Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the growth in demand for health services caused by the increase in the population of the United Kingdom in the past five financial years.

The effects of population increases and wider demographic change on the demand for services are analysed through the use of age cost curves and Office for National Statistics population statistics. Age cost curves estimate the demand for services for a person of a particular age and characteristics. The Department uses these along with bottom-up estimates to understand how population change will affect the National Health Service.

These show, as outlined in the 10-Year Health Plan, that demographic change and population ageing are set to increase demand on an already stretched health service.

In the short term, to respond to these pressures, we have seen the recent Spending Review announce that annual NHS day-to-day spending will increase by £29 billion in real terms, a £53 billion cash increase, by 2028/29 compared to 2023/24. This will take the NHS resource budget to £226 billion by 2028/29, which is the equivalent to a 3% average annual real terms growth rate over the Spending Review period. The Spending Review also announced a £2.3 billion real terms increase, a £4 billion cash increase, in the Department’s annual capital budgets from 2023/24 to 2029/30. This will deliver the largest ever health capital budget, representing a more than 20% real terms increase by the end of the Spending Review period.

In the longer term, the 10-Year Health Plan also outlines that we must bend the demand curve, through a vision for a new model of care predicated on the three shifts, from hospital to community, from analogue to digital, and from sickness to prevention. This will help secure the financial sustainability of the NHS and make it fit for the future.