Welfare Benefits Up-rating Bill

Baroness Morgan of Drefelin Excerpts

Tuesday 19th March 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Kirkwood of Kirkhope]

The remedy would simply be that if 3% was breached, then the clauses in the Bill fall and there would be the default position of an annual uprating process. It would be at the Secretary of State’s discretion with the usual provisions of Section 150 of the Social Security Administration Act 1992. It would be taken year by year and would say that inflation was forging ahead in an unforeseen way. For myself, I would listen to an argument that said that we should stick to 1% on costs shown in those circumstances, but if 3% was breached we would go back to the status quo. That does not have a cost at all.

The noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, and I have been doing government uprating statements for 30 years together and I have never known a Government not get an uprating statement that they wanted if they had a majority. That is what I think would happen in these circumstances. However, the Secretary of State would be obliged to come back and say to both Houses that the circumstances were not what he had anticipated or what the Office of Budget Responsibility had calculated and that therefore there would be a chance for reconsideration. That is all I ask.

In fact, Clause 1(5) and Clause 2(4) of the Bill give the Treasury power to protect itself from the downside. These clauses say that if inflation falls below 1% it will not admit the full 1% uprating and will reserve the right to adjust it. Yet there is no limit to which the Treasury will allow inflation to increase before it comes back and argues its case in Parliament one way or the other. There is a 50:50 chance of this happening. I believe in my heart of hearts that the Government would respond to that. I do not believe it would be at all conscionable to leave 3.5% or 4% inflation with these 1% caps for the two years in this Bill.

We need more than that. We need some inflation-proofing and protection for recipients of benefits in the two years covered by the Bill if inflation races ahead. That is the burden of the argument. It is no more and no less than that. I do not think that it would be attacked on the grounds of financial privilege. It has no direct effect, as I see it, on deficit reduction. I am content that the Government get £3 billion in savings, but not content that they get £5 billion or £7 billion, because that is not what the Bill is designed to do. I argue in this amendment that there is no protection in particular for low-income families. I hope that my noble friend will give me some reassurance about what the Government will do in these eventualities. If he is not prepared to accept this amendment, I may well be tempted to test the opinion of the House. I beg to move.

[Baroness Morgan of Drefelin]

My Lords, I am not an economist. I declare an interest as chief executive of a cancer research charity. My concerns are similar to those voiced by the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood. The Bill locks in the 1% and does not contain a very important review provision. I am sure that my amendment is so anodyne that the Minister will say either that it is unnecessary or that he will accept it.

For that reason, I will be brief. It is important once more to challenge the myth that disabled people will be protected from the measures in the Bill when that is so clearly not the case. Let us remember that, by 2015, in excess of 40,000 cancer patients will be claiming ESA. It is the main benefit claimed by cancer patients, as we have already heard. For those cancer patients in the support group, only a proportion, the support component, of what they receive, will be protected, while their core payment will rise by only 1%, as my noble friend Lord Low mentioned.

Overall, cancer patients in the support group will see their ESA payments rise by only 1.4%, rather than by inflation, and Macmillan Cancer Support has estimated that, by 2015, cancer patients will be £138 worse off each year than if they had received the 2.2% rise which could have been expected with the CPI level as was in September 2012. I cite the £138 figure, but I am conscious that we do not yet know the true effect of the Bill. That figure shows how far ESA will fall behind inflation if the consumer prices index were to remain at the September 2012 level of 2.2%. However, it has now risen to 2.7%. If, as we have heard, inflation were to rise to 3% over the next three years, the loss to cancer patients and others in the ESA support group would be even greater. The actual impact on cancer patients and others supported by those payments is just as uncertain as the level of inflation itself.

In its current form, the Bill leaves no flexibility to protect vulnerable groups such as cancer patients if there is a significant rise in inflation over the next three years. For that reason, I support the amendment moved by the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood. I fully expect the Minister to say that he will accept my amendment or that it is unnecessary because it is a matter of course that there will be a review by the Social Security Advisory Committee if we have such a rise in inflation. I very much look forward to hearing the Minister’s remarks about how the Government aim to continue to protect cancer patients as much as possible.

[Lord King of Bridgwater]

I should have asked my noble Lord friend Lord Kirkwood, this; he is an expert on uprating. The noble Baroness said that this is an anodyne amendment. I am not an expert on how uprating works, but does her amendment provide that if inflation is above 3%, the Bill does not apply and it will then be up to the Secretary of State to decide what increase he tries to get through both Houses of Parliament, which could in fact be 1%, if the economic situation is as it is? So it does not automatically provide that the current rate of inflation has to be included. Have I got that right?

[Baroness Morgan of Drefelin]

That is correct. As normal, the House would receive an annual uprating SI, there would be a debate in the normal way and, if the Government of the day wanted to propose a particular uprating, there would be the normal impact assessment. The noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood, may want to clarify his amendment, but my amendment states that if we have a significant increase in inflation, we need the experts to conduct a review to say what will be the impact on benefit recipients.