Greater Manchester Spatial Framework

Kate Green Excerpts

Wednesday 14th December 2016 Westminster Hall

[William Wragg]

The hon. Gentleman makes a very important point about the need for greater “joined-up thinking”, a phrase that is perhaps over-used but rarely put into practice.

It is in this spirit—of building where there is genuine need—that I wish to raise some specific concerns about the methodology behind the framework. The draft framework proposes that 227,200 net additional dwellings will be needed by 2035 to home a projected population increase of almost 300,000 people. It also apportions this house-building target across the 10 Greater Manchester councils, and in the case of Stockport, the allotted target is 19,300 new homes.

I have concerns about how these figures have been arrived at. To estimate the population growth, the spatial framework considered information from the Office for National Statistics, the Department for Communities and Local Government, an economic forecasting model, the Experian credit-referencing agency and independent business consultants. In 2014, the combined authority produced a 165-page document, outlining and consulting on its methodology for calculating future housing needs. Dozens of tables and graphs later, we arrive at the magic prediction of 294,800 extra people by 2035, which translates into that figure of 227,200 new dwellings that I gave before.

Forecasting is a very difficult and complex task, and it is always subject to a degree of uncertainty. However, taking just the most recent three forecasts from the ONS—from 2008, 2010 and 2012—there is a variance of almost 200,000 people between the highest and lowest estimates for the population of Greater Manchester by 2032. This means that the framework’s magic number is two thirds within the margin of error of the three most recent ONS forecasts, and that is without even cross-examining the four other sources.

It is also curious to observe that 10 large housing developers all claimed that the authority’s objectively assessed need figure was too low, whereas the Campaign to Protect Rural England claimed it was “excessively high”. Faced with such wild variance in the estimates of population growth, it is difficult to have faith in the combined authority’s arithmetic. One wonders whether the projected need goes beyond the true need.

[Kate Green (Stretford and Urmston) (Lab)]

I congratulate the hon. Gentleman on securing this debate. My constituents are also concerned that an absolute number is meaningless if it does not take account of the mix of housing need, which must be matched to the population. They have particularly expressed concern about the need for family homes and affordable homes. Does he agree?

[William Wragg]

I agree with the hon. Lady, who raises an important point.

My second major area of concern about the draft framework is the proposal to release green-belt land for housing development. It proposes to build on 4,900 hectares of Greater Manchester’s green belt, representing a net loss of just over 8%. Locally, Stockport is set to lose some 9% of its green belt. Some 8,000 homes will be built on green belt in the constituency of my hon. Friend the Member for Cheadle (Mary Robinson), whereas in my constituency permission will be given to build a further 4,000 homes on fields around the village of High Lane, essentially doubling the village’s size. Those housing developments have been proposed with little regard for the burden of increased traffic on the road network or the increased pressure on public services, as my hon. Friend the Member for Bolton West (Chris Green) said.

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[Simon Danczuk]

I appreciate the hon. Lady’s intervention. I completely agree: there needs to be diversity and a mix of accommodation created. The plan has to take that into account, but the plan is designed specifically for new development and is only in draft form. As I pointed out, I do not give the plan a blank cheque; it has to match the needs of every section of our communities.

As the hon. Member for Hazel Grove made clear, infrastructure must be provided with new development. It cannot be an afterthought; that is a particularly important point. I am talking about infrastructure in the broadest sense of the word—about schools, not just roads. I understand other Members’ concerns about the green belt and the need to prevent urban sprawl. While I do not dispute that access to green open spaces is important to people’s quality of life, surely it is equally, if not more, important to people’s wellbeing to have a roof over their head and a job—things that this plan provides.

[Kate Green]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Simon Danczuk]

I will just make a little progress.

I am fortunate that Rochdale has many green and open spaces, the vast majority of which will not be affected by the proposals. In fact, the plan promises to create alternative green-belt land in Rochdale, which will go some way to compensating for what is lost. Additionally, many of the development sites in Rochdale will be brownfield sites, using up wasteland and former industrial areas, so it is not as though the proposal has set out to target green-belt land without considering other options first.

Finally, we need to consider the bigger picture. We need to welcome the opportunities provided in the spatial framework—the jobs, the homes and a real plan to tackle national challenges and boost productivity in the north-west. No scheme will be perfect. While we scrutinise and improve the draft proposals, we must also show a degree of pragmatism and, indeed, political leadership.

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[Mary Robinson]

Absolutely. That uncertainty adds to our feeling about the plan. The framework notes that significantly improved public transport is a prerequisite for the site off the A34. However, the walking distance between Woodford and Bramhall and Poynton railway stations is certainly a lot more than 15 minutes, even for the most ardent trekker.

[Kate Green]

The hon. Lady makes an important point about transport links. Does she share my surprise that transport operators—both bus and train operators—told me that they have no knowledge of the details of the proposed spatial strategy and that they have no plans to adapt their forward planning to take account of what might be in the strategy?

[Mary Robinson]

That is an excellent point well made. That is lacking in the plan. When it comes to the northern powerhouse and what we want to do in Greater Manchester, it is essential that we get those transport links right. That needs to be considered.

Finally, I make a plea to the Minister to listen to local voices. It is important that people’s voices are heard in this consultation and through the other representations that they make. Local people have already formed themselves into groups, such as the Woodford Neighbourhood Forum, to plan and shape their neighbourhoods.