Scotland: Independence Referendum

Earl of Caithness Excerpts

Thursday 30th January 2014 Lords Chamber

[The Earl of Caithness (Con)]

My Lords, unlike my noble friend Lady Goldie, I am not 100% Scot. I certainly have Scottish blood in me but I also have quite a lot of Norwegian blood in me from the old days, as well as English, Welsh and Irish blood. I am not alone in that. Many in the United Kingdom have that combination. That is one of our strengths, being part of the United Kingdom, and it does not worry me. I passionately support Scotland when it comes to sport. If Scotland is playing England, I support Scotland, but if England is playing another country, I tend to support England.

The noble Lord, Lord Steel, said that his guru, Jo Grimond, did not like the word “devolution”. I do not like the word “independence”. Independence in Scotland has a certain ring about it that is quite attractive. If I ask people in Caithness, “Do you want independence?”, they hesitate. If I say, “Do you want separation?”, the answer is no. We are losing the argument by using the wrong word. We must make it absolutely clear that this is total and complete separation. It is the nuclear option; it is the end of the United Kingdom for ever. The consequences are horrific but we have not really touched on them today. In fact, I think that we have very little comprehension of how the markets and the rest of the world will react should Scotland vote for complete separation, because that is what it means. That is one of the messages that we have failed to get over.

Let us just go back to currency, because it is a key issue. It is no good the Government saying that it is not likely that we will have a sterling area. Come on, my Lords, let us be absolutely clear: there is going to be no sterling area. There must be no doubt. The more doubt that is sown in the minds of those who are going to vote in September, the more chance there is of there being a yes vote. The Government have to be absolutely clear. Should they decide that there might be a sterling area, can my noble and learned friend on the Front Bench confirm that the rest of us in the United Kingdom will get a referendum on whether we want it? It is no good the Scots saying, “We want a sterling area”. If the Government say, “Yes, well, in all the circumstances we will have a sterling area”, it will be absolutely right that the people in the rest of the UK decide whether they want to allow that to happen and whether they want to join that sterling area.

If there is to be no sterling area, Scotland has to have its own currency. It has to have its own central bank and it has to be credible. As the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, rightly pointed out, if Scotland wants to become a member of the EU, it has to be its own sovereign state. It has to have a track record. I think that it was the noble Lord, Lord Brennan, who pointed out that there will be a ghastly intermediate area between a country being part of the United Kingdom and it becoming a separate country. That will have huge implications for the rest of the UK, which will have to keep the whole ship steady.

As has rightly been said, if Scotland is accepted into Europe, it not only has to have its own currency but it has to be part of the Schengen agreement. That will automatically put border controls on the boundary between Scotland and England, and that will have an effect on tourism. The noble Baroness, Lady Liddell, was absolutely right to say that tourism is hugely important. When people come to the UK, they are thrilled to be able to arrive in London, come up to Edinburgh and then travel on to the far north. However, they will not be able to do that quite so easily. The Americans are not great travellers at the best of times. If life is made difficult for them, tourism in Scotland will suffer, although it will not suffer so much in the rest of the UK.

What will happen if Scotland is refused entry into Europe, as is highly likely? There will be a country to the north of us which is totally separate from the rest of the UK; it will not be part of Europe and it will have its own currency. There will be huge implications which we have not thought through and have not yet assessed. That is potentially dangerous. Should Scotland become part of the EU, I do not think that that will affect the rest of the UK very much. At the moment we have 29 votes on a qualified majority basis and we will continue to have 29 votes because we will then have a population of about the same size as that of Italy. Scotland will have about seven votes—about the same as Finland. It looks likely that the top four countries will remain with 29 votes, although Germany should probably have a few more. However, I do not think that that would have severe implications for the rest of the UK.

I need my noble and learned friend on the Front Bench to quash another myth. Yesterday, it was put to me, “Don’t worry, Malcolm. We’re going to try independence but, if it fails, we’ll always come back into the UK”. No, my Lords. Will my noble and learned friend make it absolutely clear that once Scotland says yes, that is it? There can be no situation in which Scotland can come in through the back door.

The union of the past 300 years has led to peace, prosperity, wealth and influence for all of us in these sceptred isles. It is a wonderful opportunity that we have grabbed, and every country has grabbed it. The Northern Irish, the Welsh, the Scots and the English have always put people into the mix to make this country great. All that is threatened and there will be huge ramifications for the rest of the United Kingdom. My noble friend Lord Lang, when introducing the debate, said that, whatever happens, we have to have new constitutional arrangements. I totally support him on that. We need to work very hard in the future to make a stronger and better union for the next 300 years.