(11 years, 11 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, perhaps I may simply elaborate a little on the question posed by the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer. Given that there is not to be a transfer of obligations between platforms, and given that the collapse of a platform could impose significant systemic risk on the economy with a large number of unclear positions, are we to understand that the lender of last resort will be required to stand behind a collapsed platform?
Perhaps I may also ask a question following that of the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer. The concept of interoperability is very important in the clearing of derivatives, so that corporates in particular can offset a position with one platform where they have a credit with another platform where they have a deficit. Will the Minister clarify that that involves a degree of mutualisation in the event of a failure of a platform because the failure of that platform will transfer to other platforms?
(12 years, 4 months ago)
Lords ChamberAs I listened to the Minister, it seemed to me that he was implying that there may be times when the FPC has no recommendations outstanding. Surely, however, the FPC will always have recommendations outstanding. It will always have a preferred leverage ratio or a gearing ratio or a deposit to loan or some other of the macroeconomic tools that it has to apply to the banking sector. I am not sure how keeping recommendations under review and reporting on them actually works in a situation in which there will always be recommendations in place. I cannot envisage a situation in which the FPC will say, “We have no views on anything, and therefore there is nothing that we need to be reporting and monitoring”. I may have misunderstood the point; if I have, I apologise, but I would appreciate some guidance from the Minister.
My Lords, we broadly welcome these amendments, in the sense that they are adding to the overall scrutiny and assessment of the activities of the FPC and thereby reinforcing, we believe, its general acceptability and strength of purpose. However, I want to raise a warning flag with respect to new Section 9QA(3), in which it is argued that the FPC will have to prepare,
“an estimate of the costs and an estimate of the benefits that would arise from … the direction or recommendation in question”.
These are macroeconomic measures. It is virtually impossible to provide a simple numerical estimate of the cost or benefit of a macro measure. There will be either a tendency to overestimate the costs, or a tendency to overestimate the benefit, in this particular case. Presenting an assessment in quantitative terms will give spurious precision and, indeed, spurious credibility to a particular measure. I assure the Minister that for any macro measure, I could write an entirely credible report saying that the costs exceeded the benefits and an equally credible report saying that the benefits exceeded the costs. This is simply extending the whole notion of cost-benefit analysis beyond the range in which it can effectively operate. It would be valuable to take account of an attempt to describe in broad qualitative terms the costs and benefits. However, please let us not have the spurious precision of numerical calculations of variables which, by their very nature, cannot be expressed in precise terms.
(13 years, 1 month ago)
Grand CommitteeMy Lords, to refer to the fact that the Government have apparently published only this morning the evidence of the consultation and the raising of the objection of not having had access to it as a clever procedural trick is an abuse of language.
The point we are making is that the Government should take seriously the consultation with the people of Northern Ireland and make the results of the consultation available to the Opposition so that they can properly scrutinise and assess the impacts of the change. That is all that I asked for. I also pointed out that on 13 October the Merits Committee wrote to the Treasury requesting that the material be published, and it was not published until this morning.
As my noble friends and I have made clear, we are entirely supportive of this legislation. We want to get it through as soon as possible, but we want proper due process. This is an abuse of due process. I think it would be best if we let the Minister proceed with his Motion, because he is not interested in actually debating the issues.
I would always defer to the advice and conclusion of my noble friend Lord Eatwell, but the petulant language used by the Minister is a sign of how rattled he is by this subject. I invite the Minister to clarify. He has said that if this order is not approved today it would deny the people of Northern Ireland certainty and protection in due course, with effect from the end of March next year. Can the Minister confirm that delaying the approval of this order for another week so that the necessary information can be reviewed by Parliament would mean that that certainty could not be delivered and that this is, therefore, the last chance for us to discuss it? In the absence of a clear answer I think that the should withdraw this order and re-present it to the Committee in a week or so.
(13 years, 9 months ago)
Lords ChamberI am indeed. It is appropriate to thank people, when a Bill has gone through in this co-operative manner, for what has been achieved.
I know that the Government think that this side of the House has taken a somewhat belt-and-braces approach to the independence of the OBR; I am sure that Sir Humphrey, or perhaps Sir Nicholas, does. However, it can do no harm to the OBR’s reputation to have a belt in place when the braces fail.
It is the Government’s responsibility now to ensure that this important experiment in economic governance is a success. We on this side wish Mr Chote and his team well.
My Lords, my words are very much in the same direction as my noble friend’s. This has been a superb example of the House working well. We had long and detailed discussions in Committee. The Minister listened attentively and reserved his position, but came back with constructive amendments, and at all stages he kept fully informed everyone who is interested in the Bill by writing to us and keeping us up to date. It is a better Bill as a consequence of the House working effectively in the way that it did.
(13 years, 11 months ago)
Grand CommitteeI do not quite follow that. If the Treasury is going to disagree, or at least have the capability of disagreeing, with a forecast put forward by the OBR, how can it do that other than on the basis of a forecast of its own? I note that the word “published” was slipped into the Minister’s final sentence. Surely if the Treasury is going to have the capability of assessing and disagreeing with the OBR model, it must have some forecast of its own.
Perhaps I, too, may make a comment. I took the Minister’s reply to the question asked by the noble Baroness, Lady Browning, about situations where there is a difference between HMT’s forecast and the OBR’s forecast as confirming that the Treasury will be clear about the fact that its own forecast was different and that its policy decisions were informed by its own forecast rather than by that of the OBR.