Greater Manchester Spatial Framework

Debate between William Wragg and Kate Green

Wednesday 14th December 2016 Westminster Hall

[William Wragg]

The hon. Gentleman makes a very important point about the need for greater “joined-up thinking”, a phrase that is perhaps over-used but rarely put into practice.

It is in this spirit—of building where there is genuine need—that I wish to raise some specific concerns about the methodology behind the framework. The draft framework proposes that 227,200 net additional dwellings will be needed by 2035 to home a projected population increase of almost 300,000 people. It also apportions this house-building target across the 10 Greater Manchester councils, and in the case of Stockport, the allotted target is 19,300 new homes.

I have concerns about how these figures have been arrived at. To estimate the population growth, the spatial framework considered information from the Office for National Statistics, the Department for Communities and Local Government, an economic forecasting model, the Experian credit-referencing agency and independent business consultants. In 2014, the combined authority produced a 165-page document, outlining and consulting on its methodology for calculating future housing needs. Dozens of tables and graphs later, we arrive at the magic prediction of 294,800 extra people by 2035, which translates into that figure of 227,200 new dwellings that I gave before.

Forecasting is a very difficult and complex task, and it is always subject to a degree of uncertainty. However, taking just the most recent three forecasts from the ONS—from 2008, 2010 and 2012—there is a variance of almost 200,000 people between the highest and lowest estimates for the population of Greater Manchester by 2032. This means that the framework’s magic number is two thirds within the margin of error of the three most recent ONS forecasts, and that is without even cross-examining the four other sources.

It is also curious to observe that 10 large housing developers all claimed that the authority’s objectively assessed need figure was too low, whereas the Campaign to Protect Rural England claimed it was “excessively high”. Faced with such wild variance in the estimates of population growth, it is difficult to have faith in the combined authority’s arithmetic. One wonders whether the projected need goes beyond the true need.

[Kate Green (Stretford and Urmston) (Lab)]

I congratulate the hon. Gentleman on securing this debate. My constituents are also concerned that an absolute number is meaningless if it does not take account of the mix of housing need, which must be matched to the population. They have particularly expressed concern about the need for family homes and affordable homes. Does he agree?

[William Wragg]

I agree with the hon. Lady, who raises an important point.

My second major area of concern about the draft framework is the proposal to release green-belt land for housing development. It proposes to build on 4,900 hectares of Greater Manchester’s green belt, representing a net loss of just over 8%. Locally, Stockport is set to lose some 9% of its green belt. Some 8,000 homes will be built on green belt in the constituency of my hon. Friend the Member for Cheadle (Mary Robinson), whereas in my constituency permission will be given to build a further 4,000 homes on fields around the village of High Lane, essentially doubling the village’s size. Those housing developments have been proposed with little regard for the burden of increased traffic on the road network or the increased pressure on public services, as my hon. Friend the Member for Bolton West (Chris Green) said.