United States: Foreign Policy

Lord Turnberg Excerpts

Thursday 18th January 2018 Lords Chamber

[Lord Turnberg (Lab)]

My Lords, it is always a pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Alton. I join others in thanking the noble Lord, Lord Ashdown.

The virtually universal view of President Trump—at least around this Chamber and outside it—is that he is unbelievably inept at best and a malign force at worst. Internationally, he has finished up being the most reviled President for very many years. He campaigned on a platform of isolationism and protectionism mixed with a dose of racism, in order, he said, “to make America great again”. However, all he has succeeded in doing is leaving my American friends and relations wringing their hands in despair over his domestic policies, and he has brought America’s standing in the world to the lowest level for very many years. However, considerable dangers follow hard on the heels of those views of the man and the opinions that are now projected on to American values as a whole. Despite its President, America remains the dominant voice of western democracy, whatever Trump says or does.

At a time when there are huge dangers lurking around the world—as many have spoken about—when a Russia led by a predatory Putin is patrolling our skies and seas, intent on expanding his influence, when Chinese versions of civil liberties are inflicted on millions of their citizens, when a nuclear North Korea is making all sorts of warlike noises, when Iran, with its sponsorship of terrorism and untrammelled ballistic missile programme, is so unstable and the whole of the Middle East is in turmoil—when all this going on, we in the UK need to think very carefully indeed about jettisoning America and what it stands for when we and the rest of the democratic world need it most. We should especially think about that carefully when, as the noble Lord, Lord Hennessy, emphasised, we need to share intelligence. When America itself needs support, we should be careful how we react to its President’s outbursts. As we think of our long-term, post-Brexit trade needs, it is worth remembering that at worst he will be there only for eight years, and at best for four years, or maybe less.

However, there is one of Trump’s recent interventions on which I would like to focus—his proposal to move his embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. On this issue I am afraid that I must part company with one or two earlier speakers. It certainly has been the focus of many knee-jerk responses in the media but, surprisingly, with rather less dismay in the Middle East. Even the Palestinian response was muted, when it became obvious that protesters at the Damascus Gate were outnumbered by the TV and media reporters standing around. Provocative it was, but was it a profound change of policy given the facts of the case? First, it is worth remembering that west Jerusalem is where the Israeli Parliament and all its government departments are sited, together with its Supreme Court. It is faintly ridiculous to see ambassadors and their staff spending hours travelling from their embassies in Tel Aviv along the motorway to Jerusalem every day. The population of west Jerusalem is 95% Jewish and it is only in west Jerusalem that Trump is suggesting his embassy should be based.

East Jerusalem, on the other hand, is Arab by a large majority, and the Arab-Palestinian population there is growing. There is no way that Trump has proposed that the American embassy to Israel might be placed there. Now that would really be provocative. Indeed, he said in the same speech that the division between east and west Jerusalem would be entirely a matter for the two sides to agree between themselves. That was the second part of his speech, which was largely ignored. No matter that some Palestinians and Israelis speak of Jerusalem being their undivided capital, I cannot believe that any sensible person thinks that Israel will hand over western Jewish Jerusalem, with all its machinery of government, to Palestinian control, nor that it is to Israel’s advantage, in any way, to hang on to largely Palestinian east Jerusalem.

In truth, the battle is not about east and west Jerusalem and their burgeoning populations. It is about the Old City and specifically the Holy Basin, where the al-Aqsa mosque, so precious for the Muslims, and the Western Wall, so significant for the Jews, are sited. That is where the focus of all the most vital interests in Jerusalem lie and where there is so much mutual suspicion. President Trump did not say or imply anything about this most contentious of all the issues on Jerusalem. Resolution of who controls the Holy Basin has to await another day, perhaps another generation.

Moving an embassy to Jewish west Jerusalem seems to me rather less contentious. It recognises where Israel has placed its centre of government and does not preclude any negotiation between the two sides on what might happen to the rest of Jerusalem. This may be one of the few outpourings from President Trump with which I feel some agreement.

Middle East (IRC Report)

Lord Turnberg Excerpts

Tuesday 4th July 2017 Lords Chamber

[Lord Turnberg (Lab)]

My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Howell, and his committee are to be congratulated on this valuable report. I resonate to the very wise remarks of the noble Baroness, Lady Helic.

It goes without saying that the situation across most of the Middle East is unstable and very dangerous. The committee has done a remarkable job in analysing many of the issues. The idea that we should do more to reach out, especially to the more pragmatic states in the region, is certainly very well made. The problem is, of course, that the issues change every day. The recent stand-off between Saudi Arabia and Qatar is but one example, while the dangerous flurry of activity across Syria’s border with northern Israel is of concern. Some things never change, of course; Iran’s continuing belligerent stance against the West in general continues unabated, and, while I agree that we should try to get the Iranians to behave towards their dissidents in a more humanitarian way and that we should maintain some sort of relationship with them, we should sup with them with a very long spoon indeed. Their daily threats to annihilate Israel should be deeply worrying to us.

I will concentrate my remarks on the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, where our efforts in the UK are, quite rightly, to press for a two-state solution. According to recent opinion polls, incidentally, that is also the strong and heartfelt desire of the majority of both the Israeli and the Palestinian population.

The question I raise is whether the tenor of the report will help or hinder the desired two-state solution. I fear that it may be unhelpful in one or two ways. If we are to be taken notice of by either the Israelis or the Palestinians, we have to be sure to be even-handed and unbiased one way or the other. In this, I fear that the report may not be as balanced as it might be. Inevitably, that will make its recommendations less acceptable and less likely to be taken notice of in the region.

The reason I say this is that, in focusing heavily on the settlements and settlements alone, the report may be missing a trick. Of course the settlements are problematic. They encroach on Palestinian land and make it difficult for the Palestinians to develop their own state, and I would not downplay their importance in any way. But I fear that that is far from the whole story and that there are many other causes of the failure to reach the two-state solution that we all want—and unfortunately they are missing from this otherwise excellent report.

Israel is hardly going to be convinced to withdraw from the settlements on the basis of its experience after it withdrew from Gaza and from four settlement blocks in the West Bank in 2003. That just brought out the worst that a belligerent Hamas could inflict on Israel: multiple rocket attacks and a charter that promised the annihilation of Israel and the Jews. The 10-month pause in settlement building a few years later by Mr Netanyahu, at the behest of the Americans, in the vain hope that Mr Abbas would resume negotiations, was far from encouraging.

Little wonder that my Israeli taxi driver—those drivers are never short of an opinion, nor are they inhibited from expressing it—said, “The Palestinians just want to drive us into the sea”. If Israel is to be encouraged to withdraw from settlements, it is unlikely to do so without something more positive from the Palestinians—but continuing incitement to terror and violence by Hamas and, I fear, by Fatah too, fails to offer any reassurance on that front. They will have to offer something that will give the Israelis confidence that their security will not be compromised if they simply withdraw. They will have to see the Palestinians be more open to the idea that Israel will not be able to accept all the refugees, now grown from the original 750,000 to about 5 million; that not all of Jerusalem, including the Western Wall of the Jewish Temple, can become the capital—they may have to be satisfied with half of Jerusalem; and they will have to accept that Israel is a Jewish state, as Balfour and the British Government proposed 100 years ago.

Of course, all these ideas are not set in stone, and will have to be hammered out in direct negotiations between the two of them—yet there is little sign that Mr Abbas is willing even to start negotiations. That is why I fear that simply pressing the Israelis to withdraw from settlements in isolation from everything else that needs consideration is unlikely to be helpful. It is also unfortunate, too, that not much mention is made of the Arab peace plan emanating largely from Saudi Arabia. Should we not be doing more to encourage that?

Paragraph 247 of the report states:

“As political authority collapses in many Middle East countries, the UK needs a good working relationship with the remaining stable countries. We also recognise the shared interests: defence sales, non-defence commercial interests and trade, the fight against terrorism, and security of energy supply throughout the Gulf”.


This paragraph applies to the Gulf states, but could it not apply equally to Israel, a stable, democratic state with just as many shared interests that are enormously valued in the UK? The report talks elsewhere of the need to protect the Christian communities in the Middle East. Israel is the only country in the Middle East where the number of Christians is rising.

I was pleased to read the Government’s response, with its stress on bilateral negotiations between the two parties. That seems to me more rational than the idea of internationally inspired negotiations that the report seems to stress. I hope that the Minister will consider that my remarks have been made in a constructive way towards the two-state solution that we all want.

Israel and Palestine: Paris Peace Conference

Lord Turnberg Excerpts

Thursday 19th January 2017 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, this is about more than illegal settlements, although I have made it clear from this Dispatch Box that this Government view illegal settlements as an obstacle to peace. What I affirm, against the background of what the noble Lord has raised, is that the UK’s long-standing position on the Middle East peace process is clear: we continue to support a negotiated settlement leading to a safe and secure Israel living alongside a viable and sovereign Palestinian state, based on 1967 borders, with agreed land swaps, Jerusalem as the shared capital of both states, and a just, fair and agreed settlement for refugees.

[Lord Turnberg (Lab)]

My Lords, can I ask the Minister to speculate on what the attitude of the British Government would be if the French decided to hold a conference with 70 countries to discuss Northern Ireland but did not invite the British or Irish Governments?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, as I rather waspishly said, I think, in response to the noble Baroness, Lady Tonge, on Tuesday, I try not to speculate; I prefer to deal with what is. Indeed, in those 13 long, long years in opposition, I remember having my leg pulled very gently on the basis that I always wanted to know what works, and what works is having the two main parties involved in negotiations. Without the Israelis and the Palestinians coming to an agreement, there can be no lasting peace.

Israel and Palestine

Lord Turnberg Excerpts

Thursday 13th October 2016 Lords Chamber

[Lord Turnberg (Lab)]

My Lords, I, too, must declare my interest as a guest of the Israeli Government on the APPG visit earlier this year to Israel, the West Bank and the PLO offices in Ramallah.

When I told my Israeli granddaughter that I was speaking in a debate on the peace process, she said, “What peace process?”. She was simply reflecting the widespread cynicism among Israelis—and, I fear, among Palestinians, too. When Khalil Shikaki, the respected Palestinian pollster, conducted his recent public opinion poll, he found that only a minority of Palestinians believed in a two-state solution—and this is similar to Israeli opinion now. The saddest thing is that the reason they feel this way is that they believe the other side do not want it. That is a complete misunderstanding of the other, but it is no wonder when the only Israelis that Palestinians see are those in full army gear and the only Palestinians that Israelis see are knife-wielding and gun-wielding terrorists. Israelis believe that the Palestinians would throw them into the sea if they could, while Palestinians see the takeover of all the land they want for their own state. These entrenched positions are not helped by the size of the problems facing the two sides.

Despite all the attention given to the settlements, these are not the biggest problem. Withdrawal from settlements in the Sinai, Gaza and from four settlements in the West Bank shows that the principle of withdrawal is established, given sufficient security measures for Israel. The biggest problems are not those: they are the position of future borders, the return of refugees—as we have heard—and, perhaps biggest of all, the position of Jerusalem that is so important to Muslims and Jews. Of course, there must also be the renunciation of violence and a willingness to accept the idea that Israel is a Jewish state.

Solutions to all these problems have been on the table many times: withdrawal from most settlements with land swaps for the towns immediately adjacent to Jerusalem; the return of a small number of refugees to Israel, and resettlement and compensation for others; a division of Jerusalem into Muslim and Jewish halves along the lines of one or other of the enormous number of proposals that have been made over the years; a just solution for the Palestinians and security for Israel. But something always gets in the way of a final agreement: an assassination, a terrorist attack, incitement to violence and so on.

Now there is doubt that Mr Abbas is even interested in trying to negotiate. He is deeply unpopular at home for having achieved so little for his people and for the corruption that permeates his regime. Mr Netanyahu is not trusted, even though he keeps saying that he will go anywhere, at any time, to negotiate face to face, without preconditions. But now there seems to be a glimmer of hope with the initiative of President Sisi of Egypt and the Arab peace initiative led by Saudi Arabia. There is a remarkable alignment of interests between the pragmatic Arab states and Israel as they face the common threats of Iran and ISIL.

There is an opportunity for the UK to give its strong support to these initiatives, and to exert pressure on Mr Abbas to take up Sisi’s offer to mediate. Mr Netanyahu has already agreed, and now would be a good time to test whether he is as wedded to a peaceful two-state solution as he professes. There are tantalising glimpses of what the future could mean for Palestinians and Israelis. Will it take a long time? Probably. Will it require new leaders with fresh approaches? Almost certainly. Is it worth all the effort and pain? Absolutely.

Gaza

Lord Turnberg Excerpts

Monday 6th July 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Turnberg (Lab)]

My Lords, I am afraid that I must admit to being among the usual suspects gathered for this debate. It is pretty obvious that I, on my part, tend to defend Israel but I do so with some knowledge and a great deal of sympathy for the citizens of Gaza. I meet young medical researchers from Gaza who come to the UK on travel fellowships that my wife and I support from our charity. They tell me how hard life is and about the worries they have for the future of their children. They have many reasons to worry, not least because Hamas keeps a very tight hold on everything they do and does not brook any disagreement from its citizens.

It was Hamas that cut off the nose of its people to spite its face by destroying all 3,000 huge greenhouses that Israel left behind 10 years ago. More importantly from the political perspective, it removed all trace of Fatah, the opposition party, when it came to power by expelling its members or killing them off. I can tell the noble Lord, Lord Ahmed, that it is Hamas that has contempt for life. These are not nice people. Mr Abbas has never been able to visit Gaza out of fear for his life. It is clear now that the PA and Hamas are incompatible and their so-called unity Government dead. That nice Mr Abbas even accused Hamas of treachery for recently hinting that it might be willing to talk about a peace deal with Israel, according to something called “Middle East media sources”. That is remarkable but apparently true.

Hamas split from the PA and is becoming increasingly isolated. It lost the support of Egypt because of its strong links with the Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt has now become an outright enemy, at least for the moment. Meanwhile, more extreme groups nibble away at Hamas’s political base. It is losing the support of Qatar and others in the Middle East as aid for reconstruction from there has almost dried up—despite the promises. It is even in the firing line, as we heard, from ISIL, which promised to annihilate Hamas as well as the Jews in a recent somewhat surprising outburst. Its main remaining friend is Iran, which continues to supply arms and other support.

One of the major sources of income for Hamas was the tax it placed on goods smuggled through the tunnels from Egypt. That made many Hamas officials into millionaires. It may surprise your Lordships but yes, there are millionaires in Gaza. However, now Hamas feels the squeeze and is increasingly reliant on the tax it puts on the 15,000 tonnes of goods that Israel ships across every day. That is 500 truckloads of materials every day. There are also more than 1,000 people going across into Israel: businessmen, patients coming to hospital and so on. There is more to do, of course. However, I say to my noble friend Lord Judd that Hamas refused to allow the Palestinian Authority, let alone the UN, to monitor the crossings. Contrast all that with the recent failed attempt to bring in this Swedish ship, which was found to contain actually very little aid at all. It was a political gesture. If the political and financial position has weakened for Hamas, its relations with the PA are deteriorating and its support from the rest of the Middle East fading, does the Minister think there is any prospect that Hamas will drop its demands that Israel be destroyed? What is the Government’s assessment of reports that Hamas will contemplate discussing a peace deal with Israel? Are the Government here doing everything they can to help that?

Finally, I will say something about proportionality and the accusation that Israel’s response to the thousands of rockets fired at it was out of proportion. There is no doubt that the people of Gaza suffered terribly in the recent wars. However, it is the nature of the threat to which a response should be proportional. Where was the proportionality in the bombing by the allies in Kosovo when there were many civilian casualties on the ground with not a single US or UK casualty? What about the bombing now of Iraq, Yemen and potentially in Syria by the US and ourselves? It is hard to imagine that there are no civilian casualties there yet we have none on our side. It is the nature of the threat that determines the response and unfortunately Israel has an existential threat on its doorstep. Why did Hamas not allow its citizens into the tunnels it has in large numbers for smuggling and attack? It must bear some responsibility for its civilian deaths. While I do not view the deaths of women and children with any equanimity at all—indeed, I am very distressed by them—I just do not buy the proportionality argument. The oppressed citizens of Gaza deserve better but that can be achieved only when Hamas changes its belligerency and seizes the opportunity to talk about peace instead of war and destruction.

Middle East and North Africa

Lord Turnberg Excerpts

Thursday 30th October 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Turnberg (Lab)]

My Lords, I, too, very much appreciate the balanced and impressive way in which the noble Lord, Lord Risby, introduced this debate. Just as he said, the Arab spring came as a complete surprise, and the terrible winter that has followed seems to have caught most people unawares, too.

It is not impossible to imagine that we will see the establishment of an extreme fundamentalist Islamic state across a large swathe of the Middle East within a few years; and if you think that this will be dangerous for the West and a severe threat to many countries in the Middle East, then just imagine what it must mean for that 15 or 20 mile-wide narrow strip of land along the Mediterranean coast known as Israel.

The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is a burning issue that desperately needs resolving but it is hard to credit the idea of some that this is the cause of all the rest of the problems in the Middle East. But it is undoubtedly the case that the rise of ISIS, the unstable situation in Egypt, and a nuclear Iran all have a marked influence on Israel and the Palestinians as they search for peace. There should be no doubt that Israel wants to live in peace with its neighbours; its future is entirely dependent on it. However, it is negotiation between the two parties that is the key there.

Even though the overall shape of what a two-state solution might look like has been clear for some time, nothing is so simple and there are many sticking points. Israeli Government settlement policies are clearly problematic and win them few friends around the world. However, it is clear that the settlement issue is not the only problem or even the main one, as we saw a couple of years ago when there was a freeze on settlements for 10 months in the vain hope that this would bring Mr Abbas back to the table and when, instead, he raised new pre-conditions. The right of return and the status of Jerusalem remain open for discussion and the inability of Mr. Abbas to recognise Israel as a Jewish state is problematic.

From Israel’s point of view it is always the three problems: security, security and security, which now is even more significant as the fundamentalist threat of ISIS looms large just a few miles away. Israelis are all too aware that withdrawal from Gaza and southern Lebanon was immediately followed by the rise of Hamas and Hezbollah, each posing considerable threats with their rockets and missiles, backed up by repeated threats to remove Israel from the face of the earth. Imagine, then, what would happen after a peace deal if Hamas gains power in the West Bank, as is entirely possible. What, too, if the long, currently peaceful, border with Jordan is changed into a severely dangerous one in which an ISIS-driven fundamentalism sweeps across Jordan? Either case would leave extremely antagonistic forces within a mile of Israel’s Parliament and its international airport.

Furthermore, Israel does not view with any equanimity the unstable position in Egypt, with the Muslim Brotherhood overflowing into the Sinai desert along another long, exposed border with Israel. When some say, therefore, that Israel should not be so concerned with security, they clearly cannot have heard the voices of Hamas and others spewing out a rhetoric of death and destruction to Jews in general and Israel in particular. If some suggest that Israel should rely on an international peacekeeping force to act as a buffer, they have not noticed what happened when the UN forces in the Golan were captured recently and had to flee, or the ineffectiveness of the UN in southern Lebanon in preventing the build-up of huge numbers of long-range missiles in the villages there. Nor do international bodies now seem to be capable of preventing the avowed aims of Hamas to rearm and rebuild its tunnels into Israel.

Of course, Israel has its own problems, with many within Israel voicing strong opposition to government policies. But the point here is that it is a democratic, multicultural society, where almost a quarter of its population is Arab and, somewhat surprisingly, there is a member of the Muslim Brotherhood among its Arab-elected Members of Parliament. Opposing views are frequently and vehemently expressed without fear of being shot, as happened recently in Gaza when a dozen citizens were dragged out of a mosque and shot in the head for daring to voice opposition to Hamas. The terrible, tragic loss of civilian life in the recent conflict in Gaza was greeted with distress by many in Israel, but when accusations of “proportionality” are levelled, they wonder why similar accusations are not being levelled against the West when, in our efforts to bomb ISIS, we are killing large numbers of women and children in Syria and Iraq. Where is the proportionality there—or, indeed, in Kosovo a few years ago?

Israeli society is far from uniform and has very mixed views about its conflict with the Palestinians. However, the vast majority believe that the Palestinians should have a state of their own, and that can happen only through negotiation with Israel. After all, each party is most concerned with what their neighbour will look like; where their borders will be; whether they will choose conflict or peace; or what position they will adopt about Jerusalem. Only negotiation with Israel will do it. It is negotiation that we should be pressing on both Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Abbas, not encouraging a vain search for a status from a world that is in no position to grant it.

We in the UK should be seeking allies in the Middle East that Britain sorely needs. What conversations are our Government having with the Jordanians, the Egyptians and the Saudi Arabians about their reactions to the jihadi threats? Qatar seems to be playing a particularly cynical and dangerous role in all this mix and mayhem. What reassurances did the Prime Minister receive in his recent conversations with the Emir of Qatar about the funding of terrorist groups in ISIS, Hamas and Hezbollah?

I hope that the Minister will expand on these questions and on the Government’s position on the Palestine and Israel negotiations.

Palestine

Lord Turnberg Excerpts

Wednesday 16th July 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

My noble friend makes an important point. However, sadly, the original timetable of six months from June—which was when it was anticipated that elections would take place once the technocratic Government had been formed—looks much more vulnerable because of the current situation. At this stage, all minds are focused on a ceasefire but, of course, we hope that elections will follow thereafter.

[Lord Turnberg (Lab)]

My Lords, leaving aside the failure of Hamas to accept the ceasefire that Israel accepted yesterday, does the noble Baroness agree that it is extremely difficult for Israel to continue to exchange security intelligence with a Government who get their main support, or part of it, from an organisation that is committed to Israel’s destruction, let alone to engage in meaningful negotiations with them?

[Baroness Warsi]

The noble Lord will be aware that no members of Hamas have formed the technocratic Government, which of course we welcome. However, it is important that we do not leave aside positions as regards the ceasefire. We welcomed Egypt’s attempt to secure a ceasefire, the Palestinian Authority’s endorsement of it and President Abbas’s commitment in calling on the different Palestinian factions to accept it. The Israelis’ acceptance in principle of the proposed ceasefire and the support for it from the Arab League are positive things, which I hope will soon form the basis of a ceasefire.

Israel and Palestine

Lord Turnberg Excerpts

Tuesday 8th April 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

The issue of human rights was raised by my right honourable friend the Prime Minister on his visit to Israel and the Occupied Territories in mid-March. I do not know what the response was. If I get it, I will write to the noble Lord.

[Lord Turnberg (Lab)]

My Lords, it is extremely unfortunate, if unsurprising, that the talks seem to be breaking down. Instead of the blame game that will undoubtedly follow, with the Palestinians blaming the Israelis for not releasing prisoners and continuing to build on the West Bank, and Israel accusing the Palestinians of going to the UN before they have agreed to go and not agreeing that the Jewish state exists, should we not be thinking of a plan B? Are the Government thinking of any advice they can give to both parties to bring them to some sort of agreement, at least in the interim?

[Baroness Warsi]

My right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary spoke to President Abbas last week, and is hoping to speak to the Israelis later this week. There has been an unprecedented EU package, in which we have played a part, which is on the table—socially, economically, politically and developmentally—if this peace deal were to be reached. That is why we keep stressing to both parties that this is not about the blame game; I agree with the noble Lord. This is about continuing to support a process which, at this stage, is still on the table.

Israel and Palestine

Lord Turnberg Excerpts

Monday 24th March 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Scotland of Asthal (Lab)]

My Lords—

[Lord Turnberg (Lab)]

My Lords, the bad behaviour of soldiers from any country is inexcusable, but is the noble Baroness aware of the many efforts made by Israel to support the Palestinians on the other side? These efforts relate to the economy, where the GDP in the West Bank is rising by about 7% a year, to the number of Arabs in East Jerusalem and Jerusalem, which is increasing at a greater rate than that of the Jewish population, and to the large numbers of Palestinians who are being treated in Israeli hospitals across the country, as well, incidentally, as those wounded from Syria. Should the UK not be concentrating on pressure on Mr Abbas to continue negotiations so that we can get to a two-state solution that the vast majority of the population in Israel supports?

[Baroness Warsi]

The Government have always been quick to recognise the progress that has been made on positive action by the Israeli Government. However, that does not take away from the real and serious concerns that we have in relation to child detainees, for example, that I know the noble and learned Baroness, Lady Scotland, was trying to get in on. We have concerns about IDF actions and continue to raise them at the highest level.

Syria and the Middle East

Lord Turnberg Excerpts

Monday 1st July 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Turnberg]

My Lords, I thank the noble Baroness, Lady Warsi, for introducing this debate in her usual balanced way.

The complexity of the situation in Syria is such that the seemingly simple question of whether to arm or not to arm cannot be answered without the prospect of provoking more harm than good. What sort of arms are we talking about and whom should we give them to, given that there are over 100 different factions from Islamic extremists to small local militias? And how do we in the UK fit into the grand scheme in which Russia and Iran, together with Hezbollah, are busily arming the ruling party and Saudi Arabia and Qatar are pouring in weaponry for various Sunni groups? It sounds to me like a situation we would be better off keeping out of, apart from offering humanitarian aid, frustrating as that might seem. Needless to say, I agree with my noble friend Lord Wood of Anfield, and I resonate very much with the wise words of the noble Lord, Lord Howell of Guildford.

I should like to focus my remarks on a slightly different area: the impact of what is going on in the Middle East in the Israeli-Palestinian so-called peace process. There is little doubt that Israel is regarded as the number one enemy across most of the rest of the Middle East, and the anti-Israel and anti-Semitic rhetoric in those countries is sometimes pretty horrific.

However, the problems that those nations face now are clearly nothing at all to do with Israel or the Palestinians. In most of them, what starts out as a popular uprising of oppressed people seeking to topple a dictatorial regime and gain a better life, and perhaps democracy, ends up with a vacuum rapidly filled by a vicious Sunni-Shia conflict, fuelled by clerics each denouncing the other as infidels. This is the case in Syria, in Lebanon and in Iraq, while in Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood has taken a shaky power in a struggle with the more secular elements. In Iran, as they spin their centrifuges and their leaders spin their web of deception, their primary objective is to become the dominant force in the Middle East, leading to the prospect of an arms race with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. I find it difficult to imagine that any of what is going on in those countries can be laid at the door of Israel. Israel is a useful scapegoat, but using it as a reason for their miseries does not bear close examination.

Of course, a peaceful, secure two-state solution is desperately needed by both Israelis and Palestinians, but even if we reach that nirvana it will make not a jot of difference to the struggles elsewhere in the Middle East. However, it is the influence on those two of what is going on elsewhere that is a major barrier. There is of course strong pressure from the USA in the shape of John Kerry to restart negotiations, as well as his offers of billions of dollars to Mahmoud Abbas for West Bank developments. Furthermore, surprisingly, if somewhat belatedly, Mr Netanyahu has recently reiterated several times his offer of talks without preconditions. He is even rumoured to have offered to stop settlement-building and the release of Palestinian prisoners as inducements to the Palestinians to resume negotiations. One hopes that that may be true. Mr Abbas has so far remained resistant and there is no doubt that there is considerable mistrust and cynicism on both sides, despite the fact that the outline of a potential two-state solution is not too difficult to make out. However, it is events elsewhere in the Middle East that might determine progress in the peace process.

Israel is distracted by the Iranian threat and events in Syria. It is hardly comforting for it to see what is going on in Syria with a potential change from one implacable enemy to another. At least with Assad it knew what it was getting, so it can hardly be a comfort to know that a change to an opposition possibly dominated by Islamic jihadists is in the offing.

However, it is the effect of those developments on the Palestinians where the most significant impact may be felt. Mr Abbas is likely to be very concerned that any move to reconcile his differences with Israel, the sworn enemy of the rest of the Middle East, will earn him few friends there. He will be looking over his shoulder at what impact a peace deal would have on his relationship with Hamas at home and on Hezbollah, Syria and Iran in his neighbourhood. He may see that his arm could be strengthened by a victory for either Assad or the opposition in Syria and so will feel that he is better off delaying any deal. He could hope that one or other of these victors could turn their attentions to attacking Israel with or without the threat of nuclear force from Iran. It might seem to him like signing a suicide note if he makes peace with Israel and at the same time makes enemies out of Hamas and much of the Arab world. He might feel that, just now, procrastination is the best option. Against this background of instability elsewhere his reluctance to negotiate could be more understandable.

Of course, events might turn out differently: a moderate power might take over in Syria, Hezbollah might go home with its tail between its legs as it loses Syrian support, Iran might become more conciliatory or more isolated and weakened, and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt might become less dominant, all of which might give greater courage to Mr Abbas. However, despite American pressure and support from Saudi Arabia, he might think that the buzzing, angry wasp’s nest to his north makes it preferable to wait than to gamble. He has, of course, the additional task of dealing with Hamas in Gaza and in the West Bank. Its hard line of non-collaboration in any peace deal means that he can speak for only a proportion of Palestinians. Furthermore, his stability is further compromised by the recent resignation of two Prime Ministers in quick succession, and that cannot help either. A strong leader is needed in any negotiations, so it is difficult to remain optimistic for the immediate future as so much depends on events elsewhere. There are little glimpses of hope here and there, but that depends to a very large extent on what happens in the rest of the Middle East.