Autumn Statement

Lord Newby Excerpts

Wednesday 3rd December 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Deighton]

I, too, look forward to the debate tomorrow. The thing that resonated with me was the noble Lord’s reference to a clear record of failure, and he should know. Let us compare records. Fortunately, the previous Government wrote its own when it left a note for the Chief Secretary, with three words: “No money left”. Let us look at the record of this Government. We have the fastest-growing economy in the G7, demonstrating well balanced growth across all the industrial sectors and spread effectively regionally. We have record levels of employment, and record falls in long-term unemployment and youth unemployment. We have restored this country’s fiscal credibility from the record deficit we inherited. We have halved the deficit this year and are still on path to eliminating it by 2018-19.

If you look at the work of the OBR, you will see that the borrowing is slightly higher this year and next year, and slightly lower in the next two years, taking us to a surplus of £4 billion in 2018-19. I fully accept that we are not as effective in reducing it as our predecessors were in increasing it, but we are doing a pretty good job, given the global economic environment. We have also seen extremely low and falling levels of inflation; we are investing in business and productivity; and we have supported people through the recovery from the depths of a savage financial crisis by reducing personal allowances, making sure that we have frozen fuel duty, freezing council taxes, capping the rise in rail fares, et cetera.

I fully accept that this country has a long-term productivity problem. I am looking forward to the debate tomorrow, in which I am sure we will get some insights into how to cure that. My right honourable friend the Chancellor was not short in his analysis or the work he is doing on that. Quite simply, productivity has to come from: increasing the Government’s own efficiency; creating space for the private sector; and increasing the dynamism of the private sector through lower taxes and infrastructure investment, which we have discussed. By the way, as regards this Government’s record on infrastructure, through this Parliament £47 billion will have been spent on infrastructure, private and public. In the previous Parliament it was £41 billion. That is a 15% increase, which, in the context of the financial environment, particularly in the first few years, is extraordinary.

The noble Lord was right to say that there has been a shortfall in tax receipts, which is the principal reason why borrowing this year is a little higher. It is higher than was forecast in the Budget, although it is still coming down and will go down every year. Everyone was prepared to say that it was going up. No, the deficit continues to come down. I should explain the situation on tax receipts, which is important. Again, it is the productivity issue: the economy has grown faster than earnings. There is also an interpretation issue; in the second half of the year, we will see tax receipts do a little better than last year, when they were front-loaded—so there is an adjustment there. The biggest reconciliation of the difference between the OBR forecast this time and at the time of the Budget is the £16 billion improvement we get in reduced interest costs because interest rates are coming down, principally because inflation is under control. I have been trying for some time to find a good reason for having a high debt level. This is the only one I can think of: when interest rates are low, the interest burden comes down. That explains two-thirds of our ability to decrease spending in a couple of years’ time to make up the shortfall in tax receipts.

I want to dwell a little longer on the earnings situation. The noble Lord is right that earnings have not recovered as fast as we all would have wanted. People have been faced with difficult challenges. I have listed the kind of measures the Government have taken to mitigate the impact on our citizens. The reason is simply because the economy recovered more slowly than we expected. That was a result of the crisis being deeper than we had understood at the time, very high commodity prices in 2011-12 and a very weak eurozone. Essentially, that delayed the recovery; that explains why it is taking longer to get the deficit down. The Government have a clear plan to get us there. In listening to the series of observations the noble Lord made, I could not, with the best will in the world, detect an alternative plan.

The noble Lord raised two other points. I absolutely agree that our export performance is weak. It has been for some time. Addressing some of our productivity problems and improving the performance of our businesses will be at the heart of improving our export performance. The weakness of the eurozone—the customer for about 40% of our exports—is of course an important factor. We have been very focused, through our interventions with UKTI and UK Export Finance, on supporting the growth of exports to other markets, which in volume terms are, I think, up about 18% since 2010. We have to support that switch away from the slow-moving markets to the faster-growing markets. I absolutely accept that.

Before opening up to broader questions, I will mention housing. It is both a supply and a demand question. We are working very hard to increase supply, whether it is through the individual schemes that my right honourable friend the Chancellor went through at Bicester, Ebbsfleet, Barking, Brent Cross and the four London estates that are being regenerated, or at Northstowe, where we are freeing up land for building. We are also putting more money into affordable housing. If noble Lords were to add up all the schemes and initiatives in the Autumn Statement, they will come up with a very sizeable increase to supply. On the demand side, Help to Buy has been very successful. Continuing low interest rates are very successful and the radical reform to stamp duty rationalises that very inefficient tax in a way that will support home buyers, particularly at the lower end of the market.

Finally, the Government have increased spending during this Parliament by nearly £13 billion to support the National Health Service. I will not repeat the individual initiatives. As the noble Lord pointed out, we have made a down payment of an extra £2 billion, which is the pro rata amount that the chief executive of the National Health Service has asked for to get it to £8 billion by the end of the next Parliament. Again, a great plan has been established. We will finance it on the basis of its merits.

[Lord Newby (LD)]

My Lords, I remind the House that there are now 20 minutes for questions. The briefer the questions are, the more we will have time for.