Economic Growth: Public Spending

Lord Clarke of Nottingham Excerpts

Wednesday 12th February 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

I am sorry that the noble Lord is not able to support the increases in the national minimum wage; that is a shame to hear. I do not know whether he was able to read the monetary policy report that was published alongside the growth forecast last week, but the Bank of England said that the combined effects of the measures in the Autumn Budget are expected to boost the level of GDP by around 0.75%.

[Lord Clarke of Nottingham (Con)]

The biggest mistake the Government made was during the general election, which they were obviously going to win, when they promised not to raise the basic taxes—income tax, VAT, national insurance for employees and so on—which are the normal toolbox of a Chancellor, so that when they inherited a fiscal crisis, they raised quite the worst possible tax on employers and employees. At the same time, they borrowed billions of pounds more, saying it was not more spending but investment. After this disaster, will the Minister now agree that the new Government have made a financial crisis even worse than it was when they were elected? Will they turn the March Statement into a mini-Budget to try to begin to repair the damage they have done?

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

With the greatest respect to the noble Lord, I completely disagree with what he says. His contention is that we should have taxed working people after a cost of living crisis, and after the previous Government froze income tax thresholds and raised taxes on working people by £30 billion. I completely disagree; if that is his contention, I think he is wrong. He also says we were wrong to increase investment in the economy. The IMF has said that the lack of public investment in the economy was one of the major constraints to economic growth, and we have rectified that—so, on that point too, I think he is wrong.

Fiscal Rules

Lord Clarke of Nottingham Excerpts

Tuesday 29th October 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Clarke of Nottingham (Con)]

My Lords, we used to have a rule of Budget purdah in this country for the very good reason that it prevented market speculation in the run-up to the House of Commons hearing the Budget details. Every Chancellor who followed me in office has steadily weakened that and, this year, we have had three months of absolutely absurd semi-debate, with hints, leaks and suggestions from the Government being debated. It began by ruling out any question of raising the four most basic taxes that everybody previously turned to when they needed more revenue, because they share the burden more fairly across the country. This has now accumulated with the Prime Minister deciding, two days before the Budget, that he will take for himself a popular announcement—to some of his Cabinet colleagues and Back-Benchers—that he will ease the fiscal rules on which the Budget is based.

Fortunately, this nonsense has so far had only a slightly dampening effect on investors and markets, but it has had an undoubtedly dampening effect on business activity for the last two or three months. Will the Minister ask his colleagues to consider returning to Budget purdah in future years? If this circus is now to be the pattern for every Budget throughout this Parliament, then, sooner or later, we are going to have market speculation and a financial crisis of the kind that followed Liz Truss’s Budget.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

The noble Lord is far more experienced in these matters than me, and I have the greatest respect for him. He mentioned three types of activity. The first one he mentioned was the manifesto commitments we gave: he mentioned the major taxes and he is absolutely right. In our manifesto, we committed to not increasing taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase the basic, higher or additional rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT. I think it is perfectly right that we do that and specify that in our manifesto. He also mentioned speculation. There has been huge speculation ahead of this Budget around specific taxes which at this Dispatch Box, on multiple occasions, I have been unable to comment on, and I think he will understand why. As for announcements being made ahead of a Budget, that is a perfectly routine thing to do, and it is right that Parliament then has the opportunity to scrutinise those at the appropriate moment.

Financial Services and Markets Bill

Lord Clarke of Nottingham Excerpts

Report stage
Tuesday 13th June 2023 Lords Chamber

[Viscount Trenchard (Con)]

My Lords, I declare my interest as a director of two investment companies, as stated in the register. I was interested to hear the remarks of my noble friend Lord Forsyth of Drumlean about American Express. He said that he had had a gold credit card with that company since 1979. Well, I had a gold card issued by American Express in 1978. I was very proud of having that card. I did not use it often, but it is one of those cards that clears automatically every month so there is no danger of running up unpaid debts and paying 20% or 30% interest.

In November 2021, I missed an email from them asking me for KYC information, including my passport details, proof of address and a utility bill, and I omitted to reply. I then got another email a month later—with no telephone call or letter through the post—saying that my account will be closed down. I telephoned them and, after waiting for three-quarters of an hour or so, I spoke to someone who agreed that they did not really need KYC information on me, but if I supplied it and uploaded it to their website, my account would not be cancelled, and all would be fine. I duly did that, but the account was still cancelled in about February 2022. I was not happy about this, because, as I said, I rather liked my gold card issued in 1978, so I took issue with them.

Over the past 15 months, I have spoken with them about six times; I have been on the chat function about six times. I now have two names of individuals and an email address I have been corresponding with, but my account is still cancelled—although they still send me a monthly statement through the post giving me a credit balance. I will print out the Hansard report of this debate and attach it to my next email to American Express, because I am not giving up on this.

[Lord Clarke of Nottingham (Con)]

I will not make a speech giving my experience of American Express, but it is remarkably like that of my noble friends Lord Trenchard and Lord Forsyth. I decided that I could not be bothered with such outrageous burdens being placed on me. Having had my card from some time in the 1970s, I have allowed them to cancel it. Having heard of my noble friend’s experience, I am rather glad that I just let it go and reverted to using my Barclays visa card on all occasions.

[Lord Naseby (Con)]

I will take my noble friends’ points further. My experience was identical to that of my noble friend Lord Forsyth. Frankly, I have cancelled the whole thing; Barclaycard does a far better job.

Spending Round 2019

Lord Clarke of Nottingham Excerpts

Wednesday 4th September 2019 Commons Chamber

[The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Sajid Javid)]

Let me start by saying a few words about the circumstances surrounding today’s statement. We are in uncharted waters. I understand the strong feelings around the House on these important questions, but it cannot be right for a proud, sovereign democracy to ignore the will of the people. If the House votes for the Bill this afternoon, all we will be doing is delaying what the people have entrusted to us to do, and creating even more uncertainty for our democracy and our economy through a general election that nobody wants. We cannot allow that uncertainty to distract us from delivering on the people’s priorities, so today, to give certainty where we can, I announce our spending plans for Britain’s first year outside the European Union.

After a decade of recovery from Labour’s great recession, we are turning the page on austerity and beginning a new decade of renewal. A new economic era needs a new economic plan, and today we lay the foundations with the fastest increase in day-to-day spending for 15 years. The plans I announce today mean that we will be able to build a safer Britain where our streets are more secure; a healthier Britain where we can care for people throughout their lives; and a better educated Britain where every child and young person has the opportunity to succeed, no matter where they come from or who their parents are. We will build a global Britain where we walk tall in the world with more, not less, of a presence on the international stage; a modern Britain where we embrace diversity as a strength; an enterprising Britain where we are proud of our scientists, our inventors and our entrepreneurs; and a prosperous Britain where we live within our means and growth comes from every corner of this nation. Today we lay the foundations for a stronger, fairer and more prosperous future for our great country.

It has been three years and three months since the British people gave us their instruction to leave the European Union. If people are going to have faith in the ballot box again, we absolutely have to follow through on that instruction. That is why we have set a deadline of 31 October—just 57 days away. The Government still believe that the best outcome would be to leave with a deal, and we could not be more serious about negotiating for such an outcome. My right hon. Friend the Prime Minister has set out our position, and our central ask is clear: to remove the anti-democratic backstop from the withdrawal agreement. But without the ability and willingness to walk away with no deal, we will not get a good deal.

I know that some businesses and households are concerned about what a no-deal outcome would mean for them. I recognise that, and I understand that the uncertainty around Brexit is challenging, but this is ultimately a question of trust in our democracy. In the end, a strong economy can only be built on the foundation of a successful democracy.

[Mr Kenneth Clarke (Rushcliffe) (Ind)]

On a point of order, Mr Speaker. What has this got to do with the spending review?

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[Sajid Javid]

I have to say, Mr Speaker, I did not detect many questions, so I will finish very quickly to give an opportunity for Members to ask proper questions.

The simple truth is that Labour is unfit to govern. It would not deliver Brexit. It would wreck our economy over again. Hard-working families will pay the price and we will not let it happen.

[Mr Kenneth Clarke (Rushcliffe) (Ind)]

I genuinely welcome my right hon. Friend to his appointment and congratulate him on it, and I sincerely wish him every success in carrying out his extremely important duties. I also welcome the many spending announcements he made. In particular, I single out further education, to which successive Governments have been trying to give better priority for the last 30 or 40 years. I hope that it shows in effect. Will he reassure me that the announcements that he has made are consistent with the fiscal rules of his predecessors, that we are still subject to the same limits on the deficit that were laid down, and that he is still aiming to achieve year-by-year reductions in debt as a proportion of GDP? If he can give me those assurances, it demonstrates what he has just said: that he is able to make these welcome announcements because austerity has been brought to an end by the achievements of his two predecessors over the last nine years.

[Sajid Javid]

I welcome the warm words of my right hon. and learned Friend. I remember all the excellent work he did when he held this position and I hope that I can learn from the way in which he performed his duties as Chancellor.

My right hon. and learned Friend asks me a specific question about the fiscal rules. This spending round is within the current fiscal rules. According to our forecasts, we expect to meet both the key rules of borrowing staying inside 2% of GDP and seeing a further fall in debt as a proportion of GDP. I would, however, point him to some of the other comments I made in my statement about looking again at the fiscal rules, particularly with an eye to taking advantage of record low interest rates and investing more—credibly—in an infrastructure revolution.

Spring Statement

Lord Clarke of Nottingham Excerpts

Wednesday 13th March 2019 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

Order. It might be helpful to the House if I indicate that, given the pressure of time and the importance of subsequent business—to which reference was made earlier—it will almost certainly not be possible on this occasion for me to take everybody on this statement, which, as the House knows, is ordinarily my practice. I am looking to move on at approximately 2.45 pm. It may be possible to move on before then, but I certainly do not want it to be significantly later than then.

[Mr Kenneth Clarke (Rushcliffe) (Con)]

May I sincerely congratulate my right hon. Friend the Chancellor on keeping his head while all around are losing theirs? I am sure that he would have liked to have delivered a rather different statement if the vote had gone the other way last night. Does he agree that economic forecasting is difficult at all times, particularly at a time of slowing global growth, trade war, Chinese debt problems, and, above all, the uncertainty of Brexit? Does he agree that the optimistic forecasts by the OBR are based on a smooth progression to Brexit, with no new barriers to trade and investment with our most important market on the basis that we currently enjoy under the customs union of the single market?

Finally, will the Chancellor guarantee to me that he will keep his fiscal powder dry—keep his reserves, as he may need them to avoid a recession or a financial crisis; that he will resist the irresponsible approach of the Opposition, who have the idea of spending and borrowing money only as a policy platform on every issue; and that he will resist all the other understandable demands from all parts just to spend money in response to lobbies, because he has the duty of keeping the British economy intact at a time of almost unprecedented crisis and unforeseeable problems?

[Mr Hammond]

I can confirm to my right hon. and learned Friend that the OBR’s central forecast is based, as before, on an assumption of a deal done with the European Union so that we exit via a transition mechanism and have a future close trading relationship with it. I can assure him—I am sure he needs no reassurance—that I will not be remotely tempted by the policies or the profligacy of the shadow Chancellor. My right hon. and learned Friend is absolutely right that until such time as we are sure that we will not exit via a disorderly no deal, I have to keep that fiscal powder dry, but no one will be happier than me when I can release some of that headroom to support public services, capital investment and lower taxes in this economy.

Leaving the EU: Economic Impact of Proposed Deal

Lord Clarke of Nottingham Excerpts

Wednesday 20th February 2019 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride]

I thank the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford) for his vociferous oration, but vociferous orations are no substitute for the facts. Let me remind him of some of the facts in respect of the points he made. He says that we have made no analysis of the impact of these arrangements on the United Kingdom economy, and that is simply not the case. The information we have come forward with is a robust analysis of the future outcomes of the four different scenarios that we consider in that analysis. He levels the charge that we are in some way treating the United Kingdom with contempt, and that is certainly not the case. The House has been very deeply preoccupied with matters of Brexit and the nature of how we might exit the European Union, and the Prime Minister has set out that there will be further debate this time next week to be followed, in the event that we do not pass a meaningful vote, with another amendable motion to be considered by the House.

The right hon. Gentleman also says that the deal, as he terms it, would have a negative impact on the UK economy. The analysis clearly shows that, under every single scenario it analyses, it is better to have this deal than no deal or any of the alternatives. Finally, he decried the fact that we had not put forward a bespoke deal for analysis within our analysis, and that illustrates his lack of understanding of what the future political declaration is all about, which is a range of possible outcomes. That is entirely what the analysis models.

[Mr Kenneth Clarke (Rushcliffe) (Con)]

It is perfectly obvious to all those involved in the negotiations, both the British negotiators and the EU negotiators, that if Britain were to leave the EU with no deal, it would be disastrous for the British economy in the medium to long term and extremely damaging to the economies of many EU countries, particularly those nearest the UK. Does the Minister accept that it is rather silly to think that it is useful in these negotiations to take up the simplistic view that we must pretend we are threatening to leave with no deal to improve our bargaining position? Will he reassure me that the negotiations are proceeding on the basis that both sides know that they do not want no deal and that they are therefore trying to limit the damaging consequences of risking that? What we should really pursue is retaining the benefits of the customs union and the single market and continued free trade with our largest customer in the world, as it will always be, as is being urged on us by every industrial leader in this country.

Finance (No. 3) Bill

Lord Clarke of Nottingham Excerpts

3rd reading: House of Commons & Report stage: House of Commons
Tuesday 8th January 2019 Commons Chamber

[Mr Kenneth Clarke (Rushcliffe) (Con)]

With respect, it is quite right to concede that some of the fears being raised about no deal are grossly exaggerated, but the problems are quite real enough. If we leave with no deal, we will be the only developed country in the world that has no trade agreement at all with anybody and that is having to fall back on WTO rules, which are made to sound marvellous by the Brexiteers but which do not actually amount to very much. We will also be erecting new barriers to trade and investment around the borders of the United Kingdom, including along the Irish border, and that is bound to disadvantage our economy very seriously indeed.

[Jonathan Reynolds]

The Father of the House is as accurate as ever. Some colleagues are pursuing a dangerous argument that all our trading relationships with countries that are not in the EU are somehow currently under WTO terms, which is an absurd misconception. We have entered into trade agreements as a member of the EU that account for something like 16% of our goods exports.

Regardless of the significant impacts of a no-deal outcome, we could go further and say that to leave the EU having not secured a deal—an acrimonious departure —would damage our relationship with our most important trading partner for years to come and fundamentally undermine our credibility on the world stage. I cannot see how any serious-minded Member of this House could understand that that would not be of severe consequence for the United Kingdom, which is why it is so important that this House makes a clear statement today about the dangers of no deal.

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[Nick Boles (Grantham and Stamford) (Con)]

I will be very brief, not least because my right hon. Friends the Members for Loughborough (Nicky Morgan) and for West Dorset (Sir Oliver Letwin) have described much better than I ever could why I am going to support amendment 7, which I signed almost while it was hot off the presses before Christmas. The one point I want to address is the question that has been raised, and indeed the accusation that has been made, that in doing so I and other Conservative Members are breaking faith with our constituents and somehow breaking a manifesto commitment. I believe this to be utterly wrong, and also a rather disgraceful suggestion to make.

In the referendum campaign on our membership of the European Union, I supported and indeed voted remain. However, the argument of my colleagues who voted and campaigned for leave that I found most powerful and most emotionally impactful was that Parliament is sovereign and should take control of all the decisions that affect the lives of my constituents. That was the argument that the leave campaign made that I found the most difficult to resist and the most difficult to say was worth compromising for the sake of our membership of the European Union. It is therefore somewhat extraordinary that the very same people who made that argument so eloquently and effectively during the referendum campaign should somehow have the temerity to criticise me or other hon. and right hon. Members for doing what we believe is right in the interests of our constituents and in the national interest.

[Mr Kenneth Clarke]

I cannot think of a single leading Conservative Brexiteer who would have changed his opinions on membership of the EU in the slightest had the remain side won the referendum. They made it quite clear that they had no intention whatever of abandoning their long-held, quite sincere views, which they would have carried on arguing in this House and voting for. Does my hon. Friend share my view?

[Nick Boles]

The Father of the House is completely right. I have to say—I am sure the same is true of him—that I rather admire them for it. I admire my hon. Friend the Member for Stone (Sir William Cash) for making the same arguments passionately and with principle for 40 years—longer, practically, than many Members have been alive.

I want briefly to address the question of the Conservative manifesto commitment. I should point out that quite large chunks of the Conservative manifesto were junked by the Prime Minister during her own election campaign, so I do not know quite why we have elevated it to be a sort of Moses-style tablet. Nevertheless, it contained a sentence saying that we maintain that no deal is better than a bad deal. I agree, and I agreed then, in my hospital bed, when I agreed to stand as a candidate in the election, that that was the right position for the Government to take. As my right hon. Friend the Member for South Dorset (Sir Oliver Letwin)—West Dorset; apologies to the people of Dorset—explained, it was entirely right for the Government to want to prepare for no deal. Unfortunately, as he pointed out, they failed to do so.

However, what we did not say in that manifesto is that no deal is better than any deal; we said no deal is better than a bad deal. I remind my hon. Friends that we have a deal; it is a deal that the 27 nations of the European Union have agreed, that the Prime Minister, who recently won a confidence motion in the Conservative party, and her Cabinet have endorsed and advocate, and that, at the last count, about 200 Conservative Members, including myself, intend to support when the vote is finally put. It is simply not possible to suggest that by saying that I will not countenance no deal, I am breaking that manifesto commitment. We do not have a bad deal; we may have a deal that you, individually, do not like —not you, Mr Speaker, but individual hon. and right hon. Members—but nobody can claim that we do not have a deal that it is reasonable for Conservative Members to support. It is therefore reasonable for us to say that, at this late stage, with the Government having prepared as woefully as they have for no deal, we will on no account countenance a no-deal Brexit.

Finally, I join my right hon. Friend the Member for West Dorset in very clearly saying this: I will vote on any motion, on any amendment, on any piece of legislation, proposed by whomsoever in this House to ensure that we leave the European Union on 29 March with a deal or not at all.

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[Sir Oliver Letwin]

rose—

[Mr Kenneth Clarke]

rose—

[Robert Jenrick]

I will give way one last time, but I have only a couple of minutes.

[Mr Clarke]

I, too, extend my sympathies to my hon. Friend, who drew the short straw of responding to the debate. He is trying very eloquently to minimise the significance of the whole thing, but of course he realises there are big issues behind this. Can he tell us what contingency arrangements the Treasury has made for the fiscal impact of leaving with no deal, and its likely impact on our trade, our manufacturing industry and so on? He must concede that the published figures for future deficits, debts and so on will be made utterly meaningless if we leave with no deal, and a fiscal crisis will occur. Is the Chancellor planning the emergency Budget he will probably require?

[Robert Jenrick]

My right hon. and learned Friend and constituency neighbour tempts me to go into areas that I should not, but the Chancellor has said that we will be prepared and that we have fiscal room available—that was what he stated in the Budget, as certified by the Office for Budget Responsibility. My right hon. and learned Friend appears to be making the case for prudent preparations in case of a no-deal scenario, which is all that clause 89 seeks to achieve.

European Union (Withdrawal) Act

Lord Clarke of Nottingham Excerpts

Thursday 6th December 2018 Commons Chamber

[Mr Hammond]

My hon. Friend is right, and he takes me back to the question from my hon. Friend the Member for Mid Bedfordshire (Ms Dorries) earlier. If we were to leave the EU in a real no-deal scenario, with such issues left unresolved, we would be in a very difficult place. The small number of transit permits available to hauliers would be just one of the many issues that would cause considerable difficulty.

[Mr Kenneth Clarke (Rushcliffe) (Con)]

Before the Chancellor started giving way, he made the point that just being in the customs union was not replicating what we have at the moment, but does he accept that, were we to join Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein in the European Free Trade Association and, on top of that, agree a customs union that we would need to keep the Irish border open, we could keep a very high proportion of the economic benefits of membership, even if the House insists on proceeding to give up political membership and other aspects of the EU?

[Mr Hammond]

My right hon. and learned Friend is right that, strictly, the flow of trade in goods would be facilitated by such an arrangement, but there are two problems with the EFTA-EEA model. First, it would continue to impose on us the obligations of freedom of movement, which we believe the British people voted against in the referendum decision in 2016. Secondly, it would leave our financial services industry in particular extremely exposed to having to comply with a rapidly evolving body of EU regulation over which we would have no influence.

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[John McDonnell]

Let me press on now.

My fourth and final point is the vulnerability of our economy to a bad Brexit, and, indeed, the vulnerability of so many of our people—the people we represent. The Prime Minister’s deal does not give the certainty our country needs. Even the trickle of muted support from businesses when the deal was first done has now been replaced by a deafening silence. That is because businesses and trade unions alike now understand that under the Prime Minister’s deal we are facing, in 2020, more uncertainty as this Government then decide whether to extend the transition or fall into an unlimited backstop.

If a bad Brexit is forced upon our country, and the economy and jobs are not protected, many of our people who have suffered from eight years of austerity will suffer even more. Indeed, many of us believe that it has been the economic failures of the past and the present that helped to deliver the Brexit vote. I take no pleasure in saying that it was a vote from which the Government seem almost determined to learn nothing. We have an economy that has seen wages grow more slowly than in any other advanced country in the G20.

[Mr Kenneth Clarke]

The right hon. Gentleman started in a welcome tone of offering cross-party collaboration. I was waiting to see what he proposed as the starting point for the Labour party. He spent about 30 seconds on that, in a couple of sentences, and he is now back to attacking the Government and the withdrawal agreement. Am I right in understanding that he essentially agrees with me that we should stay in a customs union and collaborate with our European partners on international trade deals? He talked about us collaborating with the single market, which I do not quite understand. Nowhere in the world is there an open border between two countries unless they have a customs union and regulatory convergence. Is he advocating that? That not only solves the Irish border problem, but eases the economic consequences of leaving the European Union to a considerable extent.

[John McDonnell]

I thank the Father of the House for his intervention. Let me make this clear. First, we want a permanent customs union, and we want to ensure we have a future say in future trade deals that reflects the strength and size of our economy. Secondly, we want a close collaborative relationship with the single market, which we believe we can achieve, but we also want the ongoing protection of regulations on employment, the environment and consumer rights. Those are the negotiations that we wish to undertake—if not in government, as a Parliament.

Leaving the EU: Economic Analysis

Lord Clarke of Nottingham Excerpts

Wednesday 28th November 2018 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride]

Let me deal first with the point the right hon. Gentleman made about the Chancellor. The Chancellor is of course accountable to this House. He will be appearing before the Treasury Committee on Wednesday to give full account of the arrangements we are discussing today. Indeed, the Prime Minister herself will be appearing before the Liaison Committee.

The right hon. Gentleman raised the Chequers deal and the fact that analysis is being based around that in this paperwork. That is entirely appropriate given that, as he will know, the political declaration suggests a spectrum of possible outcomes for the arrangements. That is why we not only analyse the Chequers proposal, but have a sensitivity analysis around that proposal as well.

The right hon. Gentleman raises the issue of a no-deal scenario. It is the Labour party that is pushing us more in the direction of a potential no-deal scenario by—I have to say it—deciding for its own political reasons to object to the deal we have put forward. To be clear, that deal is good for safeguarding the economic future of our country and it delivers on the 2016 referendum, giving us control of our borders, our money, our laws and ensuring we protect the integrity of the United Kingdom, while allowing us to go out and make future trade deals. This Government are totally committed to achieving that.

[Mr Kenneth Clarke (Rushcliffe) (Con)]

Does my right hon. Friend accept that it is not possible to leave a free trade area with our largest and most important wealthy customers and introduce tariff barriers, custom delays, regulatory divergences and delays at borders without making this country poorer than it otherwise would be? It is difficult to see how anybody who follows economic policy can argue the contrary while keeping a straight face. Can he reassure me that the withdrawal agreement that is being put before the House enables no change at all to be made to our economic and trading arrangements through March next year until we go into a transition period that can be extended as long as is necessary to introduce practically any economic arrangement for the future that we want? It is obvious to me that we should stay in the single market and the customs union. Can he reassure me that that is still a perfectly reasonable possibility?

[Mel Stride]

My right hon. and learned Friend raises a number of points. The paper does not duck the question of the economic impact of the proposed deal compared to the status quo—the relationship with the European Union as it persists today. It makes it very clear that it will be detrimental in the economic sense. That is extremely clear. But I would put it to him that the deal is the best for the economy going forward as part of a deal that also delivers on several other things, some of which are entirely non-economic, such as control of our borders and free movement.

Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Bill

Lord Clarke of Nottingham Excerpts

3rd reading: House of Commons & Report stage: House of Commons
Monday 16th July 2018 Commons Chamber

[Anna Soubry]

The hon. Gentleman is absolutely right. It is disgraceful, because this White Paper is a genuine attempt by our Prime Minister to heal the divisions in our party, and indeed the divisions in our country, and take us to a smooth and sensible Brexit that delivers for everybody.

[Mr Kenneth Clarke (Rushcliffe) (Con)]

Does my right hon. Friend agree that, if the Government were guaranteed the support of the Labour party and the Scottish National party against these wrecking amendments, we could finally reveal what a tiny minority of the House of Commons is trying to hold us all to ransom over a reasonable deal with the European Union?

[Anna Soubry]

My right hon. and learned Friend is right, as ever.

The truth is that both main political parties are now in the grasp of the few who falsely claim to speak for the many. A lack of ability, or perhaps courage, the over-liking of the safety and sanctity of ministerial office or, frankly, just a quiet life, on whichever side of the House, and a guaranteed income for a loyal Back Bencher with a handsome majority, mean that our country is hurtling not just towards the extremes of British political life, but over the Brexit cliff, which the overwhelming majority of leavers did not vote for—indeed, they were promised the precise opposite.

The time has come for the nonsense to be stopped. The time has come for people to show courage and do the right thing by our country. We are leaving the European Union, but we have to leave in such a way that protects jobs and prosperity—and peace in Northern Ireland—for everybody in this country. It is time for people to put aside the ideology and the nonsenses that invariably come from not inhabiting the real world. Let us face up to reality, as this White Paper seeks to do, and reject these two ludicrous amendments that the Government have agreed to. In due course, let us wake up to the further reality: we will end up in the single market and the customs union; the only question is when.

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[Mr David Davis (Haltemprice and Howden) (Con)]

For the convenience of members of the Gallery, I should start by saying that this is not a resignation statement—that was last week. This week is a return to my normal business, as an ordinary Back Bencher carrying out the scrutiny of business. I thought that it would be rather mundane until I walked into what appears to be this rhetorical firefight that we have had so far in the debate.

Before I come back to that, the Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Bill and its partner, the Trade Bill coming tomorrow, are vital pieces of legislation. In the newspapers at the weekend, I read that some people were so cross with the White Paper that they were proposing to vote against this. Well, I do not think that they can be much more cross than I am with the White Paper, but I urge them not to vote against it. These are vital pieces of legislation and they are necessary, whether we have the Government’s White Paper policy, my old White Paper policy, the FTA that some have talked about or indeed even the World Trade Organisation outcome. In every single case, we need these Bills and therefore I will be supporting them.

I want to speak directly to the new clause proposed by my right hon. Friend the Member for Broxtowe (Anna Soubry). I will do so without impugning anybody’s motives or questioning whether somebody is acting in the national interest or not and I will not be firing off any gibes. I am not quite sure who she was referring to when she talked about having an excessive attachment to public office, but I do not think it was me. The simple truth is that this is a vitally important argument. It is central to the whole question of the economic aspect of Brexit—Brexit is not just economic; it is democratic as well, but it is central to that—and I will put to one side in my arguments the fact that being out of the customs union was in the Conservative party’s manifesto and therefore, in theory at least, one we are committed to.

The arguments go right to the heart of the principal issues. The proponents of the new clauses have a clear belief in the national economic interest, but they clearly believe that being outside the customs union will lead to a precipitate loss of trade and that the loss of the ability to make trade deals matters less than that potential loss of trade. That is the core of the argument. It is pretty straightforward in that respect.

Let us look at some facts. Back in 1999, the United Kingdom—we are talking about the customs union, so this is about goods—was exporting 60% of its goods to the European Union and 40% to the rest of the world. Since then, that has gone down by approximately 1% per annum, so it is now about 45% to the European Union and the rest to the rest of the world. Pretty much by the end of this decade, it is likely to be 60:40 in favour of the rest of the world, so because it takes away the right to our own commercial policy, the prospect of staying inside the customs union favours the shrinking minority of our trade over the expanding, fast-growing majority of that trade. That is the very simple, fundamental, initial point that we should take on board. It also presumes that being outside the customs union will significantly damage trade because there will be friction at the border.

[Mr Kenneth Clarke]

One of the most remarkable features of the last 20 years has been the globalised economy and the very rapid growth and emergence of major new markets, so inevitably the balance of our trade was going to grow with them and decline with the European Union. We want to remain as attractive to investors from the new economies as to the old. It does us no advantage in our dealings with China, Brazil and India to damage the value of our access to the European market. Outside events have altered this balance; it is not a failing of our EU arrangements.

[Mr Davis]

My right hon. and learned Friend was being uncharacteristically inattentive, because that is exactly what I said: because of the growth in world trade, that is what is going on. He is exactly right that we should take a great interest in the fast growth in world trade because we are best placed, probably of most countries in the world, to take the most advantage of that. Also within his comment was the presumption, which I was about to address, that friction in our trade with the European Union—low friction, but friction—will cause enormous damage.

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[Yvette Cooper]

Let me just deal with new clause 36. If the Government are saying that they will accept it, I do not understand how that does not rip a hole right through their White Paper. New clause 36 explicitly states that we cannot collect customs and excise duties at the border on behalf of another country unless that country is going to do the same for us, but the White Paper states:

“However, the UK is not proposing that the EU applies the UK’s tariffs and trade policy at its border for goods intended for the UK.”

That is the opposite of what is said in new clause 36. Have the Government ripped up their own White Paper in the space of a couple of days? This is a chaotic approach to a matter that is so serious, and it shows a ridiculous wobbling in the face of a small group of people who I do not believe speak for the majority in this country.

[Mr Kenneth Clarke]

That phrase in the White Paper describes a perfectly sensible arrangement. If we adopt the new clause, 27 other countries will face the prospect of searching for new technology and setting up their own bureaucratic arrangements to accommodate the Brexiteers in my party. We urgently need these EU negotiations to start with partners who can rely on us to stick to a consistent line, and it could be very damaging to change the basic position on such an important matter within one week.

[Yvette Cooper]

I think that the right hon. and learned Gentleman is right on two counts. First, I think that this inconsistency and buckling in the face of objections from what I consider to be an unrepresentative group is the wrong approach. Secondly, I think that these customs arrangements are immensely important.

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[Mr Kenneth Clarke]

Mr Speaker, I am grateful to you for calling me. You may be disbelieving, but I assure you that I will do my best to speak for fewer than 12 minutes, so I shall be rather more pithy than usual.

For the last 40 years, we have achieved some remarkable transformations in the British economy. We have made ourselves one of the most attractive economies in the world for inward investment and developed an extremely competitive modern economy in both goods and services. That is not entirely attributable to the single market and the customs union, but they played a very large part. The UK is regarded by many of the great firms that invest in this country as the most business-friendly member of the EU and the most attractive place to invest in a way that gives absolutely unfettered access to the largest developed international free trade area in the world. I personally have never understood why we are seeking to detract from that. In the referendum campaign, absolutely nobody made a major feature anywhere of saying that we should withdraw from these arrangements, and certainly nobody advocated the virtues of putting in place at our ports and borders customs checks, customs procedures, tariffs, regulatory divergence and all the things that cause cost.

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[James Cartlidge (South Suffolk) (Con)]

The key concern for me is that we seem to be separating EU trade and non-EU trade, but is it not the case that so much of our non-EU exports are from foreign-owned businesses that invest in this country for export precisely because of the attraction of the single market and so on?

[Mr Clarke]

I agree and that is why I tabled, with my right hon. Friend the Member for Broxtowe (Anna Soubry), new clause 12 on a customs union. I have taken the view that, while I can see nothing wrong with that amendment, I am prepared to try to get us out of this political chaos by giving the Government White Paper a try. It is attempting to reach precisely the objectives I am arguing for: frictionless trade, with none of these procedures at the border. I cannot see what is wrong with a customs union. If anyone calls a vote on that, I shall abstain. I do not vote against amendments that I plainly agree with and that I have tabled. If a facilitated customs arrangement can be devised which achieves the same, good luck. What is most important is that, now we have the White Paper, we agree with our partners in the EU that we now negotiate on this. We have wasted two years and are facing laughable suggestions that we are going to solve all the problems now in the next three months, or possibly by Christmas if that slips. That is absolutely ludicrous. That is the uncertainty that is racking business and anybody in the country with an interest in our economic future.

Now we have actually got quite a large majority of the Cabinet to agree on this. I never thought the Cabinet we had was ever capable of agreeing on anything on this subject because of the sincerely held, completely opposite views on virtually every aspect of it. We now have most of the Cabinet behind it. If we give them a chance, lots of developments will take place. As compromise takes place, with any luck, people who actually understand the subject will be allowed to try to come up with some workable version of this that achieves the essential objectives.

I am afraid the debate that the public are listening to infuriates them as it is all about personalities. Most sensible members of the public do not have the faintest idea what we are talking about because, throughout the entire debate, no one has ever given a proper explanation to the country of what a customs union or a single market even are and what certificates of origin involve. That is inevitable. We have never debated these things before, but we owe it to the public to have a slightly more sensible debate in future.

Half the arguments used in the general debate do not understand what a trade agreement is with any other country. As things stand, if we leave with no deal, we will be the only developed country in the world that does not have a trade agreement with any other country, because it is not going to be easy to roll over all the other agreements we have with other countries, which are based on the EU. We have driven the EU to achieve all those agreements. I agree that there are problems with 28 member states negotiating, but the problems with America are far worse. All the Americans want to do is export food to us; they will not open up their public procurement or their service industries.

[Mr Djanogly]

rose—

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[Mr Clarke]

I cannot give way.

Some people want us to give up the hated European rules on animal welfare and food standards and bind ourselves to the lower American rules on food standards. So Congress—Washington—will be telling us what our standards are in those areas in future and we will be excluded from European markets and have to have a hard border with Northern Ireland and with the continent. Anyone listening to some of the opponents of the EU would think that other trade agreements simply let us have all the advantages with no obligations. All trade agreements involve mutual agreements on regulation, standards, health and safety, welfare and all the other relevant things that the parties mutually bind themselves to accept. There is not a country in the world that would accept a trade agreement of the kind that my hon. Friend the Member for North East Somerset (Mr Rees-Mogg) seems to be describing when he warms to the subject.

These are hugely important subjects, but for the past week, we have been debating them in the national debate in the most farcical and chaotic way that I can remember in my political career. The outcome is hugely important. If, one week after the Government set out a policy that I personally was prepared to give a fair wind to, I find that they are going to accept proposals such as amendment 73 and new clause 36, which promptly change that policy in a quite ridiculous way, I shall despair. The Government have only to vote against those new clauses and amendments; I am absolutely certain that the Opposition parties would not be able to think of a sensible reason why they should help my hon. Friend the Member for North East Somerset and others to get a majority in this House. We can demonstrate that they are a tiny handful of people, and their arguments are most certainly not in the national interest.

[Several hon. Members rose—]

[Mr Speaker]

Order. The new time limit will have to be no more than eight minutes.

[Mr Clarke]

I have saved us a few minutes.

[Mr Speaker]

Indeed, and we are immensely grateful.

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[Mel Stride]

Services are most certainly not less important than goods; they make up about 80% of the economy and we will retain greater freedoms in terms of being able to do deals around the world in that respect. But under this approach, the UK will apply its own tariffs and trade policy for goods intended for the UK and the UK’s tariffs and trade policy for goods intended for the EU. This option meets the UK’s strategic objectives for our future customs relationship with the EU.

[Mr Kenneth Clarke]

I congratulate my right hon. Friend on his wedding anniversary. He has mentioned the facilitated customs arrangement, which is the point of the White Paper. In describing it, the White Paper states at paragraph 17:

“However, the UK is not proposing that the EU applies the UK’s tariffs and trade policy at its border for goods intended for the UK,”

and also says we are not expecting it to be replicated in Europe. New clause 36 directly contradicts that. I gather that there are legalisms that the people who advised on the White paper no doubt did not consider when we put in the reference to reciprocity. Now my right hon. Friend is going to give us legalisms as to why it does not matter if we take reciprocity. The political point of these amendments is to destroy the White Paper and the arrangements it proposes. If he accepts them, their supporters will come back for more. Why does he not vote against them and leave them in the tiny minority in the House of Commons, that they actually represent?

[Mel Stride]

I thank my right hon. and learned Friend for that intervention. I have very little time, but I will come on to his point. The main point is that one has to read paragraph 17a of the White Paper in its entirety to grasp its full meaning, rather than take one part of it.

I will now address the amendments before us today. New clause 1 and consequential amendment 2, as spoken to initially by my right hon. Friend the Member for Broxtowe (Anna Soubry), would establish a negotiating objective for the UK to maintain its participation in the EU customs union and make the commencement of parts 1 and 2 of the Bill conditional upon the outcome of those negotiations. I have already set out that the UK leaving the EU customs union is a straightforward legal consequence of leaving the EU, so the Government must reject these amendments, as well as amendment 1.

The same applies to other amendments before us today: new clauses 1, 3, 4, 11 and 12 and their various consequential amendments, as well as amendments 8, 9, 12 and 14, but that does not mean that we will not seek to enter into a business-friendly and pragmatic arrangement that maintains trade that is as frictionless as possible between the UK and the EU27 as part of our future partnership with the EU. That is because this Government fully recognise, as was set out so eloquently by my right hon. Friend the Member for Broxtowe, the vital importance of the EU as a trading partner that in turn supports the economy and jobs and prosperity throughout the UK.

Let me now turn to new clause 36, tabled by my right hon. Friend the Member for Witham (Priti Patel), which would prevent the implementation of a new arrangement that would see HMRC accounting for duty collected by HMRC to the Government of another territory or country unless the arrangement was reciprocal. The Government have been clear in the White Paper that under their proposed facilitated customs arrangement, the UK and the EU would agree a mechanism for the remittance of relevant tariff revenue. The UK proposes a reciprocal tariff revenue formula taking account of goods destined for the UK entering via the EU and of goods destined for the EU entering via the UK. The White Paper itself states:

“The UK and the EU should agree a mechanism for the remittance of relevant tariff revenue. On the basis that this is likely to be the most robust approach, the UK proposes a tariff revenue formula, taking account of goods destined for the UK entering via the EU and goods destined for the EU entering via the UK.”

New clause 36 is consistent with the Chequers proposal and the White Paper, so the Government are content to accept it—