(2 months ago)
Lords ChamberAt the Budget, we will set out an assessment of the expected impacts of this policy in the normal way by publishing a tax information and impact note. In this assessment, we will consider, first, the likely pass-through of VAT to school fees. Here, after a cover of VAT on input costs, we expect schools to be liable for VAT of an average of around 15% of their fee income. The Government expect that private schools will take steps to absorb a significant proportion of this VAT liability. Secondly, we will consider the likely elasticity of demand, which will be consistent with the elasticity used by the OBR in the costing of this policy. It is worth noting that, despite a 75% real-terms increase in fees since 2000, the number of children in independent schools has remained steady, which suggests an inelastic demand for private school places.
Should we not all be grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Hacking, who has sent a very thorough report to the Prime Minister, showing the dire consequences that the Government’s education tax will have? Is it not time that the Government realised that their education tax—the first in our history—is likely to force a large number of parents, particularly those using small special needs schools in the independent sector, to move their children next term to state schools which are wholly unprepared for them?
The answer to the noble Lord’s question is no, because the assumptions underlying that report are incorrect. We expect that a large number of private schools will take steps to absorb a significant proportion of this VAT liability, so the majority of that fee will not be passed through.