Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the economic impact of the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) (No.4) Regulations 2020.

As the Chancellor said in his letter to the TSC on 4 November, HM Treasury does not prepare formal forecasts for the UK economy, which are the responsibility of the independent OBR. They will publish their next forecast on 25 November.

In addition, within their statutory mandates, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) produce analysis which reflect their independent judgements regarding the impact of Covid-19 on the likely path of the economy. They updated their projections in their Monetary Policy Report published on 5 November. This reflected UK restrictions announced up to 31 October, including “heightened England-wide measures for the period 5 November to 2 December”. In this scenario, GDP was revised downwards and is now expected to contract by 2% in Q4 reflecting the impact of stricter measures to control Covid-19.