Bank of England: Monetary Policy Committee

Lord Bilimoria Excerpts

Monday 14th October 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, that is what the Bank of England Act says. The Monetary Policy Committee is operationally independent. The remit of the Monetary Policy Committee has to be set by the Governor of the Bank of England. It has to be renewed every year. It was renewed this year. The difference between this year and previous years is that the Chancellor asked the governor to look at possible methods of forward guidance which would give greater certainty to the markets about the medium-term movement of interest rates and, indeed, QE. That is exactly what the governor did, in line with the request from the Chancellor which was in line with the provisions of the Bank of England Act.

[Lord Bilimoria (CB)]

My Lords, I join in wishing the noble Lord, Lord Barnett, a very happy 90th birthday. He has asked an excellent question in that it relates to forward guidance. For a long time I have been saying that when setting interest rates the Governor of the Bank of England and the Monetary Policy Committee should look not just at inflation targeting but at the wider economy. This is excellent news. However, is it wise that the governor should tie himself down to a specific level of 7% unemployment, after which interest rates are to be raised, unless inflation is going out of control? When does the Minister think that the 7% will be achieved? Secondly, would it not have been wiser to have had a wider remit taking into account other aspects of the economy, not just inflation targeting?

[Lord Newby]

As the noble Lord says, the governor is now looking at unemployment in terms of when interest rates might change, but there is no iron rule that the moment unemployment rates hit 7%, interest rates will go up. There are three potential arguments which would mitigate against that, of which by far the most important is if the outlook for inflation was higher. As to when we might reach 7%, in August when the Bank of England published its report suggesting this, it thought it would be in the third quarter of 2016. The good news is that since then the economy has grown more quickly, and the consensus is now settling around summer 2015.