The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Lord Howell of Guildford)
My Lords, with the leave of the House I will now repeat a Statement made earlier today by my right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary on Afghanistan. The Statement is as follows:
“Mr Speaker, with permission, I will report to the House the Government’s assessment of progress towards UK objectives in Afghanistan. This is the first of the quarterly reports that the Prime Minister announced in his Statement to the House on 14 June.
Making progress in Afghanistan is the top foreign policy priority for the Government, linked closely of course to our foreign and development policy towards Pakistan. It is right, therefore, that Parliament is able to scrutinise the mission in Afghanistan in detail. From the beginning of the new Government we have given full attention to Afghanistan in the National Security Council. We have ensured that government departments and Ministers are working together at the highest level and that the necessary resources are being devoted to this difficult task. We have doubled the operational allowance for our troops, sharply increased our development aid and rebalanced the deployment of our forces in Helmand.
In addition to these reports and regular updates by Ministers, we will also make more information available to the House in the form of Written Ministerial Statements each month from November. I will make a further Statement when the investigation into the tragic death of Linda Norgrove is complete.
Members on all sides will join me in expressing gratitude to our courageous Armed Forces. They are the finest any nation could hope to have. We should also remember the families of the 341 men and women who have given their lives and the many who have been wounded. For nine years thousands of Britons have served in Afghanistan in both civilian and military roles in extraordinarily difficult circumstances, and we owe them a great deal.
It remains vital to our national security that Afghanistan be able to maintain its own security and to prevent al-Qaeda from returning. NATO’s strategy is to protect the civilian population, support more effective government at every level and build up the Afghan national security forces as rapidly as is possible. It also requires the Afghan Government to meet the commitments on governance and security that it made at the Kabul conference in July this year. My report today will cover all these areas. It represents the combined assessment of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the Ministry of Defence and the Department for International Development, and the next quarterly report will be delivered by the Secretary of State for Defence in the new year.
On security, we assess that steady progress is being made across Afghanistan and specifically in Helmand and Kandahar provinces. International forces now number 130,000, while the Afghan national security forces will reach 260,000 by the end of the year, exceeding their target for 2010. Afghan and ISAF forces have checked the momentum of the insurgency and the area under the control of the Government of Afghanistan is increasing. However, the situation remains extremely challenging. One of the effects of increased military activity is that the number of security incidents, particularly those involving direct fire, has increased sharply. We should not underestimate the highly difficult task our forces continue to face.
ISAF’s military effort is currently focused on Kandahar. Afghan and international forces continue to clear the insurgency out of areas adjacent to the provincial capital. Afghan security forces are taking an increased role in planning and executing the current phase of these operations and make up well over half of the forces involved. In the coming weeks, operations will focus on holding the ground that has been gained and providing a secure environment for local Afghan governance to develop.
In Helmand province, UK forces continue to train the Afghan national security forces and conduct security operations against the insurgency. As my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for Defence announced on 14 October, we are increasing the number of UK troops directly involved in the training and development of the Afghan national security forces by over 320. This increase is part of the rebalancing of UK forces in the province and has been made possible by the handover of security responsibility for Kajaki, Musa Qala and Sangin to our US allies, in order to concentrate British forces in the key population areas of central Helmand.
On 17 October, units of the 3rd Brigade of the Afghan National Army’s 215 Corps launched a significant operation to secure settlements near Gereshk. This operation is building on the success of previous Afghan national security force operations which have cleared the insurgency out of former havens in central Helmand over the course of the summer. Planning and implementation is being led by the Afghans with British mentors from 1st Battalion Irish Guards providing support. For the first time, engineering, artillery, countering improvised explosive devices and reconnaissance are being conducted by the Afghan National Army itself.
US Marines, which now form the majority of the ISAF forces in Helmand, continue the hard fought struggle against the insurgency in Sangin, while in Marjah they have continued to carry out operations alongside the Afghan National Army and Police.
The Government are confident that we have the right military strategy in place and the right number of troops in Afghanistan. However, we must expect levels of violence to remain high, and even increase, as Afghan and ISAF forces tackle the insurgency. The murders by insurgents of the governor of Kunduz province and a district governor in Nangarhar province remind us of the violence that still exists, even in the more secure areas of the country.
The Prime Minister will attend the NATO summit in Lisbon on 19 November, when we expect NATO to agree the process of transferring lead responsibility for security across Afghanistan to the Afghan security forces by the end of 2014. It will be a phased transition, with the Afghan security forces gradually taking the lead, as they have in Kabul, in jointly selected districts and provinces as the conditions on the ground are met. British forces will be drawn down from combat operations by 2015.
On governance, we assess that the Government of Afghanistan are making some progress on their Kabul conference commitments. The human rights support unit in the ministry of justice has been opened. The Afghan national security adviser has approved a revised national security policy. The Government are finalising a 100-day report which will highlight progress and areas where further action is needed. But more still needs to be done, some of it more quickly.
Last month’s parliamentary elections passed without serious security incident. However, the independent electoral commission has confirmed that more than 1 million votes, almost a quarter of the total, were disqualified on grounds of irregularities and fraud. The Electoral Complaints Commission will investigate allegations against candidates and disqualify those found to have committed fraud before final results are issued. This is an important process to build Afghans’ confidence in their country’s institutions.
On 7 October, the High Peace Council was inaugurated, fulfilling a key request of the Afghan Consultative Peace Jirga in June. It marks an important milestone for the Afghan peace and reintegration programme. It is for the Afghan people to shape a political settlement which reflects the needs, culture and aspirations of all the Afghan people. The UK will support a settlement which gives Afghanistan stability and security, is representative, gives no one group disproportionate influence, upholds human rights and the rule of law, and is in accordance with Afghanistan’s constitutional framework. The UK will work with individuals and groups who genuinely share these aims and who accept the conditions laid down by President Karzai’s Government. Insurgents must renounce al-Qaeda, give up armed struggle and work within the Afghan constitutional framework. We consider on its merits any request for the UK to play a role in support of this Afghan-led process. At the same time, ISAF will continue to exert intensifying pressure on the insurgency throughout the country.
Corruption continues to be a serious problem in Afghanistan and there has been only modest progress in anti-corruption efforts. In the past year, the Criminal Justice Task Force convicted 440 people, including serious narcotics dealers and corrupt officials. New mining regulations have been introduced to increase transparency and accountability. The UK is helping the Afghan Government to strengthen accountability and prevent corruption through financial management reforms and to build institutions with the ability to tackle corruption and enforce the rule of law. We are pressing for the anti-corruption monitoring and evaluation committee, which has been appointed, to start work as soon as possible.
In early September, Afghanistan’s central bank was forced to intervene to stabilise the Kabul Bank after allegations of corruption. The Afghan authorities must now work with the IMF to conduct a proper audit and take any necessary action. Weaknesses in the banking regulatory system must be addressed if Afghanistan is to maintain domestic and foreign public confidence.
The Afghan economy grew last year by a rapid 22.5 per cent, and tax revenues have risen sixfold in six years. The IMF predicts that the Government of Afghanistan will be able to cover non-security running costs by 2015 and all running costs by 2023.
The House will recall that, on 21 July, the Secretary of State for International Development announced a £200-million increase in UK funding for Afghanistan to stabilise insecure areas, stimulate the economy and improve essential services. Early progress is being made at the ministry of interior, where the new Minister is keen to develop a more capable and accountable police force which will help sustain the transition of security responsibilities to the Afghan Government.
The deployment of British Armed Forces abroad is one of the gravest responsibilities of government, along with that of protecting the security of Britain’s citizens and territory. In Afghanistan, the two go hand in hand. The Government understand how important it is to retain public confidence in our mission and to ensure democratic scrutiny of it. We will continue to provide regular and frank assessments to the House. Above all, we will do our utmost to ensure that NATO’s strategy in Afghanistan is seen through with rigour and determination and that the extraordinary efforts of so many thousands of our Armed Forces serve to enhance the national security of the United Kingdom”.
That completes the Statement.
Lord Howell of Guildford
My Lords, the noble Baroness has posed a series of extremely well informed and penetrating questions. The words that I seized on in her contribution were that I might have a chance to think about some of them, because instant replies might not be perfect. I will, though, attempt to answer in detail a number of the important points that she has made.
I shall not take those points in order; instead, I shall deal straight away with what I believe to be the central consideration in the devolution of Afghanistan society—the position of women in it. Indeed, this applies to many of the broader political issues and struggles that the world faces today, particularly in central Asia and the Middle East. I agree with her that the position of women is central. Our officials are working closely with the Afghan authorities all the time about this matter. I have some figures here. Some 100 women were involved in the earlier peace jirga. During the election, 402 women stood as candidates, which is quite a lot; 68 seats were guaranteed for women, and one seat was won by a woman despite not being guaranteed. So, things are happening, but we have a long way to go. We are miles from seeing the proper civilised position of men and women in a modern society. We are just not there yet; a huge amount of work lies ahead. I agree with the noble Baroness that it is, above all, by the measure of that that one can decide whether there is success in seeing Afghanistan, which is a noble country that must be able to play a part in the civilised comity of nations, go forward in the right way. That issue is central.
I return to corruption, the various issues about money flying around and recent comments about bags of gold and so on. The key requirement with that sort of issue is transparency and knowing, if money is to be transmitted in this rather primitive way, that it is at least going to good causes and not to evil and secret causes. Transparency should bring those things out.
On the overall corruption situation, though, I cannot be all that cheerful. Tremendous pledges were made at the Kabul conference, to which I referred, about the need for reducing and eliminating corruption, but on the Afghan side, frankly, not much progress has yet been made. The so-called “high office of oversight”, a sort of Afghan anticorruption commission, was set up, but in our view it needs to play a stronger co-ordinating role than it does. On our side, we helped to fund the major crimes task force, which was set up last November, a year ago, and that has had some success and has got some prosecutions and convictions. That is a sign of advance. Then there is the Monitoring and Evaluation Committee which has now been set up, but that, too, needs to get started and really get going. Until these things are operating really effectively, we cannot be at all complacent about the corruption situation.
More generally, perhaps I should have begun by saying that I very strongly welcome the support from not only the noble Baroness, who is deeply experienced in these matters, but her party, for the general trend of what we are trying to do in Afghanistan. This proves that we are in this as a nation and determined to see these matters through.
She asked whether I am confident about the timetable to ensure that there will be no combat troops by 2015. We are confident that things are going the right way, that progress is being made and that this is a realistic timetable. We think that that can be done. There may be training units left in Afghanistan after 2015, but we are absolutely convinced that it makes sense and is strategically correct that by 2015 there will be the withdrawal of all combat troops. We think that that schedule makes a great deal of sense and fits into the whole pattern of the gradual transfer of security and general administration to the Afghan people and the Afghan security and police forces.
As to costs, I can confirm that the £200 million announced by my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for International Development is completely insulated from the cuts. The noble Baroness wanted that assurance and she can have it. Regarding, the cost of the 320 additional support personnel for training and so on, I believe that that cost is separate from the £200 million and will not eat into it. I give her the assurance now and hope that I will not have to eat my words. She is quite right to say that if we start deducting those sorts of salaries and costs, it would rapidly erode the commitment. So I am giving her the assurance that the cost is separate.
She asked a number of questions about the election outcome and the results. I am not sure that I can be as helpful about those. We have been dealing with issues of fraud and we think that overall they do not invalidate the election—although I must confess that the figure of 1 million votes being fraudulent or irregular is formidable. However, we still think that the elections were held in challenging circumstances, although obviously, because of the invalidation of so many votes, the elections were not perfect. Despite all the logistical and security difficulties, it is right that the Afghans have exercised their right to have a say in the future of their country. Exactly how these results are going to come out, provisionally or finally, I cannot tell. So far as I know, no interpretation has been made by psephological wizards in the Foreign Office as to how it will all work out; therefore, I cannot be as helpful to her on that matter.
I hope that I have covered all the questions that she asked. Later on, I shall go over very carefully what she said and if there is any gap in my answers, I will certainly seek to fill it.
Lord Howell of Guildford
On the second point, I beg the noble Baroness's indulgence. Did she ask whether there were serious discussions with the Taliban? I see that she is nodding. Whether discussions should open with the Taliban is a matter for the Afghan authorities. President Karzai has said very clearly that he would contemplate these discussions on certain conditions, which are pretty obvious. He wants to talk to people who are not determined to carry on killing and promoting violence, but who are anxious to see the creation and build-up of a stable and non-violent Afghanistan. If these sorts of conditions are met and sensible discussions can take place, they will. We definitely take the view that it is for the Afghan Government and people to decide how to conduct those sorts of talks. In short, this is an Afghan process. If we are asked to play a role in the process, we will consider it on its merits. I hope that that clarifies the matter.
The £200 million is a DfID programme for the development of a better Afghanistan. It is separate from the military commitments that we are determined to maintain in order to ensure that our troops have the best possible equipment at all times. These are separate matters. The DfID money is for the development and prosperity that we hope in due course to see in Afghanistan. I reiterate the point that the economy is beginning to grow at a very remarkable rate. This is a very encouraging sign amid the continuing difficulties.
Lord Howell of Guildford
I wholly agree with the noble Lord: that must be right. The squeeze is on al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. It has had to move elsewhere and is more dispersed. The process is continuing and to abandon it now by withdrawing would be a regrettable and deplorable act.
Baroness Falkner of Margravine
My Lords, I will pick up on the point made by the noble Baroness, Lady D’Souza, about negotiations with the Taliban. My noble friend's response was somewhat at variance with the Statement, which clearly says that the UK will support a settlement for Afghanistan that meets six qualifying objectives: whether it is representative, upholds human rights and so on. The emphasis is on the UK supporting a settlement. Can my noble friend reassure us that if we are expected to support a settlement, some of the preconditions, such as upholding human rights and giving no one disproportionate influence, will be part of our endorsement of a settlement? It concerns me that we may say that these things need to happen for us to support the settlement, but then allow the Taliban to disregard the High Peace Council and these statements entirely.
My other question concerns media reports that ISAF and NATO are turning to the Russians for logistical support and assistance in Afghanistan. Can my noble friend tell us more about the accuracy of the statements, because this could have a rather perverse outcome on the ground, given Russia's previous history there?
Lord Howell of Guildford
I will tell my noble friend a bit more about the Russians in a moment. First, I will deal with the other question. I do not think that anything that I said is inconsistent with the Statement. I made it clear and repeat, first, that we regard this as an Afghan process and, secondly, that President Karzai has said that he is willing to reach out to all his countrymen, which I suppose must include a moderate Taliban, provided that they meet certain conditions. That obviously means cutting ties with al-Qaeda, ending violence and pursuing their aims peacefully within Afghanistan’s constitutional framework. We will support the President in that. I do not think that there is anything inconsistent in that view. However, the process is in the hands of the Afghan people and one hopes that it will lead to positive results in that some, and perhaps all, of these conditions will be met. However, we shall have to see.
I turn to the Russian position and the rather interesting things that have been said recently about that. First, my noble friend will know that the Russians have already been helping quite substantially. There is nothing new about Russian involvement and assistance in this matter. Perhaps I may give her the details. Russia already provides considerable support to the ISAF mission in Afghanistan, including additional helicopters and basic material supplies for the ISAF forces. The NATO Secretary-General has said that NATO is now in discussions with Russia on increasing that support. A decision on how Russia wishes to do this is obviously a matter for it. I agree with my noble friend that, when one thinks about the historical baggage and the irony of past situations, this is an unfamiliar, new situation. However, when I read about it, it struck me that it confirms that what the world is trying to do in Afghanistan is to eliminate a tremendous danger of instability arising from the al-Qaeda operations, which would affect everyone. Instability and failure in Afghanistan would be just as much a threat to Russia—and, indeed, to China and the great rising powers of Asia—as to Europe and America. Therefore, I was heartened by this support. Provided that it is of the right kind, that we learn the best lessons from it and that we learn from the Russians what lessons they have discovered from their own failures in the past, I think that it is a positive development.
Lord Rowlands
My Lords, can the Minister elaborate a bit further on the statement that the area under the control of the Government in Kabul is increasing? Can he tell us in how many provinces today it can really be said that the Kabul Government’s writ is running and that there is some kind of effective Kabul Government?
Lord Wright of Richmond
My Lords, is the Minister able to tell the House anything about progress or otherwise on controlling the poppy crop?
Lord Howell of Guildford
I cannot say very much, except that the earlier setbacks have to some extent been corrected and I believe that we are making progress. I should like to be able to give the noble Lord a far more detailed reply but I am not in a position to do so at the moment. I shall therefore do it in writing or at some other opportunity.
Lord Hamilton of Epsom
My Lords, can my noble friend confirm that the northern tribes in Afghanistan are getting extremely nervous about the talks with the Taliban? That of course means that the Pashtuns are being brought into the peace process and they are the people against whom, not very long ago, the northern people were involved in a very serious civil war, supported by the West.
Lord Howell of Guildford
It is a yes and no sort of answer. It is certainly true that Taliban extremists have relations with, in particular, the Pathan or Pashtun tribes, but my noble friend must remember that the Afghan security forces consist of 43 per cent Pashtun and 42 per Tajik, who have been at odds in the past but are now working together. Therefore, while inevitably the position of the Pashtun and their readiness to work with the rest of Afghanistan to see a stable state emerge will always be the problem—and has been for 100 or 150 years; there is nothing new about this—the fact is that at the moment many Pashtun are working very well with the Tajiks and the northerners. If it comes to discussions with any kind of Taliban adherents, they will obviously be the ones who are more ready to be integrated and to discuss a positive future and who are less extreme than the inevitable wild small percentage who will want to go on killing to the last.
Lord Judd
My Lords, on talks with the Taliban, there is a very delicate balance to be struck as regards preconditions. Although it is understandable that certain basic preconditions should be laid down, in talks of this kind it is essential to understand that the way to win commitment is in the process of the talks themselves. If you set too big an agenda of preconditions, that will become an obstacle to the process getting off the ground. It is a matter of how you generate the process to produce the commitment that you seek. On the Russian assistance that is now being provided, experience over recent years has, I am afraid, given a good deal of indication, if not evidence, that the Russian methods of operation in military matters are not always quite the same as ours in the commitment to win hearts and minds. Can the noble Lord provide firm reassurances that anything that the Russians do will not become counterproductive in this context?
Lord Howell of Guildford
My Lords, I can certainly assure the noble Lord on that. We would watch that very carefully indeed. It is difficult to separate the history from the view of post-Soviet Russia today. Russia is our friend, with whom we seek to have good relations, but the invasion of Afghanistan was a very brutal affair. Although some techniques used by the Russians were apparently rather good on the ground, there were brutalities as well. That is why many of the mothers of Russian soldiers demanded that their sons came home and got out of Afghanistan, which led to many other consequences.
On the negotiations and how they are handled, the noble Lord speaks with great experience of such situations. It is absolutely right that we have to achieve a balancing act in any negotiations of this kind as we come out of the violent phase and into the peace phase. My noble friend behind me has reminded us of the concerns of the northern peoples, particularly the Tajiks, and of the ancient jealousies between the different groups. All those things have to be balanced in any talks with the Taliban if they come about and if President Karzai is able to fulfil his willingness to reach out to all his countrymen, as he says.
Lord Hannay of Chiswick
My Lords, I thank the Minister for the Statement and for the regularity of Statements to come. Does he agree that the Statement said not one word about the regional dimension of the Afghan problem and that that dimension—the attitude of the neighbours of Afghanistan—will become increasingly important as we move towards 2015? The willingness of the neighbours to commit themselves in binding legal obligations not to interfere will be one part of securing a future Afghanistan that is not prey to its neighbours, whether Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan or the other neighbours. Could he say something on that aspect and whether he agrees that, in future reports on Afghanistan, it would be helpful if the Government could say something about the effort that they are putting in to building up a structure around Afghanistan in which a post-NATO Afghanistan could live in tranquillity?
Lord Howell of Guildford
My Lords, I must agree with the experienced noble Lord about the regional significance. On how you get that into a Statement on the regular reports on Afghanistan, I am not so sure. I can certainly say, here and now, that we recognise that the region has an important role to play in supporting Afghanistan and in facing all sorts of major challenges, including combating extremism, terrorism, illegal migration, narcotics and many other things. We welcome the fact that Afghanistan is actively seeking to support its bilateral relations in the region; indeed, regional co-operation was a major theme of the London and Kabul conferences. I cannot for a moment disagree with the noble Lord’s point that this is part of the jigsaw. We must have effective regional support. The problems that are encountered across the Durand line—the Pashtun do not even recognise some of the international boundaries—the problems that Pakistan, which we need to give all the help that we can, has faced and the continuing malign policies of Iran are all very much part of the situation and all need to be examined. I will suggest to my right honourable friends that they elaborate on that in future Statements, although it would make these Statements even longer than they are already.
Lord King of Bridgwater
My Lords, does my noble friend recognise that the Statement that he has made is very grave? The whole House has listened in a suitably sombre atmosphere to the account of the situation after—where are we now?—nine years, after 341 of our soldiers have died and a considerable number have been very seriously injured, and in which we have faced what in military terms might be described as a good deal of mission creep. We went to expel al-Qaeda and make sure that Afghanistan never again became a base for terrorism on a global scale. We have now picked up some enormously worthwhile objectives: the end of corruption in Afghanistan; full human rights for women in Afghanistan; the end of the drug trade, if possible; and proper electoral practices being fully observed. As one reads across that list, one realises the challenges that we now face. As the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, said, certain neighbours are not interested in ISAF and NATO succeeding in their current ventures—the activities of Iran come into question. Against that background, are not the Government, supported by the Opposition, absolutely right that, as time is not on our side, we must get maximum momentum now for Afghanisation of the programme to get properly established at the earliest possible date?
Lord Howell of Guildford
I am absolutely sure that that assessment is expert, well informed and right. It is our desire and intention to maintain momentum on a number of fronts. My noble friend talks about mission creep. In a sense, the narrow and single objective to start with after 9/11, which was that somehow al-Qaeda was to be crushed and Osama bin Laden captured from his hiding place, has widened into a much bigger issue. Of course, the context has widened as well. We have seen the growth of jihadist, extremist Islam; we have seen it spread into other countries. We have seen difficulties in neighbouring countries. We have seen the rise of obduracy in Iran. All those matters have unfolded while we are struggling. That merely confirms that in the 21st century, if we want a civilised, global and stable society, we will face many such struggles in future. They will not be over quickly; they will take a long time.
Viscount Slim
My Lords, I welcome what the Minister said and I was very heartened by what the noble Baroness said. The noble Lord, Lord Hannay, is quite right: there is a big tribal problem in this area. However, if the Minister cared to go to Quetta and had a cup of coffee in one of the many cafes there—as he well knows, it is a Taliban rest camp—he would find that the cafe talk of the Taliban and al-Qaeda is, “These chaps talk about a surge. These chaps then talk about leaving. We’ve won”. That is very dangerous when we are talking about discussions with the Taliban or al-Qaeda. Is it not wise to get them on two knees—or certainly one—before we have those talks? We have examples in the Lebanon and in Gaza of what happens: Hezbollah and Hamas have got closely, cunningly integrated in government, cabinet, parliament and the workings of the city and the surrounding countryside. Their influence is immense. This will be the aim of the Taliban and al-Qaeda if they get their hands in any way on the Afghan Government, weak and corrupt as they are. This happy talk about, “Let’s all get round the table”, is very dangerous for ISAF, NATO and Britain. I would like to see full confidence that ISAF, Britain, America and the other countries are going to sort these chaps out—that we are going to win and only then will we talk. With everyone opening their arms and saying “Come and talk”, we are walking straight into a great problem for five to 10 years in the future.
Lord Howell of Guildford
I cannot for a moment question the wisdom and experience behind that either, except to say that one talks about winning and then, as we learnt in Iraq, one needs to talk about how the win is secured. As the former President Bush found in his famous observations, to win in the short term is something that can apparently be done on the surface. However, a win in the long term means that as we are, we hope, a civilised 21st-century globe, the nations within it— including our own—cannot afford to have a poisoning influence at the centre of things. Whether we like it or not, while we must be as forceful as possible in the military suppression of the violence and extremism, there will, in the end, have to be a state created in which those who may have been involved with or even inclined to support the violence and rebellion of insurgents in the first place have to start playing their role as proper citizens. They will have to be included, so I half accept what the noble Viscount says, but the obvious strategy is to press ahead with what we are doing. We are confident that we are making progress. Beyond that progress lies the possibility of politics and of social, civic and economic development. Then we will have a world in which Afghanistan will no longer be the appalling headache that it is now.