Question to the HM Treasury:

To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the combined economic cost to the UK of Brexit and COVID-19.

HM Treasury does not produce forecasts of the economy or public finances.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is responsible for producing forecasts of the economy and public finances. Their forecasts incorporate their assessment of the economic and fiscal impact of EU exit.

On 14 April the OBR published a reference scenario assessing the potential impact of coronavirus. In this scenario GDP is assumed to fall by 35 per cent in the second quarter of 2020 before recovering in subsequent quarters. The OBR note that the Government’s policy response should help limit the long-term damage to the economy and public finances.

The economic impact of our relationship with the EU is subject to thriving public debate amongst analysts. The specifics of EU exit depend on the outcome of detailed negotiations. We will continue to keep Parliament informed with appropriate analysis at appropriate times in a way that does not impede our ability to strike the best deal for the UK.