(2 weeks, 4 days ago)
Lords ChamberTo ask His Majesty’s Government what steps they are taking to encourage entrepreneurs to start up businesses in the United Kingdom.
My Lords, in begging leave to ask the Question standing in my name on the Order Paper, I declare my interests as set out in the register.
My Lords, the Government continue to provide support for entrepreneurs, including through start-up loans via the British Business Bank and programmes such as growth hubs across England and the Help to Grow: Management course across the UK. The Government will also publish a small business strategy next year, which will outline our vision for boosting scale-ups and helping all types of small businesses to thrive and grow, empowering entrepreneurs to innovate, export and create jobs across their regions.
I thank the Minister for his response and I am delighted to see a fellow entrepreneur on the Front Bench—unlike in the other place. Fundraising for start-ups, in the quarter to September, dropped by almost 50% to a six-year low. Both start-ups and scale-ups have been hit by the toxic trio of measures: hikes in capital gains tax, hikes in employers’ national insurance, and hikes in the minimum wage running at three times the rate of inflation. First, on behalf of entrepreneurs, I ask: when will we see meaningful measures to encourage, rather than punish, job creation and risk-taking? Secondly, whatever happened to the Chancellor’s pledge to run
“the most pro-growth Treasury in our country’s history”?
I thank the noble Lord for his kind words. We have something in common in that we both founded our respective publishing companies in the 1980s, in the tail-end of the recession and through very challenging economic times. The difference is that he went on to build a huge business empire, compared with mine.
There were definitely fewer funding rounds for start- ups in the last quarter. The age of FOMO—the fear of missing out—on investment, which caused a spike in the last couple of years, has to a certain extent come and gone. However, angel investment, such as EIS with tax rebates of 30% to 50%, remains robust and I am pleased that the Chancellor has now given certainty that this will stay in place until 2035.
The Government’s new modern industrial strategy—
(2 months, 1 week ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, I salute the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, for securing this debate. It is a huge and complex subject to cover in five minutes but, in the spirit of productivity, I will do my best. As we have heard, measuring public sector productivity is challenging—it has a range of qualitative aspects, not simply outputs or revenues. That said, UK public sector productivity has barely moved since 1997, while our private sector productivity, which lags many other countries, has advanced by 30%. That is some gap.
I will focus on the workforce and management. For 30 years, I ran a publishing business with numerous teams across the world, with similar targets, pay scales and incentives. They shared the same technology and infrastructure, yet team productivity varied wildly. There turned out to be two key factors: first, rigorous and smart recruitment and, secondly, effective management. Middle and senior management was absolutely key— the difference between being 20% over target and 20% under.
However, here in the UK, we struggle with management. Across our 32 million workforce, 8 million have a managerial role. Of those, 6 million are deemed to be “accidental managers”, with little or no formal training, learning as they go. As the Policy Exchange points out in its excellent report on NHS productivity, it is not about the volume of managers but about their competencies, how their roles are defined and where they are placed.
Rigidity in our public sector means that promotion to management is too often correlated to the number of years worked rather than aptitude or, indeed, attitude, and management itself is often resistant to change. We struggle to incentivise public sector workers on productivity. It is not in the culture, but it should be. Productive organisations set ambitious targets, engage their workforce and reward performance. But Governments, when they talk about productivity, tend to focus on cost savings, efficiency and value for money—not very inspiring.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves says that she has “fired the starting gun” to drive greater productivity in the public sector. She said:
“I expect all levels of government to be run effectively and efficiently … a civil service delivering good value for the British taxpayer and reform of our political institutions, including the House of Lords, to keep costs as low as possible”.—[Official Report, Commons, 29/7/24; col. 1039.]
Yes, we in Parliament should set a better example, but it turns out that House of Lords reform means removing one of the most productive groups in this House: the 90 elected hereditary peers—I declare an interest—and leaving in place well over 100 life Peers who barely ever attend, vote or contribute in any way. I am looking at some rather deserted Benches. That is politics, not productivity.
There is a wider problem. If we do not recognise and reward performance, productivity suffers. The latest round of public sector pay increases for doctors, teachers and train drivers did not just add £9 billion to that infernal black hole, they were rewarded without any commitment to a plan to improve productivity.
We need a fundamental reset: setting up a non-partisan productivity council on a statutory footing would be a start. I have suggested this three times before and never got any response. This body would inform, co-ordinate and evaluate policies that impact productivity across all departments, including the excellent idea of the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, of productivity assessments, which I wholeheartedly endorse. I look forward to hearing the Minister’s thoughts.
(9 months, 2 weeks ago)
Lords ChamberThe figures are broken down in some of the analysis that has been done by the ONS. Of course, the ONS is independent and impartial, which is an important strength. On students, it is important that the number of dependants coming into the UK should be limited, although we do understand that those who are going to stay in the UK to do PhDs and so on need to have dependants contributing to our country and our economy.
My Lords, the uncomfortable truth is that our economy appears to be incapable of growing without onboarding some 300,000 migrant workers each year. Even then, we are talking about miserly growth and, worse still, zero GDP growth per capita. Does the Minister agree that, until we tackle our abysmal productivity rates, such population growth is here to stay?
I agree that we must tackle our abysmal productivity rates. It is something I have focused on, I have to say, since long before I came to this House. There are things that we can do with skills. I look forward to the Budget on Wednesday and hope that the word “productivity” will feature in the speech by the Chancellor.
(2 years, 2 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, first, I congratulate my noble friend Lady Gohir on her passionate and eloquent maiden speech. We look forward to hearing much more from her from the Cross Benches.
As we have heard, the Prime Minister’s economic strategy is, “Growth, growth, growth”. This has unfortunate echoes of her predecessor who, just five months ago, trumpeted the slogan, “Jobs, jobs, jobs”, at a time of record unfilled vacancies. Single repetitive word slogans often suggest oversimplified approaches, with wilful disregard for the consequences. Indeed, the Chancellor appears to have grabbed the helm of a vessel without consulting the crew on the weather or sea conditions and slammed down the throttle with the fuel tank on reserve and oil lights flashing. I will not prolong the nautical metaphor, but you get my drift.
Sustained economic growth requires a qualitative, not quantitative, approach, especially in a period of high inflation and supply side shortages—not least our shrinking workforce. We have economic inactivity levels not seen anywhere else in Europe, while our productivity remains in the doldrums. These are the issues that need to be addressed, and they will not be solved by tax cuts and escalating debt. If you think you can buy growth this way, the markets will find you out—indeed, they already have. Growth needs to be sustainable, balanced and, I suggest, broadly distributed. Achieving 2.5% is far from ideal if only 10% of the population benefit.
Let us reflect for a moment on the impacts of the proposed tax cuts, especially amid a cost of living crisis. Do we give a £20,000 tax break to one person—let us say a mid-ranking City lawyer earning £500,000 a year—or a £1,000 tax break to 20 people earning the median average salary of £26,000? The cost to the Treasury is the same but I argue, as an entrepreneur and business investor, that the impact on growth will be much more significant if you reward at the margins. I do not have time to preach the theory of marginal utility but I urge the Ministers to brief both No. 10 and No. 11 on its relevance in relation to taxation and growth.
So how do we engineer real economic growth? I have two suggestions. First, we now have a very competitive exchange rate, close to record lows against the US dollar. Remember what happened back in 1992 when we exited the ERM: sterling lost 20% of its value —a gift from the markets—and our economy grew by 3% per annum over the rest of the decade, fuelled by a boom in exports. I ask the Minister: what are the new Government’s plans to seize this opportunity?
Secondly, we must address the UK’s anaemic productivity, which in terms of output per hour still lags both France and the US by some 15%. This is where our political system serves us very poorly. We need to stick to targeted, long-term measures to spur productivity, addressing education and skills, and the chronic underinvestment in both the public and private sectors. Would the Government consider setting up a productivity task force, or at least an advisory board, that includes those at the cutting edge of the private sector, who build businesses, create jobs, balance the books, count the beans and have first-hand experience of what drives productivity, and indeed growth?
(3 years, 1 month ago)
Grand CommitteeMy Lords, I should like briefly to focus on four key areas of the economy, all of which are connected: wage inflation, labour shortages, productivity and, finally, education. By way of quick introduction, since I am relatively new to this place, I should say that I am drawing chiefly on my own experience in the private sector—30 years as an entrepreneur and employer and the last seven years as an adviser and investor in start-ups. It is a particular pleasure to follow the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, the noble Lord, Lord Lamont of Lerwick, and, in her heartfelt valedictory speech, the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Newcastle, whose comments I found myself endorsing.
The Government’s aim to build back better and create a higher-wage economy sounds good in theory but, as many employers will tell you, wage inflation without genuine increases in productivity is something of a fool’s paradise and certainly not sustainable in the long term. Wage increases ultimately need to be earned rather than given, and that applies to the private and public sectors. There really is no magic money tree, to quote one of our former Prime Ministers. The CBI director-general, Tony Danker, put it very well last week:
“Ambition on wages without action on investment and productivity is ultimately just a pathway for higher prices”.
Taking the Treasury’s own forecast alongside those of the OBR, higher wages, as we have heard, will contribute to inflation rising to 4.4% next year, although in the statement the OBR admits to the risk that it might exceed 5%, while some independent economists are now talking about 6% or 7%. Given that GDP is expected to grow by 6% next year, still with very high levels of borrowing, there is a real danger of interest rate rises coming along just at the time when many will be facing an economic squeeze.
Added to that, we have serious supply shortages, not least in the labour market itself. Businesses across the country are struggling to recruit and retain staff, not just in care homes, hospitality and retail, or HGV drivers, but in many areas of skilled labour, including middle and senior management. One leading executive search consultant in the tech sector told me only yesterday that they had never seen such an imbalance between job vacancies and the pool of available talent. This tight labour market has been made worse by the absence of a comprehensive immigration policy post Brexit. Such shortages of both skilled and unskilled labour are resulting in employers having to pay higher wages to both attract and retain staff.
To boost living standards in real terms we need sustained growth and productivity, something that we have not seen in more than 10 years. Since 2010 the UK’s productivity, as measured by GDP output per hour, has grown by just 4%, according to the OECD. That seems extraordinarily low when you consider the huge advances in technology and communication over that period. Let us put it in context: France had an 8% gain in productivity in the same period, Germany almost 10% and the US more than 10%. This spells trouble for global Britain’s place in the world marketplace, and indeed for building back better.
Why we are lagging behind is a complicated question. I shall focus on the key area of education, to follow up the comments of the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Newcastle. Yes, innovation and productive investment are crucial too, but there is no escaping the fact that if you do not educate and train your workforce sufficiently then productivity will suffer. It is here that, to me, the Budget Statement makes particularly disturbing reading. The Chancellor states, as the noble Lord, Lord Davies, mentioned, that per-pupil funding will return to 2010 levels in real terms by 2024-25. This follows more than a decade of austerity during which schools have suffered an 8% fall in real spending per pupil, so we are talking about 15 years to return to where we were in 2009. Yes, the Chancellor announced £1.8 billion extra for education recovery post pandemic, in addition to the £1.4 billion announced in June, but the total education recovery spend falls well short of the £15 billion that Boris Johnson’s own catch-up tsar, Kevan Collins, said was necessary before resigning from his post.
Perhaps the most striking contrast lies in the different paths for health and education spending. Since 2010, health spending has increased by more than 40%, while education overall will have seen a feeble rise of just 2%. I appreciate the huge health demands brought by an ageing population, the pandemic and the historic underfunding of the NHS, but this is not a balanced approach.
Education is not a short-term fix for productivity, but the longer we fail to invest in and develop the education and training of our workforce for the future, the longer it will take to achieve these badly needed productivity gains that ultimately underpin a higher wage economy. Without real economic growth, we run the risk of fuelling inflation and interest rates, inflicting further damage on living standards.
To give the Government credit where due, they have made some welcome announcements, notably the 7.5% real-term annual increase for business, energy and industry, with the aim of encouraging innovation and boosting investment in R&D. However, the economy faces a period of labour shortages, restricted immigration, very modest growth from 2023 onwards and rising inflation. I suggest that this is not a good environment for business. Add to that stagnant spending on education and the long-term prospects for productivity do not look bright. We need a spending strategy for education, productivity and sustainable real economic growth. Finally, I suggest that levelling up makes little sense without catching up.