Autumn Statement 2023

Lord Dobbs Excerpts

Wednesday 29th November 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Dobbs (Con)]

My Lords, as a member of the ranks of the struggling self-employed, I applaud the Autumn Statement, and particularly the idea that we should cut taxes to get growth. It has been mentioned by many Members today; it is a great new idea and it might even catch on. In fact, our growth record is not as bad as we sometimes pretend. In recent years, it has been better than those of many others—I think my noble friend said that it had surpassed all expectations. I welcome her to her new role on the Front Bench, but, if she will forgive me for saying so, in truth, and for a very long time, under successive Governments it has not been anywhere near good enough.

I have been struck by how many noble Lords seem to rely so heavily on experts—too heavily, in my view. Over the years, that has allowed too many Governments to shrug off their basic responsibilities. It is 25 years since Gordon Brown handed over a great chunk of the Treasury’s responsibilities to the Bank of England. Today, we worship at the altar of the OBR.

It has been fascinating that almost every speaker today has leaned on the OBR, including my noble friend, even as on several occasions she mentioned how many of its forecasts have been wildly off target. We have put ourselves in thrall to the so-called experts. I always rely on Winston Churchill, who always has a great word. He once warned about having experts on tap, but never on top. Yet often—too often—we simply claim that we are following the science, so it is not our fault really, even though that excuse is being ripped to shreds daily at the Covid inquiry.

Our own Economic Affairs Committee got it right earlier this week in its excellent report, when it said that the Bank of England’s “expanding remit” should be cut, its responsibilities decreased and its growing “democratic deficit” remedied. That is a healthy and very timely vote of scepticism, but all recent Governments have spread our wealth around—here, there, far and wide—even before that wealth has been created. How many times have we heard that phrase from Ministers, “Whatever it takes”, meaning, of course, that we will spend whatever it takes? We will tax and borrow, and all the rest, and triple lock it. Whatever it takes: shake the money tree yet again and hope that there are not too many pigeons roosting above our heads.

That has allowed us to put off difficult decisions. One little irritant of mine is around dealing with the desperately poor public sector productivity levels, when civil servants are still working from home in vast numbers—even as productivity drops and TV daytime figures, fascinatingly, soar and as telephones do not get answered. Why is that still the case? Forgive me: I am sounding grumpy, even cynical. I know it is not like me; I think I must still be suffering from frozen thresholds.

Let me try to raise spirits by looking at what is going on in the United States for some interesting lessons. Not very long ago, it was the sun-kissed cities of the west coast that were the exciting, almost romantic, future. Yet today, so sadly, the fabled streets of San Francisco are overwhelmed with misery and homelessness, while in Los Angeles residents are moving out in record numbers. Yes, California has the sun, but it also has the highest tax rates in that union. There is something similar in the old economic heartland of the north-east: New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. The dynamo is slowing. The energy and ambition are moving south to states such as Texas, Florida and the Carolinas. Twenty years ago, the north-east was considerably wealthier than the south. Then its states raised their taxes, while the south’s cut theirs—and the south is where cities are now booming. If you go to Dallas, Atlanta and Miami, they almost shake with enterprise and ambition. Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, is moving from the west coast to Miami. I do not want to shower this House with statistics but today the low-tax south has a higher share of the nation’s GDP than the once all-conquering north-east. I do not think that is just because of the weather.

I wholeheartedly applaud the Government’s determination to boost growth by cutting taxes. Growth may not be the answer to everything, but it is the foundation of so much of what we want for our future, our children’s future and our country’s future. Can my noble friend confirm that this commitment to cutting taxes and boosting growth is not simply a short-term expedient, or even a pre-election jolly, but rather a deeply felt and long-term mission—a crusade, even—and one that will carry this country forward? I hope we will all remember that, without better growth, very few political promises are worth the inflated paper that they are usually printed on.