Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask His Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of the number of people in England under the age of 18 who regularly used (1) a vape, (2) an e-cigarette, or (3) smoked tobacco, in each of the years 2022, 2023 and 2024.

Tobacco is the single most important entirely preventable cause of ill health, disability, and death in this country, and is responsible for 80,000 deaths in the United Kingdom each year. The majority of smokers start in their youth and are then addicted for life. More than four in five smokers start before the age of 20 years old.

As a result of Government action, smoking rates have declined in all ages since the 1970s, but there is still much further to go. Legislation has been an important driver of this decline, including raising the age of sale for smoking from 16 to 18 years old, which reduced prevalence in this age group by 30%.

The available data does not allow us to estimate the number of people under 18 years old that smoke and vape in England, and the data that is available is not comparable as it covers different age groups and countries. However, using the NHS Smoking Drink and Drugs survey data, we estimate that the number of 11 to 15 year olds regularly smoking in England is 42,000 in 2023. We do not have similar data for years 2022 and 2024. Using the Action on Smoking and Health GB survey data, we estimate that the number of children aged 11 to 17 years old that regularly use a vape in Great Britain, which can also be called an e-cigarette, is 169,000 in 2022, 206,000 in 2023, and 234,000 in 2024.

Our modelling of the estimated impact of the Smokefree Generation (SFG) policy on smoking rates is presented in the Tobacco and Vapes Bill Impact Assessment. In the central scenario we modelled, smoking prevalence among those aged 18 years old and over is estimated to fall from 11.6% in 2023 to 1.6% in 2056. In terms of the number of smokers, we estimate this is equivalent to approximately 700,000 smokers aged 18 years old and over in 2056 when SFG is implemented, compared to approximately 2.4 million smokers aged 18 years old and over if not implemented.