Brexit: Foreign Policy
Lord Pearson of Rannoch Excerpts(6 years, 10 months ago)
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Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon
We are, I believe, one of only a few leading nations that fully manifest our commitment to our defence spending and our development spending, which I know all noble Lords support. On the noble Lord’s substantive point about how we will continue to work with our European partners on important issues which he raises such as the refugee crisis that we have seen on European borders, again, if he was to look at the detail of the recent summit with the French, he would see that these kinds of issues come to the fore and decisions are being taken. While, yes, we are leaving the European Union, we will look to work in a collaborative way with our European Union partners once we leave.
Lord Pearson of Rannoch (UKIP)
My Lords, would the Government agree that we built and released an empire and saved Europe from herself in two world wars without any assistance from Brussels? Is not any new EU army pretty well bound to be a dangerous failure, like the EU itself?
Georgia
Lord Pearson of Rannoch Excerpts(6 years, 10 months ago)
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Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon
All noble Lords will be aware that, with the exception of Russia, as I mentioned, there are only, as I understand it, three countries—Nicaragua and Venezuela are two—which have actually recognised the two breakaway republics. To answer the question in reverse, all countries with the exception of those four recognise internationally the territorial sovereignty, including that of Georgia, over the two breakaway regions.
Lord Pearson of Rannoch (UKIP)
My Lords, do the Government agree that your Lordships’ collective wisdom would be of value to them in the controversial area of our relations with Russia generally? If so, will they consider arranging a full debate here before too long?
Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon
The collective wisdom of your Lordships’ House is of great value to the Government in all instances. As for a debate on Russia, I am sure that the appropriate usual channels will accommodate that request.
Russia
Lord Pearson of Rannoch Excerpts(7 years, 9 months ago)
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Baroness Anelay of St Johns
My Lords, my right honourable friend the Prime Minister has made it absolutely clear that we will support the continuation of sanctions until and unless all the aspects of the Minsk agreements are met. That is essential.
Lord Pearson of Rannoch (UKIP)
My Lords, do the Government agree that the treatment of Russian minorities in the Baltic states has been unhelpful to harmony with Russia? If so, what are they and the multicultural but ineffective European Union doing about it?
Brexit: British Embassies in EU Countries
Lord Pearson of Rannoch Excerpts(8 years, 1 month ago)
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Baroness Anelay of St Johns
My Lords, my right honourable friend the Prime Minister set out the way in which she would be consulting the devolved Administrations, and that Statement was repeated yesterday by my noble friend the Leader of this House. I do not intend to embellish upon that, but I will say that the devolved Administrations are key to the way in which the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland as a whole should prosper when we have left the European Union.
Lord Pearson of Rannoch
My Lords, how much do the Government pay to Brussels for our share of the numerous, large, expensive and pointless EU embassies all over the planet? Upon Brexit, could we not redirect that money to the area which troubles the noble Lord, Lord Wallace, or indeed anywhere else where it would be better spent—which is practically anywhere?
Baroness Anelay of St Johns
My Lords, when travelling around the world I have found it very helpful to be able to liaise with representatives of the External Action Service, for example earlier this year in Colombia. While we remain within the European Union we will continue to fund that service. However, subsequent to leaving the European Union I would still expect this country to have a diplomatic relationship with the EU, just as other countries such as Norway or the United States do, as the noble Lord will know.
Commonwealth Countries and Overseas Territories: European Union
Lord Pearson of Rannoch Excerpts(8 years, 5 months ago)
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Baroness Anelay of St Johns
The noble Lord is right to draw attention to the concerns that Gibraltarians would justifiably have if the UK were to leave the European Union. On defending sovereignty, the UK has made a commitment to defend and support Gibraltar’s interests, including upholding British sovereignty. The men and women of the British Armed Forces have worked tirelessly to do this prior to the referendum and will continue to do so after it. However, the noble Lord rings a warning bell.
Lord Pearson of Rannoch (UKIP)
My Lords, given the EU’s uselessness at signing free trade agreements on our behalf, would not one obvious advantage of Brexit be that, as the world’s fifth-largest economy, we could sign our own free trade deals with the Anglosphere, the Commonwealth and the markets of the future? How many more jobs would that create for us and for them?
Baroness Anelay of St Johns
First, my Lords, if it were a decision to leave the European Union, there would be a period of considerable uncertainty while we tried to negotiate deals, because the people with whom we wished to negotiate would justifiably point to the fact that we had not sorted out our own post-exit relationship with the European Union. We would not be a safe bet. With regard to what the EU has done, it has negotiated trade deals with more than 80% of the Commonwealth. We benefit from that.
EU: UK Settlement
Lord Pearson of Rannoch Excerpts(8 years, 5 months ago)
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Lord Pearson of Rannoch
To ask Her Majesty’s Government whether the European Council decision of 19 February is legally binding on the Court of Justice and the European Parliament before the European Union treaties are changed to reflect it, and when they expect that change to take place.
The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Baroness Anelay of St Johns) (Con)
My Lords, the international law decision contains legally binding and irreversible provisions specifying how certain articles in EU treaties should be interpreted. That interpretation will apply to all EU institutions, including the European Parliament. The Court of Justice confirmed that it is required to take such decisions into account when interpreting the treaties. The decision includes a commitment that the member states will, at the next opportunity, amend the treaties to address key UK concerns.
Lord Pearson of Rannoch (UKIP)
My Lords, I thank the noble Baroness for that Answer but she appears to forget the 1992 European Council in Edinburgh, which decided that national citizenship was superior to the new EU citizenship that had just been agreed at Maastricht. However, the Court of Justice overturned that, having merely taken it into account. How is the Prime Minister’s deal anything approaching the root-and-branch reform of the EU that he promised in his Bloomberg speech? If the Minister cannot say, is it honest of the Government to pretend that this deal justifies our staying in a wholly unreformed and clearly failing European Union? I ask the noble Baroness yet again: why do the Government want us to stay on the “Titanic”?
Baroness Anelay of St Johns
My Lords, my right honourable friend the Prime Minister successfully renegotiated a deal that is better for the UK than any before and means that we are stronger, better off, and safer within the European Union. He made sure that the agreement provided that we are protected by international law which means that this will be put into effect. That means we are in a better position than ever before. It is right that when those who go to vote make their minds up they bear all that in mind. I do not tell them how to vote. I certainly hope they will consider the facts carefully before they do so.
China: Market Economy Status
Lord Pearson of Rannoch Excerpts(8 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Price
The noble Baroness supports my own position: that the UK is stronger inside the EU. We have more trade agreements between the UK and the rest of the world than the United States and Canada together. We believe in free trade and, in our current position, we are best placed to access the world through free trade through the agreements that we have with the EU.
The Lord Privy Seal (Baroness Stowell of Beeston) (Con)
My Lords, you need to help me out when this happens. I suggest that we hear briefly from the noble Lord, Lord Pearson, and then go back to the Conservative Benches.
Lord Pearson of Rannoch
But my Lords, if we were not in the European Union, would we not be able to make our own free trade with China, as many smaller economies have done?
Jan Böhmermann
Lord Pearson of Rannoch Excerpts(8 years, 6 months ago)
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The Lord Privy Seal (Baroness Stowell of Beeston) (Con)
My Lords, I will take up time myself in order to adjudicate, if we are not careful. I think that the House is calling for the noble Lord, Lord Pearson.
Lord Pearson of Rannoch
My Lords, does not this shameful story and its related prospect of 85 million Turks being free to enter the whole Schengen area show us yet again that the project of European integration has failed and should be abandoned? As I have asked the noble Baroness and others several times—and never had a satisfactory answer—what is now the point of the European Union?
Baroness Anelay of St Johns
My Lords, the point of the European Union is to give great strength to democracy, which is what it is doing, on a regional basis. The noble Lord refers to this as a shameful incident; there are many ways of describing it. I just point out, while not interfering with the German process, that when Jan Böhmermann started to read out the poem, he recognised that what would follow would be deliberately offensive and forbidden in Germany. When we do not like the law, let us change the law.
European Union Referendum Bill
Lord Pearson of Rannoch Excerpts(9 years ago)
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Lord Hannay of Chiswick (CB)
My Lords, I shall speak to Amendment 24C. In doing so, I pay tribute to the Minister for the way in which she has listened to the points raised, with some force and detail, in Committee. With the two amendments that she has produced today—Amendment 24A, in response to an amendment from the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, which I also felt was absolutely justified, so I am delighted that she has picked up his amendment and turned it into a government one, and Amendment 24B, which deals with matters that I and others raised—I think that she has made a major effort to meet the point that we made in Committee, and which I continue to make, which is that there will be a need for the electorate to receive factual, objective information from the Government about these extremely complex matters, additional to any information that will come to them, no doubt in tsunamis of rhetoric, from the two campaigns. The campaigns will be advocates but the electorate has to make a judgment, and it will be of essential value to them to have objective factual material provided by the Government. That is why we were extremely dissatisfied with the absence of any provision for this in the original Bill that was drafted by the Government and which came to us with the imprimatur of the other place because we felt that it was a completely inadequate basis on which to move forward to what is after all, as the Prime Minister said, one of the most significant and important decisions that this country has had to take for many decades. So that is a very good step forward.
I shall explain why we felt that the Government should be prepared to go further and be a bit more specific than they are in Amendment 24B, or at least than they were before the Minister gave some rather helpful clarifications this afternoon. I shall take two examples—two sub-headings—that illustrate the amendments that I and others have proposed. I start with Gibraltar because the Minister has mentioned it. What the effects of withdrawal would be is of importance to more people than just the people of Gibraltar. Our own wider electorate needs to know that Gibraltar became part of the EU only because it was a dependent territory for whose foreign affairs the United Kingdom was responsible. That was the sole basis on which it became a member, and therefore if the UK left, it would leave. That has quite important implications for the vexed issue of the land border with Spain, for example, which would cease to be an internal border of the EU and would become an external one. These are facts, not matters of opinion; they do not seek to draw the Government on to what would come after an Article 50 negotiation or anything like that. They are just so that the electorate knows that, the moment they cast their votes, certain consequences could follow from it.
Secondly, I take the law and order issue. The European arrest warrant was debated at enormous length in both Houses at the time of the Protocol 36 negotiations two years ago. It became apparent during that debate that the European arrest warrant is extraordinarily important for this country in terms of recovering indicted criminals from abroad and returning EU citizens who are accused of often very heinous crimes from here to the country where they have been indicted. These are hugely important for our law and order and our battle against international crime.
In those debates, it also became apparent how important the European arrest warrant is for the Good Friday agreement and what goes on in Northern Ireland because it has depoliticised the extradition arrangements between Ireland and Northern Ireland. In the past, they have been highly politicised and have led to a number of very unsatisfactory discussions between the two Governments, often not leading to the return of criminals who have committed terrible offences. Therefore it is important for the electorate to know that the European arrest warrant would disappear in this country if we left. I am not talking about what we might try to put in its place, the fantasies about negotiating 27 extradition agreements with the other member states or anything like that. I do not want to go there. That is not where the amendment was intended to go.
This afternoon, the Minister has given some important clarifications on a large number of the detailed specifics that I introduced. I and others will need to study them with great care. However, on the point about Gibraltar and the devolved Administrations, I entirely understand what she is saying—that it would not be right for the Government, off their own bat, to write in a report what the consequences were going to be for Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales or Gibraltar without consulting them and without having their view—but I hope that in her reply to this debate the Minister will go a little further. She said that the devolved Administrations and Gibraltar will be able to produce their own reports. That is fine. They would be reports to their parts of the electorate. I do not imagine—I do not speak in any disparaging way—that they will be widely read by the electorate of this country, yet the issues involve the electorate of the whole United Kingdom. Therefore, I hope that she will be able to say that after consultation with the Government of Gibraltar and the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland Administrations and assuming—I do not see why they should have any objection—that they are willing to do so, the Government will include the implications for the Administrations of Northern Ireland, Wales, Scotland and Gibraltar in the report to which Amendment 24B refers. This will allow the whole electorate to have a proper sight of all the implications. Frankly, those implications, particularly with regard to Northern Ireland and also to Scotland and Wales, could be very far-ranging. Therefore, I hope that when the Minister replies to this debate, she will able to cover that point.
We are making progress now. I shall listen with great care to the Minister’s reply. Others who proposed this amendment may wish to take up other points on which they would like to have clarification. Meanwhile, I look forward with interest to the Minister’s reply.
Lord Pearson of Rannoch (UKIP)
My Lords, buried somewhere in this group of amendments and, I think, in the remarks of the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, is the question about what happens on Brexit to all the EU law which is now sewn into our domestic law. That law will remain valid until repealed. I hope that it will be helpful to your Lordships if I recall that in 1997 I got a Bill through its Second Reading in your Lordships’ House, on a vote, that would have taken the UK out of the EU. The same question arose, since one is not allowed to table Bills which cannot be executed in practice. At the time, the clerks’ advice was that it would have taken about a dozen parliamentary draftsmen about one month to identify all the EU legislation that was then part of our domestic law. The laws that the Government of the day wanted to repeal could have been brought before Parliament either singly or collectively for Parliament to repeal. Of course, the volume of EU law would be much larger now, the draftsmen required rather more numerous and/or the timescale proportionately greater. However, I make the point that the process and its happy outcome would be the same, and there is no reason why it should not be undertaken.
Lord Hannay of Chiswick
I point out that I am not in receipt of such a pension. If the noble Lord was referring to me, perhaps he will withdraw the reference. I am not sure who he thinks he was referring to among those on the Order Paper, but as far as I am concerned, I am not and never have been in receipt of a pension from the European Union. I ask the noble Lord to consider the fact that he will have ample opportunity in the name of his party to put forward his views, including those on the giant octopus in Brussels, which seems to be taking a day out today. The purpose of this amendment was not as he has erroneously described it; the purpose of this amendment was to persuade the Government, which we will perhaps succeed in doing, to provide factual, objective information that will enable the electorate to make up their mind on the point the noble Lord raises.
Lord Pearson of Rannoch
My Lords, if the noble Lord is not in receipt of an EU pension, I have nothing to clarify. I do not have to name names. I am referring to previous employees of the European Union—in particular, of the Commission—who are in receipt of EU pensions, which they can lose if they go against the interests of the European Union. If no one feels guilty in that regard, of course they have nothing to say. On the amendment, I am going into the fundamental reasons why it is misguided, and with the noble Lord’s permission, I will continue.
It is some time since I reminded your Lordships of that founding idea, which was that the European nations had caused so much bloodshed over the centuries that they had to be gradually emasculated and put under a new form of technocratic government that was to supplant national democracy, which it has indeed done; hence the EU’s absurd claim to have brought peace to Europe since 1945, which was instead of course secured by NATO; hence also the huge but little-understood powers of the unelected Commission, with its monopoly to propose new legislation, in secret—which is now so much of our own legislation—and then to execute that legislation when it has been through the Brussels sausage machine, imposing heavy fines along the way, and subject only to that engine of EU integration, the Luxembourg court. The Commission also manages the EU budget—so badly that its accounts have not been signed off for 21 years. Believe it or not, the Commission also negotiates all our foreign trade agreements—so badly that we still do not have a free trade agreement with China, India, Russia, the USA, Australia, Canada and many of the markets of the future. Singapore has had them all for 10 years. Who knows what that failure has cost our economy; the amendment refers to our economy.
As to what is left of our democracy while we stay in the EU, the Euro-lie goes that it is upheld in the Council of Ministers from the nation states, where we have only 12% of the votes and where we have been defeated on every single one of the 55 new laws we have opposed since 1996.
My first point is, therefore, that even if we did get any advantage from our EU membership, in any of the areas mentioned in the amendment, it would still not be worth it because the price would have been our democracy. However, the fact is that we do not, as my noble friend Lord Willoughby de Broke will confirm.
Europhiles try to frighten us by pretending that jobs would be lost if we left the EU. We are back to the economy again.
Lord Foulkes of Cumnock (Lab)
When the noble Lord is talking about democracy, what does he think of the democracy where a party—the UK Independence Party, say—gets a large percentage of the vote but only one seat in the Parliament? Is that the vibrant democracy that he believes in?
Lord Pearson of Rannoch
My Lords, no, of course not. If the noble Lord would care to read my peroration on this subject on 15 September, he will see that I opined that our first past the post system no longer produces a vibrant democracy in this country. The system which sends Members of Parliament to the House of Commons should be changed. Then one might find that the UK Independence Party would get one or two more seats.
As I was saying, Europhiles still try to frighten us that jobs would be lost if we left the EU. However, we would keep our free trade with the single market because we are its largest client. We have some 3 million jobs selling things to clients there, but it has 4.5 million jobs selling things to its clients here. Our Europhile friends then conveniently forget that only about 9% of our economy goes in trade with the single market, declining and in deficit; some 11% goes to the rest of the world, expanding and in surplus; but 80% stays in our domestic economy. Yet Brussels overregulation strangles all 100% of our economy.
Another Europhile silly one is to point out that we would still have to obey single market rules if we left the EU.
Lord Wallace of Saltaire (LD)
My Lords, we are on Report. I have heard the noble Lord, Lord Pearson of Rannoch, repeat these familiar arguments many times in the House, but I am not entirely sure that we are addressing the amendment under discussion.
Lord Pearson of Rannoch
My Lords, I think I am addressing it. I am going into the fundamental reasons why the amendment is misguided. I will continue, if I may. Only 9% of our economy goes to the single market and this is the percentage of our exports and economy for which we would have to follow EU rules. Of course we would, just as it pays to put the steering wheel on the left if you are selling a car to the United States.
Talking of cars, Europhiles give our car industry as one which would suffer if we left the EU. Once again, I remind noble Lords of Global Britain’s briefing note No. 96, which shows why that is nonsense. We import twice as many cars from the single market as we export to it—1.4 million in and 0.6 million out. EU manufacturers actually own 53% of our domestic car market. Why would they want to impose a tariff against their own profitable business? Indeed, I can go further and recommend that Europhiles particularly, and our civil servants, should take a little time to read the Global Britain briefing notes, which briefly but comprehensively destroy the economic case for staying in the EU.
In conclusion, the amendment makes the basic Europhile mistake of thinking that any area of our national life is funded by the EU, whereas of course for every £1 it sends us at the moment we have sent it £2.63. According to the latest Pink Book figures for 2014, we sent £19.994 billion gross in 2014 and the EU sent us back £7.665 billion for things such as our research budget, structural funds, farmers and so forth, as covered by the amendment. That leaves our net contribution at £12.329 billion per annum. That is £34 million a day, which goes down the drain in Brussels. Or we could look at it as the annual salaries of 352,257 policemen—of whom we could do with a few more right now—or nurses or any other public servant your Lordships may care to mention, at £35,000 a year each.
I would rather welcome the amendment if it were honestly fulfilled because the voters would understand better what a complete disaster is our membership of the European Union and they might even start to ask what is the point of the European Union itself. They might start to see it for what it is. It is an emperor whose clothes have long since fallen off.
Lord Lea of Crondall (Lab)
My Lords, it would appear that despite our best efforts, this whole objective of some degree of dispassionate analysis will nevertheless wind up as a dog’s breakfast. We have to persist in trying to follow what the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, accurately described as the distinction between things that are facts and things that are for debate between the two opposing camps. A good example in the Brexit scenario is one that I will cover now.
A key distinction behind these amendments is similar to what Mr Rumsfeld would have described as the difference between a known known and a known unknown. I have an example. I have in my hand a copy of the pamphlet that I helped to put together entitled Europe and Your Rights at Work. Since Maastricht, there have been 10 or a dozen very important reforms that are now on the statute book, such as protection when a business changes hands, equal rights for part-time workers, maternity and paternity rights, equal rights for fixed-term workers, four weeks’ paid holiday—although that falls under the health and safety regime. Other reforms include having a voice at work, European Works Councils, the posting of workers in Europe and health and safety at work.
Those were negotiated—I did a lot of that myself for some years—in Brussels between the leaders of the trade unions and the leaders of the employers. The result is that, despite the sound and fury at the beginning, we do not hear too much complaint now because everyone, including the employers, appreciates that they are a useful floor for employment rights in this country.
Baroness Anelay of St Johns
My Lords, I believe that we will select examples of countries that can best inform the people of this country about how they should cast their vote. We must not try to skew that. Clearly, it would be a balanced selection of countries. I would not like to define now what will be in the report because that would assume that I would be writing it—I will not be.
Lord Pearson of Rannoch
For instance, will the noble Baroness assure us that the Government will give us a summary of the free-trade agreements reached by Singapore, whether we would be able to emulate Singapore and within what timescale? At the moment, we have none of those.
Baroness Anelay of St Johns
My Lords, I believe I have answered that question twice. I would test the patience of the House were I to repeat myself a second time.
With regard to the devolved Administrations in the renegotiation, as foreign policy issues are reserved matters, relations with the European Union are the responsibility of Parliament and the Government of the UK. However, the UK Government involve the devolved Administrations as directly and fully as possible in decision-making in EU matters that touch on devolved areas. Further, Ministers have held meetings with representatives of the devolved Administrations. Most recently, the Minister for Europe met Fiona Hyslop MSP, the Cabinet Secretary for Culture, Europe and External Affairs, on 11 November to discuss the EU reform process. The renegotiation is now a standing item at quarterly meetings of the Joint Ministerial Committee on Europe, which allows Ministers from the devolved Administrations to feed in their views ahead of the meetings of European Councils. The next such meeting is next month. I hope that is the information that the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, requested.
The noble Lord also asked whether the report described under Amendment 24B would cover matters such as structural funds and how they impact on the region. I thank the noble Lord for his contribution to this debate. He reminded us of the importance of these matters at Second Reading, in Committee and, quite rightly, now, too. I remarked in my opening speech that the report under government Amendment 24B would indeed cover important rights such as the right to apply for structural funds. Where appropriate, we will set this information in context. However, again, I am not in a position to set out the exact contents of the report today. Clearly, it is a matter of making sure that the information is as balanced and full as is appropriate.
I was also asked by the noble Baroness, Lady Morgan, and the noble Lord, Lord Lea of Crondall, whether employment rights would be covered. I briefly referred to that in my opening remarks, but they were quite detailed, so I can give the assurance that employment rights would be covered under the report required by government Amendment 24B, as indeed would the rights of EU citizens referred to by the noble Baronesses, Lady Smith of Newnham and Lady Morgan. They would be covered by Amendment 24B.
In coming to my final words on this group of amendments, I reflect on the fact that what we have sought to achieve is to listen to the request of the House to table amendments that provide a factual basis on which people can make up their minds when they cast their votes. Government Amendments 24A and 24B will ensure that the public are crystal clear on what EU membership currently entails for the UK and how the EU has been reformed. This will enable them to make their decisions in an informed way at the referendum.
The Government reports are intended to be informative, objective and evidence-based. It will be for others—the campaigners—to then take from the report such information as perhaps fits their case, and to use it with regard to other information they may have when they talk about risk assessments and views. That is a matter for another day, although I know we have had quite a flavour of it today.
In conclusion, when Amendment 24A is called in its place, I will move it, and Amendment 24B. I hope they will both be acceptable to the House and I hope the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, will not press his Amendment 24C as an amendment to Amendment 24B. I beg to move.
European Union Referendum Bill
Lord Pearson of Rannoch Excerpts(9 years ago)
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Lord Kerr of Kinlochard
There are probably greater experts on Article 50 than me; but, as the noble Lord undoubtedly knows, paragraph 3 makes it clear that the two years is extendable, if all parties agree. I believe that, if we were in an Article 50 negotiation, it would almost certainly be necessary to extend it. I beg to move.
Lord Pearson of Rannoch (UKIP)
My Lords, do I understand Mr Redwood’s position to be that, if we repeal the 1972 Act, all the other treaties that come after that Act—the Single European Act, Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice and Lisbon—are all amendments to the original 1972 Act? If we repeal the 1972 Act, the other 27 member states may start getting difficult with us, but it is unlikely. We should be in the driving seat, not least because of the amount of money we give them, which of course we need not decide to axe overnight. We could say that if they behave themselves, we will taper the £20 billion a year we give them nice and slowly. Likewise, it is in their interests to go along with us and our free trade with them, the single market and all the rest of it, because we are their largest clients—as I said earlier. We have a certain amount of pressure with the non-EU free trade agreements, some of which have been organised entirely by the Commission and some by the European Commission and us in our sovereign right, as I am sure the noble Lord knows. It is a boggy area, but surely it depends on the political will of the Government of this country, and the political will of the Prime Minister.
Therefore I put it to the noble Lord that he is seeking to gaze into a crystal ball that is somewhat clouded. If the Prime Minister has negotiated a reform and comes back from Brussels with a piece of white paper saying “Reform in our time”, but the British people do not like it—if the British Prime Minister wants to stay in the European Union on those terms but the British people throw it out and vote against him—surely it is unlikely that he would survive as Prime Minister. Therefore, we would be dealing with a new Conservative Prime Minister, presumably somewhat less Europhile than the present one, and the whole ball game would change in the negotiations over Article 50, if we decided to go down the Article 50 route. Surely, though, we are in a position to say that we are not going to do that. Our position is so strong that we require our own free trade agreement. I do not want to follow the Norwegian/European Economic Area red herring anymore, because none of us has ever wanted to do that. How does the noble Lord react to that position, with a Prime Minister who has gone, a new Conservative leader who wants to get on with it, and a European Union that perhaps will not be as recalcitrant as the noble Lord hopes?
Lord Hamilton of Epsom (Con)
I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Green, for telling us that the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, drafted all this legislation. I think he should have declared an interest, because the last thing he will want to admit is that the EU is going to completely override everything that he drafted. When the eurozone was set up, I remember it was thought that there would be a big problem if Governments borrowed excessively and cumulative debt built up to very high levels of GDP, so limits were put in on how much Governments should borrow in the eurozone. The Germans found that too inconvenient, so they just overrode it. Then the French followed, and everybody else said, “If they are not going to follow the rules, why should we bother?”. So why are we obsessed with the legislative integrity of Article 50? It has never been tested; no one has ever left the EU. If we were to leave, it would be a unique situation. They would be losing their second biggest economy, and they would have to accommodate us.
Let us remember another thing that the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, omitted to tell us. This referendum will be advisory, not mandatory, and that is very significant.