Financial Services Bill

Lord Kerr of Kinlochard Excerpts

Tuesday 3rd July 2012 Lords Chamber

We on this side of the House fully understand that a public inquiry may lead to some criticism of the policies adopted by previous Governments, including Governments formed by the party of which I am a member. We will just have to take that on the chin. This matter is too important to allow such issues to be decisive. We must learn from what has happened, and the way to learn is to have the fullest information possible. That is why an independent judicial inquiry is necessary. I beg to move.

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

Given that the noble Lord has explained that the public inquiry he seeks is not an alternative to the Tyrie inquiry, can he confirm that the Opposition will be co-operating in full with the Joint Committee to be set up under Mr Tyrie?

[Lord Eatwell]

I certainly think that Mr Tyrie and the Treasury Committee can and will pursue their activities in their normal way, including perhaps the pursuit of this particular inquiry. As to the future policy of the Opposition on the organisation of that inquiry, we are trying to achieve the best possible outcome. I see the best possible outcome as a three-dimensional one.

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Finally, I will draw a different analogy with the Leveson inquiry from that drawn by the noble Lord, Lord Carlile. The Prime Minister was absolutely right to set it up. I do not think much of most of what he has done, but that was a very positive achievement that will stand to his credit in the historical record. The experience of the last few months has been that a judicial inquiry is able to get to grips with problems in a very sophisticated and substantial industry. The media and communications industry is about as substantial and complex as the financial services industry. No doubt there are lawyers who are making money out of the inquiry, as they would out of any judicial inquiry. However, that is not inhibiting Lord Justice Leveson from doing a good job, or the public from feeling that the job that must be done in relation to the media industry is being done effectively. We want the same kind of credibility with the inquiry into the financial services industry that is obviously necessary.

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

My Lords, like the noble Lord, Lord Neill, I hope that the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, will withdraw his amendment. His three-dimensional answer to my question made it impossible for me to support it, because I fear that he is taking a hostage. The most important thing that must be done is to establish quickly how we can ensure that the fixing of LIBOR cannot happen again. That is the crucial operational thing to do. I agree with those who say that this is an international scandal. I agree that around the world, people know about this. There are plenty of other scandals in the banking system that must be addressed, such as the mis-selling scandal and questions of remuneration and bonuses. There is plenty of time for a study of the culture of the banking and financial services industry. That is important but not urgent. What is urgent is to do something operational now.

I understand from the Prime Minister’s Statement that the Wheatley report will be published this summer. That fits very well with the Tyrie exercise, which will finish this autumn and can establish what happened. It should not go into areas of criminality. What was said by the noble Lord, Lord Carlile of Berriew, was fully justified; I would not go down the special prosecutor route but would follow the advice of the noble Lord, Lord Howard. We need a quick operational inquiry to establish how to make sure that this shocking thing—this poisoning of the water supply that is a scandal around the world—is put right and cannot damage London, and borrowers and lenders, any more.

I will say one further thing to remedy an omission in our discussions, and those of the other place, yesterday. I am confident that Mr Agius is an honourable man. It is a pity that no tribute was paid yesterday to the way in which he immediately accepted responsibility and felt that the buck must stop with him.

I was reminded of the noble Lord, Lord Carrington. Nobody thought he was responsible directly, hands on, and involved in the loss of the Falklands. I do not believe for a moment, and I do not believe that anybody in this Chamber believes, that Marcus Agius was in any way involved in fixing the LIBOR rate, yet he undoubtedly did the right thing, and it is important that that should be put on the record. It makes a striking contrast to the behaviour of some others in public life these days. I advise anyone intrigued by this reference to read a remarkable speech made on Friday on the Steel Bill by the noble Lord, Lord Fowler, referring to another Member of the present Government.

[Baroness Kramer]

My Lords, I want to associate myself with the words we have just heard from the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, on the importance of acting quickly. I speak as someone who has spent most of her career in banking, working with clients on transactions that involve the LIBOR rate and I understand the significance of the issues we have discussed in this House.

As others have said, this is not just a UK issue. The earliest that any inquiry, as proposed by the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, could begin would be the autumn, so we are looking at something like a two-year inquiry. I am not sure that he understands—

Scotland Bill

Lord Kerr of Kinlochard Excerpts

Wednesday 28th March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

My Lords, I do not want to repeat what I said in Committee on this. Although I am sure there is much force in some of the points made by the noble Lord, Lord Lang, they are no doubt points that the Scottish Parliament would have in mind, were it minded to exercise the power that this clause would confer upon it. I do not agree with the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth of Drumlean, that there is some constitutional impropriety. I do not understand his constitutional argument.

The constitutional principle in regard to taxation is that those paying the tax—those on whom it will be levied—should have voted for it. I see no constitutional objection to the Scottish Parliament having the power to levy another tax, given that only Scots or people resident in Scotland will be paying it. As I said before, I see no difficulty about them having the power to vary an existing tax, for example the rate of VAT. I do not see a constitutional principle there. I referred in Committee to the example of differential sales taxes across the United States of America. There are many taxes that are different between states.

I conclude my remarks by saying that I see a lot of sense in the amendment we will come to in a moment, which suggests a procedure and safeguards that could be built into the system, which I could support. I also understand the economic arguments that the noble Lord, Lord Lang, advanced and it is very important that they should be in the minds of the Scottish Parliament when it chooses whether to exercise the power conferred on it here, but I cannot see the constitutional principle. I do not follow the ship money argument.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

It is very straightforward. We are talking about devolution here, not about establishing a federal system. As someone said, although I cannot remember who, power devolved is power retained. The ability to create a completely new tax—a window tax, or whatever—has to reside with the other place down the Corridor. Within our constitution, in order to create a new tax, you have to have a finance Bill. It used to have to be on the Floor of the House of Commons when it came to Committee, and there is a set of procedures that needs to be followed. It is completely different from devolving the power to set a rate of tax, which this Bill purports to do and is the commitment made in the manifesto.

My constitutional problem is that that ability of the House of Commons to discuss, through a long-standing procedure, the imposition of taxation is being undermined because all that it requires now is an Order in Council, which by convention cannot be voted on in this House and cannot be amended. That is no basis upon which to create new taxes on the people. It is the nature of the procedure that is the constitutional outrage as far as I am concerned, not the nature of giving the Scottish Parliament the ability to raise a particular tax.

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[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

I support the amendment in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Browne of Ladyton, for the first and last reasons he gave. Like the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, I very much agree with the last reason, but also the first. I hope that the prediction of the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, is not true. It is unsatisfactory to have these criteria only in a Command Paper. They should be in the Bill, so I very much hope that the prediction is wrong.

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[Lord Sassoon]

No, I am not specifically worried about judicial challenge. I just think that it is reminiscent of debates I am becoming increasingly used to in your Lordships’ House. I am sure many noble Lords are much more familiar than I am with these arguments that regularly come up: if it is so obvious, we do not need to put it in because everybody understands it; or, if it is so clear and everybody accepts it, let us put it in. I have suggested to your Lordships that the criteria, based on the limited discussion that we have had here, are widely accepted. They should be debated if your Lordships want to debate them properly.

We do not have the opportunity here, and have not had it in Committee, to debate the criteria in detail because we have a “take it or leave it” provision to put them in. I believe that the proportionate, appropriate and sensible way forward is to set them out in the first report that we will require, if the House agrees, under Amendment 29. At that point, if your Lordships want it, there could be a specific debate on the criteria.

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

The trouble with that is that it is retrospective. It is about things that have happened and the use that has been made of powers. That is what reports are about. The safeguards in the amendment tabled by the noble Lord, Lord Browne, and in the Command Paper are about affecting the procedure prospectively when the Parliament in Scotland wishes to introduce a new tax and the Government in London are considering an Order in Council. I see a huge difference there, and it would be very good to have these in the Bill. I have not heard a convincing argument against that from the Minister.

[Lord Sassoon]

I believe that the noble Lord, Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, has not quite got the construction right. The report proposed under Amendment 29 will be on the implementation of the Bill. The first report will come forward 12 months after the Bill is passed and will be about implementation matters. One of those implementation matters, which I am making a commitment to include in that report, is around the Command Paper criteria. It will be a report on implementation and will include things that have been done in the period since Royal Assent, which will include confirmation of the criteria. They will then be debated. It will have prospective effect in the sense that it is most unlikely that in that time any new proposals will have come forward for the devolution of further tax powers. Therefore, the debate on the criteria will happen before they take effect when any further proposals for devolved taxes come forward. The noble Lord shakes his head, but in that sense it is looking forward and is entirely consistent with the nature of the report that we envisage. I hope that reassures him on that point.

The second commitment around this issue, which it is important to get on the record, is that the Government are happy to commit to publishing an assessment on any occasion that the power is used. That report will confirm how any order brought forward under the new tax provision meets the criteria. Again, this information will not just be used by the Government in their assessment of the criteria coming forward, but will be wholly transparent to your Lordships’ House and be part of what your Lordships will have available to them to satisfy themselves that the Government are properly considering the criteria when they come to exercise this power and put an order forward.

The information will clearly need to cover all the relevant criteria included in the Command Paper. It will do so in a proportionate level of detail. I repeat for the avoidance of any doubt, by my noble friend in particular, that the Government have already been clear—I have said it this afternoon—that a number of tax proposals from the Scottish Government have already been made without the provision of sufficient evidence and requests have been declined a result.

On Amendment 16, I hope that I have responded to the specific request of the noble Lord, Lord Browne of Ladyton, to come forward with a new and positive proposal, which I hope addresses the substance of his amendment. I respectfully ask him to withdraw it.

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[Lord Robertson of Port Ellen]

My Lords, I was never a Secretary of State for Scotland but I was the shadow Secretary of State for Scotland. I was to be relieved of the great burden of being Secretary of State by being moved to deal with wars, conflicts and troubles between states in the world. I found that an immense relief after nearly four years of looking after the Opposition in Scotland, against the noble Lords, Lord Lang and Lord Forsyth. This is the first time I have dipped my toe into the piranha-filled rivers of Scotland, but I do so because this is a particularly important issue. I hope that my noble friend Lord Barnett, with whom I have had some exchanges over the years on this subject, withdraws the amendment tonight. This is not the time and not the place for looking at this subject.

I was one of those who did not think that we should be having these debates at all, and that the Calman commission should have stayed on a shelf until the great debate that is now taking place in Scotland was completed. This is an ingredient of that debate which, sadly, has not really been debated widely in Scotland at all. My noble friend Lord Elder, who was a member of the Calman commission, perhaps disagrees with me but I do not remember anybody mentioning the Calman report during the last election in Scotland. Ludicrously, when we were all fighting the SNP, nobody mentioned the fact that there was this report which was to give the Scottish Parliament extra powers. Devo-plus was on offer but, strangely enough, nobody mentioned it.

Given that the SNP won the election, against the odds—and against the expectations of the noble and learned Lord, Lord Wallace, and myself, who drew up the electoral scheme in the first place—and got the majority in the Parliament, we needed to reassess at that point what the alternative was to be to the separatism of the SNP. However, we are here. We are where we are, but this is not the right way to go about it. If we are to have a needs-based assessment—and I have been through the same briefings that were involved in this—it has to be one for the whole of the United Kingdom.

I am interested that the noble Lord, Lord Deben—or whatever he is calling himself at the moment; I can see why he wanted to disguise himself in this new iteration, but I just do not remember the name itself—goes on about this great redistribution within the union. It is strange to hear this pure form of redistribution coming from a Conservative ex-Minister.

The issue needs wider debate and that should take place, but not at the moment in the context purely and simply of the Barnett formula and only in relation to Scotland. That is unhelpful at present. In Scotland today we have a bigger debate going on that will determine what sort of country we and future generations are going to live in. We therefore need to be very careful with the language that we use, the facts that we use and how those facts are deployed. Sometimes we fall into the same trap as those on the other side of the argument, the separatists, who manipulate the figures and move them around.

In the last analysis, the discussion will not be about identifiable public expenditure on its own—because if it is then that, unfortunately, is an argument that the nationalists will take to us. Expenditure is only one part of the balance sheet; income is another, and they can make their argument about that. Number-crunching, as I know only too well from many other contexts, can produce the numbers that the statistician wants to produce at the time. Let us have the broader and wider debate within which we will have to consider how the UK’s finances will be managed, but I do not see why, this evening, on the eve of an Easter Recess in an ill attended House, we should start using arguments that may well be used against us.

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

My Lords, I disagree with the noble Lord, “Lord Barnett of Formula”. I have never disagreed with him before. I used to write briefs for him and he never paid the slightest attention to them. He was a brilliant Chief Secretary who did not bother about the arguments but simply explained that there was no money, which was a much better argument than any of the ones that I produced.

I disagree with putting this new clause in the Bill for the reasons that have just been given. I disagree with looking at it in a Scottish-only context. I confess that I had forgotten the report of the committee of the noble Lord, Lord Richard, but I disagree with the kind of criteria that the noble Lord, Lord Lang, was reminding us of. That on its own is not enough. Periphery and distance matter. I do not know of any state that I have lived in—France, America—where distance is not a factor. The purity of the position taken by the noble Lord, Lord Deben, does not really work. If you have an extremely sparse population on highlands and islands, the cost of communications and that sort of thing is much higher. That sort of need may well be built in to the formula that the noble Lord, Lord Richard, is talking about, but it is not just criteria such as poverty: it is the problem of dealing with poverty, which is more difficult if people are on a distant island. I do not know who to give way to first.

[Lord Deben]

As my purity has been called into question, I would like to say that it is a purity that demands that we do something that recognises sparsity and the difficulty of reaching people. The trouble is that this new clause recognises it in Scotland but not in Wales; that is what is wrong with it.

[Baroness Rawlings]

My Lords, I remind your Lordships that on Report a Member may speak only once, excepting for a short question of elucidation to the Minister, as I have said.

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

I understand the noble Lord’s point. My principal argument would be about timing. I do not think that the politics of this in Scotland would play well. Personally, I go with the prediction made by the noble Lord, Lord Steel, about what is likely to happen—perhaps rather more slowly than he suggested, but that is the direction of travel. That direction is not objectionable, but my worry about it is that it does not make sense to wait until after 2014, as he was implicitly accepting, to define what this further devolution of tax-raising power is. I think that one ought to do this in advance. That was my twofold worry about the Prime Minister’s speech in Edinburgh. It is unwise to offer the measure; it is certainly unwise to offer it undefined and suggest that it can be defined only in the light of a referendum result. To me that is the greatest worry about this matter.

Scotland Bill

Lord Kerr of Kinlochard Excerpts

Thursday 15th March 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Steel of Aikwood]

My Lords, I suspect that there is nobody listed in the category in the Bill who does not live in Scotland, but the Minister is right in one respect: it was not always so. My predecessor as MP for Roxburgh, Selkirk and Peebles lived in London—I do not say that critically; that was a fact. He did not come from Scotland but he had a Scottish constituency. He came to visit the constituency dutifully from time to time, but he certainly would not have been regarded as having a close connection with Scotland, nor would he have spent the majority of days in Scotland. So, although I cannot think of anyone who would be excluded by taking this out, as my noble friend Lord Forsyth suggests, it could happen.

It reminds me of a story that Jo Grimond used to tell about coming across one of the knights of the shires at King’s Cross station at the start of the Summer Recess. He was putting his trunk into the guard’s van on the train and he was in a very bad mood. Jo Grimond said to him, “Why are you so upset?”. He said, “It is not the thought that I am going to my constituency; it is the thought that I shall have to go next year as well”. Fortunately those days have gone and I do not think that that would apply now. None the less, it is a reasonable safeguard to have this clause in the Bill.

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

The noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, has drawn attention to a point of principle here. Creating special categories is, by definition, undesirable. It is probably the case that every single person who meets the three categories listed here would qualify as having a close connection under the other tests of what a close connection is. It is very unlikely that any of them would not meet the test of residence and the number of days resident, so why create this special category? I cannot see a practical argument for it but I see an argument of principle against it.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

My Lords, I do not think the Minister made the case for having this in the Bill when he was trying to give an example of someone who might be caught, notwithstanding the reminiscences of former Liberal MPs for Scotland, or whichever party they were from. This does not exist nowadays. If you were an elected Member and there was an idea that you were avoiding Scottish income tax, the practicalities would be death and destruction. The measure is completely unnecessary. As the noble Lord, Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, who was advertised on the annunciator as the noble Lord, Lord Norton of Louth—I say this in case Hansard gets it wrong—said, this is a bad principle.

On the earlier amendment, I referred to there being a real injustice in respect of the armed services and I was arguing for a specific provision for them. My noble friend responded by saying, “We think that the existing tests cover it and therefore I am not going to do it”. I cannot reconcile these two competing bits of logic. If his position is that the criteria provide a clear view as to whether or not you are caught, why single out Members of Parliaments? I suspect its origins can be found back in the debates about the impact of a Scottish income tax and whether Scottish MPs would be caught, and that has been written into the Bill.

The provision is completely unnecessary and I hope that my noble friend will think about taking it out. Apart from anything else, it would reduce the number of column inches of legislation which a Government committed to it would produce. I beg leave to withdraw the amendment.

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[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

My Lords, I follow exactly what the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, is doing but it gets worse and worse. The best answer would be to remove these special categories altogether. Other countries have gone down the road of having special treatment for the public sector nomenklatura and singling it out in legislation. It is not a good road to go down.

[Lord Davidson of Glen Clova]

My Lords, might I also perhaps encourage the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth of Drumlean, to consider the position of judges. One of the great strengths of the United Kingdom is that Scotland has access to the whole Supreme Court, and therefore some of the finest minds and judiciary in the world. All those members of the Supreme Court have responsibilities for Scotland and it would perhaps be unfortunate if all 12 members of the court were to suddenly find themselves subject to the Scottish rate of income tax. I know he is looking for suggestions for his list, but possibly that one should be removed.

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[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, that was not a tax issue, and I do not know the detail of that case, but we are talking about changes to the structure of the UK income tax system, which is something that is done by the UK Government. We are talking about circumstances that are rather far away from a Scottish spending matter that the noble Lord described.

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

I am lost. I fear that I do not understand this no-detriment principle. I may be showing my ignorance coming late to this subject. I thought that I understood the rationale for the Scottish rate: the UK system would remain the same but there would be this variable—take 10 per cent off and top it up. I assume that the allowances, thresholds and system would be the same over the UK. If, for example, a Government believed that more growth could be obtained by going for a lower rate of tax, or higher allowances, and thus lower revenue, that would be the case across the United Kingdom, including in Scotland. The only thing that would move would be the variable rate if the Scots chose to move it. What is this detriment? Are we saying that the Scots could enjoy the advantages of the greater growth in the United Kingdom but that the detriment to their revenue would be compensated through a block grant system? That would be winning twice. That cannot be what is intended. Will the Minister explain how the no-detriment principle works?

[Lord Sassoon]

The noble Lord has explained the construct absolutely correctly, so I have no problem with that at all. However, if the UK Government decide to raise personal allowances to take more people out of tax, that will flow through to a reduction in the receipts to the Scottish Government under the construct that he has described. The UK will compensate the Scottish budget through the block grant for such a reduction of the tax base for Scotland, based on forecasts by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility.

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[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

That is marvellous news. I do not have a house in Scotland now but I need to get up there fast and get a close connection. If, on the Minister’s example, the allowances improve, that will suit me personally, but the Scottish Government and the First Minister will have more cash through compensation to make sure that the services I draw on in Scotland are in no way diminished.

[Lord Sassoon]

I would not want to get the hopes of the noble Lord or anyone else up too high. It will just bring Scotland back to where it was before we started this. It is not that Scotland will gain; it will just make sure that Scotland is brought back to where it was going to be before the change.

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

May I ask the noble Lord about the economic benefits of the change and the reduction in the tax take, and to confirm that it would not suffer a reduction in its tax take?

[Lord Sassoon]

That is correct, and so it should be. If the UK Government decided to rebalance the taxes in some fundamental way, of course it would be wrong to take away the expected income tax take for Scotland that itself is reflected in all the calculations of the block grant. Again, I can attempt to see whether I can put down a worked example to show how the money flows will go, but this is not intended to give Scotland some great bonanza. It is a two-way balancing mechanism to make sure that neither Scotland nor the rest of the UK is disadvantaged by the way in which the effect of personal allowance changes will flow through the system.

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[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

My Lords, I thank the noble Lord for trying to cast light into my ignorance, but it is getting worse; the fog is getting thicker. Does the no-detriment principle have a reciprocal? If not, why not? Should there not be a reciprocal? Let us suppose there was a tax change that widened the tax base. Would that be no detriment just to the Scots, or no detriment to the UK? Before the Minister responds, perhaps I may make a second point. I see two little gleams of light from the lighthouse in the fog. One was the suggestion made by the noble Lord, Lord Browne, that it might be good if one could set out on paper how this is to work. I should have got there long ago, but I had not realised it. That is central to the issue of accountability, but I had not quite got it. I turn now to the noble Lord, Lord Stewartby, for the second light. Since it is so central to the issue of accountability, should it not be on the face of the Bill?

[Lord Sassoon]

First, I shall repeat what I believe I said earlier. This adjustment would go two ways. We have talked about so many things as being a form of one-way traffic this afternoon, but that is not the case. However, we want to make sure that the Scottish Government are accountable for what they are responsible for under the construct in this Bill, which is the effects of their powers to set a Scottish rate of income tax. They are not accountable either for a windfall gain or a windfall loss—if you can have a windfall loss—resulting from things that are done by the UK Government subsequent to the setting of the block grant adjustment. If we set out a worked example of how this will operate, I would like to think that it will be made clearer.

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[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

My position is diametrically opposed to that of the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, on the general power. I agree with him that it would be good not to have the accountability element so heavily dependent simply on the extra tranche of income tax. However, it is up to the Scots to decide how or if they wish to move further, and on which taxes. The general power seems wholly reasonable, and for us to pick and choose air passengers or whatever seems a rather bad idea.

Mine is not a complete laissez-faire position. As I said in my debate with the noble Lord, Lord Sewel, on a previous day in Committee, a counterpart to a general power is a mechanism for neutralising the macroeconomic effect. You would be very rash to start to recreate the situation that we have seen in the eurozone with Greece and Germany. That is why I am very nervous about having devo-max or devo-plus, unless and until the monetary or borrowing consequences of greater fiscal autonomy are spelt out. When we come to the borrowing bit of the Bill, I will have something to say.

I do not know what the right rate is for air passenger duty, and I consider it irrelevant to the debate on the Bill. I doubt very much that Mr Salmond, with his green credentials, would follow the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, in thinking that a lower rate would be the right one. There are many taxes other than this one that he might prefer to lower. But it is up to them, following the procedure that would require consultation with us. The lead should come from them.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

The noble Lord says that it is up to them. They want this power and Calman recommended it, and it is not in the Bill because the Government have not included it, even though they have been telling us that the Bill will implement the Calman recommendations. The legislative consent Motion that was considered by the committee of the Scottish Parliament specifically requests that it should be a condition of Scottish consent to the Bill that the air passenger tax should be included.

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

As always, the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, follows precisely the recommendations of the Scottish Parliament committee.

[Lord Kilclooney]

When discussing what should happen with Scotland, we should always also take into account not just England but Wales and Northern Ireland. In Scotland at the moment, as I understand it, there is already a variation in air passenger duty. Quite a few of the airports in the islands are already excluded, so the idea of having a different air passenger duty in Scotland is, in principle, accepted. If the power was devolved to a Scottish Parliament, would that lead to a reduction in the block grant to the Scottish Exchequer from the central Exchequer? Is there not something of a contradiction in government policy on the issue of air passenger duty, in that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland is already recommending that air passenger duty should be transferred to the Stormont Executive?

Sovereign Credit Ratings: EUC Report

Lord Kerr of Kinlochard Excerpts

Tuesday 15th November 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

I will not follow the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, into his trenchant criticism because most of it seems to apply to the role of the credit rating agencies in respect to private issuers; I will stick to the sovereign risk role which is discussed in the admirable report from the committee chaired by the noble Lord, Lord Harrison. I was a member of his committee and he has presented our report clearly. I have virtually nothing to add on the substance.

I do not believe that the credit rating agencies performed very well in the nine or 10 years leading up to the financial crisis. It is very odd that Ireland stayed on an AAA rating from 1999 to 2009—an extraordinary rating—and it is pretty odd that Greece was left by Moody’s unchanged from 2003 to 2009 and then shot down nine notches in under a year and a half.

One of the minor elements in the Commission package of proposals announced today may be quite useful: the idea that there should be more frequent reviews. It suggests six months, which might be worth considering. Most of the other bits in today’s package that seem to be good are the omissions from the rumours of what would be in the package. I do not at all agree with the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, that it would have been a good idea that the Commission should, as it floated in the summer, put forward the idea of an EU-sponsored, public-sector-paid-for, CRA. That would be a very bad idea for the reasons that the noble Lord, Lord Harrison, has explained. As our report points out, it would be assumed in the markets that,

“EU governments … would have undue influence over its decisions”.

I am puzzled about the present situation of the other very bad idea—it was not floated before we wrote this report, and therefore is not in this report—of the ban on credit ratings, and the power of ESMA to impose temporary exceptional bans. That seems to me to be a rotten idea for a lot of reasons, particularly the one given by the noble Lady, Baroness Noakes, and the noble Lord, Lord Vallance. The moment a credit rating agency signalled that it was under a ban—and it would have to do so, so that the market was not misled into thinking that the previous rating was its considered judgment as of that day and in future—the market would at once react severely, with a panic sell-off of the relevant sovereign debt.

I am very glad to know how the Minister rates these strange events in Brussels today. It looks as if there was a debate in the Commission, and Commissioner Barnier did not win. The text that it has put out today, which explains the draft directive and the draft regulation, says that ESMA will be granted the power to ban sovereign ratings, although such bans would be temporary, exceptional, and subject to strict conditions. In the press release, Monsieur Barnier says,

“The possible suspension of sovereign ratings is a complex issue which … merits further consideration”.

I disagree. It is straightforward, it is black and white, and it is a rotten idea. I hope that the postponement is sine die, and that the Minister may be able to throw some light on that.

There is, in a way, a philosophical problem here. It has been inherent in a lot of things in the European Union since the beginning. Monsieur Barnier says today in his press release that, ratings,

“are not just simple opinions”.

Oh yes they are. That is exactly what they are. We say in our report that investors should not rely on them,

“as an authoritative indicator of creditworthiness, but view them as opinions … to be balanced and confirmed by other market indicators”.

We say caveat emptor should rule. That is because we believe in markets. You could caricature the Barnier philosophy as Colbertian. Ours you could perhaps overwrite as Adam Smith. On one side we have a dirigiste philosophy, and on the other we have the invisible hand. That debate has existed on a lot of much more important matters than this one, and on the whole it is going the right way. The arrival of the Scandinavians and the eastern Europeans has meant that the Colbertians are definitely a minority in the European Union now. I hope the postponement of the idea of suspension means that this issue is also going the right way. The press reports that in the debate in the Commission the British and Swedish commissioners were arguing against the proposal, and that seems plausible. Possibly the debate in the Commission is going the right way because of the admirable report produced by the noble Lord, Lord Harrison. Let us say it could certainly be a factor.

I have a little time left and I want to use the rest of it to raise a slightly wider issue. In the financial crisis and the subsequent lessons-learnt exercises such as the G20, there was general agreement on the need for changes in financial regulation. For EU members, that means changes in EU regulation. I say to the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, that the Commission is doing its job when it produces drafts. The one produced today is minor, peripheral and not very important. Some of them are very important indeed. Some of them are very silly. In my view, the Tobin tax proposal is very silly and likely to fail for that reason. Some of them are a bit Colbertian and need to be exposed to a good Adam Smith critique, but they are not cooked up on a whim.

This country was part of the international consensus on the need for changes and the Government in whom the noble Lord, Lord Myners, played such a key role was part of that consensus. I say to the noble Lord, Lord Myners, that Michel Barnier is a serious politician who had a long career as an elected politician in France and has had previous successful terms as a commissioner. We should not regard Barnier as a figure of fun. He is not a figure of fun. Nor should we regard some of these regulations as daggers aimed at the heart of London. They are not an anti-British conspiracy. Of course, since they are about financial regulation and the London market is the biggest and most important European market, they are particularly relevant to London.

It is very important that this country plays a central part in the legislative process, making sure that the voice of Adam Smith is properly heard. That might not happen if we were to come to be seen as unconstructive and to describe ourselves as sceptics; if we were seen to be hectoring and unsympathetic in the current debate about the eurozone; if we were showing that we were unaware of what the German constitutional court says, or even what the treaties say; if we were seen to be criticising our partners for prevarication and pusillanimity and delay. They are dealing with a very serious problem. Remember the parable of the bacon and eggs. The 17 eurozone members are the pigs; the 10 non-eurozone members are the hens. Our contribution might be quite useful; theirs is a matter of life and death. This is their currency we are talking about. If, unlike some of the other 10 non-members, we are absolutely determined not to provide any eggs, perhaps we would do well not to cluck quite so much. Perhaps a period of silence, as a great Prime Minister once said, might be called for.

Diplomacy often consists of getting someone else to put forward our ideas as his. He cannot do that if we have already shouted about them aggressively in public, and he will not want to do it if we have previously lambasted him for not acting on them already. I do not expect the Minister to respond to these thoughts but I hope he will take them back with him as he wends his weary way back to Great George Street, where I used to work, and make my successors think about them.