Covid-19 Update

Lord Scriven Excerpts

Tuesday 6th July 2021 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bethell (Con)]

My Lords, I pay tribute to the NHS, but the rise in infections among mainly very young people will not necessarily lead immediately to a large increase in the demands on the NHS. An extraordinary aspect of this disease is that it targets the elderly and those with comorbidities and leaves the young largely alone. The proportion of people who have the disease in the months to come will mainly be the unvaccinated. Those are mainly the young and our modelling, which is supported by the NHS, suggests that our resources in healthcare can support that kind of situation.

[Lord Scriven (LD)]

My Lords, the Health Secretary this morning said that there could be 100,000 cases per day by mid-summer as a result of lifting the restrictions in the Statement. Professor Neil Ferguson’s analysis today, based on the delta variant and the age group affected, shows that would equate to about 100 deaths per day. That will mean an extra 15,000 deaths by the end of the year. Is the Minister aware of and comfortable with that projection of extra deaths, when he says from the Dispatch Box that the policy he now advocates leads to a low level of deaths?

[Lord Bethell (Con)]

I am not comfortable with any deaths. The suggestion that we are going into any of this with a sanguine, devil-may-care attitude is quite wrong. We approach the matter with extreme caution. But many people are dying because they have missed their cancer appointments. There will be people who die of flu this winter; there will be many people who die of all manner of diseases. We cannot focus only on Covid—we cannot make it the sole priority of our healthcare system and our entire economy. At some point we need to move on.

We will remain extremely cautious; we have all sorts of back-up resources in place that we can pivot to should there be an escalation of Covid hospitalisations and deaths. I do not need to list from the Dispatch Box any of the things we are all worried about. This is the right decision right now; it is proportionate, and it gives us the space to address the many other health issues we have as a nation.