Brexit

Lord Taverne Excerpts

Wednesday 2nd October 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Monks (Lab)]

My Lords, the Prime Minister said this morning in his Manchester speech that no deal,

“is an outcome for which we are ready”.

The noble Lord, Lord Callanan, repeated that in his introduction to this debate, and the noble Lord, Lord Lilley, has been trying to give some substance to that optimistic remark. I will focus my remarks on whether we are ready and the areas in which a no-deal operation could result in major problems for this country, and maybe seek a ministerial update on some of the problems with no-deal planning and whether we can assess whether the UK really is ready in a number of key areas.

It is about a month since we learned via a leak about Operation Yellowhammer. Members of this House will remember that this was a gloomy assessment of the state of the UK’s preparedness for no deal. However, the Government, in the shape of the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, explained that Yellowhammer was a worst-case scenario, that the issues flagged up in it were being addressed, that the assumptions were being regularly updated, that a review was under way and that substantial progress had been made. The Government continue to make reassuring and optimistic noises about there being no problems beyond, in the words of Mr Gove,

“some bumps in the road”.

So exactly what progress has been made? Can we learn whether Mr Gove’s cheerful assessment is still justified, or are the sobering, rather depressing messages of Yellowhammer still blindingly relevant? I will select a few issues out of many in the Yellowhammer leak. Perhaps the Minister will be able to bring us up to date on at least some of these in his reply. First, in the event of no deal, is it still the case that between 50% and 85% of trucks on the Dover-Calais route are not ready for French customs, despite the work that has been done on the Calais port facilities? That was what Yellowhammer said. Is it still the case that it could take three months to sort this out between Dover and Calais, meaning in the interim that a truck could expect to be delayed by between one and a half and two and a half days on that route?

I read in the paper this morning, rather contrary to what the noble Lord, Lord Lilley, said, that the chief executive of Dover had said that a no-deal situation would cost Dover £1 billion a week. That did not seem to me to be too optimistic about what no deal would mean. These are key factors in our future trade relationship with the European Union. Yellowhammer said there was a need for an agricultural food supply chain. Is that yet in place? If so, what is it and how will it work? Perhaps we can be told about that.

Shifting away from trade for a moment, in the event of Brexit UK citizens will lose their EU citizenship and access to services such as free emergency healthcare in other countries. What arrangements are being made to protect and advise British citizens in those circumstances? Is anything being planned? Can anything be done? What steps are being taken to limit expected rises in food prices in the event of no deal—rises that will impact particularly on the poorer sections of our society? Finally—this is perhaps an issue that has not been addressed in recent debates in this House—how can we stop clashes at sea between UK and EU fishermen if existing arrangements on respective shares of the channel, the North Sea and the Irish Sea lapse with nothing to replace them? We know that some fishing fleets are staffed by pretty excitable people in some countries, probably including parts of the UK.

As others have said, we are hearing a lot this week about “Get Brexit Done”, but my brief list of questions—there are many others, not least on the Irish situation, which I could easily have quoted—shows just how difficult a no-deal Brexit would be. As others have said, 31 October will not be the end, or even the beginning of the end; it will be merely the start of a tortuous negotiation that will take years, given the accusations and bad faith that will cloud it from the start and the poison in relationships that will develop from any no-deal situation. Does the Minister accept that that could be the case, and can he provide us with any enlightenment on progress, or the lack of it, since Operation Yellowhammer and on what a no-deal Brexit would really mean?

[Lord Taverne (LD)]

My Lords, I had not realised that I was the next speaker—

[Baroness Berridge (Con)]

My Lords, my noble friend Lord Saatchi is here.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Taverne]

My Lords, what a delightful speech. There was a lot of wisdom in it.

Let me cast caution to the winds and start by making three predictions. First, Boris will not get his deal. This now seems an almost uncontroversial forecast, judging by all the comments from Brussels.

Secondly, any challenge to the Benn Act, which the Government seem to ignore, will fail for the reasons advanced by the noble and learned Lord, Lord Goldsmith. So, without a deal at the end of the EU summit, Boris will be legally required to send a letter requesting an Article 50 extension of the Brexit debate.

Thirdly, and most controversially, Boris will not be Prime Minister at the end of October but will probably still be leader of his party. Why? He cannot send the letter that he will be legally obliged to send—he would sooner be dead in a ditch. He said that he will not disobey the law, but he also states that he will achieve his goal of Brexit by 31 October. The two aims are incompatible. The Supreme Court will almost certainly find means of making the law prevail. The only course left for him is to resign as PM or be deposed.

At this point, my crystal ball clouds over. It begins to look increasingly likely that, if Boris has not resigned, there will be a vote of no confidence and he will be replaced by a temporary Government of national unity. This will not be led by Corbyn. It is beginning to look likely that someone such as Margaret Beckett would be an acceptable Labour temporary PM.

The first act of such a Government must be to secure an extension of the date fixed for Article 50, and the second must be to call for a new referendum as the only way to resolve the present impasse. This must precede, and cannot be part of, a general election, because the referendum must offer a clear choice, this time based on actual knowledge of what Brexit means. By contrast, in a general election voters vote for different parties for a great variety of different reasons. It seems that Labour has sensibly come round to this view.

There are many problems surrounding the wording of the choice in a referendum, but the obvious clear referendum choice, without a withdrawal treaty, will be between a no-deal Brexit and remain. A general election is bound to follow. It will be very nasty, with the future of democracy at stake. As was eloquently described by the noble Lord, Lord Anderson of Ipswich—and as Boris has made clear—it will be the people against their enemies: Europe, Parliament, the courts and lawyers, the Civil Service and anyone who still believes MPs should be representatives, not delegates.

One reason that it will be unlike any previous election is the change in the Conservative Party. I am now in my 10th decade. When I was first elected as an Opposition MP in 1962, I had great respect for eminent Conservative leaders such as Macmillan, Butler, Macleod and Carrington, as well as thinkers such as Ian Gilmour.

Boris’s Conservative Party has ceased to be the party of parliamentary democracy of Locke and Burke. It has instead become the party of populist authoritarianism, which has adopted hook, line and sinker the doctrine of Rousseau—that the will of the people, as interpreted by the Government, must prevail over all dissent, the rule of law and the rights of the individual and minorities. Rousseau’s was the doctrine preached by Robespierre and the Committee of Public Safety, much favoured ever since by every autocrat from Mussolini to Hitler to Erdoğan. Is this really the kind of campaign and party that once-moderate Tories are now ready to support? Locke and Burke must be turning in their graves.

Brexit: Appointment of Joint Committee

Lord Taverne Excerpts

Wednesday 3rd July 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Taverne (LD)]

My Lords, I hope that one of the costs that the committee will consider in its deliberations is the cost of uncertainty. Industry longs for certainty and there is a widespread, strange view among many industrialists that leaving on 31 October at least brings certainty. They could not be more wrong. As the Governor of the Bank of England told the Commons Treasury Committee, a no-deal Brexit is,

“the worst way to resolve … uncertainty”.

It is obvious why. By definition, a no-deal Brexit means that we will not have a trade deal when we leave, after which it will take long and difficult negotiations before we know what the most important part of our future relations with the EU will be. And let us please note: in such negotiations we will no longer be able to use what Brexiters always argue is a vital bargaining ploy—the threat of walking away—because we will be out, and in a very weak bargaining position.

We cannot always trust Boris Johnson’s words, as the noble Lord, Lord Adonis, has pointed out, but here is nevertheless a policy that would be very difficult to abandon. Boris Johnson says that he will not pay our divorce bill, for debts we legally owe, until we have a deal. Mr Hunt has made a rather curious suggestion that he may withhold part of the divorce payment. Leaving aside the devastating consequences of telling the world that Britain is now a country that does not pay its debts, the EU will almost certainly sue us and refuse to negotiate until we have paid. Legal proceedings, which we would almost certainly lose, will drag out for many months, probably years—so much for the early end of uncertainty.

It is time industry faced reality and recognised that there is no upside to a no-deal Brexit. As for most of the Conservative Party, they are now rushing like lemmings towards a no-deal Brexit, including many who have acknowledged that no deal would be a catastrophe. It brings to mind, as I wrote in a letter published in the Guardian last week, the old Greek saying:

“Whom the Gods would destroy they first make mad”.

EU Withdrawal

Lord Taverne Excerpts

Wednesday 13th February 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Taverne (LD)]

My Lords, it is often forgotten that in May 1940, when we faced our deepest crisis, it was Labour, led by Clement Attlee, that saved Britain. It put country firmly before party, and, with the help of Tories who also put country first, ensured that Churchill became Prime Minister instead of Halifax, and so prevented a humiliating peace with Hitler. Today Labour is once again in a position to save Britain at a time of the greatest crisis since 1940. Alas, although that is the wish and the policies favoured by the Labour membership and supporters, unfortunately, a small group of ideologues has captured the party and defies the view of the vast majority of its members. Corbyn and his clique support Brexit, and even seek ways of making common cause with Theresa May to achieve it, whereas the membership opposes Brexit, and is in favour of remain and a new vote.

Corbyn has behaved dishonourably, indeed disgracefully. The letter to Mrs May before their meeting, drafted I gather by shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, referred to the fallback position—which is official Labour Party policy—of a further people’s vote. Before the letter was sent, that reference was deleted. When asked why, the answer was, “Oh, we forgot to put it in”. What duplicity—and why was Corbyn seeking to do a deal which would leave the present Government in power to 2022? It seems that it was so that the Tories could take the blame for the disaster of Brexit, and would be out of power for a generation. When Labour supporters become aware of this manoeuvring by a small clique to thwart their wishes, there will be an outcry. Their behaviour should be exposed to every party member, and shouted from the rooftops. Polls show that Corbyn already has a negative rating among Labour supporters and has lost the support of most party members. The power of this clique can be broken.

Consider our present circumstances. We are stumbling towards a no-deal Brexit, now judged by many to be the most likely result. Most in the Tory party still seem mainly concerned with preserving its unity—but now, as in 1940, is surely the time to forget about party. Should not Labour pro-Europeans come out and publicly announce that, unless Corbyn abandons his support for Brexit, they will no longer accept the Whip? I believe that, as in 1940, a significant number of Tory pro-Europeans will be willing to show that they are no less patriotic than their Labour colleagues, and will also put country before party. The effect on our politics would be dramatic. If all pro-European MPs now declare their support for a new people’s vote, and campaign to remain in a reformed European Union, to save British manufacturing, the service industry, and hundreds or even thousands of small businesses that cannot cope with Brexit, then Brexit can be stopped. Labour can once again give a lead, and save Britain.

Brexit: Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration

Lord Taverne Excerpts

Thursday 10th January 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Taverne (LD)]

My Lords, it has been my view, repeated perhaps too often in speech after speech in this House, that once the Government declared that they would not stay in the customs union and the single market, we were heading for no deal. Whatever ingenious schemes might be devised by top Brexit department civil servants, the Irish border question would remain insoluble—and it still is. The May deal is probably as near as any scheme can get to a solution, but still does not solve the problem in practice and seems certain to be defeated. Also, the Commission is right that no further negotiations can now solve it. There is no time. The Article 50 timetable can be extended, but not for further negotiations—Labour, please note.

In fact, probably the best and most certain way to avoid the disaster of a no-deal Brexit and, indeed, to obtain an extension of Article 50, is a new people’s vote. That a no-deal Brexit would be a disaster could not have been more clearly demonstrated than by the speeches of the noble Lords, Lord Hain and Lord Kerr, yesterday, and many others, including the noble Lord, Lord Brennan, today. But, I am told, a people’s vote does not currently command a majority in the Commons. Why? It is said to be undemocratic, because it would overturn the 2016 vote. Really? When did it become anti-democratic to reverse a vote if circumstances change? One of the few sensible things David Davis has said in recent times is that to deny a change of opinion is to deny democracy. Only dictatorships do not allow people to change their minds. In addition, where is the evidence that 52% of voters did not care if Brexit meant the devastation of integrated supply chains and the consequent devastating impact on jobs in manufacturing in Britain? A very large eve-of-poll survey in 2016—I believe the only poll of the reasons why people voted as they did—found that almost all leavers believed that Brexit would have no downside but would promise a future in the sunny uplands.

It is said that a new vote would be divisive, as if we are not a divided nation now, and that it might lead to violence. Since when has the threat of violence become a reason for abandoning policy? Are hooligans, like those outside Parliament a few days ago, to dictate what we may vote for? That really would be the end of democracy.

I cannot understand why so many Conservatives no longer seem to care about our standing and influence in the world. Many people abroad long admired our record for political stability, common sense and skilled diplomacy. Now that reputation is lost. We are regarded with a mixture of astonishment and pity.

The world today faces grave dangers to democracy: an aggressive Russia; a nationalist, more isolationist United States, poised to abandon its leadership of democracy in the world; China, an increasingly powerful world force; and rising populism and nationalism in Europe, encouraged by Brexit. At a time when Europe’s influence as a centre of democracy and stability has never been more important, Britain, which could play a vital role, is about to weaken Europe’s and destroy its own influence.

Nor do I understand Labour’s leaders, who claim they will listen to their membership, yet refuse the overwhelming view of Labour members and voters, who support a people’s vote and indeed remain. If Labour supported a new vote we would get one. Perhaps I am an incurable optimist, but I believe that Parliament and the Labour Party will in the end come round to accepting that, since MPs cannot agree, there must be a new people’s vote. As opinion polls now indicate, the disaster of Brexit can be avoided.

I end by reference to the speech made by my old friend and colleague, my noble friend Lords Rodgers of Quarry Bank. He and I became friends when we were students at Oxford together. We became Members of Parliament within a few weeks of each other. I am the older; I am much older than he is, by at least 10 days. I think we are also the only surviving Members in Parliament of the glorious 69 Labour MPs who voted against a three-line whip in 1972 and secured our entry into Europe. I fought a by-election on the issue and won it by saying country first, constituency second and party third. Is it too much to hope that Conservative Members of Parliament and of this place will, when it comes to the crunch, put the interests of the nation first and not the interests of the party?

Brexit: People’s Vote

Lord Taverne Excerpts

Thursday 25th October 2018 Lords Chamber

[Lord Taverne (LD)]

My Lords, it is a refrain constantly repeated by Brexiteers and Ministers that, somehow, a new referendum would be undemocratic because it shows contempt for the people’s vote to leave. I wonder whether they have ever thought about what democracy means. It is the essence of democracy that people are allowed to change their mind; dictatorships forbid it. Democracies allow changes of Government, but according to Brexiteers it now seems that we are not allowed to change a referendum verdict. The people’s will is sacrosanct once they have spoken, but then they may not change it even if they want to because the result turns out not to be what they voted for.

But, say Brexiteers, what they voted for was leave and we are leaving. They also voted to leave the customs union, say the Government, and the single market and the jurisdiction of the ECJ—so we are leaving all those. Really? Was that choice on the ballot paper?

As far as I am aware, there was only one, very widely based poll, taken on the eve of the referendum by YouGov, on what people expected from Brexit. There were general replies: “Taking back control, especially of immigration”. But, significantly, all respondents expected no downside from Brexit of any kind but sunny uplands instead. There was nothing about customs unions, the single market or the Irish border. I do not know whether there will be no deal, but I would not bet against it. If there is a deal, it means that the Irish border issue will be fudged or somehow postponed.

Whatever the outcome of the negotiations, if we leave, the country, and especially the most vulnerable, will be poorer according to the Government’s own forecasts. The result will not be what the people voted for, but the so-called democrats in the Government will do their best to stop the people having a realistic choice. A realistic choice would be between the outcome and remain. It is increasingly clear, as the figures cited by the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, show, that that is what the people want. In their opposition to the idea of the people having the final say, Brexiteers show what they really mean about respect for the will of the people.

Brexit: Preparations and Negotiations

Lord Taverne Excerpts

Monday 23rd July 2018 Lords Chamber

[Lord Taverne (LD)]

My Lords, there has been one change since we last debated Brexit: Boris Johnson has gone. What will be his legacy? On this I differ profoundly from what was said by the noble Lord, Lord Heseltine, with whom I normally agree. He thought what a wise decision Mrs May had made in putting Johnson in charge of the negotiations. I believe the verdict of history will be that Mrs May’s choice of Johnson as Foreign Secretary was the most bizarre public appointment since the Roman Emperor Caligula appointed his horse as consul.

The Government will have to do without Johnson’s counsel when they come to face the very real possibility of no deal. In several speeches over the last year and more, I have argued that, given the Government’s red lines, we were heading for no deal. This is now taken very seriously by the European Union, as well as by business. No deal may result for three reasons: because the Cabinet cannot agree what it wants; because, even if the Cabinet agrees, the Conservative Party may not; and because, even if both agree, it will not be accepted by the 27. The first signs are not very favourable: the White Paper was received with well-concealed enthusiasm in Brussels.

What is generally agreed—the noble Lord, Lord Boswell, pointed this out and his committee’s report agrees—is that no deal would be a disaster. It would be falling off the proverbial cliff. This is of course disputed by the extra-terrestrials who run the European Research Group. I believe that it would be a disaster, unless it is avoided by a series of events which are far from inconceivable. First, I believe that Parliament will reject no deal and insist on a meaningful alternative. Might this be a general election? Would a Conservative Government, responsible for a failed negotiation leading to a state of chaos, fancy their chances of victory? It is not likely. Should Parliament tell the Government to go back to the negotiating table and come back with a better deal? That is mission impossible. The only meaningful alternative will be to let the people have the final say, especially if Parliament cannot reach a clear conclusion.

At first, the idea of a second referendum was contemptuously dismissed and had little support. Now, the idea of giving the people the final say is steadily gaining ground. Of course we will be told that the people have spoken and to question their verdict is to treat them with contempt; this is the leavers’ mantra. Leavers had many different reasons for voting leave, but ending up with the catastrophe of no deal was certainly not one of them. It was to be all sunny uplands. This time, voters cannot be gulled by promises of £350 million a week for the NHS because we will be paying a divorce bill of some £40 billion, nor by scares about millions of Turks about to invade Britain. This time, they will know what Brexit actually means. In the early days after the referendum, Donald Tusk forecast that the final choice would be between a very hard Brexit, such as no deal, and remain. I have always thought he was right. In the end, that is likely to be the only real choice, as the halfway-house compromise of the Chequers paper is a dead option.

As a final point, I have always opposed a referendum. During debate on the then European Union Bill in 2011, I argued in favour of the tradition of Locke—in favour of parliamentary democracy based on the rule of law and the rights of the individual, not the pernicious Rousseau doctrine that the will of the people must always prevail. That is a doctrine invoked, ever since the days of the Committee of Public Safety, by dictators past and present. I also argued for the principle expounded by Burke: that for Parliament to work effectively, MPs must be representatives not delegates. So why do I support another people’s vote? Because a vote to leave by plebiscite cannot be reversed without another vote by plebiscite. But then we should follow the example of the Germans, who wisely adopted a post-war democratic constitution, which, in the light of their experience of Hitler, forbids the federal Government from calling referendums except on very limited local issues. Then we go back to Locke and Burke, and down with Rousseau.

European Union (Withdrawal) Bill

Lord Taverne Excerpts

Wednesday 14th March 2018 Lords Chamber

[Lord Callanan]

We are leaving the European Union on 29 March next year in accordance with the Article 50 notification and we have made it very clear countless times. The Prime Minister has made it clear that the Article 50 notification will not be revoked.

[Lord Taverne (LD)]

Is the Minister not contradicting the statement by the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union that the essence of a democracy is that it can change its mind?

[Lord Callanan]

Of course Parliament is allowed to change its mind. It does so on many occasions and no doubt will do so in future on other issues.

It is our view that the question of whether to leave and the process of approving how we leave have been decided. Parliament approved the referendum and has signalled its approval to every step the Government have taken since July 2016. Furthermore the people authorised the Government’s negotiating position as a result of the election last year. Lastly, we have made a solemn promise to seek approval, which I am confident will be granted, from Parliament of the outcome of those negotiations.

I stress that I understand many noble Lords’ deeply and honestly held conviction that the UK should not leave the EU. That has become very clear to me throughout the progress of the Bill, but this is a Bill to provide maximum legal certainty upon exit. I do not think it would be in the interests of either the EU or the UK to open the door to an ever-continuing negotiation process with no certainty that the UK will ever reach a new settled relationship with the EU. I do not believe that that is what the noble Lord intends, but that is what is being risked. The terms of the vote on the final deal are clear: to accept the terms of the agreement or to move forward without a deal. This is fully in line with the terms on which the European Parliament will be voting: a yes or no vote.

Amendments 196 and 213 are unnecessary because we have already made a strong commitment to hold this vote as soon as possible after the negotiations have concluded.

European Union (Withdrawal) Bill

Lord Taverne Excerpts

Committee: 1st sitting (Hansard): House of Lords
Wednesday 21st February 2018 Lords Chamber

[Lord True]

It passed the parliamentary rules. If a Bill goes through the other Chamber, it must be construed to have been approved by that Chamber. That is our constitutional arrangement. I beg to remind noble Lords that Manchester City is not the most popular football team in this country.

[Lord Taverne (LD)]

My Lords, if these amendments were adopted by the Government, it is possible that there would be a successful negotiation. Let us look at the possibilities of a successful negotiation, which it is generally assumed there will be.

First, the Government have to make up their mind what their aims are. Having renounced the idea of staying in the single market or the customs union, it seems that they are aiming for a new kind of customs union and for access to the single market under a special kind of bespoke single market. The idea of having a new kind of frictionless customs union without being a member of the single market is wholly unrealistic. Nobody outside Britain regards the arrangements suggested by the Government as in any way credible, and the idea of a bespoke single market arrangement has been rejected by one European leader after another. Therefore, why is it assumed that when the Government come forward with their offer, it will be a serious basis for negotiation? At that stage, the negotiations may well break down.

Next, it is assumed that there will be a transition agreement. The Government envisage a period in which there will be an agreement on the framework and we will work out the details. During this period, which they say will last for two years and will include an implementation period, we will continue with the status quo. Maintaining the status quo, with acceptance of membership of the customs union and the single market, of the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and of a continuation of our making contributions, has been described—fairly accurately, I think—by both the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, and Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg as meaning that this country will become a “vassal state”. I do not think it can be assumed that there will be automatic agreement by the EU 27—the Commissioners’ negotiators—to this kind of transition agreement. There must surely also be a question as to whether the Conservative Party itself will accept it. And if there is no transition agreement, there will be no deal.

Most importantly, the trade negotiations were allowed to continue because there was an agreement in December about the Northern Ireland border, and alignment of regulations between the UK and Ireland. It was a fudge, which had a completely different meaning to Dublin and to the British Government. To Dublin it meant that Britain would stay within the customs union, and to the British Government it was a way of getting the trade negotiations going and preventing a breakdown at that stage. It is clear that the Government’s frictionless border is not going to be a working proposition—and it seems to me that the negotiation over the Irish border will itself be a breaking point. If there is a breaking point then, of course that means no deal.

My noble friend Lord Newby was wrong when he said that on the whole people had been too optimistic. I think he was being too optimistic, because he assumed that there would be an agreement. All the signs are that we have very good reason to suppose that there will be no deal. If there is no deal the whole economic position will look entirely different—and unless some of these amendments are passed, the odds are that there will be no deal.

[Lord Robathan]

My Lords, in 1997, I—together with other Members of this House, including, I recall, the noble Lord, Lord Davies—was returned as a Conservative MP to the House of Commons. I quickly learned what it was like to be in a minority. I fear that I also find myself in a minority in this House today. I may be in a minority in this House, but it comforts me to know that outside this House I am not in a minority.

However, I think I am in a majority in this House when I say that I am not in favour of referendums. I think they are a terrible idea: look where they have led us. But whatever we think, we have had one. The noble Lord, Lord Newby, talked about misleading the British people. I shall be brief about this, he will be pleased to know, because that is where we should start, and finish. During the referendum campaign the Prime Minister at the time, and also George Osborne and Michael Gove, specifically said that we would have to leave the single market. People may not have paid attention, but that is neither here nor there. I think that we will also find that they said we would have to leave the customs union. But people were not very interested.

As regards the customs union, may I draw attention to the fact that the Conservative Party general election manifesto said that we would leave the single market and the customs union?

Brexit Negotiations

Lord Taverne Excerpts

Tuesday 5th December 2017 Lords Chamber

[Lord Elystan-Morgan (CB)]

My Lords—

[Lord Taverne (LD)]

My Lords—

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

It is in fact the turn of the Liberal Democrats; then we will see what time permits.

[Lord Taverne]

My Lords, will the Minister explain how any member of the Government could possibly reconcile the idea that part of the United Kingdom would be subject to regulations in effect of the European customs union and the rest would not? Is the position of the DUP on this occasion not impeccably logical?

[Lord Callanan]

I think for the first time I find myself in agreement with the Liberal Democrats.

UK and EU Relations

Lord Taverne Excerpts

Tuesday 12th September 2017 Lords Chamber

[Lord Taverne (LD)]

My Lords, I will concentrate on the effect of the Government’s decision to stay out of the customs union, their plans for controlling immigration even though that is not yet an official paper, and the prospects of a new referendum.

First, I find so depressing the Government’s complacency and lack of realism. This is one factor why our negotiators seem much better at losing friends than making new allies. One example is the way the Government keep boasting about how strong our economy is. The fact is that it is very fragile. Our 16 to 18 year-olds rank in the bottom four of the OECD’s 35 members for numeracy and literacy. As a result, we lack the skills that industry needs. Our growth is now the slowest in the G7. Nine out of northern Europe’s 10 poorest regions are in Britain. Our productivity is about 20% less than the average of the G7 and has not improved for a decade. Brexit will make matters worse.

There was an important and impressive recent report about leaving the customs union by the All-Party Parliamentary Group on EU Relations. Unfortunately, I have time only to quote part of its summary. It says that leaving will gravely damage our industry, and the damage will affect business across many important sectors of the economy, such as food and the chemical industry, and will be particularly damaging to industries with just-in-time supply chains such as the motorcar industry and aerospace. Leaving the customs union will see UK companies having to comply with high levels of new bureaucracy. Requirements on rules of origin alone could add costs of up to £21.5 billion for UK exporters. IT systems will need to be improved and we will more than double the number of traders making customs declarations.

All the trade deals that the UK currently enjoys with third-party countries as part of the EU will have to be renegotiated, starting from scratch. Deals with new markets will take many years to negotiate. It seems clear from the report that the likely loss of trade with the EU and these third countries cannot be offset by new trade deals around the world. The report points out that the Government’s important promise of,

“the freest and most frictionless possible trade in goods between the UK and the EU”,

is ludicrously optimistic at best and dangerously misleading at worst. As the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, added, no details are given of how that is to be achieved, except that it will need new and untried imaginative IT technology—or “magic” as the noble Lord, Lord Adonis, called it. In fact, the Government’s record in introducing grand IT schemes is not particularly encouraging. One of the most disturbing of the report’s conclusions is that the only certain way to avoid a hard border between the economies of Ulster and the Republic, which almost everyone agrees would have a devastating effect on both, is to remain in the customs union.

On the leaked plans for immigration control, although those are not yet official policy they obviously represent what Mrs May wants, given her record in the Home Office. They went down badly with the CBI and the Institute of Directors because of the loss of skills and their effect on productivity. However, for the public the most serious impact of strong curbs on immigration of the kind outlined in that paper will be on the NHS, which is already heading for a crash. A third of new nurses each year come from the EU and yet applications from EU countries are down by 94%. EU doctors also play a vital role; many of them are leaving as they no longer feel welcome. Other public services will also suffer grievously. One example is the Government’s plan to build more than a million houses in the next few years. This requires a 35% increase in the construction workforce. Instead, that is forecast to decline by 6% as Poles and Lithuanians want to leave.

The fact is that negotiations are going badly. Indeed, it seems that the Government and their allies are already preparing for the consequences of a hard Brexit or no deal by blaming Brussels. However, this time that strategy may not work because the public have begun to see the Government as incompetent and no longer believe what they say. Living standards are falling. As wages barely increase if at all, inflation heads for 3% and may well be rising. The pound is likely to fall further. This can hardly be blamed on Brussels. It will become only too obvious that Brexit is making Britain poorer.

What, then, are the prospects of a new referendum? I admit that at the moment there seems to be no majority in favour. However, polls show that public opinion is beginning to move quite sharply towards the idea of what would not be a rerun of the last referendum but a new one, now we know what Brexit means. It is not £350 million a week for the NHS but instead a worsening shortage of nurses and doctors, and a big divorce bill. People did not vote to lower their own living standards and did not expect that to follow. It is now plain that it will. A referendum would give them a chance to change their view. I may be completely wrong, but I would be surprised if there were not increasing support for a new referendum. It is interesting that more and more people now surface who accept that “no Brexit” cannot be ruled out. It is no longer an impossible dream.