The Minister of State, Department for Work and Pensions (Steve Webb)
I beg to move,
That the draft Pensions Act 2008 (Abolition of Protected Rights) (Consequential Amendments) (No. 2) (Amendment) Order 2012, which was laid before this House on 30 January, be approved.
Madam Deputy Speaker
With this we shall take the following motions, on pensions and on social security:
That the draft Guaranteed Minimum Pensions Increase Order 2012, which was laid before this House on 30 January, be approved.
That the draft Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2012, which was laid before this House on 30 January, be approved.
Steve Webb
The draft Guaranteed Minimum Pensions Increase Order 2012 provides for contracted-out defined-benefit schemes to increase their members’ guaranteed minimum pensions that accrued between 1988 and 1997 by 3%. Increases are capped at that level when price inflation exceeds 3%. That, of course, is an entirely technical matter that we attend to on an annual basis, and not something that I imagine we shall need to dwell on today.
The second, smaller draft order comes about for a sequence of reasons. The Pensions Acts 2007 and 2008 gave the Government the power to abolish contracting out on a defined-contribution basis. A written ministerial statement set the point of abolition as 6 April 2012. In June 2011, the House debated and approved the Pensions Act 2008 (Abolition of Protected Rights) (Consequential Amendments) (No. 2) Order 2011, which makes consequential amendments to primary legislation, consistent with the abolition of defined-contribution contracting out. At the time of that debate, a minor defect in the operation of article 3 of the 2011 draft order came to light. I therefore made it clear to the House that I would return with a further amending order before the 2011 order came into force.
Accordingly, the Pensions Act 2008 (Abolition of Protected Rights) (Consequential Amendments) (No. 2) Order 2012 will remove the exclusion of protected rights payments from what counts as income for the purposes of income payments orders made under section 310 of the Insolvency Act 1986, and from the scope of section 159 of the Pension Schemes Act 1993, which provides that guaranteed minimum pensions and protected rights payments cannot be assigned or charged. The draft order will bring consistency with our original policy intention, namely that the tracking of protected rights should cease after the abolition of defined-contribution contracting out.
Oliver Heald (North East Hertfordshire) (Con)
Does my hon. Friend not think that it is really rather a tribute to his work that the orders are so non-controversial that there is not a single Opposition Back Bencher in the Chamber to discuss the uprating of all the benefits that this country has? I pay tribute to him and congratulate him on that stunning achievement, which I do not think has ever been replicated.
Steve Webb
I am most grateful, although my initial oratory has already drawn one hon. Member into the Chamber. If I keep going for long enough, who knows? My hon. Friend is right to pay tribute to the coalition for finding the money to protect the most vulnerable households at a time of economic stringency. He can share in that credit.
On the principal order—the draft Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2012—despite that challenging economic landscape, the coalition is committed to protecting people who have worked hard all their lives, poorer pensioners, people who are not able to work through their disabilities, and people who, through no fault of their own, have lost their jobs and are trying to find work. Those are important aims for uprating 2012, which my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer made clear in his autumn statement on 29 November, Official Report, column 802.
Mr David Ruffley (Bury St Edmunds) (Con)
Has the Minister had any representations regarding the apparent iniquity of uprating by CPI on the basis of one month’s figures—those for September?
Steve Webb
My hon. Friend is right that when the uprating was considered, there was speculation that a different month, or a rolling average or something like that, might be used. It was decided to continue the practice of using the September CPI, but I would stress that that is not a one-month figure, but a figure published in one month about the past 12 months. Although as it happened 5.2% was the peak—I think I am right in saying that it was lower in the month before and the month after—each 12 months joins on to another 12 months, so in another year, the September figure could be the lowest. We took the view that that was the established practice, and that changing it could leave it open to manipulation. Although in a particular year it can stand out, when we take one year with the next, it will sometimes be lower and sometimes higher.
As hon. Members know, using the CPI measure of inflation was an important part of this Government’s plans for uprating pensions and benefits. I am delighted that we will have a debate on that very subject next Thursday afternoon—I look forward to being here at the same time and the same place next week. In addition to being the headline measure of inflation in the UK and the internationally recognised target measure of inflation used by the Bank of England, we believe the CPI is a superior measure of inflation when it comes to uprating benefits and pensions, first because the CPI basket of goods is a better match for the spending patterns of pensioners, and secondly because it takes better account of how households respond to price changes.
Last year, the High Court upheld the Government’s decision that the CPI can be used for pensions and benefits uprating and we have robustly defended our case in the Court of Appeal.
Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)
As the Minister knows, the UK Statistics Authority has said that CPI should be used for that purpose only if it incorporates a measure of housing costs. I know some work is being done to incorporate such costs in the CPI measure, but is it the Government’s intention to use that modified measure when it is available?
Steve Webb
The right hon. Gentleman rightly says that the consumer prices advisory committee is looking at how owner-occupiers’ housing costs can be included in CPI—as he will appreciate, rent is already included in CPI. The committee has rejected the retail prices index approach in respect of mortgage interest and is looking at a range of alternatives. I understand that it is due to report in early 2013. I have said consistently that we will look at what it comes up with. Each year, as he knows, the Secretary of State must take a view on the general increase in prices, and will certainly have regard to the work of the committee in doing so.
Dr Eilidh Whiteford (Banff and Buchan) (SNP)
I am grateful to the Minister for addressing one issue that I wanted to raise with him, but I am also concerned that pensioners’ and disabled people’s experience of inflation is dependent on their heating costs, which was one of the main drivers of inflation last year. My concern is that CPI is not a good measure of people’s experience of inflation, because those people experience higher inflation than the rest of us, who go out during the day.
Steve Webb
The hon. Lady is right that any single inflation measure will not capture the full diversity of circumstances. One of the main differences between RPI and CPI is that RPI includes mortgage interest, which is largely irrelevant to most pensioners. By excluding mortgage interest from its basket of goods, the CPI gives more weight to the things on which pensioners spend their money. Other things being equal, CPI will therefore tend to be a better fit with the spending patterns of pensioners.
The hon. Lady is right that rising fuel prices are an important issue. That is one reason why instead of simply doing our legal duty by the poorest pensioners, which was to uprate the pension credit by earnings only, which was 2.8%, we chose to do a full pass-through of the £5.30 basic state pension rise to the poorest pensioner on pension credit precisely because they have faced the pressures she describes. We are aware of that point and have sought to do something in this uprating measure to address it.
Oliver Heald
I am grateful to the Minister for being so generous with his time. Does he agree that some quite significant changes are taking place in the hierarchy of indexes that can be used for uprating? For example, earnings, which was always thought to be by far the highest measure, is at the moment the lowest measure. In addition, changes in the housing market have affected the CPI and RPI differential. It is therefore a moving picture. It is not as straightforward as saying, “History tells the whole story.”
Steve Webb
My hon. Friend is right. I noticed in the most recent figures that the gap between CPI and RPI was just 0.3%. That is historically low, but the numbers and relative values change a great deal. That is why our triple lock says of the basic state pension, “If it’s prices that give you the highest number, we’ll pay that; if it’s earnings, we’ll pay that; and if it’s 2.5%, we’ll pay that.” We were determined to ensure that pensioners got the best deal for the basic state pension whatever was happening to the relative value of those numbers.
As I made clear in my statement to the House at the end of last year, this Government will use the full value of the September CPI to uprate pensions and social security benefits from April 2012. At a time when the prevailing headline figure for CPI has already fallen to 3.6% and is forecast to fall further during this year, we shall be uprating the overwhelming majority of pensions and benefits by 5.2%.
Glyn Davies (Montgomeryshire) (Con)
Perhaps I should declare an interest, having reached an age at which I benefit personally from this uprating. Normally, a lot of constituents who are concerned about the increase will contact their MP. This year, none has contacted me, which demonstrates a general acceptance among the population that the Government’s decision is fair.
Steve Webb
The volume of my ministerial correspondence on this issue has been very light. Almost all of it was with people who were afraid because they had seen speculation that we might water down our promises. I have been able to write reassuring letters to them to say that we will honour our promises in full.
Katy Clark (North Ayrshire and Arran) (Lab)
I apologise for missing the beginning of the Minister’s opening remarks. Will not the change mean a reduction from 5.6%, which would have been the uprating had we used RPI? Is the Minister aware that we have a Back-Bench debate on the matter because more than 100,000 people have signed a petition against the changes, particularly as they affect pensions? It therefore surely cannot be the case that people are happy about the changes.
Steve Webb
The hon. Lady may not have been in the Chamber when I referred to next week’s debate, when we will debate such issues at greater length. I was not aware that it was Labour party policy to revert to RPI—its view for now is that CPI is appropriate. She might want to raise that with the right hon. Member for East Ham (Stephen Timms), who is on the Opposition Front Bench. For the reasons I have given, our judgment is that the CPI basket of goods matches the spending patterns of pensioners. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has confirmed that modelling and people’s response to price changes is better with CPI than in RPI. No index is perfect, but there is a good case for using CPI.
Funnily enough, when I attended a National Pensioners Convention event in the House a few months ago, the people there all demanded CPI, which shows how the debate has moved on. I am sure the hon. Lady has a press release saying that more is being demanded, but the tenor of the debate was that there was speculation that we would not honour our triple-lock promise. They said: “Minister, will you guarantee us the triple lock—prices, earnings or 2.5%? Will it be the 5.2% that we have just seen?” That was commendable realism on the part of the National Pensioners Convention—that is its role in life—but things may have moved on now it has banked the 5.2% in the current environment. In fact, 5.2% is the biggest cash increase ever and one of the biggest real-terms increases in a long time. I am proud to stand by that figure.
Restoring the earnings link for the basic state pension was an early action by this coalition Government, putting an end to 30 years of deterioration in the value of the foundation of retirement income relative to average earnings. Better than that, we went one further with our triple guarantee to pay the highest of the growth in earnings, prices or 2.5%, so that even in times of slow earnings growth, we will not see a repeat of the small rises, such as the 75p rise in 2000, presided over by the Labour party.
In line with the triple guarantee, the new rate for the basic state pension, received by more than 11 million people in this country, will be £107.45 a week for a single person, an increase of £5.30 a week. My hon. Friends in the coalition may be interested to know that that means that from April 2012, the basic state pension is forecast to be 17.1% of average earnings, which is a higher share of average earnings than in any year of the previous Labour Government from 1997.
Stephen Timms
A minute or two ago, the Minister said that this was the highest ever real-terms increase to the state pension.
Stephen Timms
I thought that was what the Minister said. Perhaps he can clarify that point, because by definition it cannot be a real-terms increase.
Steve Webb
It is the highest cash increase ever and the highest real-terms increase for about 10 years.
Stephen Timms
Given that the increase is purely in line with inflation, how can the Minister describe it as a real-terms increase?
Steve Webb
Because the point at which the money is paid is not the point at which inflation is measured, so when people actually get the money it will be substantially more than the inflation since the last increase.
Stephen Timms
This takes us back to the point raised by the hon. Member for Bury St Edmunds (Mr Ruffley). The Minister is making a virtue out of a timing point rather than a substantial point. He is a modest man, and I am sure he will accept that the Government cannot claim credit for inflation being slightly lower now than it was last September.
Steve Webb
On the contrary, let us bear in mind what the Government have done: the Chancellor has taken action on the taxation of petrol, resulting in inflation being lower than it would have been, and we have successively frozen council tax in many parts of the country, which is of huge benefit to many pensioners. There are many things that Governments do that influence inflation. Some factors are global, which is one reason inflation peaked at 5.2%, but measures that the Government have taken have also been one reason prices have been falling. That is entirely to the Government’s credit.
Stephen Lloyd (Eastbourne) (LD)
Does my hon. Friend agree that the Government came under considerable pressure not to opt for 5.2% because informed opinion thought that inflation was falling, but with strong urging from the Liberal Democrats in the coalition, the Minister determinedly stuck to the 5.2%, which has made it a real-terms increase?
Steve Webb
Indeed. My hon. Friend is right that there were siren voices from some quarters suggesting that we could not afford, or that we should not go for, this inflation figure. He is absolutely right that the coalition parties decided that it was a priority. That is something that I am proud to be associated with.
Oliver Heald
Does the Minister agree that the Government have also gone further than they needed to on the pension credit? The requirement is to uprate by earnings but he has gone one better by increasing it by 3.9%. So not only were the siren calls resisted, but more generosity was shown to the poorest pensioners.
Steve Webb
There was indeed. My carefully structured speech is falling to ribbons. I was about to come to that achievement.
Ian Paisley (North Antrim) (DUP)
Although I understand the point about the real increase in the state pension from £102.15 to £107.45, I do not consider it something to be doing cartwheels about. In reality, it will not have a major impact on the lives of the elderly across this nation, especially given that just a few weeks ago, the House removed £100 from the winter fuel allowance. Effectively, the oldest pensioners are £50 a year worse off, not better off. I think that we have to get real. This is not enough.
Steve Webb
Let me address that issue directly. Any pensioner will say that the basic state pension is the most important thing to them: they like the winter fuel payment and they like the means-tested benefit—well, they do not always like it but it is valued by those who receive it—but a decent state pension has been the clarion cry of pensioners for decades. For 30 years, pensions have fallen, year on year, relative to earnings, and consequently the ability of the basic state pension to do its job of replacing earnings has been falling for 30 years. We have reversed that.
The pension will now rise at least in line with earnings, but in years such as this, when price rises are higher than earnings increases, it will rise by more. So the position of pensioners relative to people in work has been improved by this uprating statement. Can we go further? Yes. And we will, because under the triple lock, over a typical retirement, someone retiring this year will gain £13,000 of retirement pension over and above RPI. Can we fix 30 years of decline in a single year? No, of course not, but we can focus the money on the thing that pensioners value the most—the basic state pension.
As I have mentioned, with the triple guarantee protecting the value of the basic state pension in the longer term, the average pensioner retiring this year on a full—I should have said that—pension will gain about £13,000 compared to the old price link.
I shall turn to the additional state pensions, which are commonly referred to as SERPS—state earnings-related pension scheme. In April 2010, just before the start of this Parliament, the uprating was based on the year to September 2009, when RPI was negative. That means that in April 2010 the previous Government froze SERPS—I assume they thought that pensioners had not experienced inflation the preceding year. In April 2011, however, we increased SERPS by 3.1%, and this year SERPS, as well as the basic state pension, will rise by the full 5.2%. That means that the total state pension increase for someone with a full basic pension and average additional pension will be around £6.70 a week, or £348 a year.
When it comes to the standard minimum guarantee in pension credit, the legislation requires only that an increase be at least in line with the growth in average earnings, so that over the long term the poorest pensioners see their incomes rise in line with the income of the working-age population. As my hon. Friend the Member for North East Hertfordshire (Oliver Heald) said, however, this year the relevant earnings index stood at just 2.8%. We judged it unacceptable for the poorest pensioners on the guarantee credit to receive the smallest cash increase of all. Our aim was to ensure that the poorest pensioners received an increase in line with the cash increase to the basic state pension.
As a result, the order increases the single person’s rate of the standard minimum guarantee by £5.35, taking it to £142.70 per week from April 2012. To help manage expenditure, we have funded the above-earnings increase to the standard minimum guarantee by increasing the savings credit threshold, which means that those with higher levels of income could see less of an increase. However, given the increase to the basic state pension, no one should have a lower weekly income as a result of uprating. This approach enables us to target resources for the poorest pensioners on the guarantee credit.
I shall turn briefly to working-age benefits. The coalition will ensure that the value of other social security benefits is maintained, through a 5.2% rise, even in these tough economic times. That means, for disabled people above and below pension age, through disability living allowance and attendance allowance, an increase of 5.2%; for people of working age who are not fit for work, through employment and support allowance, an increase of 5.2%; and for people who have lost their job through no fault of their own, through jobseeker’s allowance, an increase of 5.2%. These increases will ensure that the most vulnerable people in society are protected and that those looking for work get the support they need to move into the labour market.
The order gives real support to protect people against price increases. At a time when the nation’s finances are under severe pressure, the Government will spend an extra £6.6 billion in 2012-13 to protect people against cost of living increases. I cannot help observing that, if someone spends too much time in the DWP, lots of zeros tend to make them glaze over, but this is £6.6 billion of help for some of the most vulnerable people in the country: £4.5 billion more on pensioners; over £1 billion more on disabled people and their carers; and over £1 billion more on people unable to work through sickness or unemployment.
We have protected the triple lock, thereby securing the largest ever cash rise in the basic state pension; we have uprated the pension credit so that the poorest pensioners benefit from the triple lock; and we have uprated working age benefits by 5.2%, thereby protecting the real incomes of the poorest. I have outlined the coalition Government’s firm commitment to ensuring that even in these difficult times no one is left behind, and I commend these orders to the House.
Stephen Timms
The hon. Gentleman’s argument is a different one from the Minister’s. The Minister says that because of the triple lock, pensioners are safeguarded and need not worry about what future judgments Ministers will make. In a way, I am rather more with the hon. Gentleman on this than with the application of the formula. Again, however, I would point out that last year—the first year that this supposedly wonderful mechanism was in place—the Government overrode it. I am therefore not quite sure what certainty pensioners would have for the future about whether, in the event of siren voices being heard—we heard about those earlier—the triple lock might be overrode in the other direction, if someone judges that to be appropriate.
Steve Webb
Will the right hon. Gentleman confirm that the statutory position that his Government left—and which was the basis of the spending plans for 2012 that they published for us—was based not on the higher of either prices or earnings but on earnings alone, and that the pension rise that his party pencilled in for 2012 was not five-and-a-bit per cent., but more like 2.5%?
Stephen Timms
As the Minister well knows, the basic state pension was uprated over a long period in line with RPI. My point is simply that if that mechanism was still in place, there would be a greater increase in the current year than the Minister has incorporated in the order before us today.
Steve Webb
But if the right hon. Gentleman thought that in the event of prices being higher than earnings he would choose prices, why did he make it the statutory position that just earnings would be used, therefore pencilling in an earnings-only increase for 2012, which meant that we had to find extra money to do better than just earnings this year?
Stephen Timms
It is probably the case that the Government’s poor performance on inflation—to go back to a point the Minister made earlier—and the resulting high level of inflation have been a surprise. I do not think anyone expected inflation to rise so rapidly. However, I want to underline the point, which the Minister has not acknowledged yet, that if RPI was still in place for the coming year, the increase for pensioners would be higher than the order in question sets out.
The judgment to adopt this approach of using a permanently meaner version of uprating than was in place before is one that we oppose. Of course there is a pressing need to reduce the deficit. We know, as does the International Monetary Fund—and, it would seem, the credit rating agencies and, this week, the former Defence Secretary—that reducing the deficit requires economic growth, which is strikingly absent at the moment. With the economy not creating enough new jobs and so many people out of work, not paying taxes but instead claiming benefits, targets for reducing the deficit will just keep being pushed back further and further. We heard in the autumn statement that we will be borrowing £158 billion more over the lifetime of this Parliament than on the last estimate, because the Government’s economic policy has failed to deliver growth and the economy has flatlined. If, instead of the permanent switch to CPI uprating, a temporary switch had been proposed—with the aim of contributing to deficit reduction over a short period—that might, in our view, have been justified, but we do not support the Government’s policy of a permanent switch to meaner uprating.
In the debate last year, the Minister attempted to make something of the fact that, for five of the past 20 years, RPI had been lower than CPI. Well, it was not lower last year, and it is not lower this year. RPI has generally been higher. Since 1989, the gap between RPI and RPI minus X and the CPI measure has been 0.7% on average. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s November economic and fiscal outlook suggests that the long-run difference between RPI and CPI is likely to be a good deal more, at about 1.4 percentage points. That is twice as much as that historic average, so the OBR thinks that the gap between RPI uprating and the CPI uprating that the Government want to apply in perpetuity is going to get bigger, not narrower.
Steve Webb
I am grateful to all hon. Members who have taken part in this debate. The hon. Member for Banff and Buchan (Dr Whiteford) deserves particular credit for being here throughout and not making a speech, but we are grateful to her for her interventions. I shall respond to the key points that have been made. I was going to respond first to the right hon. Member for East Ham (Stephen Timms), but I shall do so at the end if he has time to come back and join us.
My hon. Friend the Member for Truro and Falmouth (Sarah Newton) has also been surprised by the timing of the winding-up speeches. I am grateful for her contribution and her important point about the significance of the take-up of these benefits. It is all very well our sitting here debating the rates, but if people do not claim the benefits, it is a slightly academic exercise. My hon. Friend was right to highlight the importance of our making sure that the benefits are taken up— [Interruption.] I am delighted that she is rejoining us. I was welcoming her comments about benefit take-up, and today we have published the latest take-up figures for income-related benefits in the final year of the previous Government. They demonstrate that in the benefits under discussion many billions of pounds go unclaimed, so she is absolutely right that we should do all we can to encourage people to claim them.
My hon. Friend will have seen in these uprating orders that we are trying to shift the balance towards the benefits that people really do claim, such as the state pension, and even within pension credit we have loaded the balance towards the guarantee credit, which is more likely than the savings credit to be taken up. On today’s figures, for those who are entitled to savings credit only, the take-up rate is less than 50%, so it is vital that when we set benefit rates we ensure that people claim them. I was grateful to her for her insight on that point, on the certainty that the triple lock gives pensioners and on the fact that we have stuck to it despite difficult economic times, and I can assure her that we will continue to do so.
The hon. Member for North Ayrshire and Arran (Katy Clark) was entirely straight with the House, saying that she does not agree with the CPI measure or with her Front Benchers. On the issue of whether that is controversial, of course it is, but all I was saying is that I last joined the National Pensioners Convention at a time when no decision had been made, so it is worth winding the House back to that point.
In the press there was speculation that we might introduce a freeze—I shall return in a second to the points made by the hon. Member for Bury St Edmunds (Mr Ruffley)—or use a forecast, a moving average or anything to get the number down. At that point, I was staggered to go to an NPC event and be—“harangued” would be uncharitable—forcefully encouraged to deliver 5.2%. Having seen that delivered, I would, if I were the NPC, then demand 5.6%. I understand that, but it is worth reminding ourselves of the pressure that the Government were under to do less, so 5.2% was an entirely decent settlement in the current economic climate.
The hon. Member for North Ayrshire and Arran made an important point about the cumulative effect, which was her key theme. She made an important point also about working age, but to focus on pensioners I note that there are two cumulative effects going on at the same time: one is the triple lock and the other is CPI, which applies to additional pensions. The question is, which is the greater?
The hon. Lady mentioned someone with an occupational pension of £10,000 a year, but from memory—this is only from memory—the average occupational pension in payment is about £4,000 a year, so her example is more than double the typical sum, and our estimate, looking just at the cumulative impact over a retirement of the basic pension, is where the £13,000 figure comes from. Looking purely and cumulatively at the triple lock, because the earnings figure is normally more than RPI, we find that people will get more through that. CPI is on average less than RPI, so on the additional pension they will get less.
The cumulative effect of the two is beneficial to those with lower occupational pensions, but less beneficial—indeed, there are net losses—to those with higher occupational pensions. So the hon. Lady is probably right: someone on a £10,000 occupational pension will get smaller net increases and someone on a £3,000 occupational pension will get bigger net increases overall. That is taking account of the two policies. She is right that these policies have a cumulative effect. For example, on the CPI link for local housing allowance, the Government have said that they will continue with that for two years and review the position having done so. I am grateful to the hon. Lady for drawing the House’s attention to the Chair of the Select Committee’s unfortunate accident. I am sure that we all wish her our very best for a speedy recovery.
My hon. Friend the Member for Bury St Edmunds observed that the September 2011 figure was a peak. He said that by the time we get to April 2012 it will already be a bit out of date and that by the end of 2012-13 it will be 18 months out of date. This involves two separate questions: first, whether we should use forecasts or historical figures; and, secondly, what we should have done this year. The VAT increase in January 2011 was a significant driver of the 5.2% figure. Had we, for example, chosen to look at inflation only over certain months, or chosen to switch to the future just at the precise point when something quite big happened historically, people might have queried our sincerity. At times in the late 1970s and ’80s, some Governments switched to and fro between forecasts and historical figures, and there was a sense that that had nothing to do with compensating for inflation but was merely trying to find a low number. It is important that we have a system for compensating for inflation that we stick to and a separate system of judgments on what the country can afford, whereby if we cannot afford 5.2%, we should say so. We should not try to think of a period that will give us a lower number. My hon. Friend is right that if we had used a lower inflation measure we could have saved a lot of money, but that is the answer to a different question.
Mr Ruffley
The burden of my argument did not relate especially to last autumn’s figure but to the principle of whether, for a 12-month period in which one is seeking by an uprating to compensate benefit recipients for the cost of living, one should use a figure, whatever it is, that is six months prior—that is, the September figure.
Steve Webb
Indeed. If one could obtain pretty robust and independently accepted forecasts—although that prompts at least two questions—there would have to be a decision about whether one used “forecast, forecast, forecast” or “history, history, history”. In terms of the orders, I am concerned with the decision that we had to make about this year. Had we switched from history to forecast just at the point when forecast was helping us, I think that we would have been criticised. With an historian sitting opposite me, I hesitate to say that no one can argue about history, but at least there is some certainty in the past. We now have the Office for Budget Responsibility, and we have the Bank of England, so we could get an objective future figure. However, if we did that and the future started to turn out differently, there would be a lot of pressure with people saying, “You forecast this figure but it is turning out to be more”. There would also be pressure to make in-year corrections, whereas nobody can argue about history, and that gives us a certain amount of certainty. Having said that, I understand my hon. Friend’s comment about the point of indexation being to match the inflation experience.
My hon. Friend talked about in-work and out-of-work benefits and the relative position of pensioners, as did my hon. Friend the Member for Eastbourne (Stephen Lloyd). I remind him that we have different approaches for pensioners and for non-pensioners. The statutory position for non-pensioners is generally CPI or, in some cases, discretionary, while our policy for pensioners is triple lock. We are in very strange times, with CPI, RPI and earnings going all over the place. In more normal times, when earnings rise faster than prices, pensioners will generally get bigger increases.
I entirely agree with my hon. Friend about the burdens on the low-paid. That is why we are keen to raise the tax-free personal allowance, among other measures. Nobody would say that being in a low-paid job is a comfortable place to be, especially with pay freezes. On average, people affected by the tax credits changes are on incomes of some £17,000 a year, but someone who is drawing employment and support allowance is on an income of about £3,500 a year. It is a question of how much scope the person has to accommodate and absorb these inflation shocks, and that was the judgment that we made. Most of the time, earnings rise faster than prices, and the gap between jobseeker’s allowance and low-paid people’s wages is increasing year after year. In the past 20 years, it has probably increased 17 or 18 times. In general, that will be the sort of outcome that we get. Of course, as soon as we introduce universal credit, that will institutionalise the gap between out-of-work and in-work benefits in the way that I think he wants to see.
My hon. Friend the Member for Eastbourne welcomed the 5.2% increase, particularly for working-age disabled people. I am grateful for his representations on that. He is right that we need to protect people who are not able to work. He asked about the evolution of CPI and RPI. Just to be clear, the £13,000 figure was reached by comparing our triple lock, based on OBR-type assumptions, with the RPI policy of the past 30 years. We asked what somebody retiring on a full pension this year would have got had RPI been rolled forward and what they would get under the triple lock according to realistic assumptions about earnings and prices. The difference between the two is a cumulative £13,000. That figure has changed. I used to say that it was £15,000, then the OBR changed its numbers and I said that it was £10,000. We now say that it is £13,000. The figure will change, but over time earnings tend to grow faster than RPI, so the basic pension will tend to grow faster than it would have done. That is something that we need to communicate over the coming years.
I wrote down a bizarre phrase that was used by the right hon. Member for East Ham (Stephen Timms). He said that the triple lock “undermines pensions uprating”. People can check his speech, but that is what I thought he said. That is nonsense. The triple lock reinforces pensions uprating because it always gives pensioners the best deal between CPI, earnings and 2.5%.
Steve Webb
I will in a second. Clearly, those numbers all fluctuate relative to each other. Perhaps the right hon. Gentleman can confirm whether he disputes the fact that £13,000 extra compared with the policy that his Government adopted for 13 years is the result of the triple lock?
Stephen Timms
I want to focus on the year ahead. Will the Minister confirm that the triple lock will deliver a lower uprating than would RPI?
Steve Webb
It is interesting that the Labour party has said that it does not support the orders, which include a CPI increase, and yet is not going to vote against them. I assume that it will not vote against them as there are only about four Labour Members here.
It is unclear what the right hon. Gentleman is saying. He does not think that there should be an RPI increase. Whether RPI is higher than CPI this year could be a debating point. Of course RPI is higher, as he well knows and as we all know. However, he is not in favour of using RPI this year, but favours a temporary move to CPI. I am not sure what debating point he is trying to make.
The right hon. Gentleman and the hon. Member for Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East (Gregg McClymont) asked about CPIH, which is CPI including the housing costs of owner-occupiers. We are entirely open to looking at that. We are not going to say that we will definitely use it, because we do not know what it is, what it will include or what its properties will be. It would be premature of us to sign up to a prices index that we have not seen and that has not even been invented yet. We are entirely open to considering whether that is the right measure to use when the Secretary of State decides the general increase in the cost of living for September 2013, which is when it will presumably happen. I have said that consistently.
The right hon. Member for East Ham asked why we had increased the standard minimum guarantee by 3.9%. That is the cash pass-through. We have given the basic state pension £5.30. We wanted people on the minimum guarantee to get at least £5.30. It turns out that it will be £5.35. That is 3.9%.
The right hon. Gentleman asked about the savings from the savings credit change. We over-indexed the guarantee credit compared with statute, so it is 3.9% rather than 2.8%. That cost us £200 million, which we have to find by cutting back the savings credit. There is therefore no net saving on pension credit as a whole, but rather redistribution from the savings credit to the guarantee credit. I hope that that answers his question.
The right hon. Gentleman said that the Government had been secretive about the link between the local housing allowance and CPI, and about the freeze in April 2012. I accept that not many people listen to our debates in the House, but I announced that measure from the Dispatch Box on 6 December 2011. I think that he might even have been here. I said:
“As part of the preparation for this change, we need to fix LHA rates, to establish a baseline… As the new cycle for uprating LHA will be annual, we have decided that the baseline should be one year ahead of the first uprating event. Therefore, LHA rates will be fixed from April 2012.”—[Official Report, 6 December 2011; Vol. 537, c. 164.]
The measure was therefore announced before Christmas. Perhaps the right hon. Gentleman had his mind on other things at the time.
The right hon. Gentleman asked why the deductions from heating and so on in the social security order are relatively high. The deductions are linked to the component indices of CPI. Those things have gone up by more than inflation. Each year, we link them to what has actually happened to the cost of those items. Therefore, had the costs been lower, we would have used a lower figure. That is just for consistency.
I stand before the House having just announced £6.6 billion of spending. With due respect to the hon. Members who have attended the debate, it has not received a huge amount of scrutiny, but as was said during the debate, that is because people overwhelmingly think we have done the right thing. We have recognised that pensioners, who will get two thirds of the money, should benefit from the triple lock, that the poorest pensioners should be protected, that disabled people should be protected from inflation and that people who are out of work through no fault of their own should not suffer a cut in their real living standards. It is therefore my great pleasure to commend the orders to the House.
Question put and agreed to.
Resolved,
That the draft Pensions Act 2008 (Abolition of Protected Rights) (Consequential Amendments) (No. 2) (Amendment) Order 2012, which was laid before this House on 30 January, be approved.
Pensions
Resolved,
That the draft Guaranteed Minimum Pensions Increase Order 2012, which was laid before this House on 30 January, be approved.—(Steve Webb.)
Social Security
Resolved,
That the draft Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2012, which was laid before this House on 30 January, be approved.—(Steve Webb.)