Brexit: Economic Forecast

Debate between Lord Callanan and Lord Strasburger

Wednesday 28th November 2018 Lords Chamber

[The Minister of State, Department for Exiting the European Union (Lord Callanan) (Con)]

My Lords, the UK will be leaving the EU on 29 March next year. Today the Government published their EU exit analysis. It is not a forecast, but focuses on the long-term impact on the UK’s economy. The analysis shows that the model White Paper scenario would support higher economic output for all sectors, compared to the model “no deal” scenario. This is the best deal on offer for protecting jobs and our economy.

[Lord Strasburger (LD)]

I thank the Minister for that Answer to my Question, if that is what he thinks it was. The Prime Minister repeatedly asserts that rejecting her deal will take us back to square one. That can mean only one thing: that we continue with our current status, which is full membership of the European Union, with all its benefits and with all our current opt-outs. Does the Minister agree with the majority of this House, the majority of the other place, and the majority now of the voting public that square one is a great place to be, and the best option for the country?

[Lord Callanan]

I am sorry if the noble Lord was disappointed with my Answer, but perhaps he has neglected the small matter of the EU withdrawal Act, which was passed by this Parliament—this House and the House of Commons—and legislated for our withdrawal from the European Union as a result of the referendum, which the Liberals also want conveniently to ignore. We are leaving the EU on 29 March next year. I hope that we will leave with this deal, but if we do not, we will leave with no deal.

Brexit: Economic Analyses

Debate between Lord Callanan and Lord Strasburger

Wednesday 24th January 2018 Lords Chamber

[Lord Strasburger]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what analyses they have carried out of the effect of the United Kingdom economy of the potential outcomes of the Brexit negotiations including (1) leaving the single market, (2) leaving the customs union, and (3) leaving the European Union with no deal, on the future trading relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union; and when they intend to publish those analyses.

[The Minister of State, Department for Exiting the European Union (Lord Callanan) (Con)]

My Lords, the Government are undertaking extensive work to support our exit negotiations and to inform our understanding of how our EU exit will affect the UK’s domestic policies and framework. Ministers have a duty not to release information that could risk undermining our negotiating position. This is a position that Parliament has endorsed.

[Lord Strasburger (LD)]

My Lords, the absurd mantra that, “No deal is better than a bad deal” has now been replaced by, “We will get the best deal for Britain”. In the event that Brexit actually happens, the best deal is bound to be worse than our current arrangements with the European Union. The only issue is: how much worse? How bad will the deal have to be for the Government finally to face down the Brexit fanatics in their own ranks and exit from Brexit, as most voters now want?

[Lord Callanan]

My Lords, I think the Brexit fanatics are on the Liberal Democrat Benches. We on this side of the House believe in democracy and that the referendum result should be implemented, and we will negotiate a full and comprehensive partnership with our European partners.