Draft National Policy Statement for National Networks
(10 years, 7 months ago)
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Lord Berkeley
To resolve that this House considers that the Proposed National Policy Statement for National Networks is not fit for purpose because it makes use of the Department for Transport’s forecasts for road traffic growth to establish the need for nationally significant road projects, whereas those forecasts are likely to prove unreliable as travel behaviour changes over the next twenty years in the light of environmental and technological advancements; and because it fails to recognise the need for an integrated approach to planning national and local transport networks, and in particular the role that new railway developments can play in supporting economic growth.
Lord Berkeley (Lab)
My Lords, this is a slightly odd way of starting a debate, when the national policy statement is after all a government document and when the Minister has not had a chance to explain to the House what it is about—after which I could have said what I like and do not like about it. However, I have had many discussions with the clerks on this issue and am told that is this is a slightly new procedure coming out of the Planning Act 2008 and the Localism Act 2011, which requires both Houses to consider the national policy statement, so there we are.
I shall not go into great detail on what it contains as I am sure that the Minister will do that, to the extent that she wants to and thinks that the House needs her to. I am also not going to divide the House, which apparently I could, as I do not see any point. My understanding is that the Secretary of State has to lay the NPSs to both departments and they get debated in both Houses. The Secretary of State then considers representations. As noble Lords probably know, the House of Commons Transport Committee reported yesterday on this, so presumably it will be debating it some time in the future. Then the Secretary of State will look at all the comments and lay a revised version before both Houses, although I think only the House of Commons is required to approve it. If the Minister thinks I have that wrong, I hope that she will correct me.
I am very pleased to be able to discuss this NPS today. I generally support and very much welcome it, as it has been a long time coming. I do not want to delay it but I have a few concerns. My first is to do with rail freight, so I declare an interest as chairman of the Rail Freight Group. The NPS is particularly important when one is seeking planning consent for rail developments—these rail freight interchanges. Interchanges for freight are rather like stations for passengers; if there are no stations, you will not get any passengers on the trains, so you need these interchanges. Some of them are big and are used, effectively, by all the big retailers. They cost a lot of money and getting planning permission to go ahead is sometimes contentious. However, they are essential to growth. If one looks at the Network Rail freight market study there has been growth of 75% in this traffic between 2004 and 2011, and there is a further likelihood of doubling the traffic in 20 years, so these things are needed.
The key, of course, is that this draft NPS should set out a clear case on a national basis. It would be helpful if there could be a bit more granularity in it, so that the inspectors can satisfy themselves of the need for a particular case. I should like to see a few comparatively small changes in the final draft. They include: reinstating part of the text from section 4.2 of the current interchange policy guidance, which provides greater qualitative descriptions of the different levels of needs across the regions; clarifying that there needs to be a network of such facilities across the UK and an expectation of having more than one in one location; and linking the NPS more closely to Network Rail’s freight market study and any successor document.
That leads me on to the biggest issue, which is to do with forecasting. I shall come to the linking of forecasting between road and rail traffic. However, the department’s road forecasts have been much criticised over the years as a basis for predicting and providing. They are seen as inaccurate, often through overestimating road traffic growth over the past 20 years. I think that the national road traffic forecasts from 1989 for last year showed that there would be a 37% growth in traffic, when actually it has been 13%. There are many other things that I find wrong with this part of the document. It is a question of what the key drivers of potential traffic growth are. It has been said that population growth has not been uniformly distributed in recent years and that this has contributed to the observed drop in traffic versus forecasts, because apparently more growth occurs in urban areas with lower levels of car use. However, this has been going on for 20 years.
Is economic growth assumed to be closely linked to traffic? I do not believe it is. There is a clear decoupling in a lot of evidence, even from before the recession. Then there is the fall in the cost of driving, which is used as an argument for the growth in traffic. However, there are some highly uncertain assumptions to do with low-emission vehicles and the price of oil. These are very vulnerable to change and have contributed to the great difference in growth that I have just cited.
The other issue is the need to consider other modes compared with road—rail, cycling and walking—and to get some relationship between these and the policies of this Government or the next, such as encouraging cycling. Do the forecasts take into account health issues such as air pollution? I think that the European Commission has again started infraction proceedings against the British Government in respect of the air pollution in London and, as we all know, there is a big issue about the need to reduce emissions, particularly from diesel motors. There is the issue of the modal shift of passenger and freight from road to rail or cycling.
Are the values of time correct? I have been looking at the pedestrian crossing issue. When pedestrians press the button to get a green light to cross the road, there is usually a 10-second or 20-second delay. Why should they have to wait when the cars do not? That is a small detail but it all adds up to a disproportionate priority given to cars. There is a similar issue regarding cycling.
Noble Lords may know that a company called DHL, one of the biggest logistics companies here and worldwide, is now looking urgently at the issue of city-centre deliveries. It reckons that its white vans will not be able to cope with everyone ordering things on the internet and having them delivered to their offices because they go home so late, or whatever. DHL has come up with many solutions, including a bicycle that has a motorised trailer; the trailer pushes the bike along and stops it when it wants to put the brake on. These are creative ideas and I am not sure that they are all taken into account.
Have the corridors been looked at? We have the classic case of the west coast main line corridor with the M1, the M6 and HS2, but were the railway and road forecasts considered as one? I do not think they were.
I also hope that the other policy consideration concerns short journeys. Do we really need to drive children half a mile to school, or go shopping over the same distance, if we can walk or even cycle? It has to be safe and convenient, but we are miles behind many other European cities in this area. Again, I am not sure that that is taken into account in the forecasts.
The Transport Committee supported much of what I have said in its report yesterday. I shall not repeat it all now but it is worth reading because the committee took a lot of evidence from, I think, about 400 people. Both the committee and the CPRE felt very strongly about the need to consider the impact of low carbon, which I just mentioned, on the demand for growth in road traffic, rather than building ourselves out of a recession. It states:
“The Government is seeking to accommodate increasing demand for roads by building more infrastructure rather than seeking to manage demand”.
It is interesting how many people are now talking about the need to manage demand. Whether that is taken into account in the forecast, I do not have a clue, but it should be because if we do not do so then we will be in big trouble. The committee also repeats its recommendations in the Better Roads report, which also came out yesterday, that the department should seek to integrate planning for passenger and freight transport by route or region, rather than doing each one individually.
Finally, the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport’s interesting new document, Vision 2035, also refers to the need for demand management. It states:
“The logistics and transport sectors should take the lead in promoting a reduction in both freight and passenger traffic by supporting alternatives to travel, reduced commuting distances and shorter, more localised supply chains”.
That goes a long way beyond the forecasting, but it is part of the forecast and it should be reflected in the NPSs.
I very much welcome this NPS. It has been a long time coming, as I have said, but it will be very helpful. There are many challenges and concerns, which I hope the Government will address. We talked about forecasting, modelling, cross-modal issues and a degree of localism linking national policies and local policies. There needs to be more consideration of climate change, but I hope the Government will eventually get away from “predict and provide” in the forecasts.
Ministers may say that the forecasts are only advisory. That is true, but some Ministers—I do not include the present Minister or any of her colleagues in this criticism—often use them to support ministerial wishes and to object to other proposals. They are used as a useful basis for advising Ministers, and I hope that they can be improved to achieve that in a more equitable way. I beg to move.
Lord Bradshaw (LD)
My Lords, while we are debating the improvements to the national networks, I first ask whether we are really certain that we are maintaining properly the roads we already have. By maintaining, I mean structural maintenance on the secondary network and something rather better than the routine filing and refilling of potholes, which is now the case. This may appear a trivial problem, but in fact a lot of money is now being spent in this way, and I doubt whether much of it is being used wisely. Will the Minister give us an assurance that this problem is recognised and explain what is being done to stop the decline in the structural condition of our secondary roads and the declining safety standards on other roads because many of these potholes are uncomfortable for car owners but lethal to motorcyclists and cyclists?
The next issue I wish to address is the appraisal methodology for investment in the new and upgraded national networks. I believe that far too much weight is given to small savings of time, which the noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, mentioned. Small savings of time are unpredictable. They are therefore of less value and achieve great importance in the appraisals only by adding vast numbers of small savings of time together. You end up with a big number, but it does not mean that the people who are experiencing it are actually benefiting.
The pressing problems which face the country are those posed by climate change, air quality and sustainability. I would like to be assured that these important features are given proper weight because they are serious. The noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, mentioned air quality in London, but there are a lot more British cities which are suffering from harmful levels of pollution.
The noble Lord, Lord Berkley, has already said that there is considerable doubt about the quality of the Government’s forecasts of road traffic growth. I submit that there should be much more emphasis on the regeneration effects of improving infrastructure, access to jobs, the creation of jobs, access between housing and employment—always considering safety and the environment. We need a more holistic approach to appraisal and the HS2 taskforce and those involved in Crossrail have already drawn the department’s attention to the fact that there are many benefits which are not being captured by the appraisal systems which are currently in force.
A whole industry has developed in applying cost-benefit techniques using these small values of time. These, of course, are underpinned in the Treasury Green Book, and a suite of programmes known collectively as WebTAG by the Department for Transport. Can the Minister tell the House whether the present appraisal methodology is being reviewed? Is this review quite independent of those people intimately involved in the current system? While it is claimed that the present system is “internationally recognised”—whatever that means—there are plenty of examples where strategic national interests seem to be more important in other countries.
The use of stated preference techniques to put a money value on the time savings is, at best, controversial as, of course, no money changes hands. The stated preference techniques derive from employing consultants to go around asking people in the street how they would rate saving two minutes or 30 seconds on their journey. People give actually rather exaggerated answers to these sorts of questions because there is no transition taking place. It is all very well to ask people, “Would you like these goodies?”, but when you come down to hard cash, they might be a little bit more interested.
Speaking as an economist rather than as a politician, there is only one way to evaluate the time savings experienced by actual road users and that is through a system of road pricing. This need not involve added expense for the average road user as the charges could be set on a cost-neutral basis. However, it would be a useful tool for dealing with peak and off-peak travel. It need not affect rural or remote areas, but would almost certainly reduce traffic volumes at very busy times on roads such as the M25. It simply will not do for those who are against road pricing to say that the technology is not available. It is available and it is used in many other countries. I know that such of the industry as is in this country feels that it is being denied the opportunity of demonstrating how effective the system would be.
It also seems odd that variable ticket pricing is used by the railways, buses and airlines, charging different prices so that they spread the load; paragraph 2.32 of the consultation document refers to this. In fact, my secretary upstairs rejoiced yesterday that she had been able to get a Megabus ticket all the way from Hull to London for £1. It is not thanks to Brian Souter’s generosity that she got that ticket, but because in most of the transport industry there is tremendous interest in market pricing. The only honest way to deal with this is to start a system of road pricing here.
There are two ways of dealing with increased traffic volumes. We can either build more infrastructure or use intelligent ways of managing demand. I very much take the point made by the noble Lord, Lord Berkeley. Very short journeys such as driving the children to school or going to the shops are the ones that cause congestion in cities and towns. If people choose to drive in the peak hour, they should pay more money than people who stagger their journeys. I do not understand the Government’s political cowardice and why this scheme is not put forward.
Nobody can deny that some road schemes urgently require attention. I am not saying that no road scheme can be good; some roads need to be dealt with very urgently. I will give as an example the A1, which runs through Northumberland. That has been the object of constant pressure from my honourable friend the Member for Berwick-upon-Tweed for the whole of his parliamentary career. I checked this morning, and nothing has happened. Sometimes I wonder whether it is because that road is in the north of England and well away from London that it gets no proper consideration. Again, the noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, drew attention to the grave dangers of slipping back into the discredited predict-and-provide policies, while nothing is done about managing and spreading demand. The crucial issue of air quality is devalued in this document as it stands, because apparently it fails to be taken into account in the planning application system that is outlined there.
To brush the issue of air quality or any environmental issue aside so that we can get on and build more roads is the negation of proper policy formation. There are also many areas where the air quality is appalling. I will take Bath as an example. The geography of that city is not conducive to having winds blowing around the place. The air quality around Bath does huge damage to people’s health and to the buildings of that world heritage city. Any scheme to improve road circulation by linking up the A46 and the A36 on some sort of eastern bypass for Bath will deliver huge benefits to the people who live in that city as regards congestion and pollution. Those things should be properly taken into account in the way appraisals are done.
Of course, when investment in roads is considered, the various transport alternatives to road-building, such as increased use of trains and buses, should be carefully evaluated. That point is brought out strongly in the 6,000 or so responses that were sent by bodies to the consultation. Can the Minister assure the House that those 6,000 representations will be considered and not brushed away as if they are trivia that can be forgotten?
The east-west links on the railway should be given attention, in such cases as the projection of the Javelin service from Kent past St Pancras to Milton Keynes and beyond; the electrification of the Gospel Oak to Barking railway line; the reinstatement of the railway from Oxford to Bedford and Cambridge; and the completion of the electrified link between Harwich and Felixstowe to the east and west coast main lines. I still hope that the Minister will have something to say fairly soon on the evidence that I have submitted to her on the Lincoln to Nottingham line. Then of course there is the substantial upgrading of the various trans-Pennine links. It is time that we really thought about the fact that not everything goes to London. There are lots of cross-flows, which are not catered for by railways. I pay tribute to some of the things that this Government have done, but there is a lot more to do.
As there is now available a bi-modal diesel and electric heavy freight locomotive, which can work on and off the electrified network, there is an urgent need, first, to do more work on the electrified network and to encourage the rail freight industry to invest in those locomotives very quickly, because they represent an alternative to the very heavy lorries that spill out over the country from our ports. This weekend, on a visit to a local historic site, I was again conscious of a continued noise from the nearby motorway; it did not stop—it just went on, and it was quite loud. While we are very critical of noise from railways and aircraft, in both those modes operators are acutely aware of the need to reduce noise. In fact, I read in the paper this morning that Network Rail is in touch with Japanese consultants to help them reduce noise. Can the Minister tell the House what is currently being done to reduce the noise from road traffic, which affects far more people, and whether road noise is taken into account in any appraisals, which obviously means attention to road surfaces and tyres? In making appraisals, is it made clear that a choice can be made between cheaper road surfaces, such as concrete, and quiet surfaces, such as whisper asphalt? That may seem like a detail, but lots of people live alongside motorways, and this is a constant bone of contention. The difference between concrete and whisper asphalt is enormous, as we found on the A34 when I was in the county council in Oxford.
Has my noble friend also given consideration to the situation whereby the public sector invests in new infrastructure yet the benefits are realised by the private sector in the value of property? How is that sort of economic value taken into consideration in assessing schemes? It is clearly of some economic value to somebody. I am aware of no methods whereby the public sector can get hold of any money unless there is a voluntary contribution or, occasionally, a supplementary rate is levied on the beneficiaries.
In the section about sustainable transport, in paragraphs 3.13 and 3.14, buses are not mentioned but are obviously the major contributor. But the Minister knows full well that there is much disquiet in the bus industry, especially over the level of support given for the reimbursement of concessionary fares. This may upset a lot of people like me, but the bus services that are being withdrawn are used by people to access work and hospitals. These are ordinary people who are prepared to pay their fares, but they are not enough to keep the bus service running. Can the Minister say whether some work is going on somewhere to judge the fairness of this, otherwise I am sure that it will be proceeded against in the courts and will end up in Brussels, unless by then the noble Lord, Lord Pearson of Rannoch, has got his way and we are not affiliated anymore?
The issue of road safety must not be forgotten. Neither should we console ourselves by pointing out that we have a better road safety record than many other countries, as I have often heard. No other transport operator would dare to be as complacent as the road sector given that lots of people are killed and seriously injured each year due to poor road safety. Improving national infrastructure should not depend on whether a number of people derive a small benefit. It should take into account, but not as a sideline, impacts on the environment, public health and the strategic path that this Government are following.
Lord Marlesford (Con)
My Lords, I wish to say a few words in the gap. I declare my interests as in the register.
Frankly, I thought this was a rather unimpressive document. I learnt the little bit I know about transport at the feet of the great Ernest Marples, who was arguably one of the greatest Ministers of Transport this country has ever had. I emphasise that I absolutely agree that we need a strategic road network, as that is the way to protect nationally designated landscapes. Having a proper strategic road network protects sensitive rural and urban areas from vehicles that would otherwise try to use them because there is nowhere else to go.
It is extraordinary that my county of Suffolk does not have a place in the strategy at all. Indeed, if the Minister opens her copy of the report at page 84, she will see that, in order to fit the map of England on to the page, the whole of the coastal area of Suffolk has been cut off. That is the most sensitive area of Suffolk. There can be no bigger indicator of Whitehall indifference to those of us who live in East Anglia than that.
The previous Government detrunked the A12 north of Ipswich and therefore, theoretically, it is not part of a strategic network. That was a great mistake because the A12 from the M25 to Lowestoft should be part of England’s strategic network. The proposal to construct the Sizewell C nuclear power station is particularly important in this regard and I wish to raise a very serious question on that with the Minister. The French company EDF—the designated builder—published an outline of a short new road that would slash through the attractive Suffolk village of Farnham, and proposed a huge lorry park south of Wickham Market because the current road cannot take its lorries. These ideas are quite unacceptable to local people.
I should emphasise that I am the president of the Suffolk Preservation Society, as recorded in the register, which is why I care so much about Suffolk. Plans were drawn up for a four-village bypass in 1996—the four villages being Marlesford, where I live and farm, Little Glemham, Stratford St Andrew and Farnham. They were endorsed by the inspector after a full public inquiry. This bypass is urgently needed, quite apart from the needs of Sizewell C. It should be part of the upgrading of the A12 and be brought into the strategic road network.
EDF is now having pre-application discussions with officers of the Suffolk Coastal District Council, as it is entitled to do, but has said that the details of its plan are commercially confidential. That really is nonsense. The elected councillors are being kept in the dark with regard to what is being proposed. That is the antithesis of democracy and not what councils are about. Officers who work for councils work for councillors; they are not there to make decisions. It is councillors who matter. I must not speak for much longer as I am making my speech in the gap, but EDF must not be allowed to publish its formal application and claim that it has already consulted the planning authority and obtained agreement to what it proposes. I hope that the Minister will reassure me that the concerns of Suffolk will be taken fully into account and that the Government will put Suffolk back on the map.
Lord Rosser (Lab)
My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Marlesford, for pointing out that the Department for Transport has wiped out Lowestoft. Looking at the map, I think that that extends also to part of Norfolk as Great Yarmouth seems to have suffered the same fate. I hope the department will realise that those two places still exist and manage to produce another map.
I welcome this opportunity to discuss both the draft national policy statement for national networks and the concerns raised by my noble friend Lord Berkeley, including those related to the accuracy of the traffic forecasts and the assumptions behind them. I do not know whether the fact that we are speaking in a not-exactly-packed Chamber reflects a lack of interest in this issue or simply the fact that this is the last business on a Thursday with always the prospect beforehand that that could have meant being here until 7 pm.
As well as the draft national policy statement, it has also been helpful to see the House of Commons Transport Committee report on it, which was published yesterday. The draft statement published by the Department for Transport consultation sets out the policy against which the Secretary of State will make decisions on applications for development consent for nationally significant infrastructure projects on the strategic road and rail network. It is the second such policy statement, the first having covered ports, and covers England only.
The Planning Act 2008 gives Select Committees a formal role in the process by which national policy statements are agreed, because recommendations by a Select Committee must be addressed by the Secretary of State before the national policy statement comes into force. The Select Committee can also request a debate on the document before it receives final parliamentary approval. The Transport Select Committee has apparently indicated that it intends to do just that.
The Select Committee has made a number of detailed recommendations that it says are aimed at making the document clearer and more useful. Presumably, the Minister will say that the Secretary of State will consider those recommendations. The draft policy statement states that our road and rail networks are already under considerable pressure and indicates that, on the road network, it is estimated that around 16% of all travel time in 2010 was spent delayed in traffic. Road traffic is forecast to increase by 30% by 2030 and by more than 40% by 2040; and without action, congestion and crowding will constrain the economy and reduce quality of life. The factors leading to the forecast increase are stated to be increased growth, a rising population—up by 11 million between 2010 and 2035—and a fall in the cost of fuel.
The draft statement states that, without action, the proportion of travel time spent delayed in traffic is forecast to increase from 16% to 24% by 2040, amounting to a 150% increase in the number of working days lost to congestion each year from 40 million to 100 million. Can the Minister tell us—if not in her response today then perhaps in a letter—how those calculations have been made and the assumptions behind them? They are not immediately obvious.
The strategic road network to which the draft policy statement relates includes only trunk roads and motorways in England where the Secretary of State is the traffic authority. The development of local roads will be nationally significant infrastructure projects only if an order has been made under Section 35 of the Planning Act 2008 designating such a development as a nationally significant infrastructure project. Does that mean that the Secretary of State would seek to use this national policy statement as the primary basis for making decisions on development consent applications for nationally significant infrastructure projects on the strategic road network without regard to the impact on local roads or the plans of the traffic authority for those local roads when, particularly in urban areas, the traffic and transport authority may well be pursuing measures to manage demand rather than pursuing the apparent aims of this draft policy statement, which some have suggested, including in this debate, is rather closer to the “predict and provide” policy for roads that was abandoned in the 1990s? I hope the Minister will be able to respond to that point in a few minutes.
I ask that point in the context that this policy statement gives no details of the extent or location of nationally significant projects on the strategic road network but clearly indicates that new and additional roads are anticipated, as well as increases in the capacity of existing trunk roads and motorways. As the Transport Select Committee put it, the Government are seeking to accommodate increasing demand for roads by building more infrastructure rather than seeking to manage demand. Perhaps the Minister can say something about the projected extent and mileage of new trunk roads and motorways against which we should be considering the content, significance and impact of this draft national policy statement and its traffic forecasts.
As I understand it, one of the key purposes of having the draft national policy statement is to speed up the decision-making process that we often go through before major projects can proceed. However, the concern that has been expressed in a number of circles is that this national policy statement in relation to roads is also about laying down criteria, or lack of specific criteria, which would make it considerably more unlikely than is the case at the moment that any scheme, or part of any scheme, could be rejected since the key overriding, all-important factor appears to be the need to provide the increases in road capacity to meet the Government’s forecast of the increase in road traffic. The draft policy statement states:
“In their current state, without development, the national networks will act as a constraint to sustainable economic growth, quality of life and wider environmental objectives. The Government has therefore concluded that there is a compelling need for development of the national networks. The Examining Authority and the Secretary of State should therefore start its assessment of applications for infrastructure covered by this NPS on that basis”.
I should like the Minister to look at nationally significant infrastructure projects on the strategic road network over, say, the past 15 years and say which were changed, rejected or not proceeded with in the first place under the criteria then applicable but which the department now feels would have been given clearance under the criteria laid down in this draft national policy statement, to which I have just referred. Perhaps the Minister could give some examples of the kinds of schemes that would not be acceptable when they have to be judged against the statement in this draft NPS, which I quoted a few moments ago, that:
“In their current state, without development, the national networks will act as a constraint to sustainable economic growth, quality of life and wider environmental objectives”.
What protection, for example, will there be for our national parks? What scope or requirement will there be to consider and assess other options or proposals rather than those being put forward, and what weight will be given to the considerations mentioned by my noble friend Lord Berkeley and the noble Lord, Lord Bradshaw? On that score, I certainly share the concerns expressed by the noble Lord, Lord Bradshaw, about the impact of road noise on those living in the surrounding areas.
On the railways, the draft statement forecasts welcome continuing growth in railway passenger and freight traffic, although it does not cover the biggest project of all—namely, HS2, for which there is a separate Bill. However, it says:
“High speed rail would offer the opportunity for a shift to rail from air and road, by delivering improved connectivity between major conurbations and economic centres through improved journey times”.
Few would disagree with that, but it would be helpful if the Minister could say how the current lack of any proposed link between HS2 and HS1 is in line with the Government’s stated objective, to which I have just referred.
There is a need to ensure that rail investment is not confined to London and the south-east. Improved rail links help to stimulate growth and are a factor taken into account by businesses in deciding where to locate, relocate or expand, and that applies equally outside London and the south-east.
The draft statement refers to relatively modest rail infrastructure interventions being able to deliver significant capacity benefits but—unless I am mistaken, and I may be—it does not appear to make a reference to the reopening of stations despite saying in paragraph 2.25 that,
“the railway must offer a safe and reliable route to work, facilitate increases in both business and leisure travel, support regional and local public transport to connect communities with public services, with workplaces and with each other”.
There is, for example, a campaign by residents of Saltford, in Somerset, to reopen their railway station on the line between Bath and Bristol, a campaign which our local party and its candidate are supporting. Perhaps the Minister could say what assistance this draft policy statement will be to them in pursuing their campaign to improve accessibility for local people and help to take cars off the road.
The draft statement, as my noble friend Lord Berkeley said, refers in some detail to strategic rail freight interchanges and projected increases in rail freight, which I am sure we all welcome. However, although I am not sure that I am right, I think that the first mention of the word “bus” does not appear until page 25 of the draft statement, despite the fact that the report deals with roads. The statement rightly refers to rail freight interchanges but says nothing in the context of investment in roads, the national coach network, bus services, bus lanes, rail/bus interchanges and the role of the bus network in taking traffic off our roads. What is the Government’s position on bus and coach travel in the context of this or any other likely draft national policy statements?
I appreciate that this is a draft document and that the Government will give consideration to the recommendations of the Transport Select Committee—which appears to have been somewhat less than enthusiastic about the Government’s approach. It is less than enthusiastic not least because, in its view, the statement should specify more types of needed transport schemes—such as enhancements to the rail network to promote east-west connectivity, better road and rail connections to ports and airports and to parts of the country not well served by those networks, and schemes to promote regional economic development. The committee also called on the Department for Transport to address criticisms of its road demand forecasts more explicitly. This debate offers the Minister the opportunity to do just that in the light of the arguments made by my noble friend Lord Berkeley. I hope that she will take the opportunity.
A number of concerns and questions have been raised this afternoon about the draft statement, matters such as the basis on which projects will be assessed and the criteria that will or will not be given significant weight when the assessment is made. I hope that the Minister will respond to all those points either today or subsequently in writing. I am sure she will agree that those points all deserve a full response.
The Minister of State, Department for Transport (Baroness Kramer) (LD)
My Lords, I very much welcome this debate on the Government’s draft national policy statement for national networks—the NPS. This House has a really important role in scrutinising the draft NPS. This debate will help the Government to prepare their final version so I am very appreciative of the comments that have been made today. If noble Lords wish in the future to feed in further comments, I will be glad to take those on board.
I thank the noble Lords, Lord Berkeley and Lord Bradshaw, for giving me a little heads-up in advance of some of the issues that concern them. I hope that that will help with my response today but I am aware that we have covered a very wide range of issues. If I inadvertently miss certain issues, I will be glad to follow up afterwards. I apologise to the noble Lord, Lord Marlesford, for the truncated map. We got it right on the rail freight map which manages to fit neatly into the page. We will get it corrected. It was not intentional but I fear merely a matter of pressing a button at the wrong moment. In terms of the issues around Sizewell C I do not have those details with me today, so I will have to respond to him separately, if I may.
The NPS is a specific document with a specific purpose. It is a technical planning policy statement that will comprise the decision-making framework for nationally significant road, rail and strategic rail freight interchange projects. The noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, made the point that it is crucial that rail freight interchange is included on that list. He asked for greater granularity in the report and I will pass that back in terms of consultation. I suspect that on this issue he knows granularity more than anyone else in this House, but I will take it back and try to get him a more detailed response.
The draft NPS requires a consideration of whether a scheme strikes the right balance between national need and local needs and priorities. I say that to the noble Lord, Lord Rosser, who raised the issue of how the national and local impact on each other. The document is quite explicit in requiring that balance to be struck. If the adverse impacts are greater than the benefits, or if a development fails certain planning tests, then development consent must be refused. In considering applications for development consent for nationally significant road and rail schemes, the decision-maker will need to take account of the full range of environmental, social and economic impacts.
As the noble Lord will know, the key reason for having the NPS as directed within the Planning Act 2008 was to remove protracted debate around issues of national policy from public inquiries, not to eliminate a proper review of schemes. I will come to this point later when I talk about environmental issues, but I advise anyone who has a moment to look at Section 5 of the draft policy statement, which has detailed sections on environmental issues which noble Lords may find helpful regarding some of the questions that they have raised.
There is a strong case for development of road and rail networks. The NPS identifies a compelling need to drive economic growth, improve quality of life and deliver better environmental performance. The national road and rail networks that connect our cities, regions and international gateways play a significant part in supporting economic growth and productivity as well as facilitating passenger business and leisure journeys across the country.
The noble Lord, Lord Rosser, asked why we do not specifically mention buses, coaches or stations. This is a document that operates at the higher levels, so we talk about roads but we do not talk about cars either. We are talking about the planning infrastructure. When it comes to stations, which he specifically mentioned, he will know that we have had an aggressive programme of reopening, improving and adding accessibility to stations, which is long-needed. I am very pleased that we have significant investment in that area and will continue it.
Our national networks are already under considerable pressure and that pressure is expected to increase further, as the long-term drivers of demand to travel, which are GDP and population, are forecast to increase substantially over the coming years. All of us recognise that without action, congestion and crowding will constrain the economy and reduce quality of life.
Some noble Lords talked about percentage increases. To give one example, on the road network in 2010—I think that we can say it will be worse now—it is estimated that 16% of all travel time was spent delayed in traffic. In London, on the rail network, some services are 7% over capacity. Those are the kinds of numbers that we simply cannot continue to live with.
We all recognise that development of the national networks can unlock regional economic growth and regeneration, particularly in the most disadvantaged areas. Broader economic, safety and accessibility goals generate requirements for development because it is the way that we can fix safety issues, improve the environment and enhance accessibility for pedestrians and cyclists.
The noble Lords, Lord Berkeley, Lord Bradshaw and Lord Rosser, raised concerns about traffic forecasts and the broader appraisal process. It is true that we have well established forecasting and appraisal frameworks that have been subjected to internal and external review over many years, and we continuously update them. It is true that over recent years we have overstated traffic forecasts while in previous years we might have understated them, but it is not a problem of the model; rather, the problem is the inputs into the model. The key drivers that are the inputs into the model—population, GDP and oil prices—we all called wrongly some years ago. If you were to put in the correct drivers, the model would give you traffic forecasts that are within 1.3% of observed traffic. So the model itself, for the narrow task for which it is designed, is a reasonably good one, but of course the inputs have to be right. For that reason we now present a range of forecasts and scenarios. But even when we take the lowest forecast using scenarios that take the most conservative possible views on the various drivers, we can still see very significant pressure on the rail and road networks in the form of increased congestion and crowding. It is crucial to understand that the NPS does not mean that national traffic forecasts are simply used to justify individual developments. Each individual scheme needs to use local models to understand local impacts and will be subject to a full transport business case.
Quite a number of comments were made on traffic forecasts, benefit-cost ratios and those kinds of formulas. I should like to make two comments on them. The first picks up on the issue raised by my noble friend Lord Bradshaw of small time savings being a distortion. There are occasions when small time savings can be extremely useful. For example, a tiny time saving at Reading station may not be of particular value to an individual in a way they can name, but it will give an excellent proxy for whether there is enough platform capacity and whether people can move around the station appropriately without overcrowding and congestion occurring. Small time savings can be very useful measures, but I agree that they have to be used under appropriate circumstances. However, it is important that we dethrone, if that is the word, the use of things like benefit-cost ratios and traffic forecasts. They are not litmus tests that say “go” or “no go” on projects; rather, they are one of the tools that have to be used along with other work, analysis and judgment to decide whether a project is appropriate.
As a politician perhaps I am sometimes guilty of using such measures as a proxy for a more complex explanation—the media certainly do so—and I think we need to make sure that we move away from that. I come from a finance background where this kind of analysis is useful, but it is a tool and its limitations have to be understood. There will be no formula we can devise that does not have limitations. All kinds of appraisals come in to the broader decision, including the impact on regeneration and economic growth, which is now highlighted in a way that it never was historically. When talking about the specifics of these appraisal tools, which was the subject of a lot of the conversation today, we are in the process of engaging with an independent review. In October 2013 we committed to undertake a comprehensive survey of the latest theoretical and empirical evidence for the potential growth impacts of nationally significant infrastructure and programmes of expenditure. This work is under way and is being led by Professor Tony Venables at Oxford University, who may be known to some noble Lords. The department will consider whether any further external scrutiny is needed, so we are conscious of the issue.
The NPS supports a significant and balanced package of improvements across the road and rail networks including—this is set out clearly in the document—improvements in safety, resilience, maintenance and environmental performance, and stresses access for cyclists and pedestrians. Noble Lords will know that many of the programmes we have had in the department, especially the local sustainable transport fund, have been key to supporting local communities and improving cycling and pedestrian facilities, and have had a big impact. It has to be recognised that improvements to the road and rail networks supported by the NPS are accompanied by policies to support sustainable transport.
Some stakeholders have criticised our roads policy as being “predict and provide”—I think the noble Lord, Lord Rosser, was one of those who said this—or an excuse for large-scale—
Lord Rosser
I did not actually say it myself but said it was how it was being described by some, including in the debate today. I think that was fair comment. I did not actually make the statement myself.
Baroness Kramer
I stand corrected. It was a fair comment, and was certainly mentioned today, so I will just take it up. I apologise for misattributing the statement. I assure the House that it is not the case. Government policy on roads is not that outdated approach of predicting and providing for all future traffic growth, irrespective of cost and environmental and social impacts. It is about sensible and sustainable development where there is a strong justification based on the transport business case. Again, that is not just about numbers; it needs judgment as well.
Development of the strategic road network is primarily about upgrading the existing network. Almost 40% of the investment designated for this Parliament and the next is for maintenance. Over 80% of the schemes in the current programme are smart motorways. I hope that gives some clearer understanding.
It is very clear in the NPS that road improvements must be delivered in an environmentally sensitive way and must look to improve environmental performance wherever possible. Much environmental good can be done as part of an investment programme. I will talk a little more about noise in a moment but it is an opportunity for introducing noise-reducing surfaces and sustainable drainage, for eliminating bottlenecks in the system which push up emissions and for ameliorating the worsening air quality that comes of course with congestion.
At the same time as we are in the process of doing that, the Government are committed to decarbonising our roads. Over the past four years and the coming four years, an investment of £1 billion in ultra low-emission vehicles and new fuel efficiency regulation means that we expect to see greenhouse gas emissions from motoring dropping by about 20% in 2030 from present-day levels.
My noble friend Lord Bradshaw raised the issue of noise, to which I said I would return. The NPS is very clear that, for new schemes, scheme promoters must undertake works to mitigate the impacts, for example through low-noise surfacing, noise barriers and earthworks. Low-noise surfacing is now used as a matter of course in all new schemes. Over the next Parliament, as I said, maintenance of the strategic network will lead to about 80% of the network being resurfaced with low-noise surfacing.
Air quality is another issue that was singled out. It is a problem that we cannot tackle with a single measure—it needs a fairly coherent approach. First, I would say that we have seen very significant improvements in road quality, largely because of cleaner cars and cleaner fuels. That has been important. Reducing congestion is an important way to improve air quality. Everyone in the House will be conscious of the exceptional levels of investment that are now going into the railway network, both to upgrade the existing system and to develop the new spine of a high-speed system. Again, because of modal shift, that is a very important way of tackling the air-quality problem. We are obviously putting in very significant funds: we announced just about a week ago the next £500 million for investments related to ultra low-emission vehicles. We are tackling that across a wide range. It is a very difficult issue to deal with in a national-level statement but your Lordships can see from the work that the Government are doing that we are applying a lot of attention to this and that we take the issue exceedingly seriously.
My noble friend Lord Bradshaw raised the issue of maintenance. I assure the House that we are investing very heavily in maintenance, resilience and pothole repairs, both on the strategic road network and on the local road network. As I said, almost 40% of the investment in our strategic roads in this and the next Parliament is for maintenance. For local roads, we are providing councils in England with more than £3.5 billion between 2011 and 2015 to maintain their roads. We are committed to providing just less than £6 billion between 2015 and 2021. Immediately following the flooding crisis, we released £183 million in funds to local councils to deal with the impact that would have had in terms of local road damage.
In addition, in the March 2014 Budget the Government announced a £200 million pothole fund for the 2014-15 financial year, £168 million of which is being made available for councils in England. I say that because obviously the NPS covers just England. That is enough to fix more than 3 million potholes. We have made it really clear that we do not expect this to be a “patch and mend” approach. We have given a very clear message to local authorities that they should also be undertaking planned preventive maintenance, and that when they repair a pothole they should ensure that it is right first time in order not to have to do a call-back, because that is very far from cost-effective, as well as being highly problematic for motorists.
The noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, is concerned that not enough is being done to support modal shift to rail freight. The Government strongly support that modal shift, which is why—in addition to the capacity-enhancement projects that are being supported through the rail investment strategy, which are primarily targeted at improving passenger service but will benefit freight as well—we have also, since 2007, allocated more than £500 million specifically for the development of a strategic rail freight network. The allocation of that money is determined by the rail freight industry so that we can be sure that it is addressing priorities.
Of course, electrification of the network can make a very significant difference. I know to my regret that between 1997 and 2010 we electrified only nine miles of railway. We now have a massive electrification programme under way. That is absolutely crucial but it takes time because we are playing catch-up. I think most of us would say that we wished we were not starting from here.
The incorporation of the SRFIs in this national networks NPS really should strengthen developers’ confidence by confirming parliamentary approval for the policy. I hope that we will see that. However, in relation to modal shift, I must say to the noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, that we are not considering road pricing. That is not on the agenda. I am sorry, I meant my noble friend Lord Bradshaw. I am getting names wrong today; that one was completely unintentional. That is not a project that we are looking at. While I am discussing things that we are not looking at, we are not re-looking at concessionary fares. The protection of concessionary fares for older people is in statute and there is no wish whatever to revisit that.
Lord Bradshaw
I was not suggesting that the concessionary fare scheme should be abolished. The important thing is to ensure that the people who provide the bus services are adequately rewarded. There is scope here for considerable investigation; otherwise, this will be fought out in the courts at great expense and great delay.
Baroness Kramer
That probably has scope for a debate on another day, rather than within the context of the NPS. I do not mean to be cruel. I think it is an important issue but not for today. I wanted to leave no doubt that we are not re-examining concessionary fares.
There has been a lot of discussion of an integrated approach, which is very important and an area where we have to improve and build because historically—not just in transport—a lot of what we do has tended to be looked at in silos. There is a big cultural shift taking place. This document is only part of the range of documents that form our thinking around transport. We have strategic economic plans coming in from the LEPs now, as well as rail and road utilisation strategies, which feed in to the rail investment strategy and the forthcoming road investment strategy. Those give us some real opportunities to start looking at integration. I forget which noble Lord talked about HS2 but that is driving a lot of this rethinking, as we recognise that HS2 creates, particularly in the Midlands and in the north, an opportunity to establish connectivity. That needs be thought of alongside HS2 and not as some entirely separate process. In dealing with strategic economic plans, we recognise the link between infrastructure and economic growth. There are real changes going forward there. East-west links are an inherent part of that—that issue was raised by a number of noble Lords—and I consider it to be crucial.
I have only moments left, so let me finish by saying that the department received more than 5,800 responses to its consultation. Around 5,500 of those were responses to campaigns run by the Campaign to Protect Rural England and the Campaign for Better Transport. I give an assurance that we will look at all the responses, as well as at the feedback that comes from the Transport Select Committee—a crucial document—and from this debate today. We intend to finalise the NPS later this year, in the autumn.
I thank everybody who has participated and ask the House to welcome at least the draft of this document, recognising that there will be a great deal more to add before it becomes final.
Lord Rosser
Before the Minister sits down, may I ask her whether she will look at the contributions that have been made and the questions and points that have been raised? I did not expect to receive answers to all the points that I raised today, but I would be grateful if she would indicate that she will look at what has been said and, where questions and points have been raised that she has not had the time to respond to, that a response will be given in writing.
Baroness Kramer
I shall be absolutely delighted to do so. I thought that I had made that clear as I opened, but let me repeat it as I close.
Lord Berkeley
My Lords, I am grateful to all noble Lords who have spoken in this short debate. There was a remarkable unanimity among most of us, including the Minister, on many issues, which is good. Just for the record, I should say that I support demand management. I understand where the Minister is coming from and that is fine.
Perhaps I may respond briefly to the noble Lord, Lord Marlesford, on the Sizewell issue. It is nice to know that Sizewell C will not be built in the middle of the sea. About a year ago, I met the rail freight industry people, EDF and Suffolk Council and said that if the railway was dualled beyond Woodbridge and the link extended into Sizewell, they could run a passenger service for workers to commute from other parts of Suffolk and Essex, as well as take in a lot of freight by rail. I am disappointed that this is not going anywhere, but it is a microcosm of what we have been talking about today: the cross-modal appraisals may not be working out properly. I am happy to talk to the noble Lord later if he would like to.
I definitely support the NPS and hope that the Minister, as she said, will take into account what has been said today. For very good reasons, I beg leave to withdraw the Motion.