Tunisia

Lord Patten Excerpts

Wednesday 30th November 2016 Lords Chamber

[Lord Patten (Con)]

That speech was well worth waiting for and I warmly congratulate the noble Baroness on what she said and how she said it. There are three points that I want to turn to: Tunisia in the changing geopolitics of the eastern and central Mediterranean; security; and what the UK can do in the light of Tunisia being more part of the francophone, Mediterranean littoral than of the anglophone sphere of influence. None the less, there is much that we can do.

First, on geopolitics, what seems to be happening at the moment is that we have a period of general disinclination of one great power—the USA—to get more involved on the ground in areas such as this, at the same time as a once-great power—Russia—is ever keener to reassert itself. There is an emerging and growing arc of difficulty where it is doing so, stretching from Tunisia right round the eastern arc of the Mediterranean to Syria and Turkey. The Russians are piling assets and people into the whole region and have now, in Syria, the warm-water, ever-ice-free port that they have sought for centuries.

I do not think that they plan to leave soon—or, indeed, at all. I think the Russians are there to stay in Syria, and we have to get used to that. And their influence will spread further. I may well already be reaching the small country of Tunisia, which is placed geographically at the pivot of the mid-Mediterranean, so it is very strategically located in geopolitical terms. As we have just heard, very few UK tourists—let alone French tourists—go there at the moment. But I am told that the new linchpin of tourism is Russian tourism. The Russians are now coming in increasing numbers to seek sun, sea and Carthage in that country. Russian investment in-country is also greatly increasing in liquefied gas and infrastructure. The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, showed considerable interest in the place all of a sudden not very long ago. These are very interesting signs of things to come.

Secondly, Tunisia’s security is vital. Tunisia’s own Defence Minister, Farhat Horchani, said on 6 September this year:

“We have a large number of … fighters who arrived from Sirte, or from Syria. I can see no strategy, no cooperation between the states”.

Getting that co-operation on terrorism in the arc of difficulty from Turkey around to Tunisia is vital, yet it is not easy for the West, including the UK, as we found in next-door Libya a few years back. It is terribly easy to go in and kick the door down with air power and missiles; it is exquisitely difficult thereafter to make change stick on the ground. That is one of the problems we have seen in Libya, and one of the problems we will continue to see in the region.

One great hope is that so far political change has happened in Tunisia, with a Prime Minister’s moving without there being rioting in the streets. That happened in a parliamentary way, which I think was an act of considerable political maturity. But we must all be aware that, as we have seen at the eastern end of the Mediterranean arc, elections can be used to bring about a de facto elective dictatorship—for example, President Erdogan in Turkey with his new 1,100-roomed palace, the mass persecution of the media, suppression of dissent and the rest. We do not want to see that in Tunisia under any circumstances.

Thirdly, we have got to do our little bit. I understand that there is about £8 million in the budget this year going forward to be spent in Tunisia. We should do all we can. It is difficult to deal with the foreign travel advice—but foreign travel advice is there to be listened to. I am amazed that there is not similar advice for many areas in Turkey at the moment, where I think there are considerable dangers. For example, only in August this year, the head of the anti-graft body in Tunisia said that the economy would benefit enormously from help because corruption had reached an epidemic stage—he was not talking about tourism. That is not a happy backdrop for the two-day inward investment conference in Tunisia, which closes tonight.

This is set against the background of some 500 foreign firms having left the country since the Arab spring and the terrible terrorist attacks that happened afterwards, with the graduate unemployment of 30% or more that has been left behind. With a little budget we can do a lot to try to help democratic institutions, NGOs, civic society and anti-corruption bodies and support financial sector reform and entrepreneurship.

In all this, our relatively small embassy in Tunisia has done a very great deal in the face of some terrific security problems. It has met the challenges very well under the leadership of our outgoing ambassador, Hamish Cowell. We hope that the embassy staff will hear what the noble Baroness, Lady Suttie, said about them tonight, including her thanks to them. We should thank them for what they are doing in Tunis.