and puts UK-based insurers on a level playing field with overseas insurers. Legislation sets out how to determine the location of a risk in order to establish whether the IPT exemption applies. Regulations previously used to determine the location of an insured risk were replaced in 2009, and the new regulations did not include an equivalent provision. Instead, reliance was placed on directly effective European Union legislation. To ensure clarity for the insurance industry, this measure relocates the criteria into primary legislation. This is a technical change and does not reflect a change in IPT policy.

The changes made by clause 72 will remove references to inoperative regulations in the Finance Act 1994, introducing criteria to the same effect directly into the IPT legislation. The measure ensures that insurance for risks located outside the UK remains exempt from IPT, providing clarity and continuity for the insurance industry and supporting the maintenance of an effective and fair tax system.

[Abena Oppong-Asare]

I thank the Minister for her explanation of clause 72; it does seem like a straightforward clause that simply moves the criteria for determining where the risk is located into primary legislation. The Chartered Institute of Taxation has stated that the legislation does meet its stated objectives. For that reason, we do not oppose the clause.

I note that there has been wider consultation on the insurance premium tax, including on how to address the avoidance of the tax and how to reduce the administrative burden on HMRC and the industry. That is particularly important as HMRC has been under a lot of pressure—particularly during the pandemic. In the Government’s response to the consultation on the issue of IPT avoidance, they said that, on reviewing the responses,

“neither of the proposed options provide a proportionate solution to the issue this chapter sought to address. As such, neither option will be taken forward at this time.”

That seems like the Government have given up at the first hurdle. Why, if the proposed measures are not appropriate, are the Government not considering other measures to prevent avoidance in this sector?

[Alison Thewliss]

I do not have any major objections to what is being proposed, but I would be doing the Association of British Insurers a disservice if I let the clause go through without mentioning its concern, which I share, that insurance premium tax is quite a regressive tax. We are about to discuss tobacco duty; the ABI points out, through some research by the Social Market Foundation, that insurance premium tax now raises more revenue than beer and cider duty, wine duty, spirits duty, or betting and gaming duties.

Since 1994, the standard rate of IPT has increased more rapidly than tobacco duty. Those are all things that we want people not to do; we would prefer it if people did not drink as much, smoke as much or gamble as much, so we tax those things. It seems ludicrous to tax people on insurance, which we would like people to have and which benefits them and society, so I ask the Minister to consider further whether insurance premium tax is something sensible that we want to keep doing.

[Lucy Frazer]

The clause gives the Secretary of State for International Trade the power to call in and take control of reviews of trade remedies measures transitioned from the EU. This ensures that the Government can effectively take steps to prevent harm to UK industry where there is evidence of unfair competition.

Trade remedies are additional tariffs or tariff-rate quotas temporarily imposed to protect domestic industries from dumped or subsidised imports or unforeseen surges in imports. At the end of the transition period, the Government transitioned 43 of the EU’s trade remedy measures. The Trade Remedies Authority is now reviewing the transitioned measures to assess whether their continuation is suitable for the UK economy. The TRA is responsible for collecting and analysing evidence relating to trade remedies cases, and it currently makes recommendations to the Secretary of State for International Trade on whether particular measures should be revoked or varied or, in certain cases, retained or replaced. The Secretary of State can only accept or reject a TRA recommendation in its entirety.

The current framework was introduced in 2018. Since then, it has become clear that in some circumstances, greater ministerial involvement in decision making is required. The call-in power is designed to address that. It will allow the Secretary of State to call in a case if she considers it necessary. For example, she will be able to take a closer look at an individual case if needed in the wider public interest. The intention is that the Secretary of State will continue to rely on the expertise of the TRA to collect and analyse evidence, but that it will do so under her direction.

Whether a case is called in or not, the process will continue to be robust, transparent and evidence based, but the power will allow the Secretary of State greater flexibility in decision making than our legislation currently allows. The call-in power will apply only to transition reviews, and where the TRA is reconsidering its previous conclusions from a transition review. In parallel, the Government are considering wider changes to the trade remedies framework to ensure that it can consistently defend UK industry. That is separate from the limited scope of this clause, and the International Trade Secretary will report on the findings of that review in due course.

The changes made by clause 73 will amend the trade remedies regime to allow the Secretary of State for International Trade to call in transition reviews and reconsiderations of transition reviews conducted by the TRA. After calling in a case, the Secretary of State will be responsible for determining the outcome of that review or reconsideration. That will ensure that the Secretary of State can have greater oversight and involvement in a particular transition review or reconsideration of a transition review as appropriate, and therefore the ability to decide on appropriate measures, such as varying the tariffs that apply to particular products under the UK’s trade remedies framework.

Where this power is exercised, the Secretary of State need not necessarily base their decision on a prior recommendation or decision of the TRA. The Secretary of State will be required to publish the notice of a decision made under this clause. The Government will make secondary legislation to set out in more detail how the call-in power is to be exercised.

In summary, clause 73 will help to prevent injury to UK industry by empowering the Secretary of State to call in transitional reviews where appropriate, and give her control to determine the outcome of a particular transition review or reconsideration of a transition review. Such a determination may include retaining, varying, revoking or replacing the trade remedies already in place on the goods subject to the review.

[Abena Oppong-Asare]

This important clause relates to trade remedies. As we have heard, it allows Ministers to override the powers of the Trade Remedies Authority in order to maintain safeguard tariffs on cheap imports that unfairly undermine UK industry.

The clause’s introduction was prompted by the row over the TRA’s proposals to get rid of tariffs on cheap steel imports. In June last year, the TRA recommended the removal of limits inherited from the EU on about half of the UK’s steel imports. Slashing those safeguards and opening the floodgates to cheap steel imports would have been devastating for steel plants across our country and damaging for our wider economy. At the time, the director general of UK Steel said:

“On their first major test in a post-Brexit trading environment, the UK’s new system has failed our domestic steel sector.”

The Government U-turned on that decision after pressure from Labour and the industry, and belatedly maintained protections for the steel industry. Obviously, however, there are concerns about future TRA decisions, so we support the clause. Indeed, Labour campaigned for the Government to take more action to support our vital steel industry.

I ask the Minister to expand on subsection (5), which allows the Secretary of State to make regulations regarding how to make decisions on transitioned trade remedies. Will she set out what sort of regulations she envisages that the Secretary of State will make and how those decisions will be made? It is important that there is a transparent process for making these important decisions on trade remedies.

Finally, although we welcome this measure and hope that it ensures that vital British industries are better protected in the future, we remain concerned about the Government’s wider failure to support British industry. Industries such as steel are of vital strategic importance for our economic prosperity and national security, but the Government’s lack of an industrial strategy means that the steel industry is lurching from crisis to crisis. We need a proper plan to decarbonise the sector, to boost business competitiveness and to use British steel in UK infrastructure projects, in order to safeguard the future of the steel industry, as Labour’s plans to buy, make and sell in Britain would do.

Labour would also invest up to £3 billion over the coming decade in greening the steel industry. We would work with steelmakers to secure a proud future for the industry to match the proud past and present of British steel communities. I urge the Government to do the same.

[Lucy Frazer]

I did not want to interrupt the hon. Lady, but I think she has gone outside the remit of the measures in the Bill. However, I would like to correct her on a point—[Interruption.] She was talking about the steel industry as a whole, when we are dealing with a provision that relates in particular to the power of the Secretary of State to call in trade remedies.

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[Lucy Frazer]

The clause simplifies the way that technical updates are made to the UK’s tariff schedule. This measure inserts a new provision into the Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018 so that changes to the UK’s tariff schedule that do not alter the tariff duty rates applied to imported goods can be made by public notice rather than by secondary legislation, as is currently the case.

The clause will ensure that routine technical changes to tariff legislation, such as changing the codes used to classify goods or removing redundant codes, can be implemented more easily and quickly for those who refer to the legislation. Importantly, this measure also reduces the burden on parliamentary time in considering routine technical changes, while maintaining Parliament’s current levels of scrutiny of tariff duty rate changes.

In summary, the clause amends the Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018 so that technical changes can be made by public notice, thus ensuring simpler and quicker implementation of those changes to the UK’s tariff schedule.

[Abena Oppong-Asare]

This relatively minor change allows technical updates to the tariff schedule to be made by public notice rather than secondary legislation. Given that there are safeguards to ensure that substantive changes, such as varying the rate of import duty, continue to be made by regulation and are therefore subject to parliamentary oversight, we do not oppose the clause.

Question put and agreed to.

Clause 74 accordingly ordered to stand part of the Bill.

Clause 75

Restriction of use of rebated diesel and biofuels

Question proposed, That the clause stand part of the Bill.

[The Chair]

With this it will be convenient to consider that schedule 10 be the Tenth schedule to the Bill.

[The Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury (Helen Whately)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Dame Angela.

Clause 75 and schedule 10 make technical amendments to the existing legislation that restricts the entitlement to use rebated red diesel and biofuels from 1 April 2022, to adjust restrictions and ensure that the legislation operates as intended.

To help achieve net zero and improve UK air quality, the Government announced at Budget 2020 that they would reduce the entitlement to use rebated diesel and biofuels, which currently enjoy a duty discount, from this April. These tax changes will ensure that most current users of rebated diesel use fuel taxed at the standard rate for diesel from April 2022, like motorists, which more fairly reflects the harmful impact of the emissions they produce. The changes will also incentivise users of polluting fuels, such as diesel, to improve the energy efficiency of their vehicles and machinery, invest in cleaner alternatives or just use less fuel.

Following consultation in 2020, the sectors that will be allowed to continue to use rebated diesel and biofuels beyond April 2022 were confirmed at spring Budget 2021, with the changes legislated for in the Finance Act 2021. Clause 75 and schedule 10 will make technical amendments to the Hydrocarbon Oil Duties Act 1979 and the Finance Act 2021 to adjust restrictions on the entitlement to use rebated diesel and rebated biofuels, clarify how the changes to the new rules work, and allow the legislation to operate as intended.

In summary, the changes will alter the circumstances in which the use of rebated diesel and rebated biofuels will be permitted from 1 April 2022, including provisions aimed at transition to the new rules. They will also amend definitions relating to certain vehicles, machines and appliances. Some of these changes follow feedback received from stakeholders since the Finance Act 2021 received Royal Assent. Overall, the technical changes in this clause and schedule will ensure that the Government’s reforms to the tax treatment of rebated diesel and biofuels from April 2022 work as intended.

[Abena Oppong-Asare]

I thank the Minister for her explanation of the clause, which introduces technical amendments to the changes introduced to restrict the entitlement to use rebated fuel, more commonly known as red diesel. We discussed the substance of that change in Committee on the last Finance Bill. As I said then, we support the intention behind the Government’s measure. There is a clear need to ensure that fuel duty rebates are as limited as possible in order to meet our net zero commitment.

The amendments made by this Bill are technical in nature, and we do not oppose them. However, will the Minister set out which, if any, industries will be affected by the changes and what work is being done to ensure that they are prepared, given that we are now only a few months from the introduction of the changes? Will she also update us on preparations by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs and other agencies for the changes? Is she confident that the Government will be able to ensure compliance from April this year? The Minister’s colleague, the Financial Secretary to the Treasury, mentioned that there has been some restructuring around HMRC, but I echo the earlier comments by the hon. Member for Glasgow Central and my hon. Friend the Member for Ealing North, who explained that HMRC has been busy for a number of years. Will the Minister update us on what work has been done to ensure that we are prepared for this change?

[Alison Thewliss]

I am glad that the definitions are being amended to include fairs and circuses, of which there are many in my constituency, to allow them to continue to use rebated diesel and biofuels after 1 April 2022. In that industry it is quite difficult to adapt machines to use other sources. The showpeople I represent will be pleased that the Government have listened on this measure, and I thank the Minister for that.

[Helen Whately]

The clause implements changes announced in the autumn Budget 2021 on tobacco duty rates. The duty charged on all tobacco products will rise in line with the tobacco duty escalator, with additional increases made for hand rolling tobacco and to the minimum excise tax on cigarettes.

Smoking rates are falling in the UK, but smoking remains the biggest cause of preventable illness and premature deaths in the UK, killing around 100,000 people a year and about half of all long-term users. All those factors mean that we need to continue to encourage more people to kick the habit. We have already set out ambitious plans to reduce the number of smokers from 14% to 12% of the population by 2022, as set out by the Department of Health and Social Care in its tobacco control plan. We have announced that we aim to reduce smoking prevalence in England to 5% or less by 2030. That includes a commitment to continue the policy of maintaining high duty rates for tobacco products to improve public health.

According to Action on Smoking and Health, smoking costs society almost £14 billion per year, including a £2 billion cost to the NHS because of the disease caused by smoking. At autumn Budget, the Chancellor announced that the Government would increase tobacco duty in line with the escalator. The clause specifies that the duty charge on all tobacco products will rise by 2% above retail price index inflation. Duty on hand-rolling tobacco increases by a further 4%, to 6% above RPI inflation. The clause also increases the minimum excise tax—the minimum amount of duty to be paid on a pack of cigarettes—by an additional 1%, to 3% above RPI inflation.

The clause will continue our tried-and-tested policy of using high duty rates on tobacco products to make tobacco less affordable and to continue the reduction in smoking prevalence. That will reduce the burden placed on our public services by smoking. I commend the clause to the Committee.

[Abena Oppong-Asare]

As the Minister set out, the clause raises the duty on tobacco products, in line with the duty escalator, by RPI plus 2% for cigarettes and RPI plus 6% for hand-rolling tobacco. The minimum excise tax has been increased. We do not oppose those increases, but I will take this opportunity to make a couple of wider points about action to prevent smoking and the Treasury’s role in it.

Action on Smoking and Health stated that last year’s Budget was

“a small step forward on tobacco, but on its own won’t deliver on the Government’s commitment to a Smokefree 2030.”

In fact, projections show that the Government will miss that target by seven years, and double that for the poorest in society. As the Minister knows, tobacco duty has a dual role: raising revenue for the Government and reducing smoking rates. The latter role is most effective when combined with a comprehensive funded strategy to reduce smoking. Unfortunately, the funding for such a strategy has been repeatedly cut in recent years as part of broader cuts to public health grants. The Minister mentioned that smoking has fallen, but recently published evidence shows a 25% increase in smoking among young adults since the first lockdown, so it is clear that there is a lot of work to be done.

In a debate on smoking last year, the Under-Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, the hon. Member for Erewash (Maggie Throup), said in response to a question on taxation:

“That is a matter for Her Majesty’s Treasury. However, the Department continues to work with HMT to assess the most effective regulatory means to support the Government’s smoke-free 2030 ambition, which includes exploring a potential future levy.”—[Official Report, 16 November 2021; Vol. 703, c. 181WH.]

Will the Minister tell us what work the Treasury is doing to design a levy on tobacco manufacturers, along the lines of the “polluter pays” principles, to pay for campaigns to stop smoking and other public health measures? Those large and profitable companies often pay relatively little tax in this country, while those who smoke rightly pay a large amount of tax every time they buy a pack of cigarettes. Many public health experts urge the Government to look at the idea of a levy, and I strongly hope that the Minister will say more on that.

[Helen Whately]

I am glad to hear that the Opposition will not oppose the clause. The hon. Lady has said that it is not enough on its own, and the Government agree. Our tax treatment of tobacco is just one of a set of policies in place to reduce smoking. I assure her that the UK is seen as a global leader on tobacco control. Over the last two decades, we have implemented regulatory measures to stop young people smoking and non-smokers from starting, and to support to help smokers quit.

The hon. Lady also asked about a tobacco levy. I can tell her that the Government consulted on proposals for a tobacco levy in 2015. That consultation concluded that a levy is not the most effective way to raise revenue or protect public health. It would add complexity and additional costs, while the amount of revenue it could raise is uncertain.

[Abena Oppong-Asare]

I appreciate the time the Minister has taken to answer this question. The Department of Health and Social Care is saying something completely different. Last year, the Health Minister, the hon. Member for Erewash, said that taxation was a matter for the Treasury and that the Department was working with the Treasury to look at an effective regulatory means to support the Government’s smoke-free 2030 ambition, which included exploring a potential future levy. Could I have clarification on that?

It seems that the Department is saying something different from what the Minister has just said—that the consultation was done in 2015 and it was decided that a levy was not appropriate? I am not trying to be difficult here, but I think the Government need to explore this idea. A number of health experts and even the Health Minister are saying that, so some work needs to be done on this in detail. The last review was done in 2015, and we have moved on a number of years.

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[Helen Whately]

Clause 77 makes changes to uprate vehicle excise duty—or VED—for cars, vans and motorcycles in line with the retail prices index from 1 April 2022. VED is paid on vehicle ownership, and rates chargeable are dependent on various factors, including the vehicle type, date of first registration and carbon emissions. The Government has uprated VED for cars, vans and motorcycles in line with inflation every year since 2010, which means that rates have remained unchanged in real terms during this time. The changes made by clause 77 will uprate VED rates for cars, vans and motorcycles by RPI only for the 12th successive year, meaning that VED liabilities will not increase in real terms. The standard rate of VED for cars registered since 1 April 2017 will increase by only £10. The flat rate for vans will increase by £15 and motorcyclists will see an increase in rates of no more than £5.

New clause 5, tabled by the hon. Member for Glasgow Central, asks the Government to publish within 12 months of this Bill coming into effect an assessment of the impact of sections 77 to 79 on the goal of tackling climate change and on the UK’s plan to reach net zero by 2050. Similarly, new clauses 4 and 8 tabled by the hon. Lady ask the Government to publish, within 12 months of this Bill coming into effect, impact assessments on the goal of tackling climate change and on the UK’s plan to reach net zero by 2050, first on the Act as whole, and, secondly, on section 99 and schedule 16. These amendments are unnecessary and should not stand part of the Bill.

The Government are proud of our world-leading climate commitments, most recently set out in the net zero strategy. The latest Budget and spending review confirm that since March 2021, the Government will have committed a total of £30 billion of domestic investment for the green industrial revolution. That investment will keep the UK on track to meet its carbon budgets and nationally determined contribution, and to reach net zero by 2050. The net zero strategy sets out how the Government will monitor progress to ensure that we stay on track for our emissions targets. That includes commitments to require the Government

“to reflect environmental issues in national policy making”.

At fiscal events, including the spending review 2021, all Departments are required to prepare their spending proposals in line with the Green Book, which sets out the rules that we use in the Treasury to guide individual spending decisions. The Green Book already mandates consideration of climate and environmental impacts in spending, and it was updated in 2020 to emphasise that policies must be developed and assessed against how well they deliver on the Government’s long-term policy aims such as net zero.

Furthermore, the Treasury carefully considers the climate change and environmental implications of relevant tax measures. The Government incorporated a climate assessment in all relevant tax information and impact notes for measures at Budget—they are published online—and we will continue to do so in future TIINs. For example, the TIIN for the new plastic packaging tax incorporates an assessment of anticipated carbon savings—nearly 200,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2022-23. In addition, HMRC is exploring options further to strengthen the analytical approach to monitoring, evaluating and quantifying the environmental impacts of tax measures.

Given the substantial work already under way on these issues, the proposed amendment would add unnecessary bureaucratic requirements and layers of complexity. I therefore urge the Committee to reject new clause 5 and, for the same reasons, I will urge the Committee to reject new clauses 4 and 8 when we turn to those.

New clause 15, tabled by the hon. Members for Ealing North, for Erith and Thamesmead and for Blaydon, asks the Government to publish, within 12 months of the Act coming into effect, a review of the impact on VED revenue of future demand for electric vehicles. This new clause is also unnecessary and should not stand part of the Bill. The Government are committed to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050, and the transition towards electric vehicles and the phase-out of new petrol and diesel cars and vans will make a vital contribution to that. The Government have committed to ensuring, as we move forward with this transition, that revenue from motoring taxes keeps pace with this change, to make sure that we can continue to fund the excellent public services and infrastructure that people and families across the UK expect.

Analysis that projects the possible impact on VED revenues of future demand for electric vehicles is already in the public domain. First, since 2016, the Government have asked the Office for Budget Responsibility to publish a fiscal risks statement to improve disclosure and management of fiscal risks. The OBR’s 2021 fiscal risks report makes an assessment of the fiscal impact of achieving net zero, including the impact on VED and fuel duty receipts, which it explores under different climate change modelling scenarios.

Secondly, the net zero review published by the Treasury in October of last year also examines the possible decline in tax revenues, including VED and fuel duty receipts, as part of the transition to net zero. It notes that, were the current tax system to remain unchanged across the transition period, tax receipts from most fossil fuel-related activity would decline towards zero across the first 20 years of the transition, leaving receipts lower in the 2040s by up to 1.5% of GDP in each year relative to a baseline where they stayed fixed as a share of GDP.

Given that analysis of future VED revenues has already been published by both the Government and the OBR, the review of this issue sought by this new clause is unnecessary. I therefore urge the Committee to reject new clause 15.

Overall, the changes outlined in clause 77 will maintain revenue sustainability by ensuring that motorists continue to make a fair contribution to the public finances. I therefore urge that this clause stand part of the Bill.

[Abena Oppong-Asare]

Clause 77 raises the rate of vehicle excise duty for various categories of vehicle by RPI. This is a regular update to VED to ensure that it remains the same in real terms, and we do not oppose it. I do wish to make broader points about taxes affecting drivers and, in particular, to speak to our new clause 15.

Electric vehicles are not liable for vehicle excise duty, and of course their owners do not pay fuel duty. New clause 15 calls on the Government to report on expected future levels of vehicle excise duty in the context of the increasing uptake of electrical vehicles. It is designed to encourage the Government to begin to think and talk publicly about that critical question.

The transition from petrol and diesel cars to electric vehicles is critical as part of our broader transition to net zero. The Opposition have constantly raised concerns about the fact that the Government are not doing enough to support the take-up of electric vehicles, whether through supporting consumers and producers or improving the critical charging infrastructure. We continue to believe that the Government must do more in that area, but we also believe that they must begin to set out how they will deal with the fiscal consequences of the transition.

Fuel duty and VED currently raise around £35 billion for the Treasury each year. They are by far the largest revenue-raising environmental taxes. It is a truly significant amount of Government revenue, equivalent to nearly half the Education budget, but as electric vehicles become an increasing share of vehicles on the roads, that revenue will decline rapidly. One estimate shows that tax revenues from car usage could fall by around £10 billion by 2030, £20 billion by 2035, and £30 billion by 2040. The Treasury’s own net zero review stated that much of the current revenue from taxing fossil fuels was likely to be eroded during the transition to a net zero economy.

We might have expected the review to set out what the Treasury planned to do about that, but it was notably silent on that matter. When the Minister responds, can she tell us what work the Treasury is carrying out on that important issue and when it will set out its plans? Can she tell us what alternatives to VED the Treasury is considering—for example, road pricing or other taxes? Crucially, how will the Treasury balance the need to maintain income from driving with the need to incentivise the switch to electric vehicles? Those are critical questions, which cannot and must not be left to the last minute. We deserve to have an open debate about the best way forward. Motorists and taxpayers deserve clarity about how they will be taxed in the future. I hope that the Minister can begin to give us some insight into the Treasury’s thinking on this issue.

[The Chair]

I call Richard Thomson.