World Economic Outlook: UK Growth and Inflation
Lord Wallace of Saltaire Excerpts(2 weeks, 2 days ago)
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Lord Wallace of Saltaire (LD)
My Lords, I declare an interest as a recipient of very considerable welfare payments in the form of my old-age pension and my wife’s old-age pension. The whole discussion about cutting welfare seems to leave out the very substantial chunk of welfare that goes to those of us who are retired. Does the Minister think that all the effort in cutting welfare has to be on the young, or does he think that any discussion about cutting welfare has to include the old as well?
Lord Livermore (Lab)
Clearly, we need a welfare system that works. No one believes that the system that we inherited is working. It abandoned too many people to a life on benefits, wrote off too many people as too sick to work and condemned too many children to be too poor to eat. That is why we are reforming the welfare system.
Tax Increases
Lord Wallace of Saltaire Excerpts(9 months, 4 weeks ago)
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Lord Livermore (Lab)
Why does the noble Baroness think the UK has such a high stock of debt? Is it because her Government doubled the national debt? Yes, it is.
Lord Wallace of Saltaire (LD)
My Lords, I was very struck by the article in the Times the other day by Paul Johnson, former leader of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, in which he said that we have an entirely illusory debate about tax and spend. There are calls from a substantial number of newspapers and at least one political party for tax cuts, but nobody ever says where they will fall or what our spending parameters are. This Government have made a commitment to raise our defence spending by over 1% of GDP, which I assume that all the major parties support. That means that tax rises are likelier than tax cuts, unless there are severe cuts elsewhere—for example, in pensions. Could the Government not make some attempt to reach an agreement among the parties such that, when discussing taxes rising and falling, we also discuss what the spending priorities are and what cuts may necessarily be possible?
Lord Livermore (Lab)
In the spending review, the Government set out our spending plans and a fully funded path to spending 2.6% of GDP on defence. We have an ambition to increase it to 3% in the next Parliament, as the noble Lord knows. I will not speculate on the next Budget now. As I have said, there will be an OBR forecast in the autumn before the annual Budget and we will make decisions based on it, in the usual way.
Unpaid Tax
Lord Wallace of Saltaire Excerpts(10 months ago)
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Lord Livermore (Lab)
It is not for me to comment on individual tax affairs, but of course HMRC will treat every taxpayer fairly.
Lord Wallace of Saltaire (LD)
My Lords, in pursuing tax evasion, the question of information from our dependent territories is key. There was an agreement between the Treasury and the dependent territories on the provision of fuller information about ownership of assets there as they relate to tax evasion here. We are well aware that a number of dependent territories— particularly the British Virgin Islands—have not yet implemented that agreement. Are the British Government pushing them to do so?
Regional Growth
Lord Wallace of Saltaire Excerpts(11 months ago)
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Lord Livermore (Lab)
I agree with the noble Lord’s points. He asks about the Green Book. He has much more experience in this matter than I do. We have set out—and I hope that he agrees—that for too long the guidance in the Green Book has been biased against certain parts of the country. We want to address that. On whether we will prioritise the spending on where it has the greatest return, yes, this is key to the methodology that the Green Book sets out. The Green Book reinforced investment in areas that were already successful. It did not necessarily enable investment in areas where there was a high degree of potential. That is what we want to do. By investing in areas of high potential, there will be huge returns. We have already set this out. There could be a potential increase of about 3% of GVA if we can get the city regions up to the average productivity of the country, as the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, said. That is the intention and why we are doing what we are doing.
The noble Lord talked about the importance of fiscal responsibility. He will know that this Government inherited a £22 billion black hole in the public finances. Restoring fiscal responsibility is the central driving purpose of the stability pillar of our growth mission. We have set out very clear fiscal rules that require no borrowing for day-to-day spending, unlike the previous Government, who had that £22 billion black hole in their day-to-day spending. We have repaired that. At the first opportunity, when the fiscal rules were tested at the Spring Statement, we repaired the headroom against the fiscal rules in full to what it was before. We have set out very clear fiscal rules. We will stick to them, and everything that we set out in the spending review next week will be shown to be fully funded and fully in line with the fiscal rules.
Lord Wallace of Saltaire (LD)
My Lords, I welcome the proposals. I remind the Minister that the Leeds tram scheme was cancelled by the last Labour Government in 2009, so it is very good to see it coming back 26 years later.
I note that the Statement says that modern growth
“relies on dynamic, interconnected city regions”.
I live on the outskirts of Bradford, the largest city in Britain without a mainline station. I am conscious that the lack of a decent trans-Pennine link and the overcrowding of the existing rail links between Leeds and Manchester is a huge problem for interconnection between three potentially vital regions of Britain—West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire and Greater Manchester. I remind the Minister that a new trans-Pennine rail link, Northern Powerhouse Rail, was talked about, planned and proposed, on and off, throughout the last Government. We need to make something which will be transformative for the entire north of England.
Lord Livermore (Lab)
I am grateful to the noble Lord for his support and for what he says. He knows much more about that region than I do. He will know that in the previous Budget, we funded the trans-Pennine upgrade for the work that was under way. We gave a further £2.1 billion investment for West Yorkshire yesterday, which will deliver for the West Yorkshire mass transit system, linking up Bradford, Kirklees, Calderdale, Wakefield, Pudsey and Leeds. I hope that goes some way towards what he is asking for. There will be further transport announcements in the spending review next week. I look forward to debating those then.
Tax: Changes
Lord Wallace of Saltaire Excerpts(1 year ago)
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Lord Wallace of Saltaire (LD)
My Lords, do the Government remember the distinction made by the previous Conservative Government between people who were from somewhere and people who might be from anywhere? It was made with the clear intention of saying that people who liked going abroad were somehow not fully loyal to England; they were more European or something else. Given that distinction, which the previous Conservative Government and their Prime Minister made, is it not now a little hypocritical to say we need to defend those who might easily move away to Dubai, Thailand or Monaco, rather than the interests of people who are committed to this country?
Lord Livermore (Lab)
I remember the “citizens of nowhere” comment that the noble Lord refers to. I think that, like much of what the previous Government did, it was not an encouraging thing to say. But let us remember that it is not for me to justify what the previous Government did. This Government are committed to addressing unfairness in the tax system so that everyone who makes their home in the UK pays their taxes here. I think that is absolutely the right principle from which we should proceed. Both the previous Government and this Government increased taxes on non-doms because it is necessary to raise revenue to repair the public finances and fund our public services. That is the fairest way of raising the necessary revenue while ensuring the UK remains an attractive place to live and invest.
Budget: Taxes and Borrowing
Lord Wallace of Saltaire Excerpts(1 year, 6 months ago)
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Lord Livermore (Lab)
On inheritance tax, currently the largest estates pay a lower effective tax rate than the smaller estates. I do not think that that can be right. Agricultural property relief is given on top of the normal inheritance tax thresholds. Individuals can pass up to £500,000 to a direct descendant, and then agricultural property relief would provide a further £1 million tax-free allowance. This means a couple can pass on up to £3 million tax free. Above that, there is a 50% discount on inheritance tax, so a rate of only 20% applies, and any liability can be paid in 10 yearly instalments. This seems to me to be pretty fair in the context of the decisions we have taken and in the context of what everyone else in society gets.
Lord Wallace of Saltaire (LD)
This Budget provided only a limited increase in defence spending, under circumstances in which the Ukraine war is depleting British stocks and our Armed Forces are under very considerable strain. If the Government were to consider that they needed to increase defence spending further, and to raise tax for that, would they be confident that the Conservative Party would support that, or do they think they would oppose it?
Working From Home: Public Sector Productivity
Lord Wallace of Saltaire Excerpts(1 year, 6 months ago)
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Lord Livermore (Lab)
The noble Lord makes an interesting point. The Government inherited a situation where public service productivity remained 6.4 % below pre-pandemic levels, and the ballooning size of the Civil Service—as he described it—under the previous Government may have contributed to that. I do not know the answer to that, but the Chancellor has been very clear that the Government will establish a programme of public sector reform to drive much greater productivity, improving the quality of public services and the value for money that we receive.
Lord Wallace of Saltaire (LD)
My Lords, the Government have inherited a rather shrunken Whitehall estate from their Conservative predecessors, where hot-desking had become the norm in a number of departments. Are the Government confident that, if all civil servants turned up five days a week, there would be enough desks for them to sit at?
Lord Livermore (Lab)
No, there would not. One of the benefits of working from home is a much more efficient use of office space. It has a beneficial impact on capital in terms of releasing office space for more productive use, and that is currently what is under way.
Defence Funding
Lord Wallace of Saltaire Excerpts(1 year, 11 months ago)
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Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)
The Government have published figures in accordance with the OBR forecasting period, which sets out exactly how this uplift will be met. The OBR forecast goes out to 2028-29, and obviously the uplift goes out further than that. For example, in 2028-29 there will be an extra £4.5 billion, which will be met through an increase of £1.6 billion in R&D spending and £2.9 billion from reducing headcount in the Civil Service to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019.
Lord Wallace of Saltaire (LD)
Can the Minister reassure us that it is the Treasury’s view that an increase in defence expenditure to 2.5% of GDP is compatible with the promise of further tax cuts, without further cuts in other public spending areas?
Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)
I can assure the noble Lord that this has no impact on our ambition to further cut taxes in future. We want to end the unfairness of double taxation of work—we have cut employees’ national insurance contributions by a third—so we do not see that this is incompatible.
Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing (High-Risk Countries) (Amendment) Regulations 2023
Lord Wallace of Saltaire Excerpts(2 years, 9 months ago)
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Lord Wallace of Saltaire (LD)
My Lords, we come to this with several of us having been involved in the economic crime Bill and the National Security Bill, in which we touched on a number of related issues. Some of us, indeed, complained when the economic crime Bill was before us that there was a tendency in that Bill to treat economic crime as if it was entirely domestic, when anyone who knows a small amount about the subject knows that all serious economic crime is transnational and that one has to co-operate actively with other countries to combat it.
There was no reference to the FATF in the discussions on the economic crime Bill, but I thank the Treasury very much for the extensive briefing that my noble friend Lord Fox and I were given the other week on the FATF. It was extremely helpful and detailed, and showed how actively some parts of the Treasury are engaged in—one has to say this in the light of the comment by the noble Lord, Lord Vaux—trying to make the FATF work, or work better.
The FATF is a large, multinational organisation. I used to teach a course in international relations when I was an academic at the London School of Economics. I had to explain that it is a miracle that any international organisation works, because the difficulties are so intense. One has to recognise that there are limits to how far you can get agreement when you have as many member states as the FATF has, many of which are autocracies and systemically corrupt themselves. This creates considerable difficulties.
I was struck, as was my colleague and noble friend Lord Purvis, by the oddity that we have of course regained our sovereignty by leaving the dreadful European Union, which produced regulations that we had to adopt, only to align ourselves entirely with a much larger, looser and more opaque organisation, the FATF, in which we apparently follow what the noble Lord, Lord Vaux, described as its idiosyncratic listings. As I understand it, this is the grey list rather than the blacklist. I will talk a little about who is on the list.
There are two UK overseas territories on the list, which are listed as third countries. I point out to start with that the idea that an overseas territory is a third country is incompatible with the definition of a British Overseas Territory. That corresponds to the deep ambiguity with which the relationship between His Majesty’s Government and the overseas territories is carried on in so many different areas. It is, one would have thought, a scandal of British governance that there are overseas territories on the grey list. When I mentioned some issues to do with Gibraltar on the economic crime Bill, I rapidly received a communication from the Gibraltar Government. I am sure that the noble Lord, Lord Vaux, will shortly receive one in his turn. I understand that the fact that Gibraltar is still on the list relates more to delays in carrying a number of things through the Gibraltar Government than to the depths of the problem. The Cayman Islands, I suspect, is a more serious problem.
The Gibraltar Government said to me, “You have to understand that it is very much part of our position that we are entirely independent in how we carry through our adoption of these various new proposals”. As far as international illicit finance is concerned, the Treasury should be concerned that several British Overseas Territories—not just these two—have some things to answer on this area. They benefit from UK sovereignty and the UK system of law. In turn, that puts obligations on them to follow much more closely than some do, some of the time, British standards in this respect.
I hope that the Treasury has an active dialogue with the FCDO, which is responsible for the overseas territories, and that it pushes the Foreign Office to ensure that the overseas territories do not, as they have in a number of other areas, say that they will meet British standards— I am talking about transparency in beneficial ownership —then spend much longer than we had anticipated bringing their domestic practices in line with what the UK Government recommend.
I follow my noble friend Lord Purvis in asking some questions about the UAE, which is a major financial centre and has close links with the UK. There are 100,000 British citizens living there, some of them wealthy expats. The fact that the UAE is also on the grey list is a matter of real concern. I am sure that the Minister is aware that the largest donation given to the Conservative Party in the first three months of this year came from someone whose financial interests are centred in Dubai; I understand that the donor is also the treasurer of the Conservative Party and a former Minister in an Egyptian Government. This is just one illustration of how we perhaps ought to pay more attention to the delicacy of our financial and political relations with the UAE. On the importance of Dubai and Abu Dhabi as financial centres, as well as the worries and proper concerns that one has about them, I, alongside my noble friend Lord Purvis, note that the Wagner Group has managed its various transactions and financial arrangements through Dubai; this is not something that we should be happy about at all.
There are a number of questions to answer here. I am grateful for the briefing on the FATF that the Treasury provided for us, but Parliament deserves to be told more about this murky area of finance in which not just the overseas territories but, dare one say it, sometimes our Crown dependencies are caught up and which we ought to be more actively engaged in cleaning up as far as we can.
Baroness Chapman of Darlington (Lab)
My Lords, I am aware that we always follow the FATF’s recommendations but, given what we have just heard, it is just as well that we have this procedure as an opportunity to ask the Minister about some issues of concern that arise from the recommendations we are considering. I will not repeat everything that has already been said, because immediately following this we have another SI that took three and a half hours to consider in the Commons and, looking around the Room, I anticipate that it may take a little while this afternoon as well.
This instrument is perhaps relatively straightforward, but I will highlight a couple of the points that have been made in which we are especially interested. On the issue of reputation and our overseas territories, the fact is that Gibraltar and the Cayman Islands are on this list. Do the Government think that this has any reputational impact on the UK? What is the Government’s assessment of that? When this issue was considered in the Commons, providing some kind of support or input from the UK to Gibraltar to move things along was discussed. I do not think that the Minister there gave a particularly expansive response at that point so it might be helpful, if there is an opportunity, to hear from the Minister here today whether a request has been made by Gibraltar and whether any input has been forthcoming from the UK.
I will leave it there for today, given the next SI that we will consider and the fulsome contributions that have already been made by others, which I know the Minister will answer fully.
Cross-Government Cost Cutting
Lord Wallace of Saltaire Excerpts(3 years, 5 months ago)
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Baroness Penn (Con)
I put it to the noble Lord that there is a cost to not having efficiency and value for money in our services. That means we can deliver less for people for the money that we are putting into them. We want to see it the other way around, and that is the aim of this review.
Lord Wallace of Saltaire (LD)
Does the Treasury consider capacity when enforcing efficiency cuts on other departments? Later this afternoon we shall discuss the National Security Bill, which has several clauses imposing a new foreign influence registration scheme, which will lead to a great surge in new submissions to the Home Office, which I suspect it does not currently have the capacity to cope with, so it will need to recruit additional civil servants. The Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill will also impose new tasks as they are repatriated from tasks we used to share with our European allies. We know what happened when the Home Office cut police numbers and when the criminal justice system’s budget was cut: capacity decreased and the Government are now having to recruit additional police officers. Does the Treasury think about this or is it simply budget-cutting?
Baroness Penn (Con)
Can I reassure the noble Lord that these questions are considered in spending reviews? They are also considered as part of the process of collective agreement when new policy is made between the periods of spending reviews. The noble Lord mentioned the MoJ and the Home Office; they will grow by, respectively, 3.6% and 3.1% a year over this Parliament.