Inflation

Thursday 17th March 2011 Lords Chamber

Question

11:15

Asked By

[Lord Barnett]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government whether they will clarify the comments made by the Chancellor of the Exchequer to the Governor of the Bank of England in his letter of 15 February on inflation targets.

[The Commercial Secretary to the Treasury (Lord Sassoon)]

My Lords, consistent with the Monetary Policy Committee remit, the governor is required to write to the Chancellor if inflation deviates from the target of 2 per cent as measured by the 12-month increase in the consumer prices index by more than one percentage point. In his response to the governor, the Chancellor noted the Monetary Policy Committee’s assessment of inflation prospects relative to the inflation target and welcomed the committee’s determination to ensure that inflation returns to target in the medium term.

[Lord Barnett]

My Lords, I congratulate the noble Lord on the variety of ways that he finds not to answer a question. There are only two answers to the big issue on interest rates: whether or not you agree that they should go up. The Chancellor, in reply to the Governor of the Bank of England, who had said that increasing interest rates would be a futile gesture at the moment, said that he had “complete confidence” in the governor. In those circumstances, and given that this Government are the most transparent in history, can the Minister tell us the Chancellor’s view? Is he for or against an increase in interest rates?

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, first, I am grateful for the congratulations, however backhanded, offered by the noble Lord, Lord Barnett, and I will bank them. We are discussing the letter from my right honourable friend the Chancellor to the governor. In that letter, as I attempted to explain in my first Answer, he does not express any view about interest rates because, as the noble Lord well knows, the setting of interest rates is an independent matter for the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. I am sorry if I have to be boring about this, but there seems to be some misunderstanding. It is absolutely not for the Chancellor to express any view on this matter. What he does, as the noble Lord recognises, is to express confidence in the governor and the MPC structure and to support their independence.

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, the Chancellor’s letter, which is suitably bland and opaque, contains an intriguing suggestion. It says that the Government are committed to reducing the drivers of inflation, including,

“demand for energy and supply constraints in food markets”.

Can the Minister say what the Government are doing on those two matters?

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, I am grateful to my noble friend for recognising that the Chancellor’s letter was indeed couched in suitable terms. What my right honourable friend said on these points related specifically to commodity markets with our G20 partners—this is a particular focus of the G20 presidency, now with the French—to make sure that we have some global understanding of the drivers and an analysis of what might follow from that.

[Lord Peston]

My Lords—

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom]

My Lords—

[Noble Lords]

This side!

[Lord Peston]

My Lords, does the Minister agree that the problem is that the only instrument available to the MPC is the interest rate? The present rise in price levels is externally driven, which an increase in the interest rate can influence only by strengthening sterling. That would shift demand away from British markets to overseas markets and totally undermine the Government’s strategy. We know that the rules are that the Chancellor cannot say any of that, for obvious reasons, but is the Minister aware that three members of the MPC voted for a rise in interest rates, each one of whom is supposedly an economist? I do not know whether that is a source of enormous embarrassment to the Chancellor, but it certainly is to me.

[Lord Sassoon]

I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Peston, as ever, for his insights and for pointing out that he did not expect the Chancellor to answer the question that was posed. Therefore, by extension, he would not expect me to do so. There are a number of very serious points here, the most important of which for the Government is that we need to stick to our fiscal policies as they were set out in the Budget and the spending plans last year. Only yesterday, the OECD endorsed the Government’s fiscal consolidation plans and structural reforms, pointing out that, in its view, this rebalancing was necessary for stronger growth. That is what we must stick to as a background against which the independent MPC is best able to make its interest rate decisions.