Economy: Growth

Debate between Lord Kilclooney and Lord Newby

Tuesday 11th February 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, I agree. For example, it is very interesting, looking at what has been happening to unemployment not just over the past few months but over the past couple of decades, that in the 1990s unemployment in Scotland was slightly higher than it was here. In recent years, and particularly in the past few quarters, it has been slightly lower. It shows that Scotland, while moving broadly in line with the UK, can do better than the rest of the UK, as it has done in a number of respects. It is quite difficult to see how it could replicate that pattern if it were independent.

[Lord Kilclooney (CB)]

My Lords, Scotland, like Northern Ireland and Wales, receives an annual block grant. Can the Minister confirm that the block grant to Scotland is now £30 billion per year, and that should Scotland become independent, the people of Scotland would lose that £30 billion?

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, it is not quite as straightforward as that. There are, for example, great arguments about the division of oil revenues. This has to be set against the block grant that Scotland gets. When looking at the economic consequences of independence, you have to look a long time in the future, not just a year or two. Independence is not for Christmas—it is a long-term business. The question for everyone in Scotland is not whether we are going to be better off in six months or a year or five years, but where we are going to be 10, 20 or 50 years down the line, because once you have done this, you cannot reverse it.