Middle East

Lord Ramsbotham Excerpts

Friday 16th March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Ramsbotham]

My Lords, I, too, congratulate the Minister on the masterly introductory tour d’horizon to what has been an excellent and wide-ranging debate. Lord Acton once said that hindsight is the privilege of the historian. I begin my single-issue contribution with two pieces of hindsight.

Thirty-eight years ago, I was realising the dream of every regular commanding officer, being in command of my regiment and was faced with two operational requirements. One was to prepare it for an operational tour in Belfast later that year. The other was to prepare our shooting team for the Central Treaty Organisation shooting competition in which we were representing the United Kingdom against the other member nations: the United States, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey. I knew Ali Nashat, the captain of the Iranian team, because he had been at the staff college with me. He had also been part of the Iranian contingent that took part with us in Oman’s war against the Yemeni insurgents in the Dhofar. I was to speak to Ali once more when I was sent to Tehran in November 1978 on one of the least successful military missions in history. He was commanding the Shah’s guard, and I had been sent to advise the Iranian military authority on minimum force methods a few weeks before the Shah was overthrown. I was able to speak to him on the telephone, but was not allowed to meet him. Sadly, he was among the first people murdered in the revolution. As we know, CENTO, too, did not survive that event, but I often wonder what would have happened had it still been the NATO of the Middle East.

Secondly, six months before the second Iraq war, to which I have always been strongly opposed, a number of us wrote to the Prime Minister. I was in Oman when a senior Omani army officer reminded me that it was our oldest ally in that part of the world, and had built a 74-gun ship for Nelson’s navy. He said that he hoped that we would not ask for Oman’s help in our deployment against Iraq. True, Saddam and his family had to be removed but that was a matter for the Iraqis, not for us. In our letter to the Prime Minister, we referred to two definitions of affordability: can you afford something; or can you afford to give up what you would have to give up in order to afford it? We did not think that the United Kingdom could afford to put at risk, in the present or the future, the relationships that it had painstakingly built up over many years in the Middle East.

I emphasise this last point because of its relevance to one of the key ingredients in the all-important peace process—namely, the proposed weapons-of-mass-destruction-free zone, about which my noble friend Lord Hannay has already spoken. I agree with everything that he said, particularly about the need for a more flexible approach to Iran. Indeed, we would do well to respond swiftly and positively to Ayatollah Khamenei’s positive response to President Obama’s call for diplomacy, not war, to direct efforts in that part of the world.

Reverting to the weapons-of-mass-destruction-free zone, I briefly remind the House of its history. The objective was first put forward by Egypt in 1990, building on a 1974 UN General Assembly resolution from Egypt and Iran that called for a nuclear-free zone in the area. In 1995, after the NPT states had resolved on its adoption, Egypt encouraged all non-signatory Arab states to become parties. Frustrated by the lack of progress, it then worked with the League of Arab States and civil society on a proposed action plan, which was negotiated at the 2010 NPT review conference. It was agreed there that a facilitator would be appointed and a conference held in 2012 under the auspices of the UN Secretary-General and the three NPT depository states, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom. The aim would be to involve all states in the Middle East in the establishment of a Middle East zone free of nuclear weapons and all other weapons of mass destruction. Ambassador Jaakko Laajava was appointed facilitator in October last year and his country, Finland, will host the conference. However, time is running out, and the latest information I have about the conference is that, owing to the American presidential election, January 2013 has been awarded honorary 2012 status so that the timeframe can be extended.

However, as with so many other problems in the area, the position and view of Iran and Israel are critical to further progress. As we know, Israel remains the only nuclear weapons state in the region—a situation that questions the applicability of the traditional doctrine of deterrence. The possession of nuclear weapons is made more acceptable because of their pre-eminent role in the prevention of aggression by others. Throughout the Cold War, the key word was “uncertainty” because neither side was certain whether the other would resort to the use of nuclear weapons. Therefore, in logic, should Iran not be allowed to develop such weapons so that the doctrine of deterrence can apply to its relations with Israel? However, as we all know, such possession is vehemently rejected by many, not least other actual and potential nuclear players in that part of the world, such as Pakistan—the former member of CENTO—Saudi Arabia and, of course, Israel.

What could or should the United Kingdom be doing about this? Oh for a CENTO and that we could be certain of our Middle East relationships. However, I do not believe that all is doom and gloom. Last year, the United States tried to negotiate a new protocol for the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions, which the United Kingdom had played a major role in securing. The protocol was designed to allow certain munitions to be used. However, as a result of the strong line that the Government took at a diplomatic meeting last November, this was successfully resisted, which suggests that our voice in such areas still carries weight. Therefore, my question to the Minister is whether, based on the standing that we enjoy in the region and our status as one of the three NPT depository states, the Government are prepared to take a similarly strong line over the 2012 conference on a weapons-of-mass-destruction-free zone, so that at least and at last some progress can be made to improve the long-term security prospects in the Middle East.