Autumn Forecast

Lord Hamilton of Epsom Excerpts

Monday 29th November 2010 Lords Chamber

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, it is always good to have the noble Lord, Lord Myners, present. I do not suppose that his Government ever applied any spin to any numbers. He shakes his head. Oh, well. All our memories are failing. Seriously, the difference this time is that we have a much greater, more transparent analysis of the numbers—over 150 pages of numbers. I am grateful to him for welcoming the formation of the Office for Budget Responsibility, and I hope he will be with me, giving it a fair wind in Committee on the Bill shortly.

There is a serious point here. Not only are there 150 pages of analysis and a lot more detail than was ever given before, and not only has that been available a couple of hours before my right honourable friend’s Statement, but we will be able to pick over it in the next few weeks. The OBR itself will come to the Treasury Select Committee and answer questions there and all sorts of other questions in different fora.

As to his specific question on the output gap, yes the numbers show that it will be 0.9 per cent in 2015, down from 3.3 or 3.4 per cent as it is now and from 4.2 per cent as it got to in 2009. As to the levels of private sector debt, I do not accept the numbers given by the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell; I accept the numbers that are in the OBR’s document. There will be a total leverage in the economy that is very far down on the over-leverage with which the previous Government left us.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

Does my noble friend the Minister accept that one of the critical things that it was important for the coalition Government to do was to reassure the financial markets that we had a handle on the whole question of the deficit which we had inherited? That is one of the reasons—my noble friend mentioned this—why interest rates have come down since the coalition Government took over and since the new Budget was announced, and one of the reasons why the interest burden is going to be much less over the coming years.

However, is it not rather depressing that the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, still goes on about the possibility of a double-dip recession when it is quite clear from these forecasts that the chances of that are almost nil?

[Lord Sassoon]

I am very grateful to my noble friend. I absolutely share his view both on the depressing scenarios that the Opposition choose to paint and on the overall scenario for solid growth which the OBR confirms.

As to the judgment of the financial markets, I have looked at this morning’s numbers, and the UK spread over the German 10-year Bund has gone down from 96 basis points at the date of the general election to 60 basis points today, which is a very significant measure of confidence by the international markets in our consolidation plan.

Finance: Fiscal and Monetary Policy

Lord Hamilton of Epsom Excerpts

Tuesday 2nd November 2010 Lords Chamber

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

Does my noble friend accept that, if we are to see a revival in the economy, it is going to come from the private sector and from low interest rates, and that those interest rates would be very much higher if this Government were not addressing the appalling structural deficit that we inherited from the previous Government?

[Lord Sassoon]

I completely agree and am grateful to my noble friend for drawing our attention to that. Indeed, only 10 days ago, after the spending review, Standard and Poor’s, one of the leading rating agencies, moved our rating from negative to stable. It is that confidence that keeps interest rates low and enables businesses to invest.

Banking: Bonuses

Lord Hamilton of Epsom Excerpts

Monday 1st November 2010 Lords Chamber

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, lots of people threaten to do all sorts of things when they are in the middle of a negotiation. Whatever we continue to do to tackle unacceptable bonus structures in banks, we want to ensure that, among other things, they are incentivised to align their remuneration structures with the reduction of risks that bankers entail, and that we continue to have an important banking sector in this country.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

My Lords, does my noble friend accept that one reason why there is so little finance for people to buy houses, and for small businesses, is that during the financial crisis many of the foreign banks took their money back to where they came from? They are not returning to London because they regard it as highly taxed, they regard certain members of the Government as extremely hostile to bankers, and they are worried about the degree of regulation. We must get these people back—contrary to what the noble Lord, Lord Dubs, said—because otherwise we will not have enough finance in this country to get the economy moving again.

[Lord Sassoon]

I certainly agree with my noble friend that we need a vibrant banking market to underpin the economy’s recovery. The action that the Government have taken to make sure that interest rates remain low is absolutely critical. We welcome the first steps taken recently by the British Bankers’ Association task force, which made a range of proposals that go to the heart of tackling the need for a continued flow of credit to British business.