Housebuilders

Lord Green of Deddington Excerpts

Thursday 11th January 2018 Lords Chamber

[Lord Green of Deddington (CB)]

My Lords, my purpose in speaking in this debate is to point out that the supply of housing is only half the story, albeit admirably described by my noble friend Lord Best. The other half is of course demand. A major factor in demand is—noble Lords may have guessed—immigration. The Government are in denial on that central issue of this most important debate.

The Secretary of State in the other place said on 7 February last year, in reply to a question:

“Two thirds of housing demand has nothing to do with immigration; it is to do with natural population growth”.—[Official Report, Commons, 7/2/17; col. 248.]


That is simply untrue; indeed, it is even misleading. The starting point is DCLG’s most recent principal projection for England over the 25-year period to 2039, which shows an average increase of 210,000 households a year. Of this, it says that 63% will be down to “natural change”—note that term—and 37% will be due to future net migration. Note the word “future”. This was presumably the basis of the Secretary of State’s statement, but I wonder whether he really understands the basis on which these numbers were drawn up. For a start, immigration has been running at 40,000 or 50,000 higher than the Government’s assumption. Indeed, it has been close to the high-migration scenario, which would mean, if it came about, that we would have to build a new home every five minutes, day and night, throughout the period, just for new migrants.

The really misleading aspect, however, is that DCLG excluded the impact of previous migration on future demand. Instead, it buried it in “natural change”, attributing it to the existing population, rather than addressing it separately. Separate examination would of course boost the figure and the proportion substantially, especially as, under the population projections on the high-migration scenario—which we are close to— 85% of our future population will be due to immigration.

If anyone should doubt that the impact of immigration on housing demand has been played down, they could take a quick look at the past. ONS data from 2005 to 2014 show that of the additional households created in England in that 10 years, the proportion of foreign-born heads of household was 90%. I trust it is now obvious to noble Lords that claims that two-thirds of housing demand has nothing to do with immigration are simply ludicrous.

The only relatively good news in this sad saga is that the ONS is now to take over the preparation of household projections. Furthermore, we have a new and highly competent Minister of State in the renamed department. I hope he will insist on a proper analysis of the true impact of immigration on future housing demand and recognise, in doing so, that demand is a major aspect of the entire housing crisis. We should get this right and we should get the sources of it right.

Immigration

Lord Green of Deddington Excerpts

Wednesday 1st March 2017 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[Lord Green of Deddington]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what percentage of the change in the total number of households in the United Kingdom between 2010 and 2014 is attributed to households with a non-United Kingdom born household reference person.

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department for Communities and Local Government and Wales Office (Lord Bourne of Aberystwyth) (Con)]

My Lords, according to the Office for National Statistics, 90% of the growth in households from 2010 to 2014 can be attributed to households with a household reference person born outside the UK.

[Lord Green of Deddington (CB)]

My Lords, I have been asked to explain that a “household reference person” is modern bureaucratic-speak for head of household. Now we know what we are talking about, I thank the Minister for his response. Does he agree that we should welcome the many contributions that immigrants make to our society and economy, but that we should also be frank about the costs? Does he recall telling this House on 19 January that in the main scenario, just over one-third of additional households were due to net migration? Yet today he tells us that in the most recent period, 90% of additional households were headed by an immigrant. Surely it is now obvious that the DCLG should be using the high-migration scenario—that is, the one that implies a demand for a new house for a migrant family every five minutes, night and day.

[Lord Bourne of Aberystwyth]

My Lords, it is the case that 37% of household growth is due to net migration. I certainly endorse the noble Lord’s comment that we have every reason to be grateful for immigration; it adds to the diversity of national life and makes a significant contribution to national life, not least to the public services.

Immigration: Housing

Lord Green of Deddington Excerpts

Thursday 19th January 2017 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[Lord Green of Deddington]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what is their estimate of the number of new homes that will be required for migrants in England in each year up to 2039 on the basis of the most recent high migration variant of the population projections published by the Office for National Statistics.

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department for Communities and Local Government and Wales Office (Lord Bourne of Aberystwyth) (Con)]

My Lords, the higher migration scenario of the department’s household projections shows that there are projected to be an average of 243,000 new households forming each year between 2014 and 2039. Net migration accounts for an estimated 45% of this growth. In the main scenario, there are projected to be an average of 210,000 households forming per year, of which 37% is attributable to net migration.

[Lord Green of Deddington (CB)]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for his response. These are projections, not forecasts, but does he agree that the difference between projections can give you quite a good idea and that the other projection to look at is the one based on zero net migration? The difference between high and zero migration is 110,000 households being formed every year. That is 300 every day. To put the point slightly more dramatically, that would mean building a home every five minutes, night and day, for new arrivals until such time as we get those numbers down. I know there is a strong view in the House that there is a lot to be said for migration. All I am pointing out is that there are also costs.

[Lord Bourne of Aberystwyth]

My Lords, as I have indicated, just over a third of the growth in the main scenario is attributable to migration. It is a two-year cycle and we review the figures every two years. The next review will be at the end of this year, when some of the scenarios may well change because of the impact of Brexit over the period. But the noble Lord is absolutely right about the challenge of building more houses. That is certainly true, but most of it is not to do with migration.