Question to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs:

To ask His Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of the average temperature increase in the UK over the past 50 years; and what estimate have they made of further warming over the next 50 years.

Global average temperatures are now 1.3°C above preindustrial temperatures, based on a 20-year average, centred on present-day by including 10 years from the past and projections for 10 years into the future.

The UK Climate Projections, produced by the Met Office on behalf of government, provide information on future climate for a range of potential climate scenarios. These scenarios underpin the evidence used in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA).

The assessment of risks and opportunities in CCRA3 was based on global warming scenarios of 2ºC and 4ºC above preindustrial temperatures being reached by 2100. The Government’s climate adaptation plans, as set out in the third National Adaptation Programme, published in 2023, follow the advice of the Climate Change Committee to plan for 2ºC. The Government remains flexible and responsive in our approach, assessing for different scenarios.