King’s Speech

Lord St John of Bletso Excerpts

Thursday 25th July 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord St John of Bletso (CB)]

My Lords, I join others in welcoming the noble Baroness, Lady Anderson of Stoke-on-Trent, as well as the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, to their new ministerial roles.

This is an extraordinary year. Some 64 countries, representing almost half the population of the world, are going to the polls. This weekend, we will have the presidential elections in Venezuela. I was particularly pleased by the result of the recent election in South Africa, which led to a more pro-western coalition Government, at a time when its geopolitical importance has become paramount.

The gracious Speech drew reference to our Government’s commitment to reconnect with allies and forge new partnerships to deliver security and prosperity both at home and abroad. In this regard, I wish to focus my remarks on three key areas, the first of which is the Commonwealth. The noble Lord, Lord Howell of Guildford, mentioned it, and I know the noble Lord, Lord Swire, will talk far more eloquently than me about its role. The Commonwealth plays a pivotally important role in promoting our diplomatic reach through peacekeeping, development programmes, trade opportunities, security capabilities and collaborative efforts on global issues. Can the Minister assure us that our Government will continue to give their full backing to support the objectives of the Commonwealth?

In the same vein, I welcome the work of our trade envoys. The noble Lord, Lord Risby, who has just spoken but is not here, has been a very competent and able trade envoy for Algeria and Lebanon. The trade envoys have played a vital role in promoting the United Kingdom’s foreign affairs and trade interests. It is a shame that the noble Lord, Lord Popat, was unable to have his debate before the election on the important role and achievements of these trade envoys. In wrapping up, can the Minister assure the House that our Government will continue with this well worth while initiative?

As noble Lords will be aware, I have a long-standing interest in the socioeconomic and political stability of Africa. I am delighted that the noble Lord, Lord Collins of Highbury, with his vast experience and knowledge of the continent, has been appointed the Minister for Africa. However, I am alarmed by the influence of the Wagner Group, the Russian paramilitary organisation, which has posed a multifaceted threat in many countries in Africa, impacting local stability, human rights, economic development and environmental sustainability. Addressing these dangers requires a co-ordinated international effort and robust policy measures. There is clearly a grand strategy not just by Russia but by China to deny key resources from Africa to the West. To what extent are our Government aware and strategically planning to counter this threat?

Finally, I am particularly concerned by the increased threat posed by the Iranian revolutionary guard, which appears to be embarking on nuclear breakout. It is noticeable that the flows of uranium are increasingly being diverted from the West to the axis of autocracy. Niger is a notable example of this phenomenon, where there is evidence that yellowcake is being channelled to our adversaries. I mention this as I have a long-standing interest in the sourcing and supply of nuclear energy. As disclosed in the register of interests, I am chairman of one of the largest global uranium holding companies.

I am concerned that the West’s assumption that the current second cold war will remain relatively cold is being challenged by the reality of the two major regional conflicts, which many noble Lords have spoken about today, and the big risk that these could escalate. I have always advocated the importance of soft diplomacy and deterrence in addressing the threats to global peace, and I welcome the appointment of the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, to lead the UK defence review. It is vital, however, that we change the tempo and the magnitude of our strategy to become much more proactive.

Artificial Intelligence in Weapon Systems Committee Report

Lord St John of Bletso Excerpts

Friday 19th April 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord St John of Bletso (CB)]

My Lords, I join in congratulating my noble friend Lord Lisvane and his committee on this detailed report. Coming last to the crease, I will try to raise a few issues that have not been raised by others.

We are certainly living in very uncertain and precarious times, with the emergence of this new form of fast-moving AI battlefield management systems. It is perhaps opportune that we are having this debate today, within just a week of the aggressive Iranian attack on Israel, diffused by the effective use of AWS. The power of AI systems applied to battlefield management has been powerfully demonstrated by Ukraine, in its continuing war with Russia, harnessing the limited resources provided by the West. We are, clearly, in a new form of arms race, with nations seeking superiority in military AI technologies.

I find it alarming that, in his recent Budget, the Chancellor made no provision for increased military expenditure. I refer to the very pertinent point made by my noble and gallant friend Lord Houghton of Richmond, who referred to defence as being impoverished. I also could not find any statistics on the percentage of the defence budget that will be allocated to the development of AI weaponry.

Page 70 of the report, and the Financial Times a few days ago, draws reference to the fact that the European Parliament has taken a far tougher approach to the regulation of AI weaponry systems than the UK. Many commentators believe that overregulation is counterproductive to innovation in the sector. There is, of course, the risk of singularity. Singularity refers to the possibility of computer intelligence surpassing that of humans, but this is unlikely in the short term. We need to harness and promote innovation.

Much has been written in this report on the different spectrums of autonomy. The prospect of fully autonomous weapons capable of making lethal decisions without human intervention raises questions of accountability, morality and compliance with international law.

AI warfare is so much more complex than traditional war, and I am no expert in the military field. AI has the capability to shape new realities, generate deepfakes or even show false videos of masked surrender to lower battlefield morale. This was referred to on page 38 of the report as “intelligentised”—I can hardly pronounce the word—warfare. Clearly, the nature of warfare is continually being redefined.

As several noble Lords have mentioned, AI algorithms have the ability to enhance the accuracy and reliability of missile systems and other precision-guided munitions, facilitating strike capability with reduced collateral damage. Time precludes me delving into the subject of cybersecurity risks and the malfunction of lethal weapon systems, which was referred to by the noble Lord, Lord Hamilton.

The future landscape of AI in weapon systems will depend significantly on international co-operation, regulatory frameworks and ongoing dialogues on ethical standards and accountability mechanisms. Balancing technological advancements with responsible use will be paramount in ensuring global security and stability.

There is no doubt that AI weapon systems are having and will continue to have profound implications for future warfare by enhancing capability but also challenges. I welcome the report, but I hope that the Minister in winding up can give us assurances that the Government will give a lot more focus to funding this important sector.

King’s Speech

Lord St John of Bletso Excerpts

Wednesday 15th November 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord St John of Bletso (CB)]

My Lords, I join in congratulating the noble Lord, Lord Roberts, and my noble friend Lord Young on their outstanding maiden speeches, each achieved in less than five minutes. I also welcome the noble Earl, Lord Minto, to his new role.

I wish to focus my brief comments on some of the major challenges facing southern Africa. I am pleased that my noble friend Lord Young drew reference to the importance of the Commonwealth. It is noteworthy that His Majesty’s first Commonwealth state visit was to Kenya, last month. Many countries in southern Africa face challenges relating to not just political stability but governance and the consolidation of democratic institutions. Issues such as weak governance, corruption —in many cases, rampant corruption—and contested elections pose a major threat for internal stability. There is also the growing risk of unrest.

In 2021, we celebrated the election of President Hichilema; he is known otherwise as HH. It was a great day for Zambia: it heralded a move towards more responsive and responsible government. In August this year, we had the election in Zimbabwe, where President Mnangagwa and the ZANU-PF were re-elected in a highly contentious election marred by accusations of vote rigging and disregard for human rights. This morning, I was fortunate—along with a couple of colleagues—to have an extra meeting with the new British ambassador to Zimbabwe. The election has resulted in heightened political tensions in the country, and the uncertainty and unrest have contributed to a sense of instability, which is impacting investor confidence and economic growth prospects. The role of the military post the election has also been a source of concern for many observers. What measures can His Majesty’s Government take with our international partners to call for an all-party conference on Zimbabwe to try to reach an inclusive compromise road map for the economic and political sustainability of the country?

Next year, there will be a general election in South Africa, a country where I spent 28 very happy years. We hope that the election will reinvigorate its democracy, but I fear that it will compound the trials it already faces. Many believe that President Ramaphosa has literally fallen asleep behind the wheel. There are, unfortunately, growing concerns around rampant corruption: none of the findings of the Zondo Commission have been followed up with any prosecutions. The geopolitical implications of South Africa’s joint naval exercises with China and Russia earlier this year, coupled with the shipment of arms from Simon’s Town to Russia, require our earnest attention. Such activities bring into question the strategic direction South Africa is taking and the potential shift in the balance of power in the region. The Eskom energy crisis, with extensive power outages, is symptomatic of the larger infrastructure problem. Load shedding is not just an inconvenience but a significant barrier to economic growth and development. The scarcity of clean water and the crisis in the healthcare sector have, sadly, culminated in a brain drain, leaving behind a vacuum of expertise and leadership.

On a brighter note—I must mention this—the Springbok triumph in the Rugby World Cup has been a force for unity in the country and stands in stark contrast to the current state of service delivery. If only the South African Government could emulate the unity and execution skills of the Springbok captain, Siya Kolisi, the country would have boundless potential. The recent BRICS summit in Johannesburg demonstrates South Africa’s continuing relevance on the world stage.

I conclude by saying that, as we deliberate on our foreign policy and the strategic direction of our diplomatic efforts, let us be guided by the principles of constructive engagement. After listening to the moving speech of the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, I add that we need to embrace inclusion. We need to work in partnership with South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia and the wider African continent to support the institutions of democracy, uphold human rights and foster sustainable development.

Ukraine

Lord St John of Bletso Excerpts

Friday 25th February 2022 Lords Chamber

[Lord St John of Bletso (CB)]

My Lords, yesterday we woke to a new era of war in Europe, made all the more shocking by Putin’s implied threat to use nuclear weapons if his forces are interfered with—a tactic that is consistent with the Russian army’s tactical doctrine of first use of nuclear weapons.

We must be very clear that this new and unprovoked war in Europe has been initiated and caused by Putin’s expansionist ambitions, which will in time almost inevitably see him indicted as a war criminal. Britain has followed its great tradition of standing up to dictators in Europe, and quite rightly is leading the western world in its support of Ukraine with our anti-tank weapons, which have so far been very effective in destroying Putin’s tanks. However, I fear that Britain may become a target for Putin’s threat of retaliation for those who interfere in the Ukraine crisis.

Although Putin is the aggressor, I fear that our Government have failed to learn the lesson of history meted out by past dictators who have started world wars that have led to rivers of blood. The lesson is simple: the way to deter conflict is to increase our military capabilities. That point has been made by several noble Lords. Over the past 10 years of Putin’s increasing aggression and hostility, we have seen similar expansionism from Premier Xi Jinping. I am seriously concerned about the possibility of China launching an attack on Taiwan. I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, that our weak response to the Salisbury poisonings on British soil by the Russians exposed our vulnerabilities.

Putin’s inner psychology and objectives have been facilitated by a new positive commodities cycle feeding Russia’s war coffers. As several noble Lords have mentioned, we are not looking at a weak Russian economy that will swiftly crumble under sanctions, but a strong one, with $65 billion of reserves and a debt of 18% of GDP. That said, I fully support all the sanctions that have been proposed and I hope they will have the effect we all hope for.

I am concerned that the strategic alliance now formed between Russia and China matches Russia’s commodity production to a willing and voracious buyer whose supply lines will now be overland and no longer vulnerable to a naval blockade. This is a nightmare alliance. I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Howell of Guildford, that we and Europe need to reduce our dependence on Russia’s oil and gas and create a renewed energy security policy.

We need to rethink our focus on linear, reactive, non-strategic, peacekeeping thinking and replace it with lateral strategic thinking that will get us ahead of the expansionist plans of Russia and China. I entirely agree with the wise words of the noble Lord, Lord Tugendhat, that the quarrel is with President Putin and not with the Russian people.

Queen’s Speech

Lord St John of Bletso Excerpts

Wednesday 19th May 2021 Lords Chamber

[Lord St John of Bletso (CB)]

My Lords, I join in the congratulations to the noble Lord, Lord Udny- Lister on his outstanding maiden speech. The gracious Speech drew reference to measures to counter hostile activity by foreign states and measures to reduce poverty and alleviate human suffering. In this regard, I wish to refer to the importance of the Commonwealth. I am pleased that the noble Lord, Lord Risby, also mentioned it.

It is regrettable that the CHOGM meeting in Rwanda has had to be postponed as a result of the continuing impact of the Covid pandemic. With Africa making up the largest grouping in the Commonwealth and with the immediate challenges of health management, climate change, conflict resolution and job creation, the integrity of the group is more important now than ever. I entirely concur with the moving speech of the most reverend Primate the Archbishop of Canterbury that reconciliation is the best protector of peace. All too often in Africa our approach to the ongoing crises that beset the continent is reactive rather than proactive.

Earlier this week, the noble Baroness, Lady Northover, raised the issue of our Government’s support for landmine clearance. Landmines have been the scourge of many war-torn countries. I was pleased that the noble Lord, Lord Chidgey, also mentioned it in his speech. It is not just the removal and disposal of the explosive remnants of war; prevention, with increased training and counter-IED tactics, is just as important.

I agree with the noble Baroness, Lady Anelay, that women’s issues and challenges should be at the top of the agenda for the postponed CHOGM. I also share her concerns about cutting the aid budget.

Several noble Lords mentioned the increased threat to cybersecurity. The RUSI paper issued last month highlighted the threat of fraud and cybersecurity breaches to national security. As we converge from the old economy to the new, and with almost everyone owning a mobile phone, now is the time to consider measures to introduce a digital ID. This would entail embracing harmonised standards and authentication rules across all Commonwealth member states.

The National Security and Investment Act specifies cryptographic authentication and AI as key technologies to solve many of the global security challenges. The Minister, in opening this debate, spoke about the advances in technology. Given the United Kingdom’s leadership on artificial intelligence and disruptive technologies, can the Minister, in winding up, elaborate on what initiatives have been taken promoting knowledge transfer to the Commonwealth family of nations?

At a time when leadership and good management are key to the maintenance of peace and stability, as well as managing the global Covid pandemic, institutions such as the Commonwealth have a pivotal role to play.

In conclusion, I believe that the United Kingdom can take the lead within the Commonwealth to promote digital integrity and trust, and to modernise the group in tandem with the digital revolution.

Zimbabwe

Lord St John of Bletso Excerpts

Thursday 23rd November 2017 Lords Chamber

[Earl Howe]

My Lords, the Foreign Secretary and the Minister for Africa are engaging with the region and other international partners, especially South Africa and the African Union, the EU and the UN. In fact, my honourable friend the Minister for Africa is in Harare at this moment with the aim of engaging with leading figures from all parts of the political spectrum in Zimbabwe.

[Lord St John of Bletso (CB)]

My Lords, with the likelihood that President-elect Mnangagwa will form a Government of national unity in Zimbabwe, one of his key focuses will be on resurrecting the agricultural sector and job creation. What support can our Government give, whether bilaterally or through multilateral agencies, to revive the agricultural sector, possibly providing compensation to former landowners in Zimbabwe?

[Earl Howe]

My Lords, DfID is already active on a number of fronts in Zimbabwe, as the noble Lord will be aware. If there are free and fair elections, Britain and indeed the international community would be prepared to support the country in whatever way is thought appropriate. We are putting together a package of support that will be tied to political and economic reform and implemented alongside international partners.