The Role and Capabilities of the UK Armed Forces, in the Light of Global and Domestic Threats to Stability and Security

Baroness Jolly Excerpts

Tuesday 15th September 2015 Grand Committee

[Baroness Jolly (LD)]

My Lords, I add my thanks to those of other noble Lords to the Minister for bringing this debate to Grand Committee today. I too shall be posing some questions for the Minister and I am quite happy for him to write to me, otherwise I think that we shall be here for quite a long time listening to many interesting responses, which perhaps will turn into a pamphlet.

Really, this has been a Janus debate: we are reflecting backwards and best-guessing forwards, while of course looking at current and previous operations. For the most part, the role of our Armed Forces is determined by the SDSR, as are their capabilities. Much has changed since the last SDSR in 2010. That was an austerity review that cut 17,000 personnel and gave us Future Force 2020, with a programme to recruit reservists in their place. It reduced the surface fleet and, through the carrier programme being left in the air, has left the Royal Navy without a carrier strike capability until 2020. As many noble Lords have also said, it also axed the Nimrod programme.

Later this year, the Government will publish their long-awaited SDSR 2015 and it will tell us a lot about their thinking. It should indicate how the Government want to balance hard power with soft power. Our use of soft power has been very effective for many years and we need to ensure that we retain our links and influences with European, transatlantic and Commonwealth allies and partners. The SDSR should interweave policy on defence with policies on foreign affairs, home affairs and, indeed, international development. Back in 2010, the Arab spring looked optimistic. I wholeheartedly agree with the noble Lord, Lord King, about the use of the word “Daesh”. IS is not a state and so talk of “IS” gives it some sort of legitimacy; it has no legitimacy whatever. Daesh was on no one’s radar. Russia had not invaded Crimea, China had not started sabre rattling on its eastern seaboard, and few had heard of Ebola. The mass movement of refugees on the scale that we have seen in the past month or so had not happened since the 1940s. Cyber attacks and the use of drones have brought a new approach to warfare in the 21st century.

While I listened to the noble Lord, Lord King, I reflected with a certain amount of irony on the fact that we saw the Arab spring unveiling on social media such as Twitter and Facebook, and the great excitement that we all felt as we watched it almost 24 hours a day on television as well. The irony is that it was social media that brought the Arab spring to us but it is social media that has allowed Daesh to gain so much power. It is very important that we understand it, and we need to know how to use it ourselves.

We know that events will happen that we did not predict, as well as some that we might. I am concerned that the Chancellor may have been a zealous overseer of this review. My guess is that, but for some minute fine-tuning, it is almost finished. We cannot ignore the costs of defence, but neither should the Treasury totally dictate defence policy. There has to be a balance. It is true that in the Budget the Chancellor guaranteed defence spending at a welcome 2% of GDP, and he has also guaranteed an annual growth of 5% until the end of the Parliament. But what is not yet clear, and I join many noble Lords who have said this in the debate today, is how much he will use the NATO flexibilities within this envelope to spend outside the traditional defence spend. Will the Minister explain the Government’s thinking on what proportion of the 2% will be on MoD expenditure and what on pensions, DfID and other related areas?

As an aside, the defence budget is a very complex one to put together. There are noble Lords here who have far more experience and understanding of that than I, but I wonder whether a longer period for budget planning might be better—say, a 10-year budget rather than the current five years.

We will see in the 2015 SDSR whether the Government have taken the opportunity to define their approach to foreign policy, from which our defence policy and the future debate should flow. Will it devote sufficient attention to the UK’s place in the world? As my noble friend Lady Smith of Newnham, said, without a clear vision of where we want to be, or of the role we aspire to play and with whom, the SDSR risks looking at tactics rather than strategy.

We have heard in the debate much despair about the reduction of our maritime patrol capacity. The Minister gave an assurance at Question Time during the summer that the current capacity is adequate for our search and rescue obligations, but is it sustainable? As we have already heard, our shoreline is more than 10,000 miles long and our search and rescue area covers 1 million square miles. Moreover, what about its other military and strategic roles and functions? Are the Government confident that we are not at risk? Might this be an area that will be revisited in the forthcoming SDSR?

All the fancy kit in the world is useless if we do not have people who are trained and ready to use it. I am particularly concerned about the national aversion to STEM subjects and the shortage of engineers at all levels and in all the services. That might impact on our capability and the effectiveness of our services. Is the Minister able to offer any reassurance on this?

Future Force 2020 proposed reductions in the regular force balanced by huge increases in the reserves. Recruitment to the reserves has been sluggish at best. Can the Minister confirm whether we now have the balance right? Are all the training programmes for reservists in place? Are large employers more involved and being more helpful than was the case a year or so ago? This strategy was not without risk and should be kept under regular review. I echo the call of the noble Baronesses, Lady Fookes and Lady Hodgson of Abinger: service personnel and their families need to be valued, as do our veterans. If we are asking fewer people to accept longer deployments, that can take a toll on their effectiveness and on the well-being of their loved ones. The Armed Forces covenant should ensure that no service personnel or their families are placed at a disadvantage as a result of them serving their country—and similarly for veterans. Will the Minister explain how the Government, which in the last Parliament ensured a wide take-up of the covenant, are now monitoring its implementation and effectiveness?

At the beginning of the Summer Recess, along with the noble Baroness, Lady Buscombe, I was fortunate enough to spend a week in Portsmouth with the Armed Forces Parliamentary Scheme. It is worth noting that all the women Peers taking part in the debate today either have been or are currently members of the scheme, which means that we are serious. During our week we visited ships and training facilities, shared in strategic briefings from senior naval officers and spoke to junior ratings and all those in between. They were frank and optimistic about the next defence review. They want a period of stability and certainty because change is hard to manage and difficult to implement. Along with their colleagues in the Army and the RAF, they are willing to put their lives on the line for us, so we owe it to them to offer the support they deserve.