Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask His Majesty's Government what estimate they have made for the period of 1 January to 30 June of (1) the number of pupils who have transferred from independent to state schools due to the levying of VAT on independent school fees, (2) the cost of these extra pupils to state schools, and (3) the net revenue, setting VAT inputs against outputs, collected by the tax from independent school fees.

This question was answered on 24th July 2025
VAT on private schools is forecast to raise £460m in 2024/25, rising to £1.7bn in 2029/30. Evidence so far, including the Department for Education’s annual school census, shows pupils numbers remain firmly within historical patterns seen for over twenty years and broader demographic trends.