Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the impact of the increase in employer National Insurance contributions on the unemployment rate; and whether they will deposit any modelling carried out as part of that assessment in the Library of the House.

A detailed assessment of this policy has been published by HMRC in their Tax Information and Impact Note. The TIIN sets out the impact of the policy on the exchequer, the economic impacts of the policy, and the impacts on individuals, businesses, and civil society organisations, as well as an overview of the equality impacts.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published their March 2025 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO), which sets out a detailed forecast of the economy and public finances.

With all policies considered, the EFO forecasts the unemployment rate to remain low throughout the forecast period and fall to 4.1% in 2029.