Economic Productivity

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 5th December 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I completely agree with my noble friend on that point. Measuring public sector productivity is very difficult and contradictory measures are involved. My noble friend is right that, obviously, our priority is improving those public services and we will continue to do so.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, in the 1970s, we attracted enormous increases in productivity by also attracting vast quantities of Japanese inward investment, which saved our motor industry. Now, unfortunately, our motor industry needs saving again. Could we concentrate on attracting FDI by having the kind of Budget that really makes international investors keen to invest here on a scale much larger than anything that has come before?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

The noble Lord is absolutely correct to say that investment is one of the key drivers in raising productivity. Obviously, it was a matter of regret that, under the previous Government, the UK was the only G7 country with levels of private sector investment below 20% of GDP. We are absolutely determined to raise that: the recent international investment summit saw £64 billion of investment come into the UK, creating some 40,000 jobs. We are determined to continue that trend.

Autumn Budget 2024

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Monday 11th November 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, like others, I welcome the maiden speech of my noble friend Lord Booth-Smith. It had the additional quality of supreme brevity, which is always welcome in these debates. I had hoped for a moment that we were going to get some extra titbits of life in Downing Street and his role as strategic director, but all we got was common sense. I recommend that he continues with common sense and leaves Downing Street out of it as far as possible.

You would not really sense from this relatively civilised debate that in fact this is a time of enormous danger, for the whole world and for us here. I do not mean danger just of an economic kind but of a physical kind. There is a real threat hanging over the world, vastly amplified by the silicon chip, which has altered and recreated almost every aspect of the modern world. Indeed, some would say that it is the chip and hyperconnectivity that are the major cause of the current tensions, instabilities, violence and evident collapse of the international rule of law.

Some of the most serious minds in today’s world—philosophers and others—tell us that we are on the edge of a precipice, that humankind is looking into the abyss, and many other terms of doom and gloom. This has duly fed through, via a cacophony of populist influences, to the forming of a vast new nexus in world finance, trade and investment, and spending and taxation, which completely changes the axis of political debate and economic policy priorities. That is what we are discussing now: whether this Budget and the thinking behind it responds to and picks up these new, rather frightening realities.

At the centre of it all is the need for a truly enormous increase in investment—both public and private—around the world, and certainly here, while remembering that when it comes to Governments trying to boost investment one needs to recall, as I fear some Ministers do not seem to, that the British economy, like a lot of advanced democratic economies, overwhelmingly, at some 99.2%, consists of small and medium enterprises. If you try to kill them off then the whole economic evolutionary process comes to a sickening halt and withers away. It may be said that small businesses rely on big business, but it is the other way round as well. The big businesses of tomorrow are somewhere in that smaller and medium-sized pattern and its source of innovation. If they are poisoned then the whole of our economic progress is brought to a halt.

This new scene has key components, which I will list not in any order but quickly in my last few minutes. First, the state has most of the infrastructure demands and the private sector has most of the money, so it is perfectly obvious that new ways have to be found for the state and private capital to work together. That is a sort of evolution of what we had at the end of the last century, with the private finance initiative—it failed, but it was the right idea.

Secondly, we need to attract a far bigger flow of foreign direct investment, not least to help with the energy transition which we are embarking on. Thirdly, the sovereign wealth funds long to invest but cannot find the right investment vehicles here in the UK. I declare an interest in that I advise one of them, and I know that that is exactly the position they face at meeting after meeting. Fourthly, there are the pension funds and insurance funds, said to be more than £2.5 trillion, from which the Chancellor says she is seeking to tap surpluses and encourage bolder equity investment. Some 20 years ago, 53% of those enormous funds used to go into the UK and now it is 6%; obviously, that has got to change.

Fifthly, we must greatly widen our own domestic sources of share capital and asset ownership in a way that, crucially, spreads the benefits of capital growth far more than at present to millions of households to enhance their dignity and security. I think that is the next stage in the development of popular liberal capitalism, which we do not seem to be addressing as vigorously as we should. There is certainly not much in the Budget for it.

Finally, there is the overdominance of our national investment allocation and strategy, which must be shifted away from the Treasury. This would not be very popular, certainly not with the Treasury, but it was recommended in the report by the noble Lord, Lord Maude—an excellent document—and in the Harrington report, and by some of us for the last 50 years. Until there is a key shift at the very centre of the government machine, nothing will go quite right on the investment front.

I see all this as common ground for the future. The party to realise that these are the new priorities will be the winner if it gets there first.

Spring Budget 2024

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Monday 18th March 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, I am delighted to have the chance to follow that excellent maiden speech by my noble friend Lord Kempsell. He is absolutely right about the secret—I think he called it the lacuna—at the heart of government, which many commentators overlook. Promoting grand new programmes and promising this, that and the other is pretty easy; you can get very imaginative about future spending, particularly in the speech- writing department. But the harsh implementation—the actual details of getting these programmes through and evaluating whether they are getting anywhere near achieving the objectives one starts out with with such high hopes—is quite another thing.

I cannot remember whether it was von Moltke or von Clausewitz who said that the best-laid strategy never survives the first encounter with the enemy. There is so much talk about long-term strategy, but events, as Mr Macmillan long ago reminded us, tend to intervene, especially in a populist age when the Government are pressed every day, in this Chamber and the other place, to do more and more, yet have less and less control to be able to do so. These are the dilemmas of our times and I greatly look forward to hearing my noble friend’s counsels, based on his experience, on these numerous problems.

Turning to the Budget, the popular cry—and it is correct—is that we need more investment. What does the Budget do, what is the thinking surrounding it, and what steps are planned in changes in central Government to reinforce long-term public, private and public/private investment in the infrastructure of this nation, which gives it the strength and the momentum to go forward?

What encouragement for UK pension and insurance funds is there in the Budget or in government thinking? The Government may be a bit short of funds; they thought they were short of funds in 2010 and that there was no more money, but outside government there is a great deal of money. Pension and insurance funds have trillions ready to invest, and so do the sovereign wealth funds of other countries. I declare an interest as I advise one of the biggest. Of course, every time it comes to discussing where to invest, the need is to find investible projects. It is no use talking vaguely about long-term investment and social benefits; they are important and cost money, but when it comes to a return, what the private investor wants are investible projects—no white elephants or Sizewell C nuclear power stations, which I am disappointed to see is being planned. What are needed are clever arrangements with government backing on the public sector borrowing side as well as the private sector side. We have been halfway there, with the private finance initiatives of 20 and 30 years ago—they had a bad side but also some very good ones. This is where new creative thinking will be needed, under whatever Government, in the next few years.

Secondly, and following that, there is no hope of getting real momentum in our long-term investment structure, wherever the finance comes from, until the centre-of-government mess we have in this country is cleared up. We need to see the creation of a new office for management of the Budget reinforcing the Prime Minister’s cross-cutting control of major projects, as my noble friend Lord Maude recommended in his excellent report, which has not been evaluated and discussed nearly enough. It reflects very long-standing Conservative thinking; some of us were urging half a century ago that this is a necessary stage to get the whole of government infrastructure investment moving.

My noble friend Lord Maude’s recommendation was that:

“A new Office of Budget and Management (OBM) should be created. This would include HM Treasury’s current responsibilities for the allocation and control of public expenditure, together with the centres of the major cross-cutting functions—financial management, commercial procurement, digital, project delivery, human resources”.


I say “Hear, hear!” to that, as I have for decades. We will not get the infrastructure investment needed and real momentum behind it until that split in the Treasury is made and the Prime Minister’s strategic position is greatly reinforced.

Thirdly, what about the Chancellor’s growing commitments, which I listened to and greatly welcome, to increased retail investment in the financial sector, as well as investment from pensions and so on; for every family in the land to be shareholders; for wider ownership of all kinds; for shared community ownership, as is being developed in many other countries but not fast enough here; and for employee share ownership, which is widespread in the United States? The noble Lord, Lord Macpherson, mentioned the NatWest sale. I hope that is an opportunity for imaginative schemes to be developed. I think we will hear about just one of them later on from the noble Lord, Lord Lee of Trafford, which might help greatly.

Finally, economists all talk about raising productivity and ideas abound on how this should be done. There is one quite simple answer that gets overlooked: to encourage ourselves to be a nation that is highly attractive, even more than we do, for foreign direct investment. It has not been too bad but is not as powerful as it should be. I ask my noble friend: have we learned from the success of 1970 to 1990 in attracting an enormous wave of Japanese inward investment, which had the direct effect of increasing productivity? New machinery came in but, better than that, the old restrictive practices then being pushed much too hard by the trade unions were thrown out. The Japanese refused to work with those. Our car industry was rescued from its poor state, and from the last attentions of Mr Benn and others, and transformed. Our electronic industries were transformed and a lot of new investment was brought to the Welsh valleys.

These are the areas where the new momentum is now required. My noble friend Lord Harrington’s excellent report makes some very useful recommendations on how to do it. They all point in the same direction of a much more powerful push at the centre than we have had in the past.

We need to become a financially literate nation—a nation that understands that investment means savings, which means organising those savings and drawing on them in a way that attracts in a steady stream. If we can get investment up, the benefits of it must be far more widely shared. Politicians mouth the phrase that capitalism must work for everyone; well, it clearly does not. It must be made to work for everyone and it can, in contrast to the distorted state capitalisms of Asia, such as the Chinese state capitalism, or the mafia gangster capitalism of Moscow.

We need to hear a lot more from the Conservative Government we have now, although I would hope to hear it from all parties and all Governments in this post-socialist age, about sharing the benefits of asset growth and investment for the people. That is the path we should be on, and I believe we should concentrate on it with much more vigour, whoever is in charge politically at Westminster, than we have in the last 50 years.

Pension Investments

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 23rd January 2024 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)]

I am not aware of the detail of the amendment to that Bill tabled by the Labour Party, but we are taking a very measured approach to market intervention. It is clear to me that we need to do this and, as I said previously, it is evolution not revolution. However, there are many ways in which the Government are focusing on UK high-growth companies in particular. I point the noble Lord to LIFTS, or long-term investment for technology and science—investment vehicles tailored to direct contribution schemes. The Government will coinvest in or support those schemes up to £250 million. The bids have already been submitted, and we expect those funds to be operational and investing in UK growth companies by mid-2024.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

Does my noble friend agree that, whatever the pension funds invest in—and we certainly need them to get back to the 40% they once put into Britain, rather than today’s 4%—and wherever they put their money, they are not going to be attracted by very long-term, politically high-risk projects which turn out not to be an investment at all? Is that not a reason why we should encourage giving priority, in our nuclear recovery, to smaller, quick-build machines, rather than sinking all our money into very long-term large structures which may not work even when they are built?

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)]

My noble friend makes the very important point that investment is always about diversification. We need a wide range of projects and vehicles to encourage the UK economy, and some of those may indeed be of the sort he refers to.

Autumn Statement 2023

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 29th November 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, I, too, welcome my noble friend’s arrival at the Treasury, in which, a long time ago, I served as an official. I shall try to find something nice to say about the Treasury, although frankly, it is not terribly easy. I told my noble friend before this debate that I hoped to touch on three questions, and she mentioned them in her excellent opening survey of the scene which we all heard a moment ago.

The first is about the overall policy in dealing with the inflation headline, the rate of inflation and the prospects. It is a sort of mantra of the Treasury, the Bank of England and lots of experts that all cuts in taxation are inflationary: you cannot cut taxation at this delicate and fragile time without raising the rate of inflation. I am not so sure about that. I got a very interesting note from the Library—of course, these figures must be treated with caution—which pointed out that about 28% of total public expenditure, which is about £340 billion, is indexed. In other words, it goes up when the inflation rate goes up and then comes down. That is out of a total of £1,222 billion. So presumably if we can get headline inflation down by one point, straightaway we will save £3.7 billion to £4 billion; by two points, £8 billion, and so on. It is a lot of money.

One therefore asks whether there are some areas where retail taxes being reduced can have an impact on headline inflation? If they can, then you are losing revenue, but you are also saving expenditure on a very large scale. I sometimes wonder whether the Treasury has worked out some of these things. The figures are very big indeed.

That is quite distinct from the other indexing point, of course, which is that higher interest rates immediately raise the amount that the Government have to pay in debt payments for their borrowings. These were running at £116 billion a year. I think they have come down a little, but it would be interesting to know, if my noble friend can provide the figures, what a one-point interest rate fall involves in reducing public expenditure. There is a sort of swings-and-roundabout element here that we do not hear very much about. I hope that my noble friend will talk a little more about it.

The cost of debt servicing is 5.2% of total public expenditure, which is a lot. That is 3.8% of GDP, so any increase in interest rates, which the Bank of England firmly says is to cut inflation, has a big inflationary element built into it as well. These things are not straightforward. Does the Bank of England take this into account? We never hear any statement of the kind that recognises that raising interest rates, which is said to be the necessary medicine for curbing inflation, has a huge inflationary punch in it. I have been given a figure that indicates that every 1% on the inflation rate and every 1% on interest rates costs the Treasury £26 billion. That is inflation, not deflation. These are very complex matters that tend to be pushed out of the debate.

Long ago, in the time of Ted Heath, he used to get very annoyed because he felt that the Bank of England and the Treasury were playing a “one-golf club game”. All they had in their golf bag was this one club which said, “Push up interest rates and push down all forms of government expenditure and that will somehow solve the inflation problem”. It does not work out quite that way. These things are not straightforward, so anything more on that would be very helpful.

My second point is that it is rather curious that missing from the Autumn Statement and the Green Book, which we have all been given, is a rather serious item. The Green Book says that the Government are focusing on five important areas, including education, rewarding hard work—we all want that—backing British business, world-class education, building domestic and sustainable energy, and other desirable aims. That is all very nice, but one enormous thing is missing. This is where our history gets a little distorted. In the Thatcher times, it was said that Mrs Thatcher and Geoffrey Howe were very keen on balancing the budget, and certainly Geoffrey Howe—my dear friend and a wonderful man—ran a very tight ship. However, that was not our priority. Our priority was trying to restore the balance in an unbalanced economy, which was grossly overweighted on the state side. Most of our giant industries were nationalised. Half of British industry was in the state sector, and we wished to pull the pendulum back to the middle and get a better balance between the state and the private sector. To that end, we concentrated on enormous efforts that had considerable success. We succeeded in rebalancing the economy in a less socialised way. We still wanted an efficient state sector of course, as the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, said we must have; but we did not want a greedy public sector. That was the danger right from the start: that we were being sunk again and again by a huge, overexpanded and constantly growing public sector. The mechanism for bringing that down is a very important part of the story and, at the moment, it does not appear to be there.

Thirdly, my noble friend Lord Maude is reported to be advocating that, in order to get a tougher approach on public spending, we should split the Treasury between its various functions of being a bureau of the Budget and the ministry of economics. I would be interested to hear the Government’s view on that proposition, particularly as, if we are talking about public sector capital investment, that is always the orphan. If the investment comes from the public sector, it tends to be a leftover from current pressures and political demands on the budget. That is why a great deal of the infrastructure needed in this country is going to have to come from the private sector.

That was the third matter. I have a fourth one, in my last few seconds. Please can we pay serious attention to more democratic capitalism—that is, wider share ownership and wider involvement by everybody, rather than just the few, in the growth of assets? This is not a good advertisement for capitalism. Capitalism does work but it works best of all when it is democratised, even socialised. I note that the Chancellor is trying to expand people’s involvement in the stock market and asset ownership; we need a lot more of that. Can I have a comment from the Minister on that as well?

Alternative Investment Fund Managers Regulations 2013

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Monday 13th November 2023 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Penn (Con)]

My Lords, some of the issues that the noble Lord sets out are why it is important to take forward the programme of reform in a measured way that takes into account the interests of all involved in the sector, whether industry or consumers, and makes sure that we have proper consultation in everything that we do.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, I think the bottom line of this Question is how to get trillions invested in our pension industries back into British enterprise and investment again. At one stage this was considerable, at about 60%, and it is now down to 40%. Is this not a matter of prime urgency in getting the economy really moving again? Can my noble friend outline the key steps she thinks should be taken, or are being taken, to get our pensions trillions back into British industry in a massive way?

[Baroness Penn (Con)]

My noble friend is absolutely right about ensuring that pension funds are invested in the future of British industry. In fact, this was the theme of my right honourable friend the Chancellor’s Mansion House speech this year. He set out a number of reforms that the Government are taking forward to support this. There was rapid consultation on a number of those areas, and we expect further updates at the Autumn Statement.

Bank of England: Interest Rate Policy

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 12th July 2023 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Penn (Con)]

The Bank of England is accountable to both the Government and Parliament. The noble Baroness referred to a report being done by the Economic Affairs Committee in this House. I am sure we will pay close attention to the outcomes of that.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

Has it occurred to my noble friend’s Treasury colleagues that the stream of increases in Bank of England interest rates is both deflationary, obviously, and inflationary, in that every 1% increase in the interest rate adds between £15 billion and £20 billion to government debt servicing? Also, since the Government have up to £30 billion or £50 billion per increase in the RPI level, any impact of these interest rate increases on RPI further increases government spending. We really are looking at a double-edged sword. Other, more direct measures are obviously needed to reduce RPI, the pressure for pay demands and all sorts of other inflationary effects.

[Baroness Penn (Con)]

While I will not be tempted by my noble friend to comment on the conduct of monetary policy, I agree that, in the context of high inflation, fiscal responsibility and keeping government borrowing under control are absolutely essential. That is why the Government are committed to that.

UK Economy: Growth, Inflation and Productivity

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 29th June 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, we heard just now a very authoritative speech by my noble friend Lord Lamont about inflation, which, obviously, is much too high and is a real disease. I think personally that it will take more than one weapon—monetary policy from the Bank of England, right or wrong—to curb the present inflation. Falling global energy prices, as oil and gas are falling fast, will obviously help.

I will concentrate on something slightly different which is mentioned in the Motion and in the speech made by the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell: namely, the productivity puzzle. To my mind, the answer to it is rather simpler than some of the economists and experts would have us believe. Productivity comes from capital investment in machinery and technology. Louis Kelso, the pioneer of thinking in this area, 60 years ago destroyed the Marxian theory of labour value, making it completely redundant. However, he rightly pointed out that, although productivity and rewards come from capital and machinery, the rewards should go much more to workers and wage earners than they have and do now. That is a major problem we should all be facing.

I know the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, rightly emphasised the investment element, but, with respect, he was looking slightly in the wrong direction. The state can obviously help and underpin, but it is pretty well short of money. Every state is short of money now. The famous phrase,

“I’m afraid there is no money”

came through to us 12 or 13 years ago, and it is not very different now. There is a shortage of state money for various obvious reasons we can talk about; they have heavy political context.

In our case, we should be thinking more about foreign investment funds and the way in which we can reattract those in a way we are not doing now. In the 1970s and 1980s, we achieved huge Japanese investment from the world’s second largest industrial power, as it was then; it is now third. That had a very definite effect on boosting productivity, not least because the Japanese insisted on firmly ending many of the trade union restrictive and demarcation practices which were holding back productivity drastically. In their new plants, they said, “We’re simply not going to have it. We must talk with one union leader, not dozens”, and they sorted all that out. We backed up that growing relationship with all sorts of innovative linkages, including the UK-Japan 20th century group, which our colleague Richard Needham persuaded Mrs Thatcher and Yasuhiro Nakasone to set up. I had the privilege of chairing it for 10 years, and that certainly helped the mood.

Japanese interest tailed off a bit after that as we entered this century, and it tailed off further after 2010 with the Cameron-Osborne pivot to China. The Japanese were enormously upset; there were almost tearful occasions when they felt that they had been virtually betrayed. That was bad enough but, when we got to Brexit, Japanese interest disappeared almost entirely. They simply could not understand why we had made that decision. They had invested here because it was a launching place to Europe but now suddenly we were going in the opposite direction.

Now, however, Japanese interest is returning. One example of that is the colossal defence project, the Tempest combat fighter, which I see helpfully promoted in advertisements in Westminster Underground station. With that come all sorts of Japanese links and ideas, developing a new relationship. Incidentally, I should declare an interest that I advise two large Japanese firms, Mitsubishi Electric and the Central Japan Railway Company, which runs the best and fastest Shinkansen system in the world.

I ask the Minister what we are doing to deepen relationships with Japan in an innovative way. They go well beyond trade links and beyond even investment incentives. Japan is our best friend in Asia, and Asia is where all the growth is going to be in the next 30 years. We need to be in on that, and Japan is going to be a great help.

How did we get that relationship in the first place? It was always claimed that the huge investment by Sony at Bridgend, which really started the flood of Japanese investment that came in in the 1970s and 1980s, was because Akio Marita had a son at Swansea University. Small things lead to big things. That is an example of all sorts of links, and universities are a part of that.

There is no scarcity of resources outside in the world. With respect, the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, was looking in the wrong direction. There are billions, indeed trillions, waiting to invest in sovereign funds, pension funds and especially electricity infrastructure. That is the fact that we should now be dealing with.

There are many lessons to be learned from attracting FDI—or not attracting it now. When it returns, productivity will rise again. When other policies across the whole spectrum are regeared to attract FDI—from safe sources, of course—productivity will rise again, real wages will rise, trade deficits will shrink and real growth will resume, but not before we act in the ways that I have indicated.

Budget Statement

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 16th March 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, it is a pleasure to follow my noble friend Lord Willetts. Like him, I was pleased to hear the maiden speech of the noble Baroness, Lady Moyo. I confess that I am a fan of her books. They move us on from the patronising terms surrounding so-called overseas aid and assistance to the words we should of course use nowadays of “partnership and mutual development co-operation”, and nothing less than that. In fact, a lot of the wording in the whole area of development and the so-called developing world is a leftover from the last century and the original thinking about overseas aid and development from Walt Rostow and the American pioneers and others immediately post the Second World War and in the 1950s.

Effective co-operation and sustaining of links of all kinds in a constant and friendly manner, and with deep mutual respect, with all the countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America, is now the task of every Whitehall department, especially but not only the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. That is why I think it was an error to have had a separate department for overseas development; I know that many do not agree with that, but it is my opinion. Even now, allied with the old FCO, the DfID element is inclined to silo thinking. My own view is that it would probably be best structured along the lines of the Japanese model, through a powerful agency with entrée to every department, or from the Cabinet Office or indeed No. 10 directly. I notice that in the new integrated review refresh, which was published a day or two ago, they say that the Minister should automatically have a seat on the National Security Council, which I suppose half-recognises what I am saying.

Make no mistake: this is no sideshow. This is national strategy of the most intense kind, which will allow us to determine our prosperity and security. As the Chinese and Russians advance their colonisation of the developing world, this leads us to completely new thinking about our friends and networks, and how we use our resources to help them, and it brings forward the Commonwealth network, in particular, in a completely new light. That is a message which I think the new integrated review has not quite grasped.

Coming to the Budget itself, the most notable thing about yesterday’s Budget and indeed the surrounding context in which it was delivered was how many sources and authorities have been so spectacularly wrong about the inflation rate, its real causes and the course it is taking. There is the good old Bank of England: hopelessly wrong initially about how and when it would rise—they got it a year out of date—giving a wild underestimate of the pace at which it would accelerate, and wrong, I suspect, about the pace at which it now comes down. Then there were Goldman Sachs economists going on last August about 18% to 22% inflation in 2023—miles out and really quite silly. Then there were the eager monetarist theorists, determined to prove that it was all domestically caused, ignoring the real causes from the energy side. They said it was mostly caused by quantitative easing, which I agree may have played a part, but not the main part, and all demanded higher interest rates to defeat it. And there were armies of both commentators and high officials telling us that high inflation was here to stay, that recession was inevitable and was the only answer. Now, of course, they are all busily revising their inflation figures for the second half of this year.

One can laugh a little, but the damage has been done. These inaccuracies were not harmless. On the contrary, they caused great harm in two respects. First, they led to wrong remedies being applied then, because the real sources of inflation were not understood or were ignored. It was a very different kind of inflation from that which we have dealt with in the past. Secondly, because they sounded unnecessary alarm bells, they gave militant union leaders great opportunities to set their members marching and revive outdated class war rhetoric—an opportunity which Mick Lynch and his like have eagerly seized—and frightened millions of people about even bigger real wage cuts than they are facing already. No one seemed willing to face the obvious: that the sources were overwhelmingly external and lay in soaring gas and oil prices, both long before and during the Ukraine invasion and Russian obduracy. No one seemed to concentrate on the obvious central solution, which was, and still is, short-term world production of more gas and oil.

I admit that it is always difficult for Governments and officials to say that they have been blown off course by foreign factors. Jim Callaghan, who in my view was one of our best Prime Ministers, tried that, and I agree that we on the Tory side gave him no mercy and allowed no excuses. However, being predictably blamed by the Opposition—that is their role and they will always do it—was and is no excuse for not appreciating and tackling the real root causes of our problems, or for failing to realise that in oil and gas markets, and indeed in energy markets worldwide, what goes up always comes down quickly, whatever the circumstances, and always has, in past oil shocks and in this one too. I remind the House that I was very involved in some of the oil shocks of the last century.

The adjustment to the Russian cut-off and the nastiness since its lawless invasion was bound to be initially painful but has more or less been corrected with full storage tanks—for those who have storage—throughout Europe, plenty of shale gas in America, careful conservation and now the prospect of much more production from all sorts of places around the world. Indeed, the OPEC leaders, after initially being thoroughly unhelpful to consumer nations in the West, are now planning to expand future oil and gas investment unchecked.

The background of global energy transition is of course in the wings all the time, with a steady but very gradual long-term decline in world fossil-fuel demand. However, only fools imagine that we can take undertake the greatest shift in the pattern of world industry of all time in just a few years when it is bound to take decades, and when getting supply out of sync with world demand—incidentally, fossil fuels are still 82% of all energy needs, not just power—guarantees massive volatility, major suffering and political upheaval and reaction, as we have now in this country and in many others.

The missing piece in our national recovery strategy, in both the inflation fight and in our budgetary calculations all along, has been, first, the external side—the role of foreign policy and not enough clever diplomacy in diffusing these vast external measures—and, secondly, the absolute failure to convey into the public mind and debate the acute and continuing seriousness of the situation that we and all like-minded countries now face. Instead of trying to fight every individual grievance and demand, what has been missing overall is a sober and informed reminder of the fact that everyone, for the moment, will have to face hardship. It is the timing of all these widespread demands for real wage repair that is so miserable and unfortunate. Speech after speech, including, I am afraid, from some in this Chamber, demand more for this and more for that, yet this is a time when we have to prepare for more resource to go on what we have already.

If that sounds gloomy, it is, because it is the reality. It is not quite 1940 and we are certainly not under direct attack, but we are, equally certainly, on the edge of a major war, with a mad—actually perhaps he is not mad, but certainly threatening—Putin in Moscow talking about nuclear use against us, and with us still in the recovery ward after the largest pandemic in world history, which it was by far in population terms, and from the impact of the Ukraine horror itself, including a substantial rundown of our entire armoury to help the gallant Ukrainians. There is no end in sight for that, and an invasion of Taiwan is likely just ahead on the horizon. In essence, we are on a war footing, as the noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, has repeatedly warned this House.

In these circumstances, the message should simply have been that, while inflation is coming down as fast as it went up, there has to be a timeframe for recovery. It should have been clearly and repeatedly explained that, in due course, much better pay for nurses is entirely desirable and the same goes for doctors, junior and senior, ambulance teams and the rest. There is even no objection to train drivers being enriched—although I personally think that bus drivers do a much tougher job—nor young barristers, physiotherapists nor anyone else, nor to ensuring really good and safe pensions for all of them.

However, and this is the core of it, those better conditions that we all want to see must wait for the duration—“the duration” is a phrase that was used during the Second World War. We will and can recover and find the resources to make good for all who deserve it, just as Beveridge in the last, darkest days of the Second World War said we could do, but not yet.

One-off payments for one-year awards, which are being talked about, may be justified in some cases, but only just. We may even come to our senses in all parties that may form a Government and make sure that modern capitalism works for all, and that millions of earners become owners en masse, with the dignity and security of capital to support every family. Meanwhile, for the duration, as in the darker times of war in the past, there are going to be difficulties and problems all around. I would have liked to have seen much more emphasis on that central message in the Budget—indeed, in all the statements by Ministers and opposition leaders as well—than I can detect, because that is the honest truth.

As for more investment, which is of course the key to our future strength and living standards, and to our fully generous support for the weakest in our society, I obviously hope that the Budget measures will enable more growth, investment and innovation. Perhaps the capital allowances will help. One sort of investment we could do without but which, regrettably, the Government seem poised to make is for another large-scale nuclear reactor at Sizewell in Suffolk, based on a replica design called EPR which has an utterly miserable provenance and a dud history. The official estimate for Sizewell is £20 billion, with readiness in about 2035; it is much more likely to be £30 billion and several years after that. Smaller, new-technology reactor sets, which were mentioned in the Budget, could be in place much sooner and with private instead of public money. That is the nuclear way forward, as my noble friend Lady Moyo mentioned in her maiden speech.

That colossal new expenditure, almost secretly sliding through, should be for future debate—very soon and, I hope, in this House. In the meantime, let it be explained honestly, openly and repeatedly to all the most deserving, to the strikers inflicting present misery and smashing the rights of others, and to the millions still suffering from crippling cost of living pressures that rewards and better days will come—but not, as most of the nation in past times understood intuitively, for the duration of the present world crisis that we are in and must, as a priority, overcome.

IMF Economic Outlook

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 31st January 2023 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Penn (Con)]

I believe that, last week, Tony Danker also welcomed a speech by my right honourable friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer that set out his vision for growth in the UK, looking at the sectors that we are most competitive in, setting out proposals for new regulatory freedoms in those sectors and investing in the drivers of our economy, such as education and enterprise.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, we ought to add a bit of balance to this discussion and note that the report ended with a comment that Britain was “on the right track”—not that we should place too much weight on the views of the IMF either way, because its record has not been too good. Has the Minister noticed a report from the BBC this morning that it is very worried that its interviewers, editors and staff are not sufficiently apprised of the technicalities and the understanding of modern economics and modern economic trends, and that it is going try to do something about it? Would she encourage it to do something? The impression that invariably pervades the morning programmes—not only on the BBC but others as well—in response to this kind of report is that everything is going wrong. Of course, there are things that need repairing, but the bias—not a political bias between left and right—is between pessimism and optimism, which nearly always comes out on the pessimistic side, so we have a lot to learn and we should encourage them to learn it.

[Baroness Penn (Con)]

I did note the report this morning, and, of course, impartiality is key to the BBC. The report is very interesting but, obviously, taking forward its recommendations is a matter for the BBC, and I believe that it is going to take them forward.