Question to the Cabinet Office:

To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the potential impacts of the declining marriage rate and birth rate in the United Kingdom.

The information requested falls under the remit of the UK Statistics Authority.

A response to the Hon gentleman’s Parliamentary Question of 11th June is attached.

Dear Lord Jackson,

As Acting National Statistician, I am responding to your Parliamentary Questions asking what steps are being taken to expedite the timely publication of marriage and divorce statistics by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) (HL8355), and what assessment has been made of the potential impacts of the declining marriage rate and birth rate in the United Kingdom (HL8356).

The latest published statistics on marriages[1] and divorces[2] in England and Wales are for 2022. Divorces and Dissolutions in England and Wales, 2023[3] will be published on 2 July 2025. Marriages in England and Wales, 2023[4] is provisionally scheduled for publication in November 2025, alongside Civil partnerships in England and Wales, 2023[5].

The Marriages, Civil Partnerships, Marriages and Deaths (Registration Etc.) Act 2019 (which came into force on 4 May 2021) has resulted in a new electronic registration system replacing the paper marriage register. This has improved the timeliness of the submission of religious marriage entries to the General Register Office (GRO) who in turn supply these to the ONS. Following this change to the way marriages are recorded, the ONS have been working to improve the timeliness of publication of marriage statistics and to consolidate the release of marriage and civil partnership statistics to improve accessibility for users and to bring the reference periods in line.

Marriage, civil partnership and divorce statistics incorporate rates as part of the publication; these rates use population estimates by marital status[6] as denominators so these estimates need to be available prior to calculation. The ONS aims to balance the need for timely legal partnership statistics with the timing of publication, and revisions to, population estimates by marital status in order to provide the most accurate rates possible. Estimates for 2023 and 2024 are provisionally scheduled to be published in November 2025.

The ONS does not assess the potential impacts of the declining marriage rate and birth rate in the United Kingdom.

However, in our National Population Projections[7] we analyse past trends in fertility rates to produce a projection of future fertility for the UK. These projections are widely used to support policy making. The numbers of people in each life stage are important when considering dependency ratios, which inform government financial planning. A common measure is the old-age-dependency ratio (OADR), which is the number of people of pensionable age for every 1,000 people of working age. It is projected that OADR for the UK will increase from 278 in mid-2022 to 289 in mid-2032, reaching 302 by mid-2047.

The ONS has published a UK population projection explorer tool[8] which allows users to vary the assumptions for future fertility, net migration and life expectancy to see the impact on the size and age structure of the UK population over the next 50 years.

The ONS publishes marriage and divorce statistics for England and Wales only. National Records for Scotland (NRS)[9] and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA[10]) are responsible for the publication of marriage and divorce statistics for Scotland and Northern Ireland respectively.

Yours sincerely,

Emma Rourke

[1] Marriages in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

[2] Divorces in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

[3] Divorces and Dissolutions in England and Wales: 2023 - Office for National Statistics

[4] Marriages in England and Wales: 2023 - Office for National Statistics

[5] Civil partnerships in England and Wales: 2023 - Office for National Statistics

[6] Population estimates by marital status and living arrangements, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

[7] National population projections - Office for National Statistics

[8] UK population projection explorer - Office for National Statistics

[9] National Records of Scotland (NRS)

[10] Home | Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency