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Each debate is chaired by an MP from the Panel of Chairs, rather than the Speaker or Deputy Speaker. A Government Minister will give the final speech, and no votes may be called on the debate topic.
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It is a great pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Robertson, and to respond to this debate. I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Harlow (Robert Halfon) on securing it. He has such a reputation for being a strong representative of his constituents that it is not surprising that the hon. Member for Newcastle upon Tyne North (Catherine McKinnell) might even believe that his constituency was named after him—I know that Harlow is a new town, but a change of name might not be appropriate. However, he does a splendid job on behalf of his constituents as a whole and he does a particularly good job of representing hard-working, low-paid people up and down the country. If I may, I shall describe them as strivers, and my hon. Friend represents them very well. He sets out the case for a 10p rate clearly, with great eloquence and understanding, and I hope to respond to his points.
I thank other hon. Members who have participated in the debate, particularly those who have made speeches: my hon. Friends the Members for Aberconwy (Guto Bebb) and for Cleethorpes (Martin Vickers), and the hon. Member for Strangford (Jim Shannon). I also thank other hon. Members who have participated through their interventions.
During my remarks, I hope to set out what the Government are doing to help the very people that my hon. Friend the Member for Harlow identified as being in need of support: those hard-working, low-paid individuals who are taxed in circumstances where they do not have a lot of money. None the less, they have income tax deducted from their salary, and I will set out what we are doing to help such people.
I would like to take us back to the abolition of the 10p rate, which has obviously featured heavily during our debate this afternoon, and set out a little more information about the arguments that were made at the time and perhaps discuss some of the difficulties that those of us who were in the House had in getting to the truth of the impact of the 10p rate’s abolition—perhaps I should say the doubling of the 10p rate of tax, because that, in truth, is what happened.
In 1997, the Labour party’s manifesto stated that it was Labour’s long-term objective to have
“a lower starting rate of income tax of 10 pence in the pound.”
In the 1998 Budget, the then Chancellor, the right hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Mr Brown), confirmed his intention to bring in such a starting rate
“When it is right for the economy”.—[Official Report, 17 March 1998; Vol. 308, c. 1104.]
The measure was implemented from April 1999, with taxpayers paying only 10p in the pound on their first £1,500 of taxable income. The rationale was to put work first and to ease the poverty trap, whereby people on low pay were discouraged from climbing the earnings ladder due to high marginal deduction rates. The 10p rate remained in place until the announcement in the 2007 Budget, which was the last to be delivered by the right hon. Gentleman. Those of us who were there will remember that the intention behind the abolition was pretty clear. It was a theatrical coup to conclude the last Budget by that Chancellor with a reduction in the main rate of income tax from 22% to 20%. Other measures were taken with regard to the indexation of personal allowances for those aged 65 and above and the retention of the 10% rate for savings income, but what was clear was that great, theatrical moment just before the then Leader of the Opposition stood up, not able to see all the details, and there was this surprise tax cut. Of course, questions then started to be asked about how that was to be funded in what was a fiscally neutral set of tax measures.
At the time, it became clear, once we saw the Red Book, that the Government estimated that the removal of the starting rate of income tax would yield the Exchequer an additional £7.3 billion in 2008-09, so where would the extra cash come from? It was a little difficult to get all the answers at the time. The Budget book at the time set out a list of all the people who would be winning from the changes, and the Budget statement said that four out of five households would either gain or remain in the same position as a result of the Budget measures, but we did not get much detail on the one out of five households that would lose.
The IFS confirmed that 5.3 million households would lose. A senior Treasury official, giving evidence to the Treasury Committee—I should inform hon. Members that I was a member of that Committee at the time—confirmed that that number was in the right ball park. The very next day, the Chancellor of the Exchequer came along to answer questions on the Budget. He was asked five times by my right hon. Friend the Member for Sevenoaks (Michael Fallon) about the 5.3 million households that were going to lose out, and five times he refused to confirm that number. There is a lesson to be learned from that whole episode. We should be more transparent about the impact of policy decisions, and the present Government have taken significant steps to do that.
In the light of that commitment to transparency, will the Minister give us his estimate of how many people lost out through the vote last night?
The reality is that one has to look at all the measures that we are undertaking, which is what I would seek to do. It is worth pointing out that working households will gain an average of £125 in 2013-14 as a consequence of all the measures that we are undertaking. The right hon. Gentleman raises an important point—I shall return to the 10p rate in a moment—but let us remember the context in which we are having this debate now about the steps that we can take.
I will set out a case about the way in which the Government have taken substantial steps with regard to the personal allowance to help low-paid workers. We have done that at a time when we inherited an enormous deficit, and we have had to make difficult decisions about how we reduce that deficit. We have been clear in the distributional analysis of where the contributions are coming from. The facts are very clear. The top 20% of earners are making the biggest contributions, not just in cash terms but in relative terms, to reducing the deficit.
Let me return to the people who lost out from the abolition of the 10p rate of income tax. People under the age of 65 with non-savings income between £5,435 and £19,355 would have paid more, because they lost more from the abolition of the 10% rate than they gained from the cut in the basic rate. It is worth reminding ourselves that a Labour Government took that measure and that those low-paid workers would have paid more tax. The loss was greatest, at £232 a year, for someone earning £7,755—the top of where the 10% band would have been. Those most affected by the abolition of the 10p rate appear to have been those below the age of 65 with an income under £18,500 who were in childless households. The effect was greatest on those households where no individual was above the age of 60, because the household would not then benefit from the higher winter fuel allowance. That is the legacy of the last Budget of the right hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath.
Let us now consider what we have done in this difficult financial situation. We should remember that 2007 was still the age of apparent plenty; we have been in a much more difficult situation. Rather than reintroducing the 10% rate of tax, we have taken steps by increasing the personal allowance; we have taken real steps towards making the first £10,000 of income free from tax. I am grateful to a number of hon. Members for supporting that policy this afternoon. Since 2011, we have announced successive increases in the personal allowance, totalling £2,965. That includes a £1,100 increase announced in the 2012 Budget and a further £235 announced in the autumn statement last month. Following those announcements, the personal allowance rises by £1,335—the largest cash increase in history—to £9,440 from April 2013. Taken together, those changes will benefit 25 million individuals and provide a real-terms gain of £443 to most basic rate taxpayers in 2013-14. More than 2.2 million individuals with low incomes will have been taken out of income tax altogether.
I shall give some more examples of how the changes work. Let us take the context of the national minimum wage. My hon. Friend the Member for Carlisle (John Stevenson) referred to the personal allowance matching the national minimum wage for full-time employees, but let us examine what has happened to a person on the national minimum wage in full-time employment. In 2010-11, someone earning the national minimum wage would have had earnings of £10,979 and paid income tax of £901. In 2013-14, someone earning the national minimum wage will have estimated earnings of £11,691 and pay estimated income tax of £450. In other words, their bill will be halved. Another way to look at it is that, in 2010-11, such a person would have been able to work only 22 hours a week tax free; they can now work 29 hours a week before starting to pay income tax.
Another way to look at the situation is by comparing the approach that we have taken in increasing the personal allowance with the approach that the previous Government took in doubling the 10p rate of income tax. I talked about those who earn £7,755 a year and lost the most—£232 a year—as a consequence of the doubling of the 10p rate in 2008-09. In that year, an individual would have paid £344 in income tax. Under the present Government, in 2012-13, such an individual, with income adjusted for inflation to £8,299 a year, will pay about £39 in income tax—not £344 but £39 in tax, which is a saving of £305. In 2013-14, again with income adjusted for inflation, such an individual will pay no income tax at all. That is a contrast that I am very happy to highlight.
The Minister is setting out an interesting argument. Is he therefore making the case or suggesting that the Government will support the hon. Member for Harlow in his call for the reintroduction of the 10p tax rate?
The argument that I am making is about the contrast that can be drawn with the approach taken by the present Government, who have focused on reducing the tax bill for low-paid workers. That could be done in different ways, but we have undoubtedly, as a Government, reduced the income tax bill for low-paid workers. That compares favourably with the approach taken in the last Budget of the right hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, in which he introduced a measure that increased pretty substantially the amount of income tax that low-paid workers had to pay. It is worth highlighting the point that we as a Government have done more, in very difficult circumstances, for those low-paid workers than the previous Government did.
I think that my hon. Friend the Member for Harlow agrees that we should meet the £10,000 target. The debate is then about where we go next. I will not be drawn into going beyond the firm commitment that we have in the coalition agreement and that has been evidenced by the steps that we have taken at every Budget and in the last autumn statement to make progress towards meeting that £10,000 target for the personal allowance.
My hon. Friend has set out very clearly the case for focusing on reintroducing a new lower rate. There are pros and cons of such an approach, and the debate on that will continue. As he would expect, I will not make any commitments on the matter. Clearly, there is a substantial fiscal cost in reintroducing a 10p rate of income tax. However, the Government’s values are clear. The overall cost of the personal allowance by the end of this Parliament will be around £9.5 billion a year as a consequence of the measures that we have taken. Clearly, where we can, we have been prepared to take substantial steps, at quite significant cost, to reduce the income tax bill for those on low earnings. That is something of which we should be proud, and as a number of my hon. Friends have said, we should be communicating that out there, because it demonstrates our values.
I give credit to the Government for everything that they have done to help those on low incomes get out of the tax bracket altogether by increasing the thresholds. I entirely understand that the Minister will not want to predict what might happen in the future, but, looking to the recent past, will he explain what the Government believe the advantages are of lifting thresholds as an alternative to a 10p tax rate? In other words, why did the Government decide to lift the thresholds rather than reintroduce a 10p rate?
There is a case for simplicity in focusing on the increase in the personal allowance. My hon. Friend the Member for Cleethorpes quoted the Forsyth Commission, which looked into this matter, and there is a question why we should ask people who are on quite low wages to be contributing income tax. I appreciate the arguments that everyone should make a contribution, and I do not in any way dismiss them, but when we are asking people earning such relatively low amounts to pay income tax, there are the significant questions of work incentives and simplification. The Government must bear those in mind when considering whether to reintroduce the 10p rate. There is a debate to be had on both sides. There are pros and cons both to personal allowance increases and to a new lower rate. In our coalition agreement, we rightly set out our determination to get to £10,000. Fiscal drag had brought more people into income tax than was right, and we have rightly made it our priority to address that.
Does the Minister accept that raising the tax threshold to £12,500—the minimum wage—would cost around £14 billion, whereas reintroducing the 10p tax would cost between £6 billion and £7 billion?
I should perhaps check the numbers, but I believe that my hon. Friend is in the right area. Those are, I think, the realistic costs. I am not here to make any further commitments beyond what we have said in the coalition agreement, but it is right that we have this debate. It is also right that we acknowledge that we are all trying to do the same thing, which is to reduce the tax burden on those hard-working, low-paid workers who have to pay more tax, partly as a consequence of a specific decision taken by the previous Chancellor in 2007 to double the 10p rate.
We are nearly at the end of the debate, and I am conscious that the Minister has not really addressed any of the issues that relate to the living wage and what the Government might do to promote that policy as well.
The Government are supportive of the living wage, which the hon. Lady has described as commendable or laudatory. However, unlike the Opposition, the Government do not believe that it should be mandatory. She appears to be in search of a dividing line on that issue. [Interruption.] I am pleased to see her shaking her head. There is cross-party consensus that the living wage has a useful role to play. We support it; we welcome it when organisations adopt it; but we do not believe that it should be mandatory. There are risks involved. In some circumstances, it might increase the cost to the taxpayer in higher salaries, and in others, it might result in higher unemployment. That is why we do not think it should be mandatory and why, I assume, she feels the same way, unless she has a different rationale.
I was seeking clarity on the questions that I raised and whether the Government are taking positive steps to promote the living wage.
It is very much for organisations and institutions to determine their own remuneration policy. We support such a wage in principle, but we will not make it mandatory, and there is cross-party consensus on that.
I turn now to the other steps that we are taking to support the low-paid workers whom my hon. Friend highlighted so well in his remarks. We have helped local authorities to freeze council tax for three years in a row, and we are proposing to set the council tax referendums thresholds at 2% for 2013-14.
I cannot, of course, go through a debate with my hon. Friend without referring to fuel duty. He is a keen campaigner on that point and he will be well aware of the steps that we have taken to ensure that average pump prices are currently 10 pence per litre lower than if we had implemented the fuel duty escalator. They will remain at least 10 pence per litre lower over the remainder of the Parliament than they would have been had we stuck to the plans that we inherited. In practical terms, it will cost £5 less for a typical motorist to fill their tank today and £8 less by the end of the Parliament.
We are taking numerous other steps to ease the load on those on low and middle incomes. We have capped average regulated rail and Transport for London fare increases at RPI plus 1% for the third year in a row. We have increased the basic state pension by £5.30 last year, which is the biggest cash increase ever, and we have introduced a triple guarantee, to ensure that it will increase each year using the increase in earnings, prices or 2.5%, whichever is highest.
I am conscious of the time, so let me say that I congratulate my hon. Friend on securing the debate and all the other attendees on their excellent contributions. As I have said, I think that my hon. Friend and I agree that the Government should reduce the tax burden on people on the lowest incomes. Our focus has been on increasing the personal allowance. I am confident that our policies, both on the minimum wage and the personal allowance, are exactly the right ones to achieve that.