Ukraine

Lord St John of Bletso Excerpts

Friday 25th February 2022 Lords Chamber

[Lord St John of Bletso (CB)]

My Lords, yesterday we woke to a new era of war in Europe, made all the more shocking by Putin’s implied threat to use nuclear weapons if his forces are interfered with—a tactic that is consistent with the Russian army’s tactical doctrine of first use of nuclear weapons.

We must be very clear that this new and unprovoked war in Europe has been initiated and caused by Putin’s expansionist ambitions, which will in time almost inevitably see him indicted as a war criminal. Britain has followed its great tradition of standing up to dictators in Europe, and quite rightly is leading the western world in its support of Ukraine with our anti-tank weapons, which have so far been very effective in destroying Putin’s tanks. However, I fear that Britain may become a target for Putin’s threat of retaliation for those who interfere in the Ukraine crisis.

Although Putin is the aggressor, I fear that our Government have failed to learn the lesson of history meted out by past dictators who have started world wars that have led to rivers of blood. The lesson is simple: the way to deter conflict is to increase our military capabilities. That point has been made by several noble Lords. Over the past 10 years of Putin’s increasing aggression and hostility, we have seen similar expansionism from Premier Xi Jinping. I am seriously concerned about the possibility of China launching an attack on Taiwan. I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, that our weak response to the Salisbury poisonings on British soil by the Russians exposed our vulnerabilities.

Putin’s inner psychology and objectives have been facilitated by a new positive commodities cycle feeding Russia’s war coffers. As several noble Lords have mentioned, we are not looking at a weak Russian economy that will swiftly crumble under sanctions, but a strong one, with $65 billion of reserves and a debt of 18% of GDP. That said, I fully support all the sanctions that have been proposed and I hope they will have the effect we all hope for.

I am concerned that the strategic alliance now formed between Russia and China matches Russia’s commodity production to a willing and voracious buyer whose supply lines will now be overland and no longer vulnerable to a naval blockade. This is a nightmare alliance. I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Howell of Guildford, that we and Europe need to reduce our dependence on Russia’s oil and gas and create a renewed energy security policy.

We need to rethink our focus on linear, reactive, non-strategic, peacekeeping thinking and replace it with lateral strategic thinking that will get us ahead of the expansionist plans of Russia and China. I entirely agree with the wise words of the noble Lord, Lord Tugendhat, that the quarrel is with President Putin and not with the Russian people.