Taxation: Income Tax

Lord Peston Excerpts

Monday 24th June 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, I think that the noble Lord overestimates my drafting skills.

[Lord Peston]

My Lords, according to this bit of paper the original Question asked “what assessment” the Government have made. As far as I can see, they have made no assessment. Does the noble Lord remember, from whenever he learnt some economics, that economic theory does not tell us anything at all about the optimum rate of tax? This is because people with a greater preference for leisure will work less and pay less tax, if you cut the tax. That is why economics and economists are such a pain in the neck.

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, I could not possibly comment on that last point. I refer the noble Lord, and indeed all other noble Lords, to the extremely comprehensive assessment made by HMRC last year, entitled The Exchequer effect of the 50 per cent additional rate of income tax.

Economy: Fiscal Framework

Lord Peston Excerpts

Tuesday 4th June 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, as the noble Lord said, we have a floating exchange rate. The Government do not set a target for the exchange rate; it responds to economic circumstances, including the decisions taken by the independent Bank of England.

[Lord Peston]

My Lords, given the economic mess that the Government’s policies have got the whole country into…

[Noble Lords]

Oh!

[Lord Peston]

Oh yes. I hope I do not have to remind the coalition how long it has been in power and it is about time it accepted some degree of responsibility. Some flexibility in the fiscal framework is called for, and the obvious flexibility is to extend the planning horizon—I advise the Government on this with no charge—to the whole length of the business cycle so that we could have some expansionary fiscal policies now, followed, in due course, by further fiscal adjustment. That is the way we ought to be going, and the sooner we have a Government that does it, the better.

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, the Government have pushed back the period during which we are going to eliminate the deficit. The rate at which we are doing it, at about 1% of GDP per annum, is exactly in line with IMF guidance to countries that find themselves in the position that we do.

Banking: Quantitative Easing

Lord Peston Excerpts

Wednesday 27th March 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

I can absolutely give that assurance.

[Lord Peston]

May I break the habit of a lifetime by saying how much I agree with the opening remarks of the noble Lord, Lord Lawson? In all the years we have known each other, I think that is a one-off. As far as I recall, the Minister did not take part in the deliberations on the 1998 Act. He is indicating that he did. Then he must remember that the noble Lord, Lord Barnett, and I spent a large part of our time trying to move the Monetary Policy Committee’s remit in exactly the direction in which the Government are moving it; and claim to be moving it, let me add—the relevant words are there in the speech of the Chancellor and that of the noble Lord, Lord Deighton. They have updated it. My knowledge of the English language is not that large, but I think that “update” means change. How have they produced this most remarkable sleight of hand? The noble Lord, Lord Barnett, and I were told regularly that we could not change the remit because amendments were not acceptable to the Government. How has the Chancellor produced an extraordinary sleight of hand and changed the remit without bringing it before Parliament?

[Lord Newby]

I do not think that there is any sleight of hand. Since 1998, the Bank of England has introduced a number of innovative measures within the remit and the terms of the Bank of England Act. Quantitative easing, which, in 1998, many of us could hardly spell, far less understand, has happened on a big scale and finance for lending has been introduced. These innovative things have been introduced under the terms of the Bank of England Act. The remit change reflected in this year’s statement by the Chancellor accepts that there have been a lot of changes since 1998 and suggests that the Bank should look at introducing further innovative operations.

Bank of England: Monetary Policy

Lord Peston Excerpts

Tuesday 19th March 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, as I said in my original Answer, operational responsibility for monetary policy is a matter for the independent Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, not for the Treasury.

[Lord Peston]

My Lords, bearing in mind that Section 19 of the Bank of England Act 1998 gives reserve powers to the Treasury to give directions to the Bank of England, am I right that those powers have never been used? I am pretty sure that I am right. Does it not follow that the failure—despite the fact that the Act says that this is the MPC’s objective—to hit the inflation target for three years without the slightest sign that it will be hit for the next two years, coupled with monetary easing, is down to the MPC?

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, inflation has been higher than the 2% target for a number of years. The MPC has taken the view that the target would be met in the medium term and that, because the principal reasons for inflation did not include excessive domestic demand and are therefore less capable of being moderated by increases in our own interest rates, it was wiser to “see through” the temporary increase in inflation above 2% but to work, as the MPC has, on the basis that, in the medium term, inflation would indeed come down to 2%.

Regional Development

Lord Peston Excerpts

Tuesday 12th March 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, it is a very great disparity—and a disparity, as the noble Lord knows, of very long standing. The good news in terms of Wales is that in 2010 and 2011 GVA grew faster per head than in either England or Scotland, so there is a bit of progress. However, changing and reversing those regional disparities is going to be a long job and it will take a large number of measures to achieve it.

[Lord Peston]

My Lords, my noble friend asked the Minister a very good economics examination question, to which I am glad to see the Minister tried gallantly to find an answer. It is a very difficult question. Is he aware that most economists would argue in favour of the so-called convergence theory that free markets would lead to the right outcome and there would be convergence of the different regions? The only trouble with that marvellous theory, like so much economic theory, is that it is totally refuted by the facts. What the facts show—and this is a problem for any Government—is that once a region is ahead, it stays ahead. It is rather like the fact that very few teams win the Premier League, even though everybody could play marvellous football just by copying the best teams. Does that not mean that while the Government should intervene, particularly with infrastructure investment biased in favour of the relevant regions, they must proceed with the utmost caution in interfering with the way the markets are working?

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, as the noble Lord will be aware, we have had active regional policies to a greater or lesser extent in the United Kingdom since the 1960s. When I studied this at university, the figures were very much in my mind. The reason it is such a difficult issue to deal with is that, for example, in the north-east the proportion of people employed in the basic industries—mining, steel, shipbuilding and engineering—fell from something like 33% to well under 10% in a couple of decades. The challenge for government in trying to reduce regional disparities is how to put in place the kinds of long-term policies, such as infrastructure apprenticeships, that can begin to redress these wider economic forces. However, I do not think that government can reverse them, certainly not in the short term.

Inequality: Income and Wealth

Lord Peston Excerpts

Monday 11th March 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Deighton]

I thank my noble friend for that question. I am not aware of the initial revenue yields. I asked the department earlier, and it said that it did not break it down that way. My noble friend clearly alludes to the importance in tax management of understanding the ultimate yield on a tax, rather than simply assuming that when tax rates are changed people will continue to behave the same.

[Lord Peston]

My Lords, is the Minister aware that, apart from me, the leading researchers in this subject all agree that there is far more inequality in our society than is required for the efficient working of the economy? Therefore, it follows that the inequality is totally unjustifiable.

[Lord Deighton]

There is clearly a relatively academic debate about the impact of equality and inequality on efficiency. All I can tell noble Lords is that this Government and their policies are focused on ensuring that, at the top end, those in receipt of large incomes and with significant wealth have been by far the major contributors to the consolidation of our deficit.

Economy: Rating Agencies

Lord Peston Excerpts

Wednesday 27th February 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Deighton]

As always, I thank my noble friend for his important observations. There are, again, several issues in there. First, he is absolutely right—Moody’s refers to this—that two things have caused this downgrade. The first is the sluggish growth of the global economy, which has slowed down the British economy; and the second is the very high levels of public and domestic debt, and the difficulty in driving those down.

On the second point, with respect to the credibility of the rating agencies, there are some very important issues surrounding that, particularly when one discusses complex securities such as the ones that we had in the mortgage-backed market. Frankly, with respect to the sovereign market, all the information used to determine credit assessments is perfectly visible to everyone, which is why the markets’ reaction to the downgrade on Friday was so measured.

[Lord Peston]

My Lords, bearing in mind that these agencies give the same grade to an enormous and widely different range of borrowers, leading economists pointed out a long time ago that they cannot be, and should not be, taken seriously. Also, is the Minister aware that all the best economic research shows that one major force exacerbating the economic troubles of the past few years has been the rating agencies? Would he remind the House who is supposed to be regulating these agencies and why they have not intervened? If they have not intervened, is it not about time that someone did something about them? These agencies are a real danger to the survival of the world economy, and I am amazed that the Chancellor himself takes them seriously.

[Lord Deighton]

The noble Lord makes some very important observations. First, as I am sure he knows, one of the rating agencies is being sued by the US Government, reflecting the very concerns that he brings out. With respect to relatively simple credit considerations, and in terms of the UK economy the information is all out there, the Chancellor’s economic policy and the performance of the UK economy is evaluated every second of every day by the financial markets. The verdict of those markets is reflected in our historically low gilt yields. This morning we were trading in the 10-year gilt below 2%, which is the most profound commentary on the success of the UK Government’s current economic policy.

Monetary Policy Committee: Inflation

Lord Peston Excerpts

Wednesday 13th February 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Peston]

Dare I say to the Minister that he is mistaken? The word flexibility does not appear anywhere in the Bank of England Act. He is entirely right that the Monetary Policy Committee behaves as if it does have a flexible inflation target—the trouble is that it does not, and therefore it is acting illegally. For a great many years my noble friend Lord Barnett and I have been trying to get the Bank of England Act modified so that what the MPC is doing—which, as the Minister says, is quite right—turns out also to be legal.

[Lord Deighton]

I do not really want to get into a semantic argument about the definition of flexibility, and I do not know whether it appears in the original Act. However, to my simple understanding, the remit and the MPC’s behaviour clearly demonstrate significant flexibility, which is what you would expect in a policy tool to cope with our difficult and challenging economic circumstances.

Bank of England

Lord Peston Excerpts

Tuesday 22nd January 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howarth of Newport]

My Lords—

[Lord Peston]

My Lords, would the Minister care to reflect on the irony of what he and government spokesmen are generally saying? The Europhobes on the government Benches are terribly upset with the idea that Brussels wants to get, and is getting, too involved in the determination of our economic policy, but is not our economic policy being driven by a quite different group—namely the credit rating agencies, which have no democratic legitimacy whatever and whose operations would not bear the slightest scrutiny if ever we were able to examine them properly? Is it not about time that the Government put the needs of our economy first and not the needs of the credit rating agencies?

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, the Government do not put the needs of the credit rating agencies first. The Government are seeking to promote growth within a stable framework while reducing the deficit. We do not know what the credit rating agencies are going to do, but I can assure the noble Lord that people in the Treasury are not spending every night awake worrying about them. They are expending their efforts on promoting growth on the basis of a reducing budget deficit and a credible long-term macroeconomic policy.

Economy: Effect of US “Fiscal Cliff” Solution

Lord Peston Excerpts

Tuesday 8th January 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, the noble Lord will recall that in the Pre-Budget Statement my right honourable friend the Chancellor announced another £5.5 billion of additional capital spending on roads, science infrastructure and schools, and that earlier in the autumn we passed an Act providing guarantees for £40 billion for infrastructure and another £10 billion for housing. The Government are making considerable efforts to increase the amount of infrastructure activity.

[Lord Peston]

My Lords, as a life-long opponent of the death penalty, I might make an exception for whoever—I hope it was not an economist—invented the expression “fiscal cliff”. Do the Government accept the analysis that if the US goes more deeply into recession it will have devastating adverse effects on the whole of the European economy and no policy envisaged by this Government would be any use whatever?

[Lord Newby]

I think the noble Lord slightly overstates it. The fiscal cliff—elegant or inelegant—has been avoided and the expectations and the forecast for the US are that it will see relatively modest, but substantive, growth in 2013. As the noble Lord will know, the latest employment figures in the US suggest that there has been a significant addition to the number of people employed. Therefore, the chances of the kind of meltdown in the US economy that he is worried about look extraordinarily remote.